Inflation and the savings ratio across countries

Using cross section data, the paper develops and tests the hypothesis that the savings ratio is positively related to the rate of domestic inflation as long as inflation is mild, but negatively related if inflation is excessive. ‘Optimum’ rates for inflation can be derived, but the point estimates in many samples are not significantly different from zero. The model developed tries to capture any distorting effect that foreign capital inflows may have on the inflation‐saving relation, and also tries to distinguish the inflation hypothesis from other traditional hypotheses such as the life‐cycle hypothesis and the Keynesian ‘absolute’ income hypothesis.     

Empirical inflation models in developing countries: Sensitivity to the definition of inflation

Previous developing country inflation studies have demonstrated that the Harberger (monetarist) model's explanatory power may be quite sensitive to the time period or explanatory variables used. In this study, the model's sensitivity to the definition of the inflation rate variable itself ‐ the dependent variable ‐ is investigated. Using a cross‐section, time‐series data set of 19 developing nations, it is shown that the Harberger model is sensitive to the manner in which inflation is defined. Then, a similar investigation is conducted for another, more recently developed, model of the inflationary process (the Hanson model). This model exhibits less sensitivity to the choice of inflation variable.     

The relation between terrorism and domestic civil disorders

Abstract

Students of civil disorder in the United States look to such events for signs of an incipient tradition in the growth of urban terrorism, but the relation between these two forms of collective violence remains unclear. By examining the evolution of civil violence in New York City for nearly three hundred years, one gains a better grasp of the historically conservative nature of collective violence in this country and the conditions under which it could change into a more threatening tradition of political terrorism.     

On the relationship between human resources and development: Theory,methods and data

The article challenges simplistic one‐way models of the relation between education (human resources) and economic development. Diachronic analysis clearly indicates different patterns or trajectories linking the two variables through time in individual nations, with significant thresholds or transition points. The relation between educational levels and economic development is seen as part of the international division of labour, depending on the degree of national autonomy, and on the relations between countries rather than the differences between them. Education may influence development through changes in the system of social stratification as well as through the expansion of knowledge. The diachronic approach is used to test these relations in a number of developing countries.     

Cooperation,not cost savings: explaining duration of shared service agreements

Among local governments, inter-municipal cooperation is the growing reform; but the literature is silent regarding the determinants of longer-term shared service agreements. We conducted a survey of all local governments in New York State in 2013 to assess the level of sharing across 29 public services. The duration of shared service agreements varies from 1 to 80 years. What explains this difference? Our hierarchical linear model shows that service sharing agreements fall along a cooperation continuum, where cost savings are a determinant of shorter agreements, while the public values of service quality and cross-jurisdictional coordination explain longer-term agreements. We also find that positive past experience with sharing partners increases the duration of sharing agreements. Our analysis lays the foundation for new theories of shared services that build directly from the benefits of improved regional coordination, inter-municipal reciprocity and service quality, not from theories based solely on competition and costs.     

The relation between rate of growth and level of development

The paper tests the hypothesis that countries pass through three successive phases of development: an initial phase of stationary or slow growth; a phase when the growth rate is increasing (accelerating growth), and finally, a phase of decreasing (decelerating) growth. Since the regressions turn out to be significant at the 0.1 per cent level, it may be taken that the hypothesis is confirmed. An explanation is offered and deviant cases are discussed. One of the consequences of the established regularity is that the gap is widening between the least developed and other countries, but the countries at the intermediate level of development are catching up. Thus the usual twofold classification of countries will have to be replaced by a threefold one: less developed, developing and developed countries.     

Aggregate consumption,interest rates and inflation in LDCS: An error correction model

This article explores the relationship between the real interest rate and the consumption‐saving decisions in LDCs following the Error Correction Methodology. The model also includes an income term, the inflation rate and a term for inflation uncertainty. The main conclusion drawn from this exercise is that, for low‐inflation countries there is a positive and stronger interest rate effect on saving while this effect is less clear (and not significant) for most high‐inflation countries. Also, the results show that for at least half of the countries in the sample, an EC model with a unit elasticity restriction seems to be an adequate representation of the data.     

论民主社会主义与科学社会主义的区别

民主社会主义是二战后西方社会中最重要的政治思潮之一。作为一种改良主义的政治思想体系,民主社会主义与科学社会主义是对立的,两者间在指导思想、追求的目标、依靠的社会力量、实现社会主义的道路和方法、党的性质和作用等方面都有原则性的区别。当然,意识形态上的对手并不一定成为政治上的敌人,两者可以在坚持各自主张下和平竞争,甚至可以超越意识形态的分歧开展交流和互利合作。     

互联网信息侵权案件举证责任分配问题初探

随着互联网的迅猛发展,人类进入了大数据时代的新纪元,互联网企业提供的云计算,对于解决纷繁复杂的大数据显得至关重要。随着这股浪潮同时出现的还有互联网客户的烦恼,越来越多的电子信息侵权行为随之发生,网络维权成为一大社会难题,许多消费者往往在大数据之中处于弱势,在搜集证据方面更是困难重重,举证维权成为该类维权案件的重灾区。举证难一直是维权的瓶颈,反映到诉讼中就是当前举证责任分配原则还不合理。电子证据作为新出现的证据类型也在证据清单中崭露头角,一个司法举证的新时期就此到来,本文试图通过对互联网电子信息侵权的现状进行分析,揭示互联网侵权纠纷中证据的特征和举证的难度,在比较各家学说之后得出在互联网信息侵权纠纷中应有条件地适用举证责任倒置的原则,最后对互联网公司据该举证责任分配原则提出了抗辩和举证建议,以缓解当前举证责任分配中产生的矛盾。     

Income distribution,the structure of consumer expenditure and development policy

This paper examines how and why the effects of inequality on the structure of consumption must be taken into account in development policy. It shows that, by utilising the concept of the ‘representative’ consumer, the role of income distribution as a determinant of the structure of consumption can be modelled in a theoretically consistent and empirically constructive way. The importance and methods of introducing consumer preferences and needs into the model are also analysed. Then using a simple Greek input‐output model several hypotheses about income redistribution are empirically investigated. The results indicate that egalitarian redistributions induce favourable employment and balance of payments effects, especially when the planner takes into account other sources of variation in consumer demand arising from differences in preferences across households. Rises in inequality are likely to cause comparatively more serious opposite effects and therefore must be avoided.     

On the Relationship between Political Science and Administrative Science in Germany

The theoretical and empirical analysis of administrative activities has been an important area of research since the establishment of political science as an academic discipline in Germany at the end of the 1960s. But is administrative science still a significant part of political science in Germany today? I argue here that in Germany a political science oriented administrative science has developed from a science focused on public administration, that is, on organizational questions, to one focused on public policies and thus on questions concerning the conditions and consequences of political problem solving and control (Steuerung). The question of the internal organization of government is increasingly regarded as an irrelevant one; in addition, the institutional promotion and funding of political science administration research has dramatically decreased since the 1970s. Today's new challenges (economization and internationalization) for both government and public administration seem to exceed the capability of political science administrative research. These challenges open up new opportunities, however, since, in the search for solutions beyond the dichotomy of market/managerialism on the one hand and traditional bureaucracy and state government on the other, political science in particular regains more importance. As will be shown, there are now tendencies which indicate that political science administrative research might encounter a stronger political demand. If the consequent research is able to find a new mixture of theory and practice, this in turn could help revitalize political science administrative research in Germany.