The impact of direct trade controls and an overvalued exchange rate on factor proportions in manufacturing

This paper is an analysis of certain aspects of manufacturing development under a regime of import and foreign exchange controls, where such controls are accompanied by an overvalued exchange rate. The analytical framework is a modification of the ‘effective rate of protection’ analysis. The argument proceeds from the fact that the overvalued rate represents a subsidy on imported capital equipment and intermediate goods. Two implications are drawn from the analysis. First and most important, the subsidy on imported intermediate goods will exacerbate the oft‐noted tendency of import‐substitute industry to take the form of ‘processing and packaging’ operations with minimal domestic value added. Second, the subsidy on imported capital equipment will give entrepreneurs an incentive to substitute imported capital equipment for domestic labour.     

The terms of trade experience of Britain since the nineteenth century

The terms of trade of Britain exhibited a declining trend in the first half of the nineteenth century. But after two decades of transitional confusion, they started to move upwards. The explanation lies in the fact that the reversal of the trend corresponded to a change in the structure of British export trade from the dominance of traditional textile products towards other manufactures. Unlike the traditional textile products, these other manufactures had little indigenous counterpart in the agrarian countries with which Britain had expanding trade relations. So while cost reduction through technical progress led to a rapid fall in the prices of cotton textiles under stiff competition at home and abroad, producers in the newer sectors did not have to respond much to this type of cost‐reducing technical progress that spread to these sectors in the latter period. Thus, as Prebisch and Singer argued, the classical scheme of distribution of the gains from technical progress through trade that was supposed to have operated in the days of classical economists did not operate later on.     

Partner reciprocity,telecommunications flows and balance of trade patterns between the United States and latin America

From 1982 to 1994, the balance of trade deficit for U.S. telecommunications services increased by tenfold. The Central and South American countries contributed greatly to this increase. Our analysis identifies partner reciprocity as a core issue of the international long-distance industry. We apply an economic anthropology perspective to suggest that the antecedent conditions of cultural distance, economic nearness and relative country-risk will affect a foreign partner's reciprocity and examine U.S.- Latin American contracts over 11 years to test our respective hypotheses.     

Commodity export dependence and the choice of exchange rate regime: Viewing the poles from Saudi Arabia

As financial crises followed capital account opening in the 1990s the hard peg of a currency board regime was seen as the remaining ‘polar’ alternative to flexible exchange rates. With the Argentine peso devaluation of early 2002 suggesting that the fundamental requirement may be peg abandonment through either floating or ‘dollarisation’, the issue as it confronts highly open LDSs reliant on a narrow export base of primary commodities has been substantially neglected. Under pressure to increase financial openness, and with exchange rate variability posing a threat to their price level stability, the study asks whether pegging could remain an effective choice for such economies. Saudi Arabia has combined extreme commodity dependence with financial openness under a rigid peg and her experience is examined for the wider lessons it may contain. While sensitive to fluctuating confidence in the exchange rate evidence on demand for the Riyal suggests that, with appropriate policy support, currency pegs remain appropriate for commodity-dependent economies.     

Fair trade slippages and Vietnam gaps: the ideological fantasies of fair trade coffee

Fair trade coffee sales have boomed since the late 1980s, making it one of the most recognised forms of ‘ethical consumerism’ in the world. Around the same time exports of lower quality coffee beans from Vietnam also boomed, launching Vietnam from an insignificant coffee exporter to the world’s second largest with historically unprecedented speed. These disparate projects have had significant impacts on thousands of farmers – with Vietnam’s new class of coffee producers representing three and a half times the number of coffee families certified by fair trade. Northern actors, however, have given far more public and positive attention to fair trade. This article will argue that this difference does not stem from a strictly objective appraisal of the relative merits and shortcomings of each project, but from the compatibility of fair trade with ‘free trade’ and its emotionally charged ideological fantasies. This includes unconscious beliefs and desires around individualism, voluntarism, democracy and the affirmation of the exaggerated power of Northern consumers – as opposed to the Southern agency and complicated collective action implied by Vietnamese coffee statecraft.     

An investigation in exchange rate behavior of emerging countries

This study deals with the relative performance of major exponential smoothing models (Simple exponential (SES), Holt's double parameter exponential (HTPES) and Winter's three parameter exponential (WTPES) used in forecasting exchange rates of emerging countries.     

The Oslo Talks: Revealing the Turkish Government's Secret Negotiations with the PKK

This article explores the extent to which the secret talks influenced the path of official negotiations toward ending Turkey's Kurdish conflict, which the scholarly literature has yet to assess. Utilizing interviews with key political actors, this article aims to close this gap by assessing the Oslo talks (2006–2011) as the most comprehensive secret contact between the Turkish government and Kurdistan Workers' Party. It demonstrates that the secret track is not merely a “pre-negotiation” stage aimed at de-escalating the violent conflict ahead of official talks, but also a crucial part of the negotiation stage aimed at establishing a final political agreement.     

The Turkish Constitutional Court,laicism and the headscarf issue

From 1989 onwards, the Turkish Constitutional Court justified the headscarf ban in universities by citing laicism. Interestingly, in 2014, the Court found the headscarf ban in courts unconstitutional and revoked it by again citing laicism as the main reason. How can this seemingly paradoxical practice be explained? This article traces the trajectory of the headscarf issue in Turkey by analysing and contextualising the Constitutional Court decisions. In order to explain how and why the Constitutional Court issued two opposing views of the headscarf ban, this article focuses on the changing political climate and legal developments that took place in Turkey between 2008 and 2014.     

The state under Siege: The drug trade and organised crime in Tajikistan

This article explores the impact of the drug trade on security and stability in Tajikistan. In order to capture the multifaceted nature of this relationship, the effects on territory, population, state institutions, and the idea of the state are examined. The types of threats affecting these components of the state are discussed. These include societal security in the form of addiction and drug-related diseases; the military threat, most notably manifested by the merger of crime and terror; economic and political threats resulting from a criminalised economic and political system; and the relationship between the drug trade and the legitimacy of the state.     

Doing more with less: the Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkish elections,and the uncertain future of Turkish politics

The outcome of Turkey's June 2011 elections temporarily quelled – though by no means entirely put to rest – growing concern over the creeping autocratic tendencies of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). To ensure that democracy remains durable, the AKP must now clearly demonstrate that it is willing to shun heavy-handed tactics and instead engage the opposition in a genuine dialog regarding important matters of constitutional change, especially those related to individual rights and identity issues. A slide toward autocracy has been an all-too-common pitfall in Turkish politics over the years. Should it so choose, the AKP is well poised to break the cycle at this critical juncture in Turkish politics.