Commodity composition of trade in manufactures and south‐south trade potential

Using two different measures, the degree of correspondence between a country's export vector of manufactures and a trade partner's import vector is determined. These export‐import similarity measures are shown to contribute to an explanation of bilateral trade intensity. They are then used in computing an index of export potential in manufactures for 34 developing countries, and an index showing the potential to replace LDC imports presently originating from developed countries. Given the existing LDC commodity composition, the possibility of substituting imports of DC manufactures by LDC supplies ‐ for example, through preferential inter‐LDC trading ‐is found to be limited only.     

Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Lebanon: Historical lessons of two multireligious states

Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Lebanon have been frequently subject of superficial comparisons: Similar images, the horror of internal strife, religiously and ethnically motivated killings initiated such observations. Nevertheless, Lebanon and Bosnia‐Herzegovina are two multireligious countries, which deserve comparison. Bosnia‐Herzegovina, as well as Lebanon, are reminders of the diversity that existed throughout the Ottoman Empire, before it was leveled by the emergence of nation states. Beyond the historical, Bosnia‐Herzegovina and Lebanon have developed many comparable traits, which help understanding the war that ensued in 1975 in Lebanon and in 1992 in Bosnia‐Herzegovina. The fragmentation of the political sphere along national/religious lines, the destructive role played by neighboring countries and the economic crisis are just some of the factors which can be observed in both countries.     

Are pre‐schoolers from female‐headed households less malnourished? A comparative analysis of results from Ghana and Kenya

This article compares household income level and pre‐schooler weight‐for‐age across household groupings that are differentiated by female headship variables which are reflective of the heterogeneity of female‐headed households. Data from Kenya indicate that it is the interaction of income and female headship at low‐income levels which promotes pre‐schooler nutritional status. For Ghana, incomes have to be quite large (in the upper tercile of the distribution) before a reduction in the child's likelihood of having a low weight‐for‐age is achieved through further income increases. We argue that an absence of complementary child health inputs is more likely for households in the Ghana sample, and that in this type of environment, differences in nurturing patterns, as proxied by headship status, will have a muted impact on child nutrition.     

Ethnic politics and Third World development: Some lessons from Sri Lanka’s experience

Sri Lanka has been in the forefront among LDCs, always implementing development strategies that are fashionable for a given period of time. Beginning with a capitalist structure in the 1950s, it embraced features of a planned economy in the 1960s. By the mid-1970s it had taken up market-orientated growth policies. Yet its record of achievement is a disappointing one. The primary reasons for this are to be found in the ethnic politics Sri Lanka has been engaged in ever since the end of colonial rule. The political economy of ethnicity is traced through four stages where the common element has been a lack of compatibility between economic policies and political strategy.     

Co-Producing with FBOs: lessons from state–madrasa engagement in the Middle East and South Asia

Forging partnerships for development is one of the eight Millennium Development Goals. While faith-based organisations (fbos) are receiving growing attention within development policy as important non-state service providers, they are assumed to be less conducive to forging partnerships with governments or development organisations than secular ngos due to their allegiance to specific religious beliefs. Analysing the dynamic of engagement between the state and madrasas (the most prominent fbo in the Muslim world) in six countries across two geographical regions—the Middle East (Egypt, Syria, Turkey), and South Asia (Pakistan, India, Bangladesh)— the paper counters the assumption that fbos are less likely to enter into negotiations, demonstrate flexibility, and engage in the strategic bargaining often involved in forging such partnerships. Like ngos, fbos respond to socio-political and economic incentives and enter into a variety of relationships with the state, ranging from co-operation to conflict. The defining feature in building a cooperative relationship is the level of trust between the negotiators on the two sides.     

Uncertainty and disaster‐avoidance behaviour in peasant farming: Evidence from Bangladesh

A sample of smallholding farmers in the Pabna region of Bangladesh provide data to test predictions of a safety‐first model and of a profit maximisation model of farmer behaviour. Of the two sets of predictions, the data tend to support those of the safety‐first model more frequently than they support the predictions of the profit maximisation model. While the degree to which the former model ‘out‐performs’ the latter is not great, it is important to note that when the major inputs (land and human labour) and the major outputs (rice and jute), are focused upon, the safety‐first model performs much better than the profit maximisation model.     

Measuring trade strategy in the presence of non‐tradeables: Theory and some evidence for the Caribbean

This article models trade policies in the presence of non‐tradeables, and investigates trade strategy interventions and outcomes where the price of non‐tradeables endogenously adjusts to trade interventions. Trade regime bias and neutrality issues are examined within a three‐sector, open economy model. The theoretical framework is operationalised using empirical evidence for Trinidad and Barbados. The robustness of partial equilibrium measures of protection for classifying trade strategies is challenged and evidence on alternative general equilibrium or ‘true’ measures of protection is reported. ‘True’ or revealed trade strategies are shown to differ from those apparently intended by policy‐makers.     

Directed credit and investment in small‐scale industry in India: Evidence from firm‐level data 1965–78

Panel data on 788 modern sector Indian firms during 1965–78 are used to analyse the link between the size of a firm and its financial environment. Exogeneity tests reveal that large firms with improved investment prospects could obtain external finance at the margin, but that small firms could not. The policy of directing bank credit accordingly relaxed a binding constraint on small firms, raising investment. Assuming that all of the rise in the credit‐sales ratio in small firms was policy‐induced then so was about one third of the 170 per cent rise during 1965—78 in their investment—sales ratio.     

Political instability and savings in less developed countries: Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

A four‐equation model is used to investigate the effects of political instability (PI) on the savings rate in Sub‐Saharan Africa. Utilising a comprehensive measure of PI, we find that political instability has a deleterious effect on the savings rate both directly and indirectly through a reduction in investment and economic growth. The negative effects of PI on savings rate occurs contemporaneously as well as with a lag. We also find that economic growth has a stabilising effect on the political system and that not accounting for these effects through a simultaneous equations model results in biased coefficient estimates. These relationships are robust with respect to model specification. The implication of our results is that ‘economic factors’ alone cannot explain the development process in Less Developed Countries.     

States and the constitutionalization of international relations: A view from the mid‐Atlantic

Michael J. Baun, An Imperfect Union: The Maastricht Treaty and the New Politics of European Integration (Westview, Boulder, CO, 1996), xvi + 182 pp., ISBN 0–8133–2710–5 (hb), 0–8133–2711–3 (pb)

Michael Calingaert, European Integration. Progress, Prospects and US Interests (Westview, Boulder, CO, 1996), xiii +223 pp., ISBN 0–8133–2953–1 (hb), 0–8133–2954‐X (pb)

Brian Hocking and Michael Smith, Beyond Foreign Economic Policy. The United States, the Single European Market and the Changing World Economy (Pinter, London, 1997), 216 pp., ISBN 185567–269–3

John Peterson, Europe and America: The Prospects for Partnership (Routledge, London, 1996, 2nd edn), xii +240 pp., ISBN 0–415–14653–4 (hb), 0–415–13864–7 (pb)     

Safeguarding Political Guarantees in the Colombian Peace Process: have Santos and farc learnt the lessons from the past?

This article discusses the lessons of previous peace processes between the government of Colombia and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (farc). It has two policy implications. In regard to Colombia it suggests that safeguarding the lives of demobilised farc members is necessary for the current peace process to succeed, hence it proposes a hybrid Specialised Protection Force (spf). In terms of peace building the article discusses the challenges for spfs to avoid becoming tools of foreign policy diplomacy that perpetuate conflicts. The article aims to contribute to both the critique of liberal peace and of the negotiating teams in the current Colombian peace process.