东盟应对两次金融危机不同态度之原因分析

由于受到蔓延全球范围的国际金融危机的影响,东盟遭受到自1997年金融危机以来最大重创,东盟各成员国的经济普遍出现下滑。但令人欣慰的是东盟应对危机的态度却发生了明显变化。在国际金融危机的背景下,东盟采取了一系列步骤积极协调区域内的合作。     

Vulnerability to Multi-Dimensional Poverty: An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Measurement Approaches

This paper investigates whether different measures of ex-post poverty and ex-ante vulnerability to poverty provide consistent estimates of poverty and vulnerability to poverty across households. Moreover, if there is some heterogeneity in the identification of households as poor and vulnerable, it investigates the degree of mismatch between measures? The ex-post monetary poverty (MP) and multidimensional poverty (MDP) measures are used to identify poor households. Likewise, the ex-ante vulnerability to monetary poverty (VMP) and vulnerability to multidimensional poverty (VMDP) measures are used to identify vulnerable households. Using a large household survey data-set of about 90,000 households from the Punjab province of Pakistan, we find that most of the vulnerable households are accurately identified by the ex-ante measures of vulnerability to poverty. However, the ex-post measures of poverty identify different households as poor. Our results show that 18 percent households experiencing MDP are not captured by the one-dimensional measure of MP. The important implication of this study is that the choice of measures does matter in ex-post poverty identification, but not as much in the identification of ex-ante vulnerability to poverty.     

日共前主席不破哲三谈国际金融危机对当代资本主义和世界社会主义的影响

应当代世界研究中心邀请,日本共产党中央前主席不破哲三率领的日共理论交流团于4月19-25日访问北京,就“国际金融危机对当代资本主义和世界社会主义的影响”进行了五场理论研讨。现将不破哲三主要观点综述如下：     

Globalization and Labor in Four Developing Regions: An Institutional Approach

This paper is the introduction to a SCID special issue on “Global Pressures, National Response, and Labor Rights in Developing Countries.” We focus on the potentially conflicting demands that developing countries face from international institutions for better labor standards versus more labor flexibility. This is studied through a comparative analysis of four regions: Eastern Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and the Middle East. The major international institutions we examine are the International Labor Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements, and multinational corporations. This introductory paper presents a review of existing literature on labor standards and labor flexibility with particular focus on the role of international institutions in promoting the two processes and their impact on labor market outcomes. It also describes our project and its contribution to the debates, including a discussion of our main methodological innovation, namely, the construction of new indices for labor standards and flexibility. In empirical terms, it compares the indices across the four regions and provides an analysis of the impact of the indices on labor market outcomes.     

The Economics of Poverty Traps and Persistent Poverty: Empirical and Policy Implications

The moral and economic imperatives to intervene in poverty traps motivate the identification of poverty traps and their structural causes so as to inform the design of appropriate policy responses. However, empirical identification remains challenging because of poverty traps’ complexity. After reviewing mechanisms that can generate poverty traps, we focus on one – multiple financial market failures – emphasising its heretofore underappreciated testable implications, including specific behaviours that are rational only in the presence of a poverty trap. We therefore recommend tests for these behaviours rather than more econometrically challenged efforts to directly test for poverty traps in estimated asset dynamics.     

Suggested Capacities for Minister's Success: An Empirical Approach Based on Saaty's AHP

The roles of ministers are complicated, multiple, and demanding. They need to perform both as a leader of public organization and as a political actor in the Cabinet as appointed by the president or prime minister. This research empirically examines which capacities and types of ministers account for their success. It concludes that a policy capacity is the most desirable ministerial capacity. In addition, this study concludes that a political type minister is the most appropriate ministerial type for ministerial success. However, there is not one best ministerial model, or one required capacity for ministerial success. That is, this study intends to better understand the virtue and the responsibility of ministers.     

The Impact of the Unemployment Rate on Unemployment Benefits in Barbados: An Impulse Response Approach

The purpose of this article is to determine how the rate of unemployment will impact on unemployment benefits in Barbados using annual data from 1982 to 2009 with the use of an impulse response function. The results show that when a shock is applied to the rate of unemployment, which causes it to rise, unemployment benefits will contract marginally and this reaction will not stabilize until the 14th period when a new equilibrium will be attained. Since this new equilibrium will lie below the original equilibrium, rising unemployment will impact negatively on unemployment benefits although this decline will only be marginal.     

Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study

The current international crisis in public finances has made financial sustainability a key issue for governments. Although the European Union (EU) and other international organisations have recommended governments to monitor demographic and economic variables, few studies have considered the influence of these variables on financial sustainability. This paper seeks to identify and analyse the drivers and risk factors that influence the financial sustainability of local government. The findings identify both risk factors (unemployment and population aged under 16 years) and drivers (budgetary outcome) of financial sustainability, which may constitute a useful basis for decision-taking by managers and policy-makers.     

Interest Rates and Investment in East Asia: An Empirical Evaluation of Various Financial Liberalisation Hypotheses

The article attempts to shed light on the appropriate interest rate policy in the process of economic development. To this end, we examine whether higher interest rates lead to higher investment (and growth) in four East Asian countries. We find that the investment rate went up with real interest rates up to 9 per cent in all four countries but started declining at still higher interest rates in two of the countries. Further, a banking crisis occurred in each of the three countries for which the real interest rates exceeded 9 per cent. This evidence rejects the ‘neo-structuralist’ argument. Nor does it support unbridled financial liberalisation. Yet, it provides only limited support to Stiglitz's case for ‘mild financial repression (real interest rates near zero)’ since reducing real interest rates from say, 6 to 3 or 0 per cent would have reduced investment. The optimum policy seems to be closest to McKinnon's ‘restrained financial liberalisation’ policy, that is, liberalisation with a moderate upper limit (about 6 or 7 per cent) on the real interest rates.     

传染性疾病对当代世界的影响及其应对

近年来，伴随“非典”、禽流感，尤其是2009年的甲型H1N1流感的先后发生，传染病疾病问题成为世界各国政府和公众密切关注的焦点问题。传染性疾病，俗称传染病，包括许多种类，比较严重的有鼠疫、霍乱、非典型肺炎、艾滋病、病毒性肝炎、禽流感、狂犬病、登革热、流行性乙型脑炎、肺结核等，较轻的有流行性感冒、流行性腮腺炎等，     

Inequality and the Impact of Growth on Poverty: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa

This study explores the extent to which inequality affects the impact of income growth on the rates of poverty changes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to non-SSA, based on an unbalanced panel of 86 countries over 1977–2004. For all three measures of poverty – headcount, gap, and squared gap – the impact of GDP growth on poverty reduction is a decreasing function of initial inequality. The impacts are similar in direction for SSA and non-SSA, so that within both regions there are considerable disparities in the responsiveness of poverty to income growth, depending on inequality. Nevertheless, the income–growth elasticity is substantially less for SSA, implying relatively small poverty-reduction response to growth.     

The Impact of Knowledge Sharing on Work Performance: An Empirical Analysis of the Public Employees' Perceptions in South Korea

This article examines the impact of knowledge sharing on individual work performance by analyzing perceptions of 323 public employees in South Korea. An analytical model is drawn from an extensive review of literature on knowledge management and sharing from which nine exogenous variables are identified as antecedents of knowledge sharing that affect individual work performance. The results indicate that four exogenous variables—employee training, reward systems, support from the top management, and openness in communication—are perceived to have a positive influence on employees' knowledge sharing, which, in turn, improved individual work performance. Perceived trustworthiness between individuals involved in knowledge sharing has also positively influenced both knowledge sharing and individual work performance. These results imply that individual work performance may be dependent on the effective use of knowledge sharing.     

Impact of Cash Transfer Programmes on School Attendance and Child Poverty: An Ex Ante Simulation for Sri Lanka

For countries assessing whether to implement a cash transfer programme, an ex-ante evaluation is vital to assess its potential impacts. This study simulates the impact of alternative cash transfer programmes on school attendance and poverty among Sri Lankan children. We find that cash transfer programmes targeting poor children would be the most cost-effective way to reduce child poverty and encourage school attendance. If means-testing is not feasible, then programmes targeting the children in households with at least three school-age children would provide a suitable second-best solution. Our findings suggest that even a limited programme budget can provide significant impacts.     

金融危机加速世界经济秩序变迁

全球金融危机促进国际力量格局演进,加速国际经济关系调整,推动G20峰会机制化进程,为重塑国际秩序提供契机,预示着一个新时代的降临。     

金融危机对“梅普组合”的冲击

金融危机对俄罗斯的影响具有多层次和综合性的特点,它已不仅仅涉及经济问题,在暴露出俄罗斯经济增长模式根本缺陷的同时,还对“梅普组合”产生了冲击和影响。     

世界性金融危机殃及俄罗斯

苏联解体后,俄罗斯在叶利钦时期不顾一切地采纳了新自由主义“休克疗法”式的改革,陷入了长达十年的衰退期;1998年的世界金融危机更是使俄罗斯经济陷入瘫痪。进入21世纪,俄罗斯终于走上了顺利前行的道路,却遭遇了8年来最严寒的冬天,源起于美国的世界性金融危机殃及俄罗斯。     

Behavioural Development Economics: Lessons from Field Labs in the Developing World

Explanations of poverty, growth and development depend on the assumptions made about individual preferences and the willingness to engage in strategic behaviour. Economic experiments, especially those conducted in the field, have begun to paint a picture of economic agents in developing communities that is at variance with the traditional portrait. We review this growing literature with an eye towards preference-related experiments conducted in the field. We also offer lessons on what development economists might learn from experiments. We conclude by sharing our thoughts on how to conduct experiments in the field and then offer a few ideas for future research.