Why Do Poor People Co-Hold Debt and Liquid Savings?

I examine the use of flexible savings-and-loan accounts offered by SafeSave, a microfinance institution serving poor slum dwellers in Dhaka, Bangladesh. I find that 59 per cent of the clients co-hold, meaning that they borrow at high interest rates and simultaneously hold low-yield liquid savings. Co-holders could immediately pay down, on average, 32 per cent of their debt using liquid savings and thus avoid significant interest payments. The results show that co-holders are more likely to be regular workers subject to little income uncertainty, suggesting that co-holding is not a consequence of liquidity needs. The paper discusses alternative explanations.     

Analysing credit risk in large local governments: an empirical study in Spain

In governments throughout the world, bank lending excesses, solvency issues and worsening credit ratings have all contributed to raising risk premiums and impeding access to credit, thus provoking a major financial problem in the public sector. Accordingly, tax authorities and regulators need to analyse the causes of public sector bank debt, doing so through the joint study of idiosyncratic and systematic variables, an area that has been neglected in previous research. This paper examines idiosyncratic and systematic factors that may influence local government credit risk through an empirical study of the performance of 148 large Spanish municipalities during 2006–2011. We identify individual factors relevant to the probability of local government default (such as dependent population, per capita income and debt composition) and also determinants associated with macroeconomic developments, such as gross domestic product and the risk premium.     

The impact of functional responsibility and state legal constraints on the “revenue-debt” packages of U.S. Central cities

State governments have the power to restrict the revenue and debt sources available to their municipalities. States also have the power to assign functional responsibilities to their municipalities - - some of which can be extremely burdensome financially (educatin; welfare; hospitals). This research examines the effect of these state constraints on: (1) the revenue-debt use patterns; and (2) the fiscal condition of 243 U.S. central cities (FY 1974, FY 1975, 1976).

The results show that the revenue/debt use patterns of cities vary signigficantly according to the restrictions imposed by the state on their taxing, borrowing, and functional responsibility powers. In addition, revenue/debt use patterns differ among ciites experiencing varying levels of distriess. Severely distressed cities are more dependent on external revenue sources (federal, state). They are less capable of generating revenue at the local level and are less flexible in their use of local revenue soruces, depending more hevily on the property tax and less heavily on nonproperty tax and nontax revenue sources than healthier cities. They are also found to be more reliant on full faith and credit (property tax-backed) long-term debt and on short-term debt than the more prosperous cities.

Cities in states imposing heavy restrictions on use of property tax and full faith and credit long-term debt sources but imposing few restrictions on municipa; nonproperty taxing powers are generally the healthiest fiscally. Such state policies have effectively enhanced municipal diversification of both traditional revenue sources and debt sources.

The major significance of this research is the demonstration that state governments have within their policy-making power the ability to affect the fiscal dependency level of their respective municipalities. An activist role is necessary on the part of state governments if they wish to increase their role in municipal fiscal affairs relative to that of the federal government.     

The political economy of Indian planning

Peruvian statistics were examined to see if construction remained labour‐intensive during 1955–67. Data on output, employment, capital, and materials consumption were either lacking or had defects that made a direct comparison of trends impossible. But conclusions could be drawn from relative price and wage trends. If materials and capital had not been substituted for labour, average construction costs would have risen substantially more than they did. Our estimate was that by 1967 they would have been 25 per cent higher.

Evidence from a sample of firms, however, suggested that adoption of labour‐saving techniques cannot be tied simply to changes in wages compared with other costs. All eleven innovations studied, it is true, were markedly labour‐saving; but the rate of adoption did not closely follow wage changes. Adoption came most often during those less tense years when builders were neither overstrained with orders nor lacking credit and clients. One must conclude that both rising wages and innovations can limit employment expansion in relatively poor countries.

Since both agriculture and manufacturing have been unable to absorb the growing labour force of poor countries, economists have turned their attention to other sectors for supplementary employment expansion. One of these is construction. The construction sector creates not only jobs but builds capital goods with a desirable low import content. In association with carefully structured financial institutions, it may even generate savings. How much employment a given expansion of construction will provide depends on the production functions of the sector: their slopes and their potential shifts. One must find the changes in labour productivity that go with likely changes in volume, capital accumulation, trends in material supplies, and alternate technologies.

All these questions will get imprecise answers without good statistics on output, labour, capital, and materials, both unit prices and volume. If output varies in composition and in the relative quality of components, problems of weighting and aggregating arise. Because of the sector's ? instability and footloose nature, data on construction remain inferior compared with other sectors even in the most advanced and statistics‐rich countries. Can one make anything of the sorts of data available in poor countries where the sector must play its most crucial role?

In this article, using rather limited data, we note with considerable alarm that steady labour intensity and corresponding employment expansion cannot be taken for granted. Where daily wages are but a fraction of hourly American wages, and where interest rates are a multiple of American rates, the more lavish use of materials and machinery compared with labour can nevertheless begin early.

Peru is the country selected for our study. During 1955–67 Peru had a relatively high national output growth rate of 5.6 per cent together with a moderate rate of inflation of about 9 per cent. Except for the devaluation years of 1958 and 1967, flourishing exports of fishmeal, copper, cotton, and sugar helped carry this rate of growth. Lima was one of the continent's fastest‐growing cities in population and building, particularly in squatter barriadas. But in the 1960s commercial conduction also grew at more than a 15 per cent compound rate, measured in square metres built, according to some estimates.1 During 1964–68, construction had high priority under President Fernando Belaunde, a professional architect. More U.S. foreign aid for housing (direct and guaranteed private loans) went to Peru in absolute terms during this period than to any other country. We shall analyse the consequences by examining (1) trends in relative costs, (2) relative output and import trends, and (3) data about receptivity to innovations in a sample of firms.     

Shedding Light on the Shadow Economy: A Nighttime Light Approach

Measuring the shadow economy is inherently difficult, but critical for understanding economic development. Using census data on formal and informal sectors in Cambodia, we document that 96.6 per cent of non-farm establishments do not formally register with the government, and their sales accounted for 76.6 per cent of total sales in 2011. Estimating their past sales from changes in nighttime light for 1993–2010, we find that both formal and informal firms increased their estimated sales. The share of informal sales increased from 68.8 per cent in 1993 to 76.6 per cent in 2011, suggesting that the informal sector increased quantitatively in both absolute and relative terms over time.     

Aid and Resource Mobilisation in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Role of Reverse Flows

This article seeks to ascertain the role of ‘reverse flows’ in explaining the observed limited impact of aid on resource mobilisation in Sub-Saharan Africa. It departs from the previous empirical literature on aid and resource mobilisation by abandoning the pervasive, but untenable, assumption that aid either displaces domestic saving (increases consumption) or increases investment. Some aid is, in fact, used to finance reverse flows (debt servicing, capital flight, and reserve accumulation). The evidence suggests that, for the period covering 1980 to 2006, nearly 50 per cent of aid to Sub-Saharan African countries was used to finance reverse flows.     

Policy design and public support for carbon tax: Evidence from a 2018 US national online survey experiment

Public support for policy instruments is influenced by perceptions of how benefits and costs are distributed across various groups. We examine different carbon tax designs outlining different ways to distribute tax revenues. Using a national online sample of 1,606 US respondents, we examine support for a $20/ton carbon tax that is: (1) revenue neutral: revenue is returned to citizens via tax cuts; (2) compensation-focused: revenue is directed to helping actors disproportionately hurt by the tax; (3) mitigation-focused: revenue funds projects reducing carbon emissions; and (4) adaptation-focused: revenue is directed to enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events. We find devoting revenue to mitigation raises overall support for carbon tax by 6.3 per cent versus the control (54.9 per cent) where no information on spending is provided. Other frames raise support in specific subgroups only. Revenue neutrality raises support among lower-income households (+6.6 per cent) and political independents (+9.4 per cent), while compensation increases support among lower-income repondents (+6.1 per cent).     

Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.     

The role of capital accumulation in economic development

In an open dual economy, the reallocation of factors to the industrial sector is accelerated whenever the region can sell its industrial product on a world market, or can invest at a level greater than domestic savings, by borrowing abroad. The industrialization is slowed, however, by any increase in the demand for ‘backward'‐sector products, as for example, when such products are demanded as inputs into the industrial production process. In the model presented here, these industrial input requirements are an important determinant of the growth of per capita income and, especially, the borrowing‐lending position of a developing region.     

Consumption,savings and investment by social class in Bangladesh: Does the rural sector support the Urban sector?

This article employs input‐output analysis and information from a social accounting matrix and the concept of net savings to examine savings, consumption and investment behaviour by various social classes in Bangladesh in urban and rural areas. Considerable differences between social classes can be identified in all three respects. A majority of the social classes in the rural sector does not appear to generate enough savings to sustain its consumption whereas the urban social classes do. There seems to be little difference in consumption pattern of the rural rich and the urban rich. There is considerable urban‐rural difference in the import intensities of consumption. The findings of this study based on the Hazari model do not establish the existence of urban bias but the problem seems to be one of ‘rich‐bias’ rather than urban‐bias per se. However, the Hazari model cannot capture all possible sources of urban bias and circumstantial evidence indicates concentration of advantages in the urban areas.     

The growth of Indian nitrogen fertilizer manufacture: Some lessons for industrial planning

Large‐scale manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers in India originated during the Second World War as a result of the interruption of the import of rice from Burma. The growth of production has been at the prodigious rate of 22 per cent per annum in the 17‐year period 1949/50–1965/6. Demand has never acted as a constraint; this suggests that agro‐industry can play an important part in an industrializing strategy for development. In spite of this success two negative features have characterized the economic history of fertilizer production: gestation lags and under‐utilized capacity. Had the establishments worked at design capacity and had the average gestation lag not exceeded three years, less than 60 per cent of the 2.1 million tons of nutrient imported into India during these 17 years would have been required. This highlights the need to include in planning models of output expansion both of these variables, getstation lag and low capacity utilization. Some of their causes have been exogenous to the industry. But a number are internal and recurrent. Unjustified technical risks, plant dis‐integration, faulty process selection and inadequate project appraisal in investment decision‐making. Attempts to reduce the balance of payments deficit have had a negative feedback on the foreign exchange flow by reducing the industry's average annual output. Such negative effects should be included in formulating import control, import substitution and export promotion policies. Finally the ubiquity of excess capacity and the invariance of labour force size with the degree of capacity utilization in this sector is shown to lead to large over‐estimates of the future required‐labour force when certain forecasting techniques are used, even in the absence of trends to increasing labour productivity.     

The Sacrifices of Micro-Borrowers in Ghana – A Customer-Protection Perspective on Measuring Over-Indebtedness

This article measures the over-indebtedness of micro-borrowers. It defines over-indebtedness from a customer-protection perspective, based on the borrowers' sacrifices. We analyse the sacrifices borrowers experience and find that 30 per cent of borrowers are over-indebted. We then test risk management indicators of debt problems as predictors of over-indebtedness. Over-indebtedness is strongly related to delinquency and the debt-to-income ratio but not to debt amounts or to multiple borrowing. Although our model correctly predicts 72.6 per cent of cases, even the best indicators identify only a few over-indebted borrowers. Risk management is not enough to protect customers against over-indebtedness but the industry needs to measure customer experiences directly.     

The impact of revenue diversification on municipal debts: comparing short-term and long-term debt levels

The extant literature has offered two competitive implications of revenue diversification: revenue stabilisation and fiscal illusion. Stabilisation helps governments have less revenue volatility, while fiscal illusion expands tax burdens through the increase in expenditure. The competitive views on revenue diversification leave a niche to explore the association between revenue diversification and debt levels in local governments. We estimate the static and dynamic effects of revenue diversification on both short-term and long-term debt levels in 150 fiscally standardised cities. Our findings show that local governments with greater revenue diversification are more likely to reduce short-term debts while expanding long-term debts. The findings imply that a stabilised revenue structure helps local governments better manage operational budgets but also invest in capital projects with greater debt capacity.     

Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data

Abstract

A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices, but few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This article explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa, for 2002–2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data at the product and outlet level. The empirical approach allows pass-through to be calculated over various horizons for different goods and services. The heterogeneity of pass-through for food sub-components is considerable. Switches between import and export parity pricing of maize are found significant for five out of ten food sub-components. Using actual weights from the CPI basket, overall pass-through to the almost 63 per cent of the CPI covered is about 30 per cent after two years, and higher for food.     

The impact of the Owen falls hydro‐electric project on the economy of Uganda 1

Inflation induced by an increase in the money supply may be conducive to economic growth, because it can be positively related to the savings ratio. This relationship is, however, limited by a certain rate of money supply which is associated with the maximum overall savings ratio. Treating money as a consumers’ good based upon Levhari‐Patinkin [1968], this study estimates a quadratic‐form savings function using international cross‐section data. It shows that the optimal rates of money supply are 11–12 per cent and 6–8 per cent in underdeveloped and developed countries respectively.     

The Return to Foreign Aid

Abstract

We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate of return on public capital.     

Theoretical and empirical foundations of HIPC debt sustainability targets

This article traces the origins of HIPC (Heavily Indebted Poor Country) debt sustainability targets. These targets are interpreted as ‘switching values’, below which countries are expected to avoid debt service problems but, as such, they do not take into account that countries encounter debt problems for a variety of reasons and at different levels of debt. It is likely that the ‘true’ switching value of the debt-to-export ratio of many HIPCs lie below the present target. Regarding the ‘fiscal window’ of the HIPC initiative, the lack of analytical basis for a 250 per cent target for the debt-torevenue ratio is noted, and the problems raised by the joint ‘openness-revenue’ condition are discussed. The article concludes that the sustainability targets, as presently applied, are not well supported in analytical terms.     

Embedded mercantilism and open regionalism: The crisis of a regional political project

This paper advances the argument that moves towards regional integration need to be understood as 'regional governance projects' undertaken by domestic actors and coalitions. Regional political projects--such as open regionalism--have roots in domestic structures, and it is this which defines the broad configuration of the regional political economy. On the basis of this framework the paper suggests, first, that the strategy of open regionalism was contingent on a particular configuration of power and interests in the domestic and external economy (embedded mercantilism). Second, this system of embedded mercantilism depended on a set of domestic coalitions between tradeable and non-tradeable sectors of the economy. The non-tradeable sector in Southeast Asia was entrenched within a particular system of political patronage. Third, the Asian crisis and other structural changes in the international economy have made these domestic coalitions less sustainable, thereby creating opportunities for new forms of regional governance projects.     

Avoiding crisis contagion: Poland’s case

This paper examines the major reasons for limited crisis contagion to Poland in the period 2007–09. At this time Poland was the only European Union (EU) member that grew in the midst of the Great Recession and financial crisis. The following analysis focuses on domestic polices and economics structure which made this growth possible. Poland’s modest levels of private and public debt, low share of mortgages in bank assets, limited decline in real estate prices, and proactive policies by domestic and foreign banks substantially buffered Poland’s financial sector. At the same time, real economy was aided by a high share of domestic consumption as opposed to exports, a favorable labor market structure, and timely financial assistance from the EU, all that shielded it from major crisis contagion.     

Central and East European Bank Responses to the Financial ‘Crisis’: Do Domestic Banks Perform Better in a Crisis than their Foreign-Owned Counterparts?

In the context of transition, nine out of the 10 post-communist countries that ultimately joined the European Union reluctantly privatised the bulk of their banking sectors with foreign capital. The financial crisis of 2008–2009 therefore sparked fears that foreign banks would remove their operations from their Central and East European markets because of a ‘home bias’ in lending. Such fears were predicated on the widely held beliefs that banks' loyalties lie with their home markets and that it is therefore desirable to protect domestic bank ownership to help combat an economic downturn. This essay casts doubt on the value of banking sector protectionism by comparing foreign and domestic bank behaviour in Central and Eastern Europe during the crisis. The essay finds no consistent relationship between domestic control and either limited economic vulnerability or countercyclical lending.