Macroeconomic conditions and political instability: An empirical analysis

This article uses statistical methods to examine the relationship between two key macroeconomic indicators—inflation and economic growth—and four measures of political instability—peaceful unrest, violent unrest, coups d’etat, and changes of government. Using a panel research design and fixed effects regression analysis, I examine first whether contemporaneous relationships exist between these two groups of variables and then the direction of causality between them. Peaceful unrest clearly produces higher inflation and slower growth. Oddly, coups d’etat seem to producelower inflation, and there is some evidence that reverse causation may operate here as well—that high inflation mayreduce the likelihood of coups. Slow economic growth is associated with higher levels of violent unrest and a higher likelihood of coups and changes of government, but the direction of causality in these relationships is not clear. These findings, taken together, suggest that the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and political instability runs primarily from the latter to the former, raising doubts about the widely held view that poor economic conditions generally produce unrest and instability. Mark J. Gasiorowski is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Louisiana State University. He is currently working on a project focusing on the relationship between democracy and macroeconomic conditions.     

Export instability and the domestic economy: Questions of causality

The conventional view concerning the impact of export instability on the domestic economies of developing countries is one of pessimism. Export instability is thought to adversely affect the short‐run stability and longer‐run growth of income. Empirical evidence on these matters is, however, inconclusive. This article applies a Granger/Sims reduced form approach to examining whether export instability generates short‐run instability in domestic income. For each of a sample of 20 trade‐dependent countries the results obtained strongly support the contention that export instability induces short‐run macroeconomic instability.     

China: alternative futures

What alternatives are available to China in the next one or two decades? `More of the same' is not a likely scenario, because one-party rule is not optimal for coping with the challenges of modernization and global interdependence. A second model, Singapore's authoritarian capitalism, appeals to many CCP leaders. But Singapore's scale and way of life are so different that its example cannot be very relevant to China. Nor does the Soviet imperial model fit, because China does not suffer from imperial overreach as did the USSR. The post-Soviet Russian model—a move from rigid hierarchy to free enterprise anarchy—could await China. Both countries have lacked institutions of civil society that could stabilize the country if central authority collapses. Another alterative would be a return to regionalism, spurred by economic and ethnic differences within China. Some PRC leaders hope to find a Chinese way that transcends other models, but this is not realistic. The most useful model for China and the world would be a gradual transition from authoritarianism to multi-party democracy, as has taken place in Taiwan. In one or two decades, China could edge in that direction. If so, animosities between the mainland and Taiwan would also diminish, removing a thorn from U.S.–Chinese relations. Opportunities for mutual gain may then overshadow present tensions.     

Putin's militocracy? An alternative interpretation of Siloviki in contemporary Russian politics

This article challenges the perception of the rising numbers of siloviki in Russian politics as a conscious strategy and expression of a more authoritarian policy direction pursued by President Putin. Contextualising the phenomenon within the framework of the system of elite recruitment in contemporary Russia, and engaging in a micro-level study of individual siloviki, the article argues that the role of these figures is more modest than often asserted and the possibility of a coordinated ‘siloviki project’ is unlikely.     

Education vouchers: A neglected alternative

The purpose of this analysis is to evaluate the use of vouchers as an education policy alternative. Three alternative education voucher schemes are analyzed according to the following criteria for policy evaluation: economic efficiency, equality of opportunity, equality of outcome, individual freedom, and paternalism. Each of the voucher proposals discussed here emphasizes different evaluative criteria. In determining which of these alternatives might be considered as an education policy alternative, analysts need to be aware of the potential trade-offs involved with each voucher plan.     

Organizational theory and structure: An analysis of three perspectives

This article examines three contemporary organizational theories as they relate to organization structure. The three approaches selected are: social systems delimitation, organization learning, and organizational theory as metaphors. Each view represents a different approach to issues concerning the direction of organization theory and design. It will be argued that, in many respects, the future development of organizational theory will, to a large extent, build upon these approaches and the issues they pose for organization design.     

美国出口管制政策改革及前景

为促进出口、扩大就业和恢复经济增长,奥巴马政府上台后,启动了美国新一轮出口管制改革。此次改革的重点内容是调整管制物项清单,以集中精力加强对最关键技术和产品的出口管制。实质性改革将围绕“四个统一”展开,具体分“三步走”。目前改革已经进入关键阶段。美国出口管制改革将直接或间接对中美贸易、中国安全环境等方面带来影响。     

Sex differences in earnings: An analysis of Malaysian wage data

The conventional human capital earnings function is applied to a rich set of Malaysian wage data in an attempt to determine the origins of sex differences in average earnings. Several findings are of interest, the first being that the relationships estimated from the earnings function are similar to those typically reported for non‐LDCs. Second, less than a third of the average monthly wage difference between the sexes of about 34 per cent appears to be the consequence of either females having lower (measured) productivity than males, or females receiving lower rates of return to human capital than males. The major part of the earnings difference is apparently a consequence of employment distributions: females are much more likely to be in the low‐paying occupations.     

Budgeting information resources: Some alternative approaches

As concern over public sector efficiency and effectiveness has grown, attention has turned to budgetingressurces not heretofore budgeted well. This paper foctlses upon one such resource--the information resource--and examines implications for the improvement of public services and management decisions. In the pas:, managers have not viewed information as a resource to be managed as we have human and financial resources. With the rapid growth of information technology and its increasing use, we are becoming more aware of the costs of information and the need to budget for information services. We argue that information resources should be visible, traceable and chargeable. Alternative styles of decision making/budgeting are identified built around two methods of information use: one is called the input-oriented approach, the other, the output-oriented approach. The input-oriented approach is based upon the concept of incrementalism while the output-oriented approach reflects the rationalistic decision style. These approaches are further broken down into four modes of budgeting information resources. The characteristics of each of these modes are identified, analyzed and problems discussed.     

Foreign patent monopolies in developing countries: An empirical analysis

This paper presents data on the patenting practice of patent holders resident in industrialized countries in Africa. It is confined to such patents taken out by Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tanzania, and the states whose patent legislation is administered by the Office Africain et Malgache de la Propriété Indus‐trielle (OAMPI): Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Dahomey, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Malagasy Republic, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Togo, and Upper Volta. These countries account for nearly four‐fifths of the total patents in force andlor applied for in Africa (excluding Rhodesia and South Africa).¹

In particular, the paper tries to throw some light on the importance of developing countries for foreign patenting, the motivation of foreign patent‐holders to take out patents in these countries, the actual transfer of patented technology, and the reasons for the lack of such a transfer. The paper complements the extensive work on foreign technology and foreign patents in Latin America, especially by C. V. Vaitsos [1972] and the Junta del Acuerdo de Cartagena [1971]. It also seeks to test the theoretical assumption that patents in developing countries support the transfer of technology.²     

An analysis of mergers and acquisitions in Mexico: 1985-1996

The recent devaluation of the Mexican peso and the resulting “Mexican syndrome” has opened up a world of opportunities for foreign investors. Mexico with all of its economic problems is still seen by many investors as a sound economy with the necessary ingredients to stage a strong comeback. Economic crises often lead to an escalation of corporate restructuring such as mergers, acquisitions and joint-ventures, both, domestic as well as cross-border. This paper examines the M&A trends in Mexico over the period 1985-1996.

The results indicate that cross-border M&A deals have increased during the nineties, with Europe being a major participant since 1995. As far as the industrial sectors are concerned, the study shows that very few M&A deals have been completed in the construction, transportation, and petroleum industries. The managers of multinational firms should take note of this and public administrators should attempt to attract foreign capital towards these sectors. A sound distribution infrastructure is very essential in order to attract much needed foreign capital to the country.

The study also finds that relatively few cross-border M&As have been completed with state-owned enterprises. With the aggressive reforms of the Zedillo government and the privatization of the transportation, electricity, and petroleum sectors, there is bound to be an increase in competition and opportunities for investments in these sectors.

Finally, managers of multinational corporations who are targeting Mexico, should be fully aware of the differences in culture and ownership status of target firms. This study shows that a large number of the deals have been done with privately-owned firms, and would therefore need good negotiation skills.     

Ethnic versus organizational cultures: The bureaucratic alternative

It has been suggested that the common values and beliefs of an organization's culture can be used to control employee behavior. However, the use of organizational culture to control behavior assumes that employees either already have, or can be inculcated with common values and beliefs. The flow of immigrants across national borders increases the diversity of organization workforces. This diversity may include employees who hold values and beliefs associated with their membership in different ethnic cultures. It may be difficult or impossible to infuse common values and beliefs in such a diverse workforce. A more bureaucratic form of organizational governance, in which rules and expectations are made explicit, may be more appropriate when an organizations′ employees are members of diverse ethnic cultures.     

Party size and policy outcomes: An empirical analysis of taxation in democracies

Taxation varies widely among democracies. Yet scholars disagree whether differences in political institutions help produce the variation. This article identifies topdown and bottom-up mechanisms by which political institutions are thought to influence taxation. It then combines political and economic data on more than 50 democracies to evaluate the impact of political institutions on government revenues. Cross-sectional and pooled time series analyses that include controls for economic conditions and partisan ideologies of governments confirm an indirect impact of these institutions: there is a curvilinear relationship between the size of political parties in a democracy and the tax revenues collected. Yet the effect of party size on policy outcomes is limited to a subset of democracies. The article opens new paths for research on the roles of electoral, constitutional, legislative, and party institutions in democratic policy making around the world. Andrew C. Gould is associate professor of government at the University of Notre Dame, where he is a Fellow of the Kellogg Institute for International Studies and of the Nanovic Institute for European Studies. He recently publishedOrigins of Liberal Dominance: State, Church, and Party in Nineteenth Century Europe and the article “Conflicting Imperatives and Concept Formation,” which appeared inThe Review of Politics. For their suggestions and/or data, I thank José Antonio Cheibub, Sven Steinmo, Duane Swank, Daniel Verdier, and Michael Wallerstein. For their comments, I am grateful to Carles Boix, Delia Boylan, Lloyd Gruber, Fran Hagopian, Peter Hall, Mark Hallerberg, Gretchen Helmke, Scott Mainwaring, Paul Mueller, Dennis Quinn, Ashutosh Varshney, and two anonymous reviewers. Peter Baker and Tom Lundberg provided insights and skilled research assistance. This work was supported in part by a grant from the Faculty Research Program, University of Notre Dame. A prior version of this article was presented at the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association. The errors that remain are my own.