Aid,the Real Exchange Rate and Why Policy Matters: The Cases of Morocco and Tunisia

Abstract

Every form of foreign-exchange inflow, including aid, can potentially cause real-exchange rate appreciation, with adverse consequences for the production of tradables (‘Dutch Disease’). Whether it does so depends on the policy response to the inflow. This paper investigates the issue for Morocco and Tunisia, over 1980–2009. We find that aid led to a real appreciation in Morocco, but had no effect on Tunisia’s real exchange rate. This confirms the importance of the macroeconomic framework in which aid is provided, and the key role for infrastructure and other supply-side improvements in determining the final real-economy impact of aid and other inflows.     

Police Collapse in Authoritarian Regimes: Lessons from Tunisia

The quick unraveling of authoritarian systems specifically designed to bear social pressure during revolutions is puzzling. Building on the 2011 Tunisian revolution, this article analyzes the collapse of the police apparatus during the 2011 revolution. In line with Way and Levitsky's study of authoritarian collapse, this article shows that the low cohesion and low scope of the security forces is one of the main factors explaining the rapid collapse of one of the Arab world's seemingly most solid repressive systems. At the theoretical level, this article will demonstrate that preference falsification is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it can nourish authoritarian resilience. On the other, it can also weaken repressive regimes by making core members of the regime overestimate the loyalty of the low-ranking members of the security apparatus.     

Cosmopolitanism and National Tradition: The Case of Slovenia

This paper discusses the contradictions of maintaining national identity in the age of globalization. It investigates the central relevance of the concept of citizenship in light of the encroaching forces of economic and cultural globalization, on the one hand; and ethnic, nationalistic, and religious fundamentalism, on the other. The paper argues for the need to recognize not only the meaning of national identity, derived mainly from works of art and literature in a given tradition, but also its potential to head off forms of reductionism, be they economic or ethnic. In this regard, the paper calls for a theoretically subtle approach to the contemporary dilemmas of small nations, caught between the fundamentalist temptation (nationalism) and global corporate homogeneity. The case of Slovenia is used here to spell out the necessity to develop a cosmopolitan attitude, characterized as it is by both local cultural tradition and international codes of expression. Such an attitude may best be developed in a civic sphere that provides the mediating ground between the solipsistic pursuit of individual happiness and governmental political regimentation.     

Democrats and Minority Marginalization: The Case of Pakistan

Pakistan is the first post-war experiment in political Islam to establish a democratic state. While Pakistan's consistently poor democratic record has disadvantaged every citizen, its religious minorities are especially marginalized. This article argues that this marginalization is a consequence of institutionalized political inequality, which indeed may be the root cause of Pakistan's overall democratic weakness. Again, contrary to the popular perception, this article demonstrates that Pakistan's democratic leaderships are as—if not more—complicit in this marginalization as the Islamist dictator Zia-ul-Haq and others. First, the worldview of Pakistan's ostensibly liberal-democratic founder Mahomed Ali Jinnah and its impact on the constitutional framework of Pakistan is analysed. Second, the political culture spawned by another ostensibly democratic leader Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in securing the mandate for the new post-1971 constitution is explicated. These two ‘democratic’ processes have profoundly influenced the marginalization of religious minorities in Pakistan. This has significant lessons for ‘democratic’ transition leaderships in the contemporaneously evolving cognate experiments in the Arab Spring regions and elsewhere where similarly small minorities exist.     

One Plus One can be Greater than Two: Evaluating Synergies of Development Programmes in Malawi

This paper investigates the interplay between the Social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) and the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP) in Malawi. We take advantage of data collected from a 17-month evaluation of a sample of households eligible to receive SCTP, which also provided information about inclusion into FISP. We estimate two types of synergies: i) the complementarity between SCTP and FISP, that is whether the impact of both interventions run together is larger than the sum of the impacts of these interventions when run separately, and ii) the incremental impact of receiving FISP when a household already receives SCTP, as well as the incremental impact of receiving SCTP when a household already receives FISP. The analysis shows that there are synergies between the two policy interventions, mainly in terms of incremental impacts of each programme over the other, in increasing expenditure, agricultural production and livestock.     

Work Contracts and Earnings Inequality: The Case of Chile

Great social inequality has been one of the worrisome features of economic development in Latin America. This study focuses on Chile, one of Latin America's fastest growing economies with one of the highest levels of income inequality during the 1990s. Using micro-level data from the 1994 and 2000 Encuestas de Caracterización Socio-Económica, this article examines the role of work contracts in explaining male and female earnings and earnings inequality among wage and salary workers over the second half of the 1990s. The analysis distinguishes between wage and salary work without a work contract – referred to as ‘informal’ work, and wage and salary work with a work contract. Within the latter group, the study further differentiates by the type of work contract held, such as permanent and a variety of contingent work contracts. The findings reveal that the majority of employees in informal and contingent wage and salary work arrangements earned significantly less than their permanent counterparts. Additionally, informal and contingent wage and salary work arrangements accounted for a small, although increasing, fraction of male and female earnings inequality from 1994 to 2000. Finally, the proliferation of seasonal, fixed-term, and informal wage and salary work arrangements has been one of the few economically significant factors in explaining changes in male and female earnings inequality over the second half of the 1990s.     

Conflict Transformation and Civil Society: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh

If Armenian and Azerbaijani negotiators ever agree on the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh, it will not necessarily resolve the long-running conflict, because any peace treaty would require the consent of the Karabakh Armenians, whose political representatives are currently excluded from peace negotiations. It is difficult to imagine the Karabakh Armenians consenting to such a treaty without a change in their perception of the Azerbaijanis. According to the theory of conflict transformation/peacebuilding, Nagorno-Karabakh’s civil society should be able to make a contribution to this change. Using the example of four Nagorno-Karabakh civil society organisations, this study shows how they positively or negatively influence conflict transformation.     

Doing Things with Words: The Case of 'Management' and 'Administration'

Over the last two decades, management, rather than administration, has become the dominant category through which both academics and practitioners talk, write and argue the organization of public services. More recently, the discourses of leadership have also been increasingly deployed in this context. Based on interviews with UK National Health Service trust chief executives, the article examines these particular discursive changes, exploring what the distinctions do rather than what the categories might represent. It reminds us of some of the things we do (in reality and to reality) when we deploy such words, especially in the debate about control. It also suggests possibilities for disturbing the dominance of the terms that are generally axiomatic in constructing arguments about the public sector; a dominance that has come to favour the interests of some as it denies the interests of others.     

Cattle Markets Integration and Price Discovery: The Case of Mali

This article analyses the level of integration in 10 cattle markets in Mali. The results indicate a limited interdependence among markets where, in majority of cases, more than 70 per cent of price variation is due to own-price shocks. However, the Ségou market exhibited a high level of interaction with other markets, behaving mostly as a price information receiver. Some markets behaved as sources of price information, however, without taking a clear price leadership role. This low level of market integration may be attributed to limited access to livestock markets and timely price information.     

Islamic Fundamentalism and Women's Economic Role: The Case of Iran

It is commonly believed that Islamic fundamentalism is responsible for the low female employment rate in the Middle East and North Africa. I earlier presented evidence from Indonesia indicating that the deteriorating conditions of women's economic role in the 1990s was related to the economic circumstances of the Asian Crisis, not to the rise of political Islam (Bahranitash, 2002). In fact, in Indonesia, increasing support for the Islamic movement was itself spurred by the Asian Crisis. As a contrasting case, I here examine Iran, a country where political Islam has been in power for over two decades. If commonly held views about the impact of the Islamic religion on female employment were true, one would expect a steady or sharp decline of the female employment rate in postrevolutionary Iran. The empirical data show the reverse. Women's formal employment rates increased in the 1990s and did so much faster than they had during the 1960s and 1970s, when a pro-Western secular regime was in power. This sharp increase in women's employment seriously challenges the view that religion explains women's economic status in Muslim countries. The evidence from Iran indicates that the situation of women's employment there has followed a common pattern of elsewhere in the South—an overall increase in female employment. This fact then suggests that the forces of international political economy, rather than religion, appear to be a determining factor in the state of women's economic role in Iran.