A cross‐section analysis of food insecurity in developing countries: Its magnitude and sources

Short‐term instability in food supplies continues to be a severe problem for many developing countries. From the viewpoint of an individual country, this problem arises primarily from fluctuations in domestic food production and in foreign exchange availability. The present paper aims to establish the magnitude and seriousness of the problem in a sample of 50 food deficit countries. It also aims to broaden the scope of discussion of the food security problem by taking into account the possibility that food insecurity may manifest itself in a country in a variety of ways which depend in part on the manner in which the domestic authorities respond to periodic shortfalls in food supplies.     

Capabilities,well‐being and human development: A survey

Economists have moved away from thinking of development in terms of growth of per capita GNP. The most influential alternative conception of development ‐ due to Amartya Sen ‐ involves judging the quality of life in terms of capabilities and viewing development as a ‘capability expansion’. This article argues that Sen's approach is an inadequate account of development. It is further argued that other versions of the approach ‐ involving the work of Nussbaum and Frankfurt ‐ also fail. The most promising foundation for an account of human development derives from James Griffin's recent writings on well‐being.     

Misrecognitions and missed opportunities: post‐structuralism and the practice of development

Over the past 20 years post‐structuralist scholars have produced critiques of the field of development. In some circles it is now quite broadly accepted that this approach is futile and that we ought to move into a ‘post‐discourse’ era. By way of counterpoint, this paper argues that such exchanges are based on misrecognitions whose acceptance forecloses possibilities that both critics and their detractors would welcome. The paper is broken into two sections. The first engages problems ascribed to post‐structuralist critiques that seem to have been particularly successful in discouraging further engagement. The second explores three aspects of a single moment of post‐structuralist thought that have been obscured by current debate. Engaging these aspects, while bringing difficulties of its own, may secure conditions necessary for the emergence of the sorts of partnerships often claimed as necessary both by developers and by their post‐structuralist critics.     

The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis

Abstract

The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving average model. The fit of this model was tested both by statistical diagnostics and the accuracy of predictions based on this model compared to actual occurrence. However, the series of victimization rates did not reveal any predictability aside from the overall trend of an increasing level of victimization. The findings of the study are discussed by two approaches: the contagiousness of terrorism and the concept of media‐oriented terrorism. These two concepts, separately or combined, may explain some of the patterns revealed in the occurrence of terrorist events. However, they both highlight the part played by the mass media, either as a target for publicity‐seeking terrorists or as an influential factor in the process of contagion.     

Fertility,development, and family planning, 1970–1980: An analysis of cases weighted by population

A series of related studies (Freedman and Berelson, 1976; Mauldin and Berelson, 1978; and Tsui and Bogue, 1978) have presented empirical findings based on multiple regression analysis which indicated that family planning program effort (FP), as measured by an index developed by Lapham and Mauldin (1972), was the single most important predictor of (or influence on) fertility reduction in less-developed countries (LDCs). The basic results have been confirmed repeatedly. A more extensive data set was used to extend the analysis to a comparison of results of corss-sectional models circa 1970 and 1980. The study builds upon the results of past studies yet differs from them in several ways. All the variables in the present study were measured at 2 points in time: circa 1970 and circa 1980, allowing a comparison between cross-sectional models for 1970 and 1980. Among the cases included in this multivariate analysis was China, a country usually excluded for lack of data. The analysis was extend to 85 countries. Cases were weighted by population, having the effect of increasing the impact of larger countries such as India and China on the outcome of the analysis. Total fertility rate (TFR) was used as an indicator of fertility. For 1970, family planning program effort had the strongest direct influence on fertility (a result consistent with previous studies). Life expectancy at birth was the other direct influence. The direct influence of life expectancy at birth was less than that of family planning, but the total influence was greater. After life expectancy and family planning, school enrollment and relative educational status of women had the strongest indirect and total influences. The other variables all had a positive influence on fertility. When the total variance attributable was considered, directly and indirectly to each of the independent variables, urbanization, carlorie supply, and per capita gross national product all accounted for less than 5% of the variance in fertility, all of it indirect. Life expectancy, family planning, and school enrollment each explained (directly plus indirectly) more than 10% of the variance in fertility. The pattern differed somewhat for 1980. Calorie supply, per capita gross national product, and relative educational status of women had no influence, direct or indirect on fertility. Also for 1980, life expectancy had a stronger direct influence on fertility than family planning. Overall, life expectancy at birth, family planning program effort, and total school enrollment emerged as the principal influences on fertility.     

Regional and technological dualism: A dual‐dual development framework applied to Puerto Rico

A ‘dual‐dual’ framework is proposed which captures the prevailing regional dualism (between rural and urban areas) and technological dualism (between traditional and modern techniques). Six interdependent sectors are specified: 1) urban formal, 2) urban informal, 3) rural non‐farm formal, 4) rural non‐farm informal, 5) rural farm formal, and 6) rural farm informal. The framework is applied to the case of Puerto Rico and its experience with an ‘industrialisation‐first’ development strategy between 1950 and 1970. It is shown that this framework lends itself well to the analysis of such issues as the pattern of employment, migration, and income distribution among regions and sectors.     

Governments,NGOs and agricultural development: Perspectives on changing inter‐organisational relationships

There are divergent interests in involving NGOs in public sector programmes of agricultural development. Some commentators seek to foster popular participation through such involvement, while others view it largely within the logic of public sector cutbacks. Using material primarily from Latin America, and also from Africa and Asia, the potential gains and risks inherent in a range of NGO‐government relationships are considered. Strengths and weaknesses in NGO development strategies and practice are reviewed, and potential public sector contributions discussed. While closer relationships between NGOs and governments seem likely to emerge in the context of current public sector reform, the form these relationships will assume is less clear and will probably be highly diverse.     

Macro development planning in tropical Africa: Technocratic and non‐technocratic causes of failure

Based on the targets given in the development plans and the national income data of twenty‐two tropical Africa countries in the late 1960s, this paper finds a wide consensus among the planners on the structural determinants of the macro variables selected as plan targets, so that difference in targets can be explained largely by the different values assumed by these determinants in the sample countries. The implementation record was poor, and may be traced in part to a domino effect inherent in the recursive structure of target selection. The analysis of the causes of implementation failure shows that most of the causes lie outside of the competence of the planners. Alternative methods to calculate plan targets are not likely to meet with superior fulfilment results.     

The growth of multinational banking,the Euro‐currency market and their effects on developing countries

This paper describes the recent rapid growth of transnational banking and lending, as well as it causes. Since the early seventies, a growing proportion of this lending has been oriented towards developing countries. The principal causes for this trend are outlined, and the changes in the mechanisms of the ‘Eurodollar market’ which made access to it easier for developing countries are described. The trends prevailing in developing countries’ financing throughout the seventies are then examined. Finally, the economic and political effects of the rapid growth in lending by private banks to the Third World are discussed.     

A comparative analysis of clientelism in Greece,Spain, and Turkey: the rural–urban divide

This article examines the evolution of patron–client relationships in Greece, Spain, and Turkey through the prism of the rural–urban divide. It traces which modes of clientelism (rural or urban) are more evident in these countries today, and why. Further, it finds that in rural modes of clientelism, normative bonds of deference and loyalty with a Weberian notion of ‘traditional authority’ and affective ties between political patrons and clients are more observable whereas urban modes of clientelism usually yield Downsian competition between political machines with more coercive motives. It suggests that these two notions of clientelism are not mutually exclusive but should rather be seen in a continuum. More generally, this article demonstrates the need in the existing literature for more contextualized analyses that take into account differences between socioeconomic and geographical antecedents of rural vs. urban clientelism and their divergent political reflections.     

Nutrition,health and mortality in sub‐Saharan Africa: Is there a gender bias?

Anthropometric, mortality, and population data presented by Svedberg [1990] in this journal suggested a slight anti‐male bias in undernutrition in sub‐Saharan Africa. This article re‐analyses some of the same anthropometric, mortality, and population data and supplements them with more recent findings. In contrast to Svedberg's results, it finds evidence of a slight and rising anti‐female bias in sub‐Saharan Africa, which is particularly apparent in mortality and population indicators.     

Are pre‐schoolers from female‐headed households less malnourished? A comparative analysis of results from Ghana and Kenya

This article compares household income level and pre‐schooler weight‐for‐age across household groupings that are differentiated by female headship variables which are reflective of the heterogeneity of female‐headed households. Data from Kenya indicate that it is the interaction of income and female headship at low‐income levels which promotes pre‐schooler nutritional status. For Ghana, incomes have to be quite large (in the upper tercile of the distribution) before a reduction in the child's likelihood of having a low weight‐for‐age is achieved through further income increases. We argue that an absence of complementary child health inputs is more likely for households in the Ghana sample, and that in this type of environment, differences in nurturing patterns, as proxied by headship status, will have a muted impact on child nutrition.     

The behaviour of indigenous and non‐indigenous farmers: A case study

This paper contrasts the economic performance of a group of immigrant Chinese paddy farmers in West Malaysia with their native Malay counterparts. The situation involves their differing response to the introduction of doublecropping. Productivity measures, production function estimates, and field observations indicate significant differences in performance. The reasons for these differences are attributed to the characteristics of immigrant groups, differences in perception of the innovations, and historical factors.     

Regional wages and economic development: A case study of manufacturing wages in India, 1950–1960

This paper examines some hypotheses with respect to the interregional wage variations in Indian manufacturing from 1950 to 1960. The choice of this period was determined by the availability of relevant data. It was found in an earlier study that the regional wage structure tended to be flexible during the period under consideration. In this paper, an attempt has been made to explain the inter‐regional wage differentials by analysing the data on trade unionism, per capita income, productivity, capital intensity, non‐primary employment and consumer prices. It is argued that the level of regional wage differentials can be explained by relative differentials in productivity and in trade unionism, but the change in wage differentials depends upon the changing capital intensity in respective regions.     

Internal migration in Turkey: Socioeconomic characteristics by destination and type of move, 1965–70

Based on examination of internal migration in Turkey during the 1965-70 period, the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of migrants and the variation in these properties by type of move undertaken (first, repeat, and return migration) and by choice of destination are described. The volume, rates, and differentials of migration are discussed in this context. A very rapid rural-urban migration occurred in the 1950-70 period; urban population increased from 18.8 to 35.8% of the total. The emphasis on industrialization, the mechanization and relatively slower growth of agricultural production, the scarcity of new lands to cultivate, and the construction of a large road network connecting cities with their hinterland and rural communities contributed to this increased movement. The 1970 Turkish census questionnaire included a question on "place of usual residence 5 years ago" for the 1st time. Along with information on place of birth and usual residence in 1970, the census provides information on place of residence at 3 points in time. The study is based on a 1/1000 sample selected from the household records of the 1970 Population Census of Turkey. Discussion is restricted to the migration of the adult population; the migration of children (up to age 15), which is viewed as involuntary is excluded. The working file contains 20,602 cases. Variables analyzed include age, sex, education, labor force status, occupation, and place of residence in 1970. The migration-defining variables are province of birth and usual residence in 1965 and 1970. Census data indicated that 9.2% of the population 15 years of age and older changed their place of residence during the 1965-70 period, moving to another province. An additional 4% moved to another place within the same province. There were strong indications of stage migration, if movements both within and between provinces are considered. All urban places showed population grew through intraprovincial migration. Only large metropolitan cities have grown through interprovincial migration. Migrants from rural areas 1st move to towns and cities within the same province and then make a 2nd move to other, mostly larger, urban areas and metropolitan cities. The majority of the interprovincial migrants (60%) were interurban movers, and only 1/5 were rural to urban migrants. +a large group of repeat migrants who moved primarily between urban places, were relatively older, better educated and skilled, and more likely to be employed in white-collar occupations than their counterparts. Although interprovincial migration was dominated by young and single males, there was considerable variation in migrant properties according to the type of move made and the place of destination. Socioeconomic characteristics of the 2 basic migration types are included.