The political determinants of fiscal policies in the states of India: An empirical investigation

Using data from the 14 major states of India, we investigate whether state governments' fiscal policy choices are tempered by political considerations. Our principal findings are twofold. First, we show that certain fiscal policies experience electoral cycles: state governments raise less commodity tax revenue, spend less on the current account, and incur larger capital account developmental expenditures in election years than in all other years. Second, we show that coalition state governments raise less own non-tax revenues and spend less on the current account than state governments that are more cohesive in composition. In sum, the dispersion of political power affects government size.     

Analysing credit risk in large local governments: an empirical study in Spain

In governments throughout the world, bank lending excesses, solvency issues and worsening credit ratings have all contributed to raising risk premiums and impeding access to credit, thus provoking a major financial problem in the public sector. Accordingly, tax authorities and regulators need to analyse the causes of public sector bank debt, doing so through the joint study of idiosyncratic and systematic variables, an area that has been neglected in previous research. This paper examines idiosyncratic and systematic factors that may influence local government credit risk through an empirical study of the performance of 148 large Spanish municipalities during 2006–2011. We identify individual factors relevant to the probability of local government default (such as dependent population, per capita income and debt composition) and also determinants associated with macroeconomic developments, such as gross domestic product and the risk premium.     

The effects of hierarchy,centralization and formalization on municipal fiscal health: An empirical test of the bureaucratic ideal

This research examines the effects of three defining features of bureaucratic organizations – hierarchy, centralization of decision‐making, and the formalization of administrative procedures and rules – on the fiscal health of city governments in the US. It utilizes data from a national survey of top appointed city officials in the US to measure the bureaucratic features of city governments, and assesses budgetary solvency using actual financial data from audited financial reports. Using factor analysis to develop a composite bureaucracy index, and addressing unobserved heterogeneity and possible simultaneity bias through least squares dummy variable regression and instrumental variable regression, the empirical analysis shows that excessive bureaucracy leads to poorer fiscal health. Analysing the effects of the individual components of the index, the results indicate that centralization and formalization exert a statistically significant and negative effect on city budgetary solvency.     

Binary decision analysis: An empirical approach to predicting and understanding organizational decisions

Binary decision analysis is an alternative approach to the analysis of organizational decisions that lends itself well to mathematic analysis. The purpose of this paper is to present and test the application of the binary approach to decision analysis and its subsequent mathematical testing using logit regression. Binary decision analysis focuses on each decision as a single choice between two distinct alternatives or a step in a sequence of such binary choices in more complex organizational decisions. Logit regression is a type of regression especially developed to deal with binary dependent variables in the context of inferential statistical testing. By successfully combining these two approaches, and adhering to the theoretical and statistical assumptions upon which they are based, a potentially useful tool of organizational decision analysis results. An applied example of this approach tests its utility. Appropriate conclusions about the method are made based on that test.     

Macroeconomic conditions and political instability: An empirical analysis

This article uses statistical methods to examine the relationship between two key macroeconomic indicators—inflation and economic growth—and four measures of political instability—peaceful unrest, violent unrest, coups d’etat, and changes of government. Using a panel research design and fixed effects regression analysis, I examine first whether contemporaneous relationships exist between these two groups of variables and then the direction of causality between them. Peaceful unrest clearly produces higher inflation and slower growth. Oddly, coups d’etat seem to producelower inflation, and there is some evidence that reverse causation may operate here as well—that high inflation mayreduce the likelihood of coups. Slow economic growth is associated with higher levels of violent unrest and a higher likelihood of coups and changes of government, but the direction of causality in these relationships is not clear. These findings, taken together, suggest that the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and political instability runs primarily from the latter to the former, raising doubts about the widely held view that poor economic conditions generally produce unrest and instability. Mark J. Gasiorowski is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Louisiana State University. He is currently working on a project focusing on the relationship between democracy and macroeconomic conditions.     

Endemic violence in south africa: An od solution applied to two educational settings

This article discusses the endemic nature of violence in South Africa. The authors hypothesize that the culture in South Africa is autocratic in nature. They compare the socialization that occurs between democratic and autocratic families and the relationship this has to later problem-solving and conflict resolution behavior. People raised in an authoritarian culture need to develop skills that will enable them to learn an alternative to violence in conflict and problem-solving situations. The authors describe two educational interventions that followed this model. Available results are presented.

Both historically and today, violence in South Africa is endemic. Examples of South Africans committing violent acts because they feel justified fill today's media. Despite hopes and visions for a new South Africa and examples of goodwill and peaceful common ground between the different political positions, these violent acts emanate from all points of the political compass. Historically, we find examples such as the black tribal wars -- the African/Zulu wars, the Zulu/British wars, and the Anglo/Boer Wars.^(1),(2)

Although some positive processes of change occur in the country, a violent approach to problem-solving still remains. It is evident, both through research and perception, that all major population clusters (including whites, Africans, and other populations in South Africa) are predominantly authoritarian by virtue of their origin, their education, and their creed. This authoritarian culture may contribute toward the resistance against democratic processes and possibly heighten the opportunity for violence. The birth of liberation amplifies this dynamic situation. For all parties involved, liberation heightens the “fear for loss”⁽³⁾ and creates a non-productive power struggle. In this paper, we first explore why we believe that violence is endemic in this country, showing how an authoritarian culture may contribute to this problem. Second, we will describe two OD interventions presented in separate educational settings that were designed to reduce violence.     

Foreign patent monopolies in developing countries: An empirical analysis

This paper presents data on the patenting practice of patent holders resident in industrialized countries in Africa. It is confined to such patents taken out by Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tanzania, and the states whose patent legislation is administered by the Office Africain et Malgache de la Propriété Indus‐trielle (OAMPI): Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Dahomey, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Malagasy Republic, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo, and Upper Volta. These countries account for nearly four‐fifths of the total patents in force andlor applied for in Africa (excluding Rhodesia and South Africa).¹

In particular, the paper tries to throw some light on the importance of developing countries for foreign patenting, the motivation of foreign patent‐holders to take out patents in these countries, the actual transfer of patented technology, and the reasons for the lack of such a transfer. The paper complements the extensive work on foreign technology and foreign patents in Latin America, especially by C. V. Vaitsos [1972] and the Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena [1971]. It also seeks to test the theoretical assumption that patents in developing countries support the transfer of technology.²     

Fiscal decentralisation and IDC economic growth: An empirical investigation

The impact of fiscal decentralisation on LDC economic growth and development is widely debated in the development literature. Notwithstanding this, there has been little attempt to test systematically this relationship. Accordingly, in this note we present an empirical examination of the relationship between the level of fiscal decentralisation and economic growth rates across a sample of twenty‐three LDCsfrom 1974 to 1991. We fail to find, however, any strong, systematic relationship between the two among our sample of LDCs.     

Unanticipated capital flows and the Mexican economy: An empirical investigation

This research explores the differential impact of unanticipated and anticipated foreign capital flows on Mexico's economy for the period 1965–85. If unanticipated flows cause appreciation of the real exchange rate and do not affect domestic expenditure, one can assume that the country's foreign exchange constraint is not binding. Based on empirical evidence, this hypothesis can be rejected. The implication is that Mexico's problems probably do not stem from overborrowing. Anticipated capital flows do affect private spending, but a negative coefficient suggests that the private sector has borne the brunt of post‐crisis adjustment. The results show that the Mexican government has dominated the expenditure of foreign loans throughout the period.     

An empirical analysis of municipal choice in Portugal

Processes of European integration and growing consumer scrutiny of public services have served to place the spotlight on the traditional French model of public/private interaction in the urban services domain. This article discusses recent debates within France of the institutionalised approach to local public/private partnership, and presents case study evidence from three urban agglomerations of a possible divergence from this approach. Drawing on the work of French academic, Dominique Lorrain, whose historical institutionalist accounts of the French model are perhaps the most comprehensive and best known, the article develops two hypotheses of institutional change, one from the historical institutionalist perspective of institutional stability and persistence, and the other from an explicitly sociological perspective, which emphasises the legitimating benefits of following appropriate rules of conduct. It argues that further studying the French model as an institution offers valuable empirical insight into processes of institutional change and persistence.     

Party size and policy outcomes: An empirical analysis of taxation in democracies

Taxation varies widely among democracies. Yet scholars disagree whether differences in political institutions help produce the variation. This article identifies topdown and bottom-up mechanisms by which political institutions are thought to influence taxation. It then combines political and economic data on more than 50 democracies to evaluate the impact of political institutions on government revenues. Cross-sectional and pooled time series analyses that include controls for economic conditions and partisan ideologies of governments confirm an indirect impact of these institutions: there is a curvilinear relationship between the size of political parties in a democracy and the tax revenues collected. Yet the effect of party size on policy outcomes is limited to a subset of democracies. The article opens new paths for research on the roles of electoral, constitutional, legislative, and party institutions in democratic policy making around the world. Andrew C. Gould is associate professor of government at the University of Notre Dame, where he is a Fellow of the Kellogg Institute for International Studies and of the Nanovic Institute for European Studies. He recently publishedOrigins of Liberal Dominance: State, Church, and Party in Nineteenth Century Europe and the article “Conflicting Imperatives and Concept Formation,” which appeared inThe Review of Politics. For their suggestions and/or data, I thank José Antonio Cheibub, Sven Steinmo, Duane Swank, Daniel Verdier, and Michael Wallerstein. For their comments, I am grateful to Carles Boix, Delia Boylan, Lloyd Gruber, Fran Hagopian, Peter Hall, Mark Hallerberg, Gretchen Helmke, Scott Mainwaring, Paul Mueller, Dennis Quinn, Ashutosh Varshney, and two anonymous reviewers. Peter Baker and Tom Lundberg provided insights and skilled research assistance. This work was supported in part by a grant from the Faculty Research Program, University of Notre Dame. A prior version of this article was presented at the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. The errors that remain are my own.     

An analysis of offer functions of banks and credit unions in Guatemala

Economists have sought to identify institutions which might fill the gap in household access to credit arising from rationing by formal lenders. Credit unions have been identified as institutions which might use informational and monitoring advantages to fill that gap. Using information on household perceptions of their access to credit, this article analyses the impact of certain credit unions on the access to credit of households in Guatemala. Regression results indicate that credit unions serve markets unserved by formal lenders and that information on household perceptions of their access to credit is important in making inferences about lender lending activities.     

Estimating the shadow price of foreign exchange: An illustration from India

Although there has been a rapid growth in the literature urging the use of shadow prices in cost‐benefit analysis, little attention has been devoted to the estimation of shadow prices or to the feasibility of alternative methodologies for estimating a particular shadow price. This paper is a modest contribution toward meeting this gap. By applying a variety of methodologies, a range of values is determined for the shadow price of foreign exchange for India. The paper also demonstrates a general approach to estimating shadow prices, which in turn emerges from an explicit consideration of the costs and expected benefits of the required research and analysis.     

An Exploratory Analysis of Fertility Differentials in India

The association between improving economic conditions and declining growth of population has led economists and demographers to hypothesise a direct relationship between indicators of economic development and fertility rates. Using recent National Family Health Survey data and the 1991 Census to explore factors contributing to fertility rates in India, we found that economic variables explain 70 per cent of the interstate variations in India's fertility rates. However, several non-economic variables explain an even greater proportion, for example, indicators of female autonomy explain 84 per cent of the variations. Our analysis demonstrates that to successfully explain Indian fertility rates, models must rely heavily on non-economic variables.     

An empirical approach to the grouping of small communities in the state of new jersey: Opportunities and challenges for comparative study

Despite the fundamental social, political and economic importance of America's small towns, academic research activity concerning these communities has been sparse. Instead, scholarly interest has historically focused on larger urban settings. This circumscribed perspective has often led to an image of small towns as a largely homogeneous residual of metropolitan areas. In fact, small towns are highly diverse in character, and this quality offers intriguing opportunities and challenges to scholars and policy makers in regard to comparative analysis and evaluation. Since it is plausible to assume that dissimilar communities will present a greater variation of needs and problems than will towns with similar characteristics, an enhanced ability to understand, appraise and predict small town variation can provide the basis for improved policy-making, capacity building and service delivery.

The purposes of this study are to empirically demonstrate the wealth of diversity among one state's population of small towns, and to illustrate a set of useful and objective techniques which can be used as an extension of the more familiar deductive approach to dealing with the problem of classifying local government community systems.     

Adoption of System of Rice Intensification under Information Constraints: An Analysis for India

This study examines the role of information constraints in the adoption of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI) in India by explicitly incorporating information in the adoption model. The results showed that effective information along with other factors such as membership in a farmer organisation, availability of labourers, irrigation facility and so forth were important in determining the SRI adoption. The results also revealed that the Government of India’s National Food Security Mission programme did not have significant impact in promoting greater dissemination and adoption of SRI.