Commodity concentration and export fluctuations: A comment

The method of analysis used in a recent paper on trade diversification and export fluctuations is reviewed. The derivation of certain results is shown to be incorrect, and the validity of the suggested measure of predictability is questioned.     

Commodity concentration and export fluctuations: A probability analysis

This paper examines the argument that diversification of exports can help reduce export fluctuations. Our main point is that the problem of export fluctuations is not uni‐dimensional but has to be defined with reference to some characteristics of the country, e.g. ability to forecast fluctuations, or availability of reserves to meet their effects. Focusing on two aspects of fluctuations—one concerned with the average amplitude and the other with the sporadicity—we show that diversification may help to mitigate the former aspect but may enhance the latter. This suggests that in order to evaluate the effects of diversification we need more information on how countries define their problem of fluctuations.     

Deported before experiencing the good sides of migration: Ethiopians returning from Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT

In the period November 2013–April 2014 more than 160,000 Ethiopians were deported from Saudi Arabia after a seven months amnesty period for undocumented migrants came to an end. This large-scale regularization campaign of the Saudi government must be seen in light of the ‘Arab Spring’, when popular uprisings in the Middle East were threatening dictatorial regimes. The effect of the Arab Spring was felt globally; the uprisings impacted upon migrants living in countries in the Middle East and on their countries of origin. This paper looks into the experiences of Ethiopian deportees prior, during and after their forced return. We argue that the fact that the migrants were not prepared for their sudden return affected their economic, social network and psychosocial embeddedness back in Ethiopia. In addition, the Ethiopian government has not been able to improve the returnees’ economic embeddedness, which has affected their social and psychological status negatively.     

Beyond royal politics: state transformation and foreign policy in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Saudi politics is commonly portrayed as reflecting a system of centralised personal rule in which decision-making power trickles down from the tightly knit power circles within the House of Saud. In contrast, this paper draws attention to the empowerment of quasi-autonomous state organisations in Saudi Arabia as a result of state transformation and regional integration. At its most extreme, state transformation in Saudi Arabia has created institutional and regulatory enclaves with vested interests and areas of competence that cross Saudi borders. This paper illustrates the foreign policy ramifications of transformed statehood in Saudi attempts to further Gulf regional integration in the context of the Gulf Monetary Union project.     

安倍政权的战略选择评析

10月20日是日本新政府"满月"的日子.一个月来,以"第一位战后出生首相"为特征组建的安倍政府,其政治属性始终是人们观察的对象,所选择的内政、外交政策更是成为人们关注的焦点.     

Fighting for the right to play: women’s football and regime-loyal resistance in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This paper seeks to contribute to the scholarship on women and social change in Saudi Arabia through the case of female football players in Riyadh. Officially, there has been no women’s football in the kingdom, but beneath the surface women have been playing for more than a decade. The women are actively promoting and engaging in change and women’s opportunities to practise sport by building organisations, creating awareness, and negotiating norms and regulations. They are not in opposition to the regime, but supportive of reforms in favour of increased rights for women, while seeing conservative elements in the society as their opponents and the royal family as their allies. They are thus engaging in what O’Brian and Li termed ‘rightful resistance’, by deploying the language of the rulers to express their perspectives and aims, and are engaged in a three-party game with the rulers and conservatives, where divisions within the state and elite allies matter greatly.     

The exchange rate and the balance of trade: The Turkish experience

In this article, we examine the responsiveness of Turkey's trade balance to devaluation accompanied by trade liberalisation. Our results show that the trade balance was responsive to changes in the exchange rate that were brought about by the economic reforms introduced in the 1980s, suggesting that exchange rate policy was able to create and maintain a satisfactory balance of trade position in the 1980s and early 1990s.     

Revolution without regime change: The evidence from the post-Euromaidan Ukraine

What effects does a revolution have on the stability or change of a hybrid regime? Has the Ukraine's regime changed since the 2014 revolution? To answer these questions I examine the changes in formal and informal institutions and the quantitative and qualitative composition of elites after the change of power in Ukraine in 2014. I argue that despite greater than in the post-orange period quantitative renewal of elites, qualitative change has not occurred. Meanwhile, the old operational code, or modus operandi, of elites' political culture, composed of clientelism, secretive deals and quota based nominations to government positions continues to operate. The lack of elites' renewal and the dominance of informal rules over formal procedures – two factors that keep the institutional core of Ukraine's hybrid regime unchanged.     

从"人的自由发展"看苏联的教训

马克思恩格斯在<共产党宣言>中提出"每个人的自由发展"终极目标,人类社会发展的最终目的是人的解放,人的自由发展.俄国历史上没有可能解决这一问题,十月革命后由于国内战争也没有可能提出和解决.列宁的新经济政策采取了一些措施,朝这一方向迈出了可喜的一步.但从20年代末开始,斯大林又恢复了军事共产主义制度,实行大清洗、大镇压,消灭"富农",实行文化专制主义和大俄罗斯主义,从根本上背离了"每个人的自由发展"这一目标,为此苏联付出了沉痛的代价.     

商品生产与社会主义:解读马克思和斯大林的"对立"

在社会主义社会 (共产主义第一阶段 )是否存在商品生产的问题上 ,斯大林和马克思的不同观点实际上是一致的。斯大林讲的社会主义社会不是马克思讲的共产主义社会第一阶段 ,而是马克思讲的过渡时期的一个特定的阶段 ,马克思并不否认在这样的阶段存在商品生产。在商品生产会不会引导到资本主义的问题上 ,斯大林和马克思的观点也是一致的 ,马克思讲的是价值规律作为基本规律的商品生产 ,斯大林讲的则是价值规律的作用受到一定限制的新型的商品生产 ;斯大林并不否认在价值规律的自由调节下会导致资本主义。中国的“社会主义初级阶段”属于马克思讲的过渡时期的比较初级的阶段 ,我们要大力发展商品生产 ,也要按照马克思主义的逻辑发展关于商品生产的理论。     

Estimating the shadow price of foreign exchange: An illustration from India

Although there has been a rapid growth in the literature urging the use of shadow prices in cost‐benefit analysis, little attention has been devoted to the estimation of shadow prices or to the feasibility of alternative methodologies for estimating a particular shadow price. This paper is a modest contribution toward meeting this gap. By applying a variety of methodologies, a range of values is determined for the shadow price of foreign exchange for India. The paper also demonstrates a general approach to estimating shadow prices, which in turn emerges from an explicit consideration of the costs and expected benefits of the required research and analysis.     

Sector choice,multiple job holding and wage differentials: Evidence from Poland

This article uses data from Poland to investigate the role played by wage differentials, between the public and private sectors, in influencing sector choice and the decision to moonlight. Standardising for worker characteristics and allowing for sector selection effects, we find (i) a substantial private sector wage premium, (ii) wage differentials are a significant determinant of sector choice, and (iii) the desire to moonlight is particularly strong among those who face the greatest wage gap, that is, university educated employees.     

和平发展:中国必由之路

四分之一个世纪改革开放的辉煌历程,无可置疑地向全世界昭示:中国选择的是一条和平发展道路。“和平发展”,言之凿凿,名副其实。这就是:在安全、稳定的条件下加速社会经济变革与发展,为此要营造一个良好的周边环境与国际环境;本着崇高的以人为本的和平目的,造福于中华民族,同时造福于全人类;采取和平的方式并经过和平的途径,奔向全面建成小康社会的彼岸;维护世界和平与稳定,促进人类共同繁荣与进步,亦即我国几代领导人倡导的“中国应当对于人类有较大的贡献”。选择和平发展道路,乃是基于中国特色社会主义推进现代化建设的内在要求,基于饱经忧患的中国讲