Democratic Turkey Is the Template for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

The Great Arab Revolt of 2011 has moved swiftly from the peaceful overthrow of autocrats in the nation‐states of Tunisia and Egypt to brutal repression in the tribal societies of Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. Meanwhile, the wired youth bulge of the Middle East that brought change is dissipating into an impotent diaspora while the organized interests of the old regimes and the once‐suppressed Islamists charge ahead to power. This section examines the revolt, the reaction and the power struggles in its aftermath.     

Health care technology assessment: A policy planning tool

Health care technology has developed more rapidly than have the tools to aid decisions regarding that technology's assessment, acquisition and allocation. This article proposes theoretical and technological bases for formulating and analyzing policies for technology assessment. A computerized procedure for measurement and reporting of judgmental sources of technology assessment is presented, accompanied by a pilot study illustrating how the procedure can be used for both research and practical applications.     

2011,埃及的政治继承与民主之变——从宪政改革到政治革命

作为在中东、阿拉伯世界和非洲最重要的大国之一,埃及的政治继承及民主化问题备受关注。迫于国内反政府力量的逐渐扩大及美国的民主化压力,穆巴拉克从2005年开始启动以宪政为核心的政治改革。但是由于长期积累的诸多问题未能在短时期得到根本解决,穆巴拉克最终没有在埃及建立起民主化制度,其政权在2011年初被大规模群众性抗议所推翻。在未来的过渡时期,军方能否顺利还政于民,穆斯林兄弟会能否乘势而上,埃及政局的走向充满了不确定性。     

Poverty,resource distribution and security: The impact of new agricultural technology in rural Bangladesh

Recent studies have examined the relationship between agrarian change and rural poverty in LDCs concentrating on either exchange or non‐exchange income. Neither approach employed independently is, however, adequate. Bangladeshi evidence is presented of growing concentration of control of land, of components of new agricultural technology and of ancillary resources. Increasing incidence of landlessness and near landlessness has resulted in greater dependence on wage employment for subsistence by the rural poor. It is argued that the non‐exchange component of income is important in slack periods and assumes even greater significance in abnormal years when both real wage and employment fall sharply. With rapid population growth, depletion of natural resources and greater penetration of technological and market forces, the cushioning effect of access to natural resources, in adverse circumstances, on the rural poor has become more limited and their income security has been undermined.     

Modernization from above versus reform from below: U.S. policy toward Latin American agricultural development

This article distinguishes two tendencies in United States policy towards Latin American agriculture: a redistributionist tendency, favouring the break‐up of large private estates into small peasant plots; and a productionist tendency, favouring technical efficiency on existing holdings as the key to successful development. It is shown that this latter tendency has come increasingly to prevail in U.S. Government circles over the past decade, a shift in policy which is assumed to reflect political as well as strictly economic considerations. The endorsement of land reform, at least on the level of declared policy, in the early years of the Kennedy administration, has been followed by a reappraisal which brings U.S. policy more in line with the preferences of the large landowners who are among the most reliable political allies of the United States. (Ed.)     

Transnational policy networks and the European Union's energy policy

The goal of this article is to critically examine the engagement between the European Union (EU) and a transnational policy network (TPN) that deals with an issue that has grown in importance in the architecture of the EU's energy policy: fracking. The author argues that successful engagement between the EU and networks on shale gas was facilitated by the fact that the TPN or the members of the TPN were in possession of technical and scientific information that is highly needed by institutions in Brussels. Also, the article reveals that the fact that EU energy insecurity has been high on the EU agenda increased EU's interest in actors that could provide vital insights into potential panaceas and palliatives to energy insecurity.     

Hispanics and foreign policy

Difficulties abound in any attempt to generalize about the role of ethnicity in foreign policy-making in the United States. First, some ethnic groups have become more iduential than others. Second, those that have succeeded have seen their influence rise and fall, depending on multiple factors and circumstances. Still other groups, despite their increasing numbers, have yet to attempt to influence foreign policy.

The Hispanic experience in iniluencing foreign policy belongs to the last category. Several factors account for the limited Hispanic influence in foreign policy, such as their fragmentation and their lack of clout in domestic issues. Other factors are more specifically political and have to do with the fact that active involvement by Hispanics in politics has yet to come.

The end of the Cold War has displaced security issues from the top of the foreign policy agenda of the United States. The overarching rationale granted by anti-communism is no longer available.

Simultaneously, the Summit of the Americas, of December 1994, has recognized that economic issues, such as trade and investment, have gained ascendancy in the Hemispheric agenda.

The primacy of economics in Hemispheric relations furnishes an opportunity for Hispanic businesses to participate more actively in trade and investment relations in the Hemisphere.

However, as revealed by the debate on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), trade and investment have proven to be very divisive issues for Hispanics. Consequently, the Hispanic business community, particularly those small and medium size companies that are already active in international trade and investment, will have to act deliberately to benefit fiom the opportunities that are emerging.     

No miracles here: Trade policy,fiscal policy and economic growth

In this paper we consider whether the rate of growth following trade liberalisation differs significantly from growth in other developing countries. We find that it does not. Given this result we explore whether these growth effects are offset by changes in other policy variables, namely changes in fiscal policy. Governments increase welfare spending as a response to greater exposure to international trade. We find evidence that countries that liberalise their trade regimes increase their spending on welfare but not other forms of expenditure. However, once we control for the effects of fiscal policy, trade liberalisation still has no growth effects.     

Economic policy elites and democratization

Is the authoritarian potential of policy elites a mortal threat to the consolidation of democracy in Latin America? This article suggests that in the context of democratic transitions, significant variations may exist in the performance of technocratic roles. In most countries in the region, elected governments faced the crisis of the 1980s by retaining markedly technocratic and exclusionary styles of policy-making. In Chile, a highly technocratic form of authoritarianism was succeeded by a novel pattern of pragmatic cooperation between technical and political elites. Democratic institutions were reestablished while a strong economic team enforced coherence and continuity in economic policy. Historical and institutional factors are used to show that Chile may now be nearer the democratic pole than other “hybrid” democratic-authoritarian regimes in the region.     

Population growth and foreign policy

Australian foreign policy is examined in light of the population issue and its relationships to its developing Asian neighbors. Rapid population growth has been a 20th-century phenomenon. In the ESCAP region, almost all governments are anxious to reduce growth rates and welcome international assistance for population programs. The motivation of these governments seems to be both political and economic. Asian countries do not share the view expressed at Bucharest by Latin American and African representatives that high population growth rates are not a problem. Results of national family planning programs in 16 developing Asian countries are assessed. Major fertility decline has only occurred so far in the most prosperous of these countries. Future fertility trends are hard to predict. Present inadequate knowledge of the determinants of human fertility and limited knowledge regarding fertility limitation techniques hamper progress in population reduction. Australia has aided these countries in demographic training and data collection. For both economic and humanitarian reasons, this aid should be extended to program implementation.     

日本政府开发援助及其外交策略

2008年是“日本湄公河交流年”。新年伊始，日本便决，定在1月16日召开的首届日本——湄公河流域国家外长会议上向泰国、越南、缅甸、老挝和柬埔寨五国提供约2000万美元的无偿援助，旨在构建“东西走廊”物流网络。据悉，5月份日本将在横滨市举办第四届非洲开发会议，届时将讨论有关非洲开发的具体事宜：日本政府的上述举动令人关注。     

New federalism and health policy

The making of health policy in the United States is a complex process that involves the private and public sectors, including multiple levels of government. Five characteristics of the policy process are identified, which establish the means by which policies are formulated and which affect the nature of the policies that emerge. These characteristics include (1) the relationship of the government to the private sector; (2) the distribution of authority and responsibility within a federal system of government; (3) the relationship between policy formation and implementation; (4) a pluralistic ideology as the basis of politics; and (5) incrementalism as the strategy for reform. The article focuses on the impact on health policy of the distribution of authority and responsibility within the federal system, particularly the impact of new federalism policies as they emerged during the past decade. The effects of dual federalism, cooperative federalism, creative federalism, and new federalism are examined in relation to health policies. The article concludes with an examination of the challenge to long-established values and health policies posed by new federalism.