Observing FDI spillover transmission channels: evidence from firms in Uganda

Abstract

We observe and analyse three intra-industry foreign direct investment (FDI) spillover transmission channels using unique firm-level data collected from on-site interviews and observations regarding domestic and foreign firms operating in Uganda in 2015. Our main results are: (1) the spillover effects mainly depend on the channel(s) by which they occur (the competition channel is most important while spillover benefits through the worker mobility and the imitation channels are less prevalent) and (2) both positive and negative spillover effects occur within the same channel and, moreover, effects differ by channel for the same case. These are novel and challenging findings that have not yet been recognised in theoretical and empirical research on FDI spillovers. Our results suggest that long-term pecuniary spillover effects are predominantly stimulated via the competition channel and show that only limited short-term and long-term technological spillover effects occur through the imitation and the movement of workers channels. These channels are not only less prevalent, but also appear to be constrained by competition-determined spillovers. We are confident that these directions for future research will have a high pay-off because, as shown by this exploratory fieldwork, a more complete picture of the spillover effects is reached when the channels are considered simultaneously.     

Spatial Spillover Effects from Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam

This paper investigates the role of inter-firm interaction and geographical proximity in the determination of productivity spillover effects from foreign to domestic firms. We developed an estimation approach using the Spatial Durbin model and applied this to a firm-level dataset from Vietnam from 2000–2005. We found that productivity spillovers diminished when the distance between foreign and domestic firms increases and that interactions among local firms amplify the spillovers. Within short distances, the presence of foreign firms creates positive backward, negative forward and horizontal spillovers. Based on the findings, several implications are extracted regarding promotion policy for foreign direct investment in developing countries.     

Local technological capability and productivity spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan manufacturing sector

This article examines intra‐industry spillovers from FDI in Uruguayan manufacturing plants in 1988, to determine whether differences in the technology gap between locally‐owned plants and foreign affiliates have any impact on the relation between local productivity and foreign presence. We find a positive and statistically significant spillover effect only in a sub‐sample of locally‐owned plants with moderate technology gaps vis‐à‐vis foreign firms. Our interpretation is that there are firm‐specific differences in the ability to absorb spillovers, and that these may explain some of the contradictory findings of earlier spillover studies.     

Learning and Behavioural Spillovers of Nutritional Information

This paper provides evidence for informational spillovers within urban slums in Chandigarh, India. I identify three groups, a treatment group, a neighbouring spillover group, and a non-adjacent pure control group. Mothers of children (aged three to six years) enrolled in government day-care centres are given recipe books in the treatment group to reduce malnutrition in their children. Spillovers to neighbouring (untreated) mothers can be through social learning or imitation. Results from a difference-in-differences analysis show that nutritional knowledge measured through a quiz increases among neighbouring untreated mothers relative to a control group. Neighbouring mothers exhibit learning spillovers, changes in dietary behaviour and a reduction in food expenditure regardless of their level of literacy. Spillovers not only raise the cost effectiveness of health information programmes but are important to consider when designing an experiment as causal effects of treatments can be attenuated if the spillover group is used as a control group.     

Survey Article: Publication Bias in the Literature on Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers

In this article we conduct a large quantitative survey of the literature on horizontal and vertical spillovers from foreign direct investment (FDI). We create a unique database of spillover estimates for each country examined in the literature. Next, we estimate the average effect corrected for publication selection bias (the preferential selection of positive and significant estimates for publication). Our results suggest that an average reported estimate of backward spillovers is statistically significant. Publication selection is evident only among studies published in peer-reviewed journals, and only among the estimates that authors consider most important. Authors with small data sets engage in more publication selection. The intensity of selection in the literature decreases over time, which supports the economics-research-cycle hypothesis.     

The Truth about Trade: The Real Impact of Liberalisation

The usual perspective on technology spillovers from FDI sees the MNC subsidiary as a passive actor. It presumes that the technological superiority that spreads from subsidiaries to other firms in the host economy is initially created outside it by MNC parent companies, and is delivered to subsidiaries via international technology transfer. The role of subsidiaries is little more than to act as a ‘leaky container’ lying between the technology transfer pipeline and the absorption of spillovers by domestic firms. This paper suggests a different model in which a substantial part of the potential for spillover is created within local subsidiaries as a result of their own knowledge-creating and accumulating activities in the host economy. We explore empirically the effects of these activities on technology spillovers from FDI using data for industrial firms in Argentina over the period 1992–96. The analysis suggests that significant results can be obtained incorporating subsidiaries' own technological activities as an explanatory variable of the spillover process.     

Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America

We investigate the underlying causes of political instability in a panel of 18 Latin American countries from 1971–2000. We test whether regime type, regime durability, factionalism, income inequality, ethnic diversity, ethnic discrimination, regional spillover effects, urban growth and macroeconomic variables matter for instability. We find several important results: (1) democracy has a significant negative effect on instability that is robust to several alternative specifications; (2) factionalised political systems experience higher instability; (3) income inequality, ethnic fractionalisation, and urban growth have important nonlinear effects on instability; and (4) of the macroeconomic variables we study, only openness to trade has a significant negative effect on instability.     

Accumulating Technology and Location Spillovers Among Firms in Taiwan's Electronics Industry

Using firm-level panel data from the Taiwanese Census of Manufactures for 1986 and 1991 in the context of a modified selection model, we focus on three activities that contribute to the productivity growth of firms in the electronics industry: research and development, direct foreign investment and exports. In particular we address the issue of whether, in addition to the direct benefits of these activities, there are spillovers to other firms within the same four-digit industry or within the same geographical county. Our empirical results indicate that while the survival and direct productivity growth effects of R&D, exports and DFI are positive and statistically significant, intra-industry and geographical spillover effects are consistently present only for the export activity. That is, a firm's expected future TFP is positively and significantly affected by being located in a county and industry with more export activity. In addition, there is some evidence that the indirect effects generated by DFI firms, in the form of location spillover benefits to other firms, are also positive and significant. Finally, the empirical results indicate that the above direct and indirect benefits of the technological activities under study accrue principally to Taiwan's small and medium enterprises, rather than its large firms.     

Foreign Direct Investment Spillovers and Productivity Growth in Indonesian Garment and Electronics Manufacturing

Inflows of foreign direct investment generate externalities that spill over to domestic firms and raise their productivity. This article examines the extent of spillover effects of foreign direct investment for firms in the highly disaggregated garment (ISIC 3221) and electronics industries (ISIC 3832) in Indonesia. Both are export-intensive industries, but differ greatly in technological sophistication and labour intensity. Changes in both the productivity level and rate of growth in each industry are decomposed into the effects of technological change, technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change and then the impacts of spillovers on each component and on total productivity are estimated. The findings suggest that foreign direct investment generates a positive effect on total productivity change, technical efficiency change, technological change, and scale efficiency change in the garment industry. In contrast, foreign direct investment contributes significantly negatively to total productivity, technological change and scale efficiency change, but has no significant effect on technical efficiency change in the electronics industry.     

Missing Links: Foreign Investment and Industrial Development in Costa Rica and Mexico

This article offers an analytical framework for understanding the missing links between FDI and development, and applies it to the high technology sectors of Costa Rica and Mexico, the two countries in Latin America that have attracted the highest percentage of FDI in manufacturing. Since the advancement of knowledge-based assets in this sector is at the heart of structural change and development, we focus specifically on the conditions that enable or prevent positive knowledge spillovers from FDI. We identify two main reasons for the missing links between high-tech FDI and the development of indigenous knowledge-based assets in Costa Rica and Mexico. First, their governments did not have a coherent strategy, which would have spelled out the needed government policies to advance national capabilities, overcome market failures, and support the integration of national producers into TNCs’ global production networks. Second, there were limitations on the spillover potential from FDI. In Costa Rica and Mexico, technology or scale requirements for inputs made it difficult for large TNCs to source domestically beyond simple inputs like packaging materials. In Mexico, fundamental changes in the organization of global production chains in the computer industry led TNCs to rely on their global contract manufacturers rather than work with potential Mexican input suppliers.     

Understanding the Evolution of Rice Technology in China – From Traditional Agriculture to GM Rice Today

This paper provides an historical survey of the evolution of rice technology in China, from the traditional farming system to genetically modified rice today. Using sociotechnological analytical framework, it analyses rice technology as a socio-technical ensemble – a complex interaction of material and social elements, and discusses the specificity of technology development and its socio-technical outcomes. It points to two imperatives in rice variety development: wholesale transporting agricultural technology and social mechanism to developing countries are likely lead to negative consequences; indigenous innovation including deploying GM technology for seed varietal development and capturing/cultivating local knowledge will provide better solutions.     

Short-Term Impacts of Solar Lanterns on Child Health: Experimental Evidence from Bangladesh

We implemented a 16-month randomised field experiment in unelectrified areas of Bangladesh to identify health impacts of solar lanterns among school-aged children. Our analysis of various health-related indicators – self-reporting, spirometers, and professional medical checkups – showed modest improvements in eye redness and irritation but no noticeable improvement in respiratory symptoms among treated students. Varying the number of solar products received within treatment households did not alter these results. This limited health benefit was not caused by nonutilisation of the products by treated children, spillover effects from treated to control students, or contamination resulting from unfavourable family cooking environments.     

Collective Remittances and Transnational Coproduction: the 3 × 1 Program for Migrants and Household Access to Public Goods in Mexico

Migrant hometown associations (HTAs) are mobilizing collective remittances to improve social welfare in their countries of origin. This paper assesses the effect of transnational coproduction of public goods in migrants’ places of origin by studying the 3?×?1 Program for Migrants. The 3?×?1 Program is a national social spending program in which the Mexican local, state, and federal government matches HTAs’ collective remittances to improve public services through cross-border public–private partnerships. The statistical analysis across municipalities that do and do not participate in the 3?×?1 Program shows that coproduction improves citizens’ access to public sanitation, drainage, and water, although not electricity. Moreover, a negative and statistically significant interaction term between 3?×?1 Program expenditures and family remittances reveals a substitution effect: in the presence of transnational coproduction, migrant households are less likely to improve public goods using family remittance resources, but in the absence of 3?×?1 Program participation they continue to improve their hometowns with family remittances. This research offers a theoretical mechanism and supporting empirical evidence of an important kind of intermediary institution improving social welfare in migrant places of origin.     

Are Tax Havens Good Neighbours? FDI Spillovers and Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of tax havens on non-tax haven countries in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI). We analyze the importance of agglomeration effects by including FDI inflow levels in tax havens and capture geographic spillovers by measuring proximity to the nearest tax haven. Our analysis yields several interesting findings. First, using panel data for 142 countries, we find evidence of positive spillovers from tax havens to nearby developing countries, but not to nearby developed countries. Second, restricting our panel to developing countries, we find the positive effect of tax haven FDI on developing countries to be robust. Third, we find that geographic distance matters for financial flows: developing countries which are the closest to a nearby tax haven benefit the most in terms of FDI inflows. This result is robust to accounting for spatial interdependence of FDI.     

Consumption and Happiness

We examine the relationship between (relative) consumption and happiness using panel data for China, an important developing country. We find that consumption has a positive effect on happiness. An increase in the average consumption of those of the same age, education and gender at the community level has a positive effect on happiness, consistent with a signalling effect, while an increase in the consumption of the highest spenders in this group engenders a jealousy effect. There is mixed evidence that conspicuous consumption and consumption that increases social connectedness increases happiness, while relative deprivation in visible consumption has strong negative effects on happiness. Our findings add to the literature on the effect of relativities in influencing individual happiness.     

International Trade,R&D Spillovers and Productivity: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing Industry

This paper examines the effect of trade facilitated R&D spillovers on the productivity of manufacturing firms in India, inter-sectoral variation in the effect on productivity and the importance of firms' investment in R&D, technology imports and plant and machinery in enhancing the productivity effect. Using firm level panel data, the study shows that R&D spillovers have a significant effect on productivity and that this effect is greater in technology-intensive industries. The paper also shows that firms' investment in plant and machinery enhances the productivity effect of R&D spillovers. The paper provides detailed micro-level evidence on the argument that trade openness promotes technological progress in developing countries.     

Family Ties and Socio-Economic Outcomes in High vs Low Income Countries

Alesina and Giuliano illustrate that strong family ties lead to lower geographical mobility and reduced labour force participation of young and female individuals. We extend their analysis by arguing that the effect of strong family ties on economic outcomes depends on a country’s level of economic and institutional development. This cross-country heterogeneity arises because strong family ties not only foster traditional family values (which have disruptive effects on economic outcomes), but also provide economically valuable social networks – especially in societies characterised by weak institutions and limited market access. Empirical evidence using the European and World Value Surveys (EVS/WVS) are supportive of our theoretical argument.     

Governance Strategies and Welfare Effects: Vertical Integration and Contracts in the Catfish Sector in Vietnam

Abstract

Using an original dataset from the Vietnamese catfish sector, we study the impact of vertical coordination options on household welfare and the implications of different stages of vertical coordination for the success of the whole sector. The welfare gain from contract farming and employment on processor-owned estate farms is estimated using a maximum simulated likelihood estimator. Our results show positive welfare effects from participating in contract farming, but not from employment on processor-owned estate farms. The results imply that contract farming presents opportunities for economic growth, but additional effort is required to make the contracts more accessible to smallholders.     

Service quality and the optimum number of members in intermunicipal cooperation: The case of emergency primary care services in Norway

Intermunicipal cooperation (IMC) is often used as a mean to reap scale benefits. Most studies on the effects of IMC focus on cost savings, while service quality is overlooked. In this study, the focus is set on input quality in a service characterized by high asset specificity and need for redundancy: emergency primary care. We analyze how mode of governance affect performance by (1) measuring whether IMC versus single-municipal production affects input quality and (2) identifying optimum scale of operation; effect of the number of participants in the cooperation on input quality. The findings indicate that cooperation weakens the input quality of medical workforce, but that this negative effect is balanced out as the number of participants increases, indicating that cooperation needs to reach a certain size to achieve optimum scale of operation. Concerning equipment, both cooperation in general and an increasing number of participants decrease the input quality.     

The relative importance of family planning and development for fertility reduction: Critique of research and development of theory

3 recent studies about the relative effects of family planning and development are reviewed in an effort to point out their limitations and to augment them. A tentative theoretical framework is presented from which the problem of fertility reduction may be viewed. Also presented is an analysis of the "outliers" in 1 of the 3 studies. This analysis involves consideration of macrosocial and contextual aspects of different nations as a supplement to other analyses. Mauldin and Berelson (1978) and Tsui and Bogue (1978) used indicators of social setting and family planning effort to explain declines in, respectively, crude birthrate between 1965 and 1975, and total fertility rates between 1968 and 1975. The 2 studies used nearly identical sets of explanatory variables. With both studies using the same indicators, except for "labor force," it is not surprising that the results were the same. The results were previously obtained by Freedman and Berelson (1976), who also used the Lapham Mauldin index of planning effort along with similar indicators of social setting. Freedman and Berelson found that birthrate declines could be explained better by program effort (which independently explained 17% of the variance in crude birthrate (CBR) declines) than by social setting (which independently accounted for 7% of that variance), and that the 1972 birthrate itself was similarly explained (15% of the variance attributed to program effort alone, 5% to social setting alone). Mauldin and Berelson obtained nearly identical results. In the Tsui and Bogue study, the contribution of the 1968 level of fertility was the dominant influence on the 1975 total fertility rate. The standardized regression coefficient indicated that previous fertility explained 50-60% of subsequent fertility by direct relationship, a figure comparable to the social setting family planning interaction effects (44-58%) in the 2 other studies. Much of this discussion is devoted to an analysis of the "outliers" in the exploratory data analysis done by Sykes for Mauldin and Berelson (1978). The outliers in Sykes' exploratory data analysis were divided along 2 dimensions. The first involves the relationship between predicted and actual reductions in fertility. The 2nd dimension refers to the independent variables used to predict the fertility declines. This analysis involves analysis of contextual variables and an analysis of distributional variables. It is limited by missing data, but the analysis of Freedman and Berelson (1976), Mauldin and Berelson (1978), and Tsui and Bogue (1978) is plagued by missing variables: contextual variables; distributional variables; and unique national, regional, or local circumstances. These can only be adequately revealed by case studies and may be important influences on fertility behavior. Effects of family planning and social setting may be conditioned by contextual variables (e.g., island status as in Taiwan), or unique circumstances (e.g., coercion as in India), and distribution appears to have an effect of its own.