Democratic Turkey Is the Template for Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

The Great Arab Revolt of 2011 has moved swiftly from the peaceful overthrow of autocrats in the nation‐states of Tunisia and Egypt to brutal repression in the tribal societies of Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen. Meanwhile, the wired youth bulge of the Middle East that brought change is dissipating into an impotent diaspora while the organized interests of the old regimes and the once‐suppressed Islamists charge ahead to power. This section examines the revolt, the reaction and the power struggles in its aftermath.     

Health care technology assessment: A policy planning tool

Health care technology has developed more rapidly than have the tools to aid decisions regarding that technology's assessment, acquisition and allocation. This article proposes theoretical and technological bases for formulating and analyzing policies for technology assessment. A computerized procedure for measurement and reporting of judgmental sources of technology assessment is presented, accompanied by a pilot study illustrating how the procedure can be used for both research and practical applications.     

Poverty,resource distribution and security: The impact of new agricultural technology in rural Bangladesh

Recent studies have examined the relationship between agrarian change and rural poverty in LDCs concentrating on either exchange or non‐exchange income. Neither approach employed independently is, however, adequate. Bangladeshi evidence is presented of growing concentration of control of land, of components of new agricultural technology and of ancillary resources. Increasing incidence of landlessness and near landlessness has resulted in greater dependence on wage employment for subsistence by the rural poor. It is argued that the non‐exchange component of income is important in slack periods and assumes even greater significance in abnormal years when both real wage and employment fall sharply. With rapid population growth, depletion of natural resources and greater penetration of technological and market forces, the cushioning effect of access to natural resources, in adverse circumstances, on the rural poor has become more limited and their income security has been undermined.     

2011,埃及的政治继承与民主之变——从宪政改革到政治革命

作为在中东、阿拉伯世界和非洲最重要的大国之一,埃及的政治继承及民主化问题备受关注。迫于国内反政府力量的逐渐扩大及美国的民主化压力,穆巴拉克从2005年开始启动以宪政为核心的政治改革。但是由于长期积累的诸多问题未能在短时期得到根本解决,穆巴拉克最终没有在埃及建立起民主化制度,其政权在2011年初被大规模群众性抗议所推翻。在未来的过渡时期,军方能否顺利还政于民,穆斯林兄弟会能否乘势而上,埃及政局的走向充满了不确定性。     

Modernization from above versus reform from below: U.S. policy toward Latin American agricultural development

This article distinguishes two tendencies in United States policy towards Latin American agriculture: a redistributionist tendency, favouring the break‐up of large private estates into small peasant plots; and a productionist tendency, favouring technical efficiency on existing holdings as the key to successful development. It is shown that this latter tendency has come increasingly to prevail in U.S. Government circles over the past decade, a shift in policy which is assumed to reflect political as well as strictly economic considerations. The endorsement of land reform, at least on the level of declared policy, in the early years of the Kennedy administration, has been followed by a reappraisal which brings U.S. policy more in line with the preferences of the large landowners who are among the most reliable political allies of the United States. (Ed.)     

Hispanics and foreign policy

Difficulties abound in any attempt to generalize about the role of ethnicity in foreign policy-making in the United States. First, some ethnic groups have become more iduential than others. Second, those that have succeeded have seen their influence rise and fall, depending on multiple factors and circumstances. Still other groups, despite their increasing numbers, have yet to attempt to influence foreign policy.

The Hispanic experience in iniluencing foreign policy belongs to the last category. Several factors account for the limited Hispanic influence in foreign policy, such as their fragmentation and their lack of clout in domestic issues. Other factors are more specifically political and have to do with the fact that active involvement by Hispanics in politics has yet to come.

The end of the Cold War has displaced security issues from the top of the foreign policy agenda of the United States. The overarching rationale granted by anti-communism is no longer available.

Simultaneously, the Summit of the Americas, of December 1994, has recognized that economic issues, such as trade and investment, have gained ascendancy in the Hemispheric agenda.

The primacy of economics in Hemispheric relations furnishes an opportunity for Hispanic businesses to participate more actively in trade and investment relations in the Hemisphere.

However, as revealed by the debate on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), trade and investment have proven to be very divisive issues for Hispanics. Consequently, the Hispanic business community, particularly those small and medium size companies that are already active in international trade and investment, will have to act deliberately to benefit fiom the opportunities that are emerging.     

Economic policy elites and democratization

Is the authoritarian potential of policy elites a mortal threat to the consolidation of democracy in Latin America? This article suggests that in the context of democratic transitions, significant variations may exist in the performance of technocratic roles. In most countries in the region, elected governments faced the crisis of the 1980s by retaining markedly technocratic and exclusionary styles of policy-making. In Chile, a highly technocratic form of authoritarianism was succeeded by a novel pattern of pragmatic cooperation between technical and political elites. Democratic institutions were reestablished while a strong economic team enforced coherence and continuity in economic policy. Historical and institutional factors are used to show that Chile may now be nearer the democratic pole than other “hybrid” democratic-authoritarian regimes in the region.     

New federalism and health policy

The making of health policy in the United States is a complex process that involves the private and public sectors, including multiple levels of government. Five characteristics of the policy process are identified, which establish the means by which policies are formulated and which affect the nature of the policies that emerge. These characteristics include (1) the relationship of the government to the private sector; (2) the distribution of authority and responsibility within a federal system of government; (3) the relationship between policy formation and implementation; (4) a pluralistic ideology as the basis of politics; and (5) incrementalism as the strategy for reform. The article focuses on the impact on health policy of the distribution of authority and responsibility within the federal system, particularly the impact of new federalism policies as they emerged during the past decade. The effects of dual federalism, cooperative federalism, creative federalism, and new federalism are examined in relation to health policies. The article concludes with an examination of the challenge to long-established values and health policies posed by new federalism.     

Population growth and foreign policy

Australian foreign policy is examined in light of the population issue and its relationships to its developing Asian neighbors. Rapid population growth has been a 20th-century phenomenon. In the ESCAP region, almost all governments are anxious to reduce growth rates and welcome international assistance for population programs. The motivation of these governments seems to be both political and economic. Asian countries do not share the view expressed at Bucharest by Latin American and African representatives that high population growth rates are not a problem. Results of national family planning programs in 16 developing Asian countries are assessed. Major fertility decline has only occurred so far in the most prosperous of these countries. Future fertility trends are hard to predict. Present inadequate knowledge of the determinants of human fertility and limited knowledge regarding fertility limitation techniques hamper progress in population reduction. Australia has aided these countries in demographic training and data collection. For both economic and humanitarian reasons, this aid should be extended to program implementation.     

日本政府开发援助及其外交策略

2008年是“日本湄公河交流年”。新年伊始，日本便决，定在1月16日召开的首届日本——湄公河流域国家外长会议上向泰国、越南、缅甸、老挝和柬埔寨五国提供约2000万美元的无偿援助，旨在构建“东西走廊”物流网络。据悉，5月份日本将在横滨市举办第四届非洲开发会议，届时将讨论有关非洲开发的具体事宜：日本政府的上述举动令人关注。     

Rural poverty and agricultural performance in India

This paper examines time series evidence on rural poverty over the past two decades. The time series shows that the incidence of poverty fluctuates in response to variations in real agricultural output per head, but there is no significant time trend. There is a statistically significant inverse relationship between rural poverty and agricultural performance for India as a whole, suggesting that agricultural growth by itself tends to reduce the incidence of poverty. The analysis for individual states presents a somewhat different picture. The inverse relationship between output per head and rural poverty is observed in several states but there is also evidence that there are processes at work which tend to increase the incidence of poverty, independently of variations in agricultural output per head.     

T2 Transfer of high technology from the united states to the soviet bloc: A public policy issue

The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and the Soviet-bloc states are engaged in an extensive effort in the legal as well as illegal acquisition of United States high technology. This study examines the importance to the U. S. of such losses; the manner in which the Soviets acquire our high technology; benefits of such acquisitions to the Soviet Union; steps being taken by the U. S. to reduce its loss of high technology; and the author's recommended course of action to reduce high-technology transfer.

The transfer of U. S. high technology to the Soviet Union is recognized as one of our most serious national security problems. This problem is complicated, however, when considering our free enterprise system and the need to promote free trade. On the one hand high technology represents a substantial share of our current exports, while on the other, the United States has relied on technological superiority to offset the Soviet-bloc edge in military might. An equilibrium must be established to ensure protection of both economic and national defense interests of the United States.

The Soviet effort to acquire U. S. high technology is broad based, supported by the Military-Industrial Commission and State Committee for Science and Technology (in legal acquisitions), as well as the Soviet Intelligence Service (in illegal acquisitions). Such techniques as review of U. S. publications, U. S.-Soviet exchange programs, as well as extensive clandestine intelligence operations, are utilized by the Soviets in obtaining our high technology.

The Soviet acquisition of U. S. high technology has greatly benefited the USSR. This is clearly seen in U. S. Government estimates that the Soviets may have saved as much as $100 million in research and development of advanced microcircuitry. Several examples of savings to the Soviet defense industry as a result of high-technology transfer are elucidated in this work. In short, the Soviets have been able to save billions of defense dollars by utilizing proven U. S. designs with none of the risks experienced in the research and development of this technology.

Because of the paradoxical nature of this question of high-technology transfer, U. S. Congressional reaction to renewal of the Export Administration Act of 1979 has been mixed. On one side of the aisle, there has been support of looser controls on high-technology exports to promote free trade. On the other side of the aisle, tighter controls on such exports have been supported to protect critical U. S. high technology. At the same time, the U. S. Government has undertaken steps to strengthen its agreement with the COCOM nations. Another effort undertaken by the U. S. and other Western governments is the expulsion of accused Soviet spies from various Soviet diplomatic establishments (at least 67 Soviets from January to May, 1983). Additionally, the U. S. Department of State, Defense, Commerce, and Customs, as well as the American Intelligence Community, have undertaken efforts to reduce high-technology transfer to the Soviet Union. U. S. industry has attempted to increase security of high-technology; however, because of the Defense Investigative Service's workload, the quality of background investigations on individuals, working in firms handling defense contracts, has suffered.

The author recommends establishment of an ad-hoc matrix organization to integrate the resources and efforts of all of the federal agencies, as well as industry, in controlling the transfer of U. S. high technology to the Soviet Union and Soviet-bloc states. The author also includes recommendations as contained in various Congressional bills. The author's suggestions are made with a view toward creating a balance necessary to the protection of our free market system and protection of the national defense of the United States.