Structuralism versus Monetarism : A note on evidence

This paper illustrates, with a ten year simulation, possible effects of Malaysia's national buffer stock for natural rubber on the level and stability of export earnings, export tax revenue, producer income and world price. Employing rubber market parameters based on inference and empirical tests and buffer stock operating costs and policies similar to those of the current Malaysian buffer stock, it is shown that capital requirements for effective control exceed those at the disposal of the buffer stock manager while control may be expected to stabilize price at the expense of export earnings and producer income stability. These unfavourable effects can be neutralized in part by the increase in receipts obtained with a sufficiently narrow controlled price range or by an increase in demand emanating from reduced price risk. Under the apparent wider range of the buffer stock, losses in export earnings and producer income, as well as capital expenses and the terminal deficit of the stock authority are each less than 1 per cent of export earnings and producer income. The maximum short run capital requirement is about 2.5 per cent of these latter magnitudes. The arguments presented indicate that internationalization of the buffer stock would increase the benefits and decrease the costs in terms of the proportion of producer income and export earnings, compared to the existing national device.     

Export concentration and export performance in developing countries, 1954–67

The relationship between export concentration and various aspects of the export performance of 31 developing nations during the period 1954–67 is considered in this paper.¹ Estimates of the magnitude, instability and time‐trend of both the geographic concentration of exports and export earnings are utilised to estimate the direction and strength of association between these aspects of export concentration, instability and growth.² The analysis reveals diverse patterns of geographic export concentration among the countries, but offers little support for conventional views of an important direct relationship between export concentration and the instability or growth rate of export earnings.³     

International tourism and export instability

Export diversification has been suggested as a strategy for decreasing the level of export earnings instability which is experienced by many developing countries. In recent years the international tourism sector has made an increasingly important contribution to the economies of many low income countries. This article examines whether diversification into the non‐traditional tourism sector has succeeded in decreasing the instability of export earnings. It was found that although tourism has the advantage of high growth rates and is a major source of foreign currency receipts, earnings from international tourism did not bring about a significant decrease in the instability of export earnings of most of the developing and industrialised countries considered. Furthermore, a net increase in the instability of earnings from tourism and merchandise exports occurred in a number of countries, and may be a particular problem in small, open developing economies.     

Effective exchange rates for exports in Pakistan

Effective exchange rates for exports in Pakistan can be calculated which take into account the major export incentive measures in operation and their divergent treatment of specific exports. This quantification of export policies into an overall measure of the implicit (effective) foreign exchange rate structure permits an evaluation of the impact of export promotion measures on foreign exchange earning capacity. The major export incentive schemes were found to provide the highes’ subsidies to those exports with the highest total import components and the lowest relative earnings of net foreign exchange. Thus de velopment policy in some cases failed adequately to encourage these producers with relatively higher levels of domestic value‐added to export their products.     

‘Effective exchange rates for exports in Pakistan’ a comment

In his article ‘Effective Exchange Rates for Exports in Pakistan’ [1972], Walter Hecox has incorrectly implied that the ranking of export sectors by their net foreign exchange earnings yield a measure of their export efficiency. This note argues that the proper measures for export ranking is the domestic resource cost criterion, and that rankings by the two measures differ substantially.     

A note on the functioning of international commodity price stabilisation agreements in periods of fluctuating monetary exchange rates

A belief held by many government officials and development economists is that sizeable and irregular commodity price fluctuations have important detrimental effects on both exporting and importing countries. Given the nature of these adverse effects attempts have been made to negotiate international price stabilisation agreements under which some central authority would make market interventions to offset the random price fluctuations. However, this study argues that the utility of such agreements should be re‐examined due to the effects of floating exchange rates. Empirical evidence is also presented which shows that recent exchange rate variability has had at least as much of a destabilising influence on commodity export earnings as fluctuating prices, and that the effects are borne unevenly by exporters of the same commodity due to their association with different currency blocks. When examined from the viewpoint of commodity importers the price and exchange rate effects are also found to be very different for individual countries.     

A welfare analysis of the EC‐ACP sugar protocol

The Sugar Protocol, laid down in the Convention of Lome, has been an established instrument of commodity policy for nearly 20 years. Its basic rule is that the EC imports at guaranteed prices specified quantities of sugar from ACP countries. It is the objective of the article to provide an economic evaluation of the Sugar Protocol. Impacts on prices, trade, export earnings and economic welfare are elaborated. The Sugar Protocol's impacts on the level and instabilty of sugar export earnings are jointly evaluated by computing transfer and risk benefits along the lines of Newbery/Stiglitz. A major conclusion is that the policy has to be evaluated differently from the donor's and the recipient's point of view. The Sugar Protocol induces international income transfers that are untargeted in terms of per capita income. It causes, however, rather strong risk benefits compared with other instruments of international commodity policy and sizeable welfare gains for individual recipient countries.     

Incidence of agricultural export taxation in Papua New Guinea

The present fixed‐rate levy on major rural exports exerts a highly regressive and burdensome impact on marginal estates and smallholders at low external prices. In an export boom, however, it fails significantly to compress substantial plantation windfall profits and abnormally high village incomes. Thus the duty tends to destabilise producers' earnings over the export cycle. These undesirable effects can be considerably reduced under the proposed export tax schedules, with a cut‐off point to eliminate fiscal absorption at lower prices. However, the built‐in graduated rate structures will enable the government to mobilise greater excess agricultural resources during a price upswing. This serves not only to compensate for the tax losses through Marketing Boards' accumulations, but also to provide government revenue for rural improvement and development purposes.     

Export instability and the domestic economy: Questions of causality

The conventional view concerning the impact of export instability on the domestic economies of developing countries is one of pessimism. Export instability is thought to adversely affect the short‐run stability and longer‐run growth of income. Empirical evidence on these matters is, however, inconclusive. This article applies a Granger/Sims reduced form approach to examining whether export instability generates short‐run instability in domestic income. For each of a sample of 20 trade‐dependent countries the results obtained strongly support the contention that export instability induces short‐run macroeconomic instability.     

Changes in earnings inequality and labour market segmentation: Metropolitan Santiago 1969–78

Changes in earnings inequality are examined in this article through an eclectic approach allowing for differences in human capital earnings function by labour market segments. Several findings are of interest. The first are the components of earnings inequality changes, these being, in order of importance: changes in the within segments inequality, changes in the relative share of the informal sector segment, and changes in relative income between segments. Second, these changes are found to be the result of labour market liberalisation policies such as abolition of both minimum wages and labour turnover legislation in the formal sector, the promotion of self‐employed activities in the informal sector, and, the selective mobility pattern between segments.     

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF DEPARTMENTAL CHIEF EXECUTIVES: PERSPECTIVES FROM NEW ZEALAND

This article examines the new approach to specifying and assessing the performance of departmental chief executives in New Zealand introduced in 1988 by the fourth Labour government (1984–1990). Drawing on the findings of a series of interviews with ministers, chief executives and other senior public servants conducted between late 1989 and late 1991 by a number of researchers, the article outlines the origins and implementation of the new policy framework, and evaluates its strengths and weaknesses. From the evidence available to date, it appears that the new model has won the support of most of the parties directly affected, and that it has enhanced the accountability of chief executives to their portfolio minister(s). However, the implementation of the new regime has highlighted the inherent problems of assessing the performance of senior personnel in the public sector and of imposing sanctions in the event of substandard performance. In addition, various issues of a constitutional nature have arisen concerning the roles and responsibilities of chief executives, the balance of power between chief executives and their portfolio minister(s), and the proper role of the Prime Minister and Cabinet in the new accountability framework.     

The use of export projections in allocating foreign aid among and domestic resources within developing countries

Foreign exchange shortages have been considered by many economists as the effective restraint to growth in the developing world. This is especially the case insofar as less developed countries (LDC's) are limited in their capacity to purchase imports from abroad that are needed to complement domestic factors of production. Exports obviously play an important role in this context since they constitute the primary source of foreign exchange for most LDC's. It is for this reason that a number of projections of future export earnings of LDC's have been made. These projections are presumably useful in decision making of various kinds. However, there is not much evidence that would indicate ways in which the projections have been or might conceivably be used. The purpose of this paper, accordingly, is to examine two such possible uses of export projections in connection with: (i) the allocation of foreign aid by donor countries among LDC's; and (2) the allocation of resources over time in individual LDC's.     

RAPID RURAL APPRAISAL: ITS USE AND VALUE FOR HEALTH PLANNERS AND MANAGERS

Rapid appraisals have proliferated in the field of health in the past decade because of their perceived promise of obtaining information for planning and managing programmes cheaply and quickly. This article examines one type of appraisal, Rapid Rural Appraisal ( rra ) in order to assess the contribution of this approach. The background to its development is described, highlighting the relevance to primary health care ( phc ). Its two essential characteristics – qualitative inquiry and community participation are noted. The approach is examined, the techniques described and case studies which have used the approach are presented. The strengths and weaknesses of the approach based on these examples are assessed. The article concludes that the rra approach should not be seen merely as an approach to get information for the planning process but rather as an integral part of the process itself. Its contribution is to improve the quality of the information planners obtain and to develop plans of action by using qualitative inquiry and involving the community in this process.     

Private foreign asset accumulation,not just capital flight: Evidence from the Philippines

External debt problems have been accompanied in many developing countries with large private capital outflows. The latter phenomenon is usually identified in the literature as ‘capital flight’. This article argues that private foreign asset accumulation is a more appropriate term and compares a great variety of definitions and measurement methods and applies these to Philippine data for 1971–88. Outcomes show striking differences in assessment of the magnitude of the phenomenon. In the preferred definition of this study applied to the Philippines, unrecorded workers remittances from abroad, a factor omitted in other studies, represent a major source of foreign exchange earnings which indirectly support private foreign asset accumulation. Other definitions appear to severely underestimate private capital outflows. Econometric evidence on the causes of private foreign asset acquisition shows a strong sensitivity to the applied definition. Regression analysis for six alternative definitions shows that the expected real exchange rate depreciation and the real foreign‐domestic interest rate differential are ‐ in line with portfolio theory ‐ important determinants in the case of nearly all alternative measures, except for those that attempt to define a narrow ‘capital flight’ concept. Other determinants found significant are the availability of external finance and the previous year stock of private foreign assets. Debt‐fuelled private capital outflows are associated with the political economy of public external borrowing and the segmented nature of the foreign exchange market in the Philippines. Stock‐adjustment behaviour in the acquisition of private foreign assets in turn is interpreted as being a result of a simultaneous decision‐making process determining consumption demand and portfolio choice of high‐income Philippine households to satisfy demands related to their international lifestyles. These results have important welfare implications and policy consequences.     

INNOVATION,PUBLIC POLICY AND PUBLIC SERVICES DELIVERY IN THE UK. THE WORD THAT WOULD BE KING?

This paper explores the dialogue about innovation in public services currently found within public policy and creates an interaction between research and practice about its strengths and limitations. It argues that this dialogue is a flawed one, often both at odds with the existing evidence and lacking a holistic understanding of the nature of innovation and its distinctive policy and managerial challenges. It therefore synthesizes existing research to challenge current public policy thinking about the role and determinants of innovation in public services. It concludes by offering five lessons towards effective policy‐making and implementation that would provide a more sophisticated and evidence‐based approach to the encouragement and sustenance of public service innovation – and four key areas for further research.     

Self-employment earnings and returns to education in rural Peru

This article estimates the returns to education for households who derive part of their income from household based non-farm self-employment ventures in rural Peru. While education is an individual level variable, earnings are observed at the household level. This asymmetry complicates both the estimation and the interpretation of the returns to education. This article is the first jointly to incorporate three channels through which education affects household earnings. Education affects earnings through the marginal productivity of labour (worker effect), labour allocation across activities (between-activity allocative effect) and its production externality effect (spillover effect). The results suggest that the between-activity allocative effects of education dominate the returns. This article also makes novel use of economic geography to proxy for the role that access to markets plays in determining these returns. In particular, altitude is a strong predictor of activity choice and the returns to education in this mountainous country.     

Chile’s new entrepreneurs and the “economic miracle”: The invisible hand or a hand from the state?

The Chilean economy has grown by leaps and bounds over the last decade, thanks to a dramatic increase in export activities (and earnings), and the emergence of a more entrepreneurial capitalist class. This article attempts to explain that remarkable phenomenon using original data on entrepreneurs in one of Chile’s most important new export industries, namely, fishing. The central argument of the article is that domestic entre-preneurship flourished during the Pinochet period not because the state “got the economic environment right,” as the neoliberal ideologues are wont to argue, but rather because the Pinochet government behaved, in several important senses, like a “developmental state,”a la the states of East Asia. The analysis also reveals a heretofore ignored role of a developmental state, which is to help produce a new capitalist class culture. In the Chilean case, it was state policy as well as ideology that gave rise to a new generation of entrepreneurs. Rachel A. Schurman is assistant professor in the Energy and Resources Group and the Department of Sociology at the University of California at Berkeley. Her primary interests are in environmental sociology, and the role that natural resource industries play in regional economic development. She is currently working on the changing character of the tuna industry in the Western Pacific afters the Third U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea. Her next project will be a book on the economic and ecological sustainability of natural resource-based, export-led growth in Chile.     

Changes in human capital and earnings inequality: Recent evidence from Brazil 1

Abstract

This paper estimates changes in the rates of return to human capital across the earnings distribution using data from over a 10-year period for Brazil. It uses these estimates to simulate the separate impacts of changes in returns to skills and changes in the supply of skills on earnings inequality. Evidence points strongly to growing inequality in rates of return to education in Brazil. This finding suggests that recent macroeconomic and trade reforms have been of most benefit to the skilled rather than the unskilled. Supporting evidence points to an improved competitiveness in the labour market, with workers increasingly rewarded for productivity. However, although increases in returns to education are more pronounced at the top of the earnings distribution, this did not in practice led to increased inequality. This is because levels of education and other labour market-rewarded endowments have increased and offset the rate of return effect. Appropriate education policy is therefore an essential partner for macroeconomic and trade reform if a developing economy is to avoid worsening income inequality.     

Who Benefits from Higher Education in Low- and Middle-Income Countries?

In this article, we investigate how higher education contributes to the employment and earnings of individuals in labour markets, and whether social origins play a role in the financial benefits from higher education. We focus on these questions in nine low- and middle-income countries: Armenia, Bolivia, Colombia, Georgia, Ghana, Kenya, Laos, Macedonia, and Vietnam. We use the recent Skills Towards Employability and Productivity (STEP) surveys of urban labour force participants to examine individuals’ educational attainment, labour market participation, and earnings. Using logistic regressions, we find that individuals from disadvantaged origins are less likely to obtain a higher education degree. We find that in most of these countries, individuals who have earned a higher education degree are significantly more likely to be in the labour force and find employment, and enjoy sizable earnings premia. The findings are fairly robust with regard to the samples of individuals examined, and the methods used to measure earnings premia. Finally, we find little evidence that the earnings premia from higher education vary by social origins or the likelihood of an individual completing a degree. These results suggest that the benefits from higher education are comparable for individuals from disadvantaged and advantaged social origins.     

Structural and Behavioural Characteristics of Informal Service Employment: Evidence from a Survey in New Delhi

This article argues that at least two distinct categories within the informal sector - informal services and informal manufacturing - exhibit different structural and behavioural characteristics. While some segments of informal manufacturing may indeed be 'dynamic' as noted by some recent studies, the hypothesis is tested for the informal service employment on the basis of a survey by the author in New Delhi, India. It examines investment, earnings, returns to human capital, socio economic characteristics and scope for upward mobility of informal service employment. It finds formal education does not explain differences in earnings in the sample but background characteristics do; earnings in the informal service sector are neither the lowest in the economy nor are they comparable to wages in the urban formal unskilled sector, when differences between migrants and non-migrants are taken into account. On the basis of these results, the paper reflects on the nature of growth and structural change in the Indian economy and draws some analytical and policy implications.