Export instability and the domestic economy: Questions of causality

The conventional view concerning the impact of export instability on the domestic economies of developing countries is one of pessimism. Export instability is thought to adversely affect the short‐run stability and longer‐run growth of income. Empirical evidence on these matters is, however, inconclusive. This article applies a Granger/Sims reduced form approach to examining whether export instability generates short‐run instability in domestic income. For each of a sample of 20 trade‐dependent countries the results obtained strongly support the contention that export instability induces short‐run macroeconomic instability.     

International tourism and export instability

Export diversification has been suggested as a strategy for decreasing the level of export earnings instability which is experienced by many developing countries. In recent years the international tourism sector has made an increasingly important contribution to the economies of many low income countries. This article examines whether diversification into the non‐traditional tourism sector has succeeded in decreasing the instability of export earnings. It was found that although tourism has the advantage of high growth rates and is a major source of foreign currency receipts, earnings from international tourism did not bring about a significant decrease in the instability of export earnings of most of the developing and industrialised countries considered. Furthermore, a net increase in the instability of earnings from tourism and merchandise exports occurred in a number of countries, and may be a particular problem in small, open developing economies.     

A cross‐section analysis of food insecurity in developing countries: Its magnitude and sources

Short‐term instability in food supplies continues to be a severe problem for many developing countries. From the viewpoint of an individual country, this problem arises primarily from fluctuations in domestic food production and in foreign exchange availability. The present paper aims to establish the magnitude and seriousness of the problem in a sample of 50 food deficit countries. It also aims to broaden the scope of discussion of the food security problem by taking into account the possibility that food insecurity may manifest itself in a country in a variety of ways which depend in part on the manner in which the domestic authorities respond to periodic shortfalls in food supplies.     

Export concentration and export performance in developing countries, 1954–67

The relationship between export concentration and various aspects of the export performance of 31 developing nations during the period 1954–67 is considered in this paper.¹ Estimates of the magnitude, instability and time‐trend of both the geographic concentration of exports and export earnings are utilised to estimate the direction and strength of association between these aspects of export concentration, instability and growth.² The analysis reveals diverse patterns of geographic export concentration among the countries, but offers little support for conventional views of an important direct relationship between export concentration and the instability or growth rate of export earnings.³     

Empirical inflation models in developing countries: Sensitivity to the definition of inflation

Previous developing country inflation studies have demonstrated that the Harberger (monetarist) model's explanatory power may be quite sensitive to the time period or explanatory variables used. In this study, the model's sensitivity to the definition of the inflation rate variable itself ‐ the dependent variable ‐ is investigated. Using a cross‐section, time‐series data set of 19 developing nations, it is shown that the Harberger model is sensitive to the manner in which inflation is defined. Then, a similar investigation is conducted for another, more recently developed, model of the inflationary process (the Hanson model). This model exhibits less sensitivity to the choice of inflation variable.     

The Southern African customs union,cereal price policy in South Africa,and food security in Botswana

It is elaborated in this article that external factors may affect food security in developing countries even if these countries are not exposed to price instability in world food markets. This is the case in the Southern African Customs Union where the agricultural price policy in South Africa affects food security in Botswana, Lesotho and Swasiland. It is analysed quantitatively how cereal price policy in South Africa influenced the cereal import sector of Botswana in the period 1969–84. Cereal import prices increased due to Botswana's membership of the customs union, and cereal imports declined. The price increase was accompanied by a price‐stabilising impact.     

Tax revenue instability,with particular reference to sub‐Saharan Africa

This article examines the temporal instability of tax revenues across a sample of developed and less developed countries. It is shown that instability is especially high in LDCs and is highest in open economies with low per capita income, high output variance and inflationary problems. Even allowing for these factors, revenue instability appears to be particularly high in sub‐Saharan Africa. Revenue instability can be expected, via the government budget constraint, to be associated with expenditure instability and/or instability in the sources of deficit finance. Cross‐section evidence for LDCs confirms that countries with high tax revenue instability tend also to have high expenditure instability. Time‐series evidence for six African countries however, suggests that revenues and expenditures do not move together in a uniform manner, and the direction of causality is generally ambiguous. There is some evidence however that foreign borrowing is used more to finance expenditure increases than to counteract revenue shortfalls.     

Health strategy and development planning: Lessons from the people's republic of China

In Section I of this paper we present an analytical paradigm by which to evaluate health and medical care services in underdeveloped countries. In Section II, we apply this framework to an analysis of the health policies of one developing country, China. In Section III, we evaluate the Chinese health and medical care policies within the framework of a cost‐benefit analysis and argue that these policies are appropriate to China's factor proportions and health needs. Finally, in Section IV, we raise a number of questions to be considered in any more detailed studies on the transferring of the Chinese services to other developing countries.     

EXPLAINING DECISION‐MAKING IN GOVERNMENT: THE NEO‐DURKHEIMIAN INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

In understanding styles of political judgement in government decision‐making, explanatory limitations of rational choice, prospect theoretic, historical institutional, groupthink, and other approaches suggest that there is space for developing other frameworks. This article argues that the neo‐Durkheimian institutional theoretical framework deserves serious consideration. It shows that it offers a powerful causally explanatory framework for generating theories of decision‐making in government which can be examined using historical comparative research designs. The value of the concept of a ‘thought style’ for understanding political judgement is demonstrated, and contrasted sharply with ideology. The theory argues that informal institutions explain thought styles. Well‐known cases from the Cuban missile crisis, and the Wilson and Heath governments illustrate the argument. The article rebuts criticisms offered of the neo‐Durkheimian institutional framework in the literature. Finally, it identifies recent developments and innovations in the approach that make it especially suited to explaining political judgement in government decision‐making.     

Contextuality and data collection methods: A framework and application to health service utilisation

When establishing the value of imports for tariff assessment, most countries apply duties to a cost‐insurance‐freight (c.i.f.) value of the traded good. One effect of using a c.i.f. valuation base is to place a disproportionate burden on countries that have relatively higher freight and insurance costs. Using matched tariff and transport cost information for six Latin American countries this study examines the influence of alternative valuation procedures on the level and incidence of tariff protection. The results show that developing countries are generally at a major transport and insurance cost disadvantage (relative to developed countries) on inter‐regional trade and that the relatively high Latin American tariffs applied on c.i.f. prices further worsen their competitive position. A shift to free‐on‐board. (f.o.b.) valuation would remove the bias against developing country intra‐trade.     

The ‘true protection’ concept ‐ a comment on Greenaway and Milner

Empirical studies estimating shift‐parameters to evaluate the ‘true protection’ especially for developing countries often reach the result that those parameters have very high values. This study is to show that it is not substitutional relationships but much more the very inflationary monetary policy of many developing countries which forces the shift‐parameters towards one. Moreover it is shown that it makes little sense to distinguish between ‘traditional’ and ‘non‐traditional’ exports and that shift‐parameters are not necessarily stable over time.     

Public Sector Reform in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Many developing countries are constantly seeking to reform their public services as part of a wider agenda which supports moves to a market economy and better governance arrangements. Some have embraced public management reforms as the template for their activities with limited success. This paper considers existing research on the impact of public sector reform in developing countries and offers an alternative approach, through case studies of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, based on two keys elements: an agenda which attempts to shift developing countries to an outcomes based accountability approach operationalized through a “quality of life” framework; and, peer‐to‐peer learning.     

EUROPEANIZATION IN MANAGING EU AFFAIRS: BETWEEN DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE,A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF ESTONIA,HUNGARY AND SLOVENIA

Scholarly research into Estonia, Hungary and Slovenia has shown that the idiosyncrasies of the new EU countries (especially with respect to institutionalizing and centralizing the co‐ordination of core executives in managing EU affairs at home) persist. They are complemented by trends toward convergence (such as growing co‐ordination efforts and a common tendency: that of the prime minister to be the centre of co‐ordination). In this article external Europeanization pressures, national administrative traditions (the legacies of both pre‐communist and communist systems), and the patterns of party competition that cause variations in politico‐administrative relations, are tested as possible explanatory variables of differences seen in the three countries when managing EU affairs. While national administrative traditions play similar roles to those seen in old(er) member states by filtering the EU‘s impacts, the effect of patterns of party competition on politico‐administrative relations when managing EU affairs has been filtered by the accession states’ national priorities of integrating with the EU.     

QUEER(Y)ING PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

Queer theory, understood here as a set of political/politicized practices and positions which resist normative knowledge and identities, has emerged as a theoretical perspective having important emancipatory and explanatory power in the arts, humanities and social sciences. Queer theory resists definition ipso facto, residing as it does within a postructuralist paradigm. It has not hitherto featured within the discipline of public administration and we argue the case for its utilisation in this field by first explicating the theory. Here we develop a way of using queer theory to analyse data, notably through the identification of the ‘moments’ of a queer theory analysis: identification of the norms that govern identity, analysis of what is allowable within those norms, and exploration of what is unspeakable. We demonstrate its use via an empirically‐based case study. The lessons from this exercise are then applied to some of our earlier work which we re‐read through a queer theory lens. This shows the great explanatory power offered by the theory, in that it can develop insights that previously have been inaccessible. We conclude with recommendations for its broader application and wider use within public administration.     

Economic Fluctuations and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Importance of Import Instability

The traditional thesis that export instability (XI) is deleterious to economic growth in developing economies has received mixed empirical results. For African countries, recent research suggests that the effect of XI is weak, but that capital (investment) instability (KI) adversely influences economic growth. The current study argues that in many of these nations, imports are likely to be critical to the growth process, while exports represent only one of the various sources of investment resources. Hence, import instability (MI) may pose a more serious problem than XI in hindering economic growth. Employing 1968-1986 World Bank data for 33 sub-Saharan African countries, XI, KI and MI variables are calculated for each country as the standard errors around the respective 'best-fitted' trends over the sample period. These instability measures and additional World Bank data are then used to estimate an augmented production function that controls for the effects of labour, capital, and exports. The study finds that although KI is still a relevant argument of the production function, MI appears to be even more important, while XI is extraneous.     

Legal reform need not come first: Merit‐based civil service management in law and practice

Introducing merit recruitment of public servants is a central good governance reform. To move towards merit in practice, legislation which mandates merit recruitment is considered a necessary but insufficient first step by many scholars and practitioners. Merit‐based civil service legislation should thus be sought before reform in practice. This article challenges this reasoning. It argues that merit laws are neither sufficient nor necessary: they leave the incumbent's possibility frontier for patronage and meritocracy in practice unaffected. Large‐ and small‐n evidence supports this assertion. Analyses of an original dataset of coded civil service legislation in 117 countries from 1975 to 2015 suggest that countries can attain meritocratic recruitment with and without legal merit requirements. Subsequently, a comparison of Paraguay and the Dominican Republic provides micro‐evidence for the underlying mechanism. Conventional wisdom about the sequencing of governance reforms in developing countries may thus be misleading: legal reform need not come first.     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION: AN EFFECTIVE TOOL FOR GOVERNMENT REFORM?

The theory of fiscal federalism asserts that fiscal decentralization increases government effectiveness, reduces government budgets, and reduces corruption when used as a means of government reform. However, counter‐arguments have been made that such an approach has diverging effects according to the level of national development. We have attempted herein to carry out an empirical analysis to examine these theories. Data from 17 developed and 17 developing states were obtained in order to conduct a regression analysis of various indicators. The results revealed that fiscal decentralization reduced government effectiveness in developed countries. Important determinants for government effectiveness were the quality of regulation and the rule of law. When responsibility for expenditure and revenue were devolved, budgets expanded in both developed and developing countries. Fiscal decentralization deterred corruption in advanced states, whereas greater autonomy in spending increased malfeasance in the developing world.     

Aid instability as a measure of uncertainty and the positive impact of aid on growth

This article contributes to the literature on aid and economic growth. We posit that uncertainty, measured as the instability of aid receipts, will influence the relationship between aid and investment, how recipient governments respond to aid, and will capture the fact that some countries are especially vulnerable to shocks. When we account for uncertainty (which is negative and significant), we find that aid has a significant positive effect on growth, largely due to its effect on the volume of investment. The finding that uncertainty of aid receipts reduces the effectiveness of aid is robust. When the regression is estimated for the sub‐sample of African countries these findings hold, although the effectiveness of aid appears weaker than for the full sample.     

Uses and limitations of performance measurement in the civil service: An assessment from the Singapore and New Zealand experiences

This article examines the relevance of Zartman's “ripeness theory” to explain the resolution of the China‐Vietnam conflict. It analyses the core concepts of this theoretical approach to the study of conflict resolution, and evaluates the explanatory value of this approach for understanding the resolution of conflict in specific cases such as the China‐Vietnam conflict. The article identifies three core concepts in this theory, including “hurting stalemate”, “ripe moment”, and “ripe for resolution”. But from the analysis of the China‐Vietnam conflict, it could not discern any of these concepts or stages in the process of conflict resolution in this particular case. Thus, it concludes that Zartman's theoretical approach does not have an explanatory value for the case of the resolution of the Sino‐Vietnamese conflict.