Gender,Weather Shocks and Welfare: Evidence from Malawi

This paper explores the gender-differentiated effects of weather shocks on households’ welfare in Malawi using panel data aligned with climatic records. Results show that temperature shocks severely affect household welfare, reducing consumption, food consumption and daily caloric intake. The negative welfare effects are more severe for households where land is solely managed by women, a finding that sheds light on the gender-unequal impact of temperature shocks. Our evidence also suggests that women’s vulnerability to temperature shocks is linked to women’s land tenure security, as temperature shocks significantly impact women’s welfare only in patrilineal districts, where statistics show that investment in agricultural technologies is lower.     

Weather Shocks,Agricultural Production and Migration: Evidence from Tanzania

We analyse whether Tanzanian rural households engage in internal migration as a response to weather-related shocks. We hypothesise that, when exposed to such shocks and a consecutive crop yield reduction, rural households use migration as a risk management strategy. Our findings confirm that for an average household, a 1 per cent reduction in agricultural income induced by weather shock increases the probability of migration by 13 percentage points on average within the following year. However, this effect is significant only for households in the middle of wealth distribution, suggesting that the choice of migration as an adaptation strategy depends on initial endowment. What is more, the proposed mechanism applies to households whose income is highly dependent on agriculture, but is not important for diversified livelihoods.     

Child Schooling,Child Health,and Rainfall Shocks: Evidence from Rural Vietnam

Abstract

We study the effect of rainfall shocks on child schooling outcomes and on standardised height for age (a measure of child health) in rural Vietnam. We find that adverse rainfall shocks during pregnancy adversely affect children’s school entry delay and progress through school. Adverse rainfall shocks in the third year of life adversely affect both schooling and child health. These effects differ by region, as a result of constraints that reflect regional economic heterogeneity. We predict that policies that help rural families smooth income shocks will result in increases in human capital and in substantial cumulative returns over a worker’s working life.     

Estimating the Effects of Climate Shocks on Collective Violence: ARDL Evidence from India

This paper examines the causal relationship between climate shocks and collective violence in India using annual data over the period 1954–2006. We use the ARDL bounds testing approach to deal with problems of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of key variables. Rather than rainfall, we find that it is maximum temperature that has long and short run effects on collective violence, with unidirectional causality from temperature shocks to riots. A one standard deviation increase in maximum temperature over the long run average increases the number of riots by 55 per cent. Return to long run equilibrium after a temperature shock takes approximately 15 years. The insignificance of rainfall holds whether we consider rainfall levels or rainfall growth. Given the absence of long run relationships between income levels /growth and riots, it is unlikely that the income channel is the one through which climate affects riots in India. Instead, the evidence suggests a psychological channel through which temperature affects riots in India, with hotter temperatures being associated with increased levels of aggression.     

Livestock Production,Rural Poverty,and Perceived Shocks: Evidence from Panel Data for Vietnam

This paper assesses the contribution of livestock to reducing rural poverty and examines the determinants of livestock assets with panel data from Vietnam. The findings show that livestock production contributes to reducing poverty and livestock assets are influenced by the number of shocks that households faced during the last three years, access to credits, farmland size, education of household head, irrigation system, and access to the national electricity. We suggest that empowering rural households to better cope with shocks contributes to developing livestock and consequently to reducing rural poverty.     

Cash Transfers Enable Households to Cope with Agricultural Production and Price Shocks: Evidence from Zambia

Climate change is projected to dramatically disrupt rainfall patterns and agricultural yields in sub-Saharan Africa. These shocks to food production can mire farming households in poverty traps. This study investigates whether unconditional cash transfers can help households cope with agricultural production and price shocks. We find that cash empowers poor, rural households facing these negative shocks to employ coping strategies typically used by the non-poor and enables them to substantially increase their food consumption and overall food security. Extending relatively small cash payments unconditionally to the rural poor is a powerful policy option for fostering climate-resilient development.     

Migrant Networks in the Urban Labour Market: Evidence from India

This paper analyses the informal channels of the job search process through migrant networks in the urban labour markets in developing countries. Using a novel approach and nationwide sample survey, we measure various aspects of migrant networks such as size, diversity, efficiency and experience content and estimate their effect on probability of employment. Our findings suggest that migrant stock (having experience content) has an inverted-U relationship with the probability of finding a job for a migrant. The share of employed workers in a migrant network (efficiency) and different origin identity (diversity) positively affect the employment outcome through weak ties. Further, the migrant network effect is more active in larger cities as compared to smaller urban areas. The implications of this study indicate towards the importance of non-market informal channels in job searches and the need for integrating labour markets to harness the benefits of larger positive network externalities.     

Labour Market Impacts of School Expenditure and Class Size: Evidence from China

This study is a first attempt to estimate the impact of school resources on students’ subsequent labour market earnings in China. Combining unprecedented school data from the early 1950s to the 1990s with household survey data in the 2000s, this paper documents that expenditure-per-pupil, a proxy measure of school resources (or quality) has a significant impact on the level of subsequent earnings through its influence on education returns. The positive effect calls for policy intervention aimed at improving education, to be based on the perceived economic return to the quantity as well as the quality components of education.     

Weather Shocks and Urban Livelihood Strategies: The Gender Dimension of Household Vulnerability in the Kumi District Of Uganda

The Teso sub-region of Uganda suffered numerous weather shocks in the past, with devastating food security consequences. Using household fixed effects and propensity score matching methods, we analyse the impact of exposure to drought, flood and severe incidence of pests and diseases on household consumption expenditure per adult equivalent for a random sample of households from Kumi Town Council. We find that weather shocks reduce consumption by 17 per cent and that the consumption decline is significantly larger among female-headed households. We also find a higher likelihood of non-farm employment, borrowing and receiving remittances in order to cope with the shocks.     

Social Inequality and Assessments of Democracy and the Market: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Considerable comparative scholarly attention has been paid to various aspects of mass support for democracy and the market. However, despite strong theoretical suggestions of a linkage, little is known about the impact of social inequality on this support. We address this issue using evidence from mass surveys undertaken in 12 post-communist states in 2007, supplemented by country-level data about economic and political performance. Specifically, we investigate whether social inequality generates negative perceptions that democracy and the market will lead to social conflict and if it increases support for anti-democratic forms of governance. Notably, we find little link between citizens’ expectations of social conflict and national-level indices of income inequality. However, we do find a link between perceptions of the extent of social inequality and expectations of market-generated—but not democracy-generated—conflict. Underscoring these positive and negative findings, perceptions of social inequality are also clearly consequential for support for ‘strong-hand’ economic government but not for anti-democratic leadership.     

Active Labour Market Programmes in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

We present a systematic review and meta-analysis of impact evaluations of active labour market programmes (ALMPs) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). We extract 296 impact estimates from 51 programme evaluations to analyse the effects of participation on employment, earnings, hours worked, and formality. Our analysis finds that the probabilities of being employed and in formal employment are the labour market indicators most likely to be positively affected by ALMPs in LAC. Moreover, ALMPs are more successful among women and youth and when they are implemented during periods of economic expansion. Training programmes increase both formal employment and earnings; training is particularly effective when it is more intensive and when explicitly targeting poor individuals.     

Determinants of Efficiency in Least Developed Countries: Further Evidence from Nepalese Manufacturing Firms

Using a translog stochastic production frontier and maximum likelihood econometric methods, we estimate and model the determinants of firm level efficiency in the Nepalese context. Our results are broadly in line with theoretical expectations. We find that large firms are more efficient and that a higher capital intensity leads to inefficiency. There is no statistical evidence to suggest that foreign participation leads to efficiency improvements. Also, we do not observe any link between export intensity and efficiency improvement. We find that higher protection leads to inefficiency. Overall, our results suggest that an outward looking industrial strategy, which relies on less intervention and permits the development of large-scale industries, is conducive to efficiency improvement in least developed countries (LDCs) like Nepal.     

Unequal Laws and the Disempowerment of Women in the Labour Market: Evidence from Firm-Level Data

Institutions are defined as the set of rules that govern human interactions. When these rules are discriminatory, they may disempower segments of a population in the economic spheres of activity. In this study, we explore whether laws that discriminate against women influence their engagement in the economy. We adopt a holistic approach where we explore an overall measure of unequal laws also known as legal gender disparities and relate it to several labour market outcomes for women. Using data for over 59,000 firms across 94 economies, we find that unequal laws not only discourage women’s participation in the private sector workforce, but also their likelihood to become top managers and owners of firms. Suggestive evidence indicates that access to finance, property ownership, business registration, and labour market constraints are pathways by which legal gender disparities disempower women in the private sector.     

Global Value Chains and Market Formation Process in Emerging Export Activity: Evidence from Ethiopian Flower Industry

This article provides a case study of the Ethiopian flower export industry which successfully emerged at time when the EU market (main destination) was already characterised by increasingly stringent standards and delivery requirements. Entering this market required a multitude of capabilities at firm, sector and national levels. Several of these capabilities were absent or weak in the domestic market when the new activity kicked off. The article analyses how the capabilities of individual firms and the industry at large co-evolved and the role of various actors in the ‘market formation’ process.     

The Impact of Trade Credit on Customer Switching Behaviour: Evidence from the Tanzanian Rice Market

We use primary survey data to analyse the relationship between trade credit and customer switching in the context of trade transactions between wholesalers and retailers in the Tanzanian rice market. Results reveal a negative relation of trade credit and customer switching, that is, trade credit acts as a switching barrier; retailers are reluctant to move to another supplier if they depend on trade credit as a source of external finance. This interpretation fits with the underdeveloped financial markets in Tanzania, in which access to external finance is poor among rice retailers.     

Efficiency over generosity? Evidence of electoral accountability from typhoon dayoff in Taiwan

ABSTRACT

Even though voters may irrationally blame the incumbent for natural disasters, democratic accountability can still hold if voters also reward the government for good responses. This article approaches the response-reward question by exploring the election impact of typhoon dayoff decisions in Taiwan. County mayors are responsible for deciding the dayoffs before a typhoon, so voters can easily and immediately observe the quality of the mayor's decision and fully attribute the outcome to him. Results combining 2005–2014 weather, election, and ten survey datasets show that a correct dayoff, which a dayoff was announced and the storm was tomorrow is harmfully strong, can significantly increase the incumbent's vote share. The effect is larger in the election year. Meanwhile, Taiwanese voters also slightly reward the incumbent for a bonus dayoff, which the storm is unexpectedly weak. Evidence also shows that mayors exploit the incumbent advantage by announcing more correct and bonus dayoffs.     

The Labour Market Impacts of Immigration to Developing Countries: Evidence from a Registration Campaign in Thailand

Little is known about the labour market impact of immigration to developing countries, because most immigration to developing countries is poorly measured. We use an unusual dataset from a campaign to register irregular migrants to study how immigration has affected wages, employment, and internal migration in Thailand. We allow for endogenous migration, whereby immigrants are disproportionately attracted to areas with higher wages. Our results suggest that immigration sufficient to increase Thailand's total labour force by one per cent would reduce Thai wages by approximately half a per cent. This effect is stronger than is generally found in developed countries. We find no evidence that immigration has reduced Thai employment rates or has affected internal migration by Thais.     

Tansnationals and foreign trade: Evidence from Brazil

A recursive model of exports and imports of manufactures, in which imports depend in part on exports, is estimated using data for a cross‐section of 17,053 industrial firms. In this sample, 652 firms are foreign‐owned. Explanatory variables include firm size, skill intensity, advertising and other variables in addition to foreign ownership. Foreign ownership has a large, independent effect on both export performance and import propensities, but foreign ownership in itself explains little of the relatively low export/import ratios registered by affiliates of transnationals.