The world population situation

Population experts appear to be reaching a consensus that there has been a perceptible decline over the last decade in the growth of the world's population. The decline is accounted for by the "new demographic transition" in the less developed countries (LDCs). The decline in fertility rates began in the 1950s in some LDCs and became more widespread during the 1970s. The process has not yet begun in many of the LDCs. During the 1960s it was observed that the declines in birth rates (to levels of 30 of less per 1000) were occurring mostly in small countries. Many of these countries were islands with levels of social and economic development above the developing country average. The key question is whether the recent downward trend in fertility in LDCs will continue, stabilize at the current level, or rise again. A primary concern about the future is that the poorer and less developed countries will end up with an increasing share of the world's population, with the share of the developed countries declining from 34% to 22% over the 1950-2000 period. Considerable differential exists in demographic growth patterns among various regions. The 12 largest LDCs (China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey) contain 55% of the current world population, and the fertility decline of these nations is expected to have the maximum impact. 7 of these countries have had fertility declines of 14-35%. The force of the "population momentum" must also be considered. Most developing country populations have a young age distribution with considerable potential for population growth even after the fertility level reaches a replacement level and the net reproduction rate equals 1.     

Foreign direct investment and technology capabilities in the developing countries: a review

Economically developing countries are facing the very difficult problems of mastering the skills involved in newly emerging science-intensive industries. To improve technological capabilities, they must expend resources to establish themselves in industries that are technologically mature. Transfer of knowledge is the crux of the direct investment, so in this context transfer of technology (ToT) plays a vital role in the economic and technological development. So, the wide spread discussion of “economic globalization” has involved an important debate on the role of technology in “economic globalization” and economic growth. Much of that debates has concentrated of corporate behaviour within the developed countries but transfer of technology (ToT) combines the development of indiginous technological capabilities also. At the same time, organizational skills, procedure, and assumptions within the globalization of technology need to be adapted to fit the new technology in the developing countries. Thus this paper try to explain the story of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economic growth and development of technology through technological capabilities that provides for an increasingly intense end of domestic competition. The paper also analysis and review the effect of access to technology and level of competition, on the level of technological capabilities by inference a strategy for the success acquisition of technology in developing countries.     

An investigation of the export expansion hypothesis

The present study examines the appropriate development strategies for industrially advanced and developed nations utilising the earlier research of Alfred Maizels. As before, the basic model used is the ‘ex‐ante’ model developed by Hollis Chenery and Alan Strout. The results support the ‘Export Expansion’ hypothesis which emphasises the importance of exports as a source of savings and as a catalyst for economic development for both highly developed and less developed countries. Gross Domestic Product, Non‐export Gross Domestic Product, and exports are used to explain savings in 11 less developed countries and six developed countries.     

Direct investment and industrial concentration

Cross‐national comparison of industrial concentration is considered here in terms of two hypotheses. The ‘technology/market size’ hypothesis [Merhav, 1969] predicts greater concentration in less developed countries than in the larger markets of developed countries. The ‘miniature replica’ hypothesis predicts that, when the degree of foreign ownership is high, industries in less developed countries may be less concentrated than their counterparts in advanced countries. Most cross‐national comparisons of firm size distributions support a predominance of ‘technology/market size’ effects. In this paper, data from the pharmaceutical industry in Brazil and other less developed countries are used to suggest that under certain conditions ‘miniature replica’ effects may prevail.     

Comparative growth in India and the people’s Republic of China 1950–1988: A reappraisal

Growth records have been employed to argue that authoritarian forms of government are more efficient at achieving economic growth, welfare, and equity than democracies. This assessment is based on imperfect data; World Bank data on rates of growth of GNP in India and China fail to agree with World Bank data on their achievements in terms of per capita GNP. This article, considers the nature of this anomaly and its implications for current assessments of the relative efficiency of these forms of political and economic organization. The comparative records of China and India during 1950–88 are examined within the context of the growth-democray incompatibility hypothesis while focusing on an aberration in the data employed: the contradiction between the high rates of growth experienced by China and the equality of its per capita GNP with that of the supposedly slower growing India. In attempting to resolve this discrepancy, data on standards of living and degree of structural change are analyzed in order to verify either hypothesis regarding these two economies. Overall, the secondary data fail to suggest that both countries performed poorly. There is no evidence supporting equality of per capita incomes; there is an abundance of evidence confirming the higher growth rates reported for China. The overriding conclusion, however, is that the data are flawed and it is premature to employ them for assessing the efficiency of authoritarian governments at achieving growth, equity, and welfare. Vibha Kapuria-Foreman is an assistant professor of economics at The Colorado College and holds a doctorate from the University of Pittsburgh. Her research interests include the history of economic thought, economic development, and economic history. She is currently examining the nature of causality between population growth and economic development.     

Sociological explanations of economic growth

Even if questions of how resources aredistributed within and between societies are our main concern, we must continue to grapple with the issue of the causes of economic growth because economic growth and level of development continue to be among the most important causes of inequality, poverty, unemployment, and the quality of life. This paper’s dependent variable is the economic growth rate of 55 less developed countries (LDCs) during two time periods—1970–78 and 1965–84. The causal model consists of control variables—level of development and domestic investment in 1965—and a variety of independent variables drawn from major sociological theories of economic growth published during the last three decades. Multiple regression analysis shows that, net of the effects of the two control variables, the variables that have the strongest effect on economic growth rates are: (1) direct foreign investment, which has a negative effect; (2) the proportion of the population in military service; and (3) the primary school enrollment ratio, both of which have positive effects of economic, growth. On the other hand, variables drawn from some theories receive no empirical suport. The mass media of communications, ethno-linguistic heterogeneity, democracy and human rights, income inequality, and state-centric theory’s key variable—state strength—all fail to show any significant impact on economic growth rates when the control variables and the significant independent variables are held constant. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Linking national and global population agendas: case studies from eight developing countries

This comparative study of the determinants of family planning policy initiation and implementation focuses on four pairs of countries: Zambia/Zimbabwe, Algeria/Tunisia, Pakistan/Bangladesh, and Philippines/Thailand. The conclusion is drawn that global efforts had an influence on national policy makers and on putting family planning issues on the policy agenda. Global impacts were affected by national economic and social conditions and the broader political and economic relations with Western countries. The absolute level of economic development was found to be unrelated to the timing of initiation of family planning on national policy agendas. Stronger national family planning programs occurred in countries where policy makers linked economic development at whatever level with the need to limit population growth. Pakistan and Thailand in the 1960s illustrated this commitment to family planning programs, and Zambia and Algeria illustrated the lack of connection between development and population growth at the policy level and the lack of family planning on the policy agenda. Affiliation with the West during the 1960s meant early initiation of family planning in Pakistan/Bangladesh and Philippines/Thailand. Stronger commitment to program implementation occurred only in Thailand during the 1970s and Zimbabwe during the 1980s. Commitment lessened in the Philippines and Pakistan. Program implementation and national support of family planning were viewed as also dependent upon domestic factors, such as sufficient resources. Algeria/Tunisia and Zambia/Zimbabwe were countries that promoted family planning only after national political ideology shifted and anti-imperialist sentiments subsided. The impact of the international Cairo conference on these countries was minimal in terms of policy change. Most of the countries however desired greater support from donors. Even objections from the Vatican and internal domestic pressures were insufficient to prevent countries such as the Philippines and Pakistan from supporting the Cairo Plan of Action and a family planning and reproductive health agenda. Bangladesh and Pakistan are given as examples of countries where differences in the focus of foreign aid impacted on the national support for social services.     

Social Capability, History and the Economies of Communist and Postcommunist States

Studies show that in non-Communist developed and developing countries earlier development of agriculture, a dense population, and a state-level polity is associated with a higher income and more rapid economic growth in the late twentieth century. We investigate whether this was also the case for countries under communism and for the same countries in transition to a market economy. Our findings are generally affirmative, with an interesting pattern for the Eurasian socialist core countries involving higher growth nearer their West European and East Asian poles. We also find that ethnic fractionalization, which is correlated with late premodern development, shows harmful effects in the transition era but not under communism.     

A Cross-Country Comparison of Corruption and Public Expenditures: A Panel Data Approach

Corruption is an especially serious problem for all countries, and has damaging effects on sustainable economic growth. Although there is a significant relationship between corruption and public expenditures, the degree and way of this relationship is changed according to countries. The main objective of this article is to analyze the relationship between corruption and the level and composition of public expenditures, using data from 21 countries which are classified as countries in above and below average corruption perception indices. In empirical analysis, panel data were used in modeling of the effects of corruption on public expenditures. The empirical results show the findings support the hypothesis that the composition of public expenditures has an important element on corruption for countries.     

Inequality,Economic Development,and Democratization

Although multiple theories suggest that economic development and inequality somehow affect democratization, these claims have received only limited empirical support. I contend that much of the confusion stems from the implicit assumption held by the literature that development and inequality affect democratization independently of one another. In this paper, I argue that the effect of income distribution on democratization is in fact contingent on the income level: in middle-income countries inequality fosters democratization; in rich countries, however, it harms democratization. Using a data set covering almost all autocracies between 1960 and 2007, I find evidence consistent with my hypothesis.     

Foreign direct investment,financial development and economic growth

This article argues that the development of the financial system of the recipient country is an important precondition for FDI to have a positive impact on economic growth. A more developed financial system positively contributes to the process of technological diffusion associated with FDI. The article empirically investigates the role the development of the financial system plays in enhancing the positive relationship between FDI and economic growth. The empirical investigation presented in the article strongly suggests that this is the case. Of the 67 countries in data set, 37 have a sufficiently developed financial system in order to let FDI contribute positively to economic growth. Most of these countries are in Latin America and Asia.     

The emergence of regulatory regionalism: transnational networks and the diffusion of regulatory agencies within regions

The regulatory regionalism approach has increasingly claimed that a new mode of regional governance is emerging globally. Regional policy regimes, developed in broad social and economic territorial areas, affect the internal transformation of the state. The authors plan to provide comprehensive empirical evidence about the emergence of worldwide regulatory regionalism by identifying how regulatory agencies have diffused very successfully within the regional level in recent decades. The paper aims to identify, using an original methodological design, the ways in which such diffusion of agencies occurred, as this may have theoretical relevance for the study of regulatory regionalism. The authors' hypothesis suggests that transnational political interactions in each regional cluster triggered agency diffusion, contributing to the development of the regulatory state within the countries of each region. To test this hypothesis, the authors employed a data set of regulatory agencies including the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), and most Asian and Latin American countries (+59) from 1950 to 2007, for 15 sectors related to finance, risks, utility and competition. Bayesian data analysis was used to estimate the parameters of interest.     

Population and development: fact,fancy and politics

Massive population growth is an accepted fact in developing countries at a time when developed, Western countries, i.e., the U.S., have become increasingly disenchanted with foreign aid. The gap between the very rich and very poor becomes wider and sharper. Most people live either in countries where the per capita income is below $320 or above $1,280. Lowering fertility rates would be favorable to economic conditions in the long run but with little short-run effect, population control is not a high priority government activity. The theme of the 1974 Bucharest Conference was that if development were encouraged, fertility would take care of itself. Programs which directly influence fertility rates are needed to improve development. Family planning programs are low cost compared to other development policies, and they improve maternal and child health. Women cannot be educated or employed unless they have the freedom of choice not to have children or when to have children. Western enthusiasm for fertility control has been met with suspicion in many devleoping areas. Western attitudes should be balanced by restructuring world trade and constructing relationships which would hasten economic development.     

State power, state embeddedness, and national development in less developed countries: A cross-national analysis

In this article, we test the prevailing statist argument about the state’s contribution to economic development in less developed countries (LDCs). State power in terms of centralized control of societal resources has been long considered a primary factor for economic growth. From the embeddedness perspective, the state’s effective embedding in the economy advances productive growth, while state power actually operates as a structural precondition of such policy action. Featured in our measurement are representative and financial embeddedness (operationalized as the central government’s tax income and its lending to the private sector and local states, respectively). The empirical testing is based on a pooled cross-national data of sixty-one underdeveloped countries. As indicated from modeling both manufacturing growth and increase in GNP per capita as dependent variables (during the period 1975–1990), the state power variable does not produce expected growth outcomes. However, two embedded state measures display significant but sectorbiased growth effects only for manufacturing production. Herein we further compare strong state power countries with weak ones, concluding that state power serves as a structural prerequisite so that late industrialization for LDCs can benefit from the growth coalitions in which the central state collaborates with (rather than dominates) actors at the subnational level of society and authorities. Ming-Chang Tsai teaches sociology in Taiwan. He was Fulbright Visiting Scholar in the Institute for Social, behavioral, and Economic Research, University of California at Santa Barbara (1998–99). He wishes to thank professors Diane Davis and Ian Roxborough for invaluable comments. An earlier version of this article was presented in the American Sociological Association Annual Meeting, August 1997, Toronto.     

Aid and Sectoral Growth: Evidence from Panel Data

This article examines empirically the proposition that aid to poor countries is detrimental for external competitiveness, giving rise to Dutch disease type effects. At the aggregate level, aid is found to have a positive effect on growth. A sectoral decomposition shows that the effect is (i) significant and positive in the tradable and the nontradable sectors, and (ii) equally strong in both sectors. The article thus provides no empirical support for the hypothesis that aid reduces external competitiveness in developing countries. A possible reason for this finding is the existence of large idle labour capacity that prevents the real exchange rate from appreciating.     

Economic growth and import requirements

This article points out that our knowledge of the specific form and analytical reasons underlying the interrelationship known to exist between international trade and economic growth is limited and that this situation is largely due to the lack of an adequate theoretical framework. Comparative cost theory is not very helpful in this respect be cause the explanation of the rise of trade it provides does not lead to useful and unambiguous inferences about the role of trade in economic growth nor about the characteristics of trade flows during growth.

The difficulty may in part be attributed to the circumstance that comparative cost doctrine provides theoretical support for an ideal system of trading which nations have consistently refused to follow. The article suggests that this situation of fact results because the primary objective that nations pursue in trading is not to exploit (at a given level of employment and capacity use) whatever comparative cost differences may exist, but to ‘develop’ their national economies; and to this end the policy objectives that are given highest priority in all countries are those that induce a maximum level of domestic manpower employment and as intensive a utilization as possible of the national resource base. The trade implications of adhering to this ‘national development’ objective are easy to visualize: nations will tend to import only those commodities needed to supplement their own output so that total supply (domestic plus imported goods) fits the prevailing requirements; and they will import such commodities because an important condition for growth is a reasonable long‐run coincidence between the commodity composition of total supply and total demand. Since no country can have an all‐encompassing resource base nor attain full productive diversification, it follows that all countries must have certain minimum import requirements.

The core of the article is devoted to a discussion of an exponential‐type formula (M = ay^b P^e A^d) which defines aggregate import requirements in terms of the level of per‐capita income, the population and the geographical area of the respective countries. The discussion shows that the formula implicitly takes into account characteristics of the resource base such as its magnitude, quality and degree of exploitation. This formula, in its linear logarithmic form, is then used for a regression analysis of the imports of a uniform sample of 53 countries in three years, viz. 1953, 1958 and 1963. Data of 20 countries in 1913 and U.S. data for the period 1889–1953 are similarly analysed. The results show that the formula permits excellent fits of the data and that all the variables selected—including area—are statistically significant even at the 99 per cent confidence level. These results are interpreted as supporting evidence of the validity of the views advanced earlier regarding the economic motivation for trading and the factors that determine levels of import requirements.

The last part of the article deals with some of the implications of the empirical findings (regarding the function of trade and the role of natural resources in economic growth, the possibilities of successful import substitution and the relation between geographical size and trade requirements—relation of practical importance in connection with customs unions and similar economic integration arrangements). A few broad policy implications of the views advanced in the article are also presented.     

Exports,growth and threshold effects in Africa

Abstract

The relationship between openness and growth remains a controversial issue in development economics with many studies focusing on the export–growth relationship. This paper examines whether the relationship between exports and growth found in large cross-section studies also holds in the context of African economies. The paper employs threshold regression techniques to examine whether African countries benefit more from exports when they reach a certain level of development or openness. Our results suggest that there is indeed a positive relationship between exports and growth in Africa. The threshold regression analysis also suggests that it is not necessary for a country to reach a certain level of development or to have an existing export base for this relationship to hold, though it is found that the relationship is stronger for countries that experience higher rates of export growth.     

The possibility of real income losses from technical progress in protected industries: The case of Pakistan

This article examines the relationship between social capital and the creation and exchange of knowledge for grassroots development. It applies a framework that originated in developed countries to the experimental phase of a successful entrepreneurial development programme, undertaken between 2006 and 2012 in rural Bangladesh. Although generally applicable, the framework’s structural dimensions are further developed and divided into three functional subtypes of social capital (bonding, bridging and linking) following distinct pathways in their contribution to the creation and exchange of knowledge, demonstrating domains where programme participants co-created know-how. In conclusion, a framework representing the links between social capital and knowledge is presented.     

Does Decentralization Reform Always Increase Economic Growth?: A Cross Country Comparison of the Performance

This study aims to test the impact of decentralization on the economic growth of a country. Based on the longitudinal data set of 63 countries with a time series spanning 1960 to 2007, the test result reveals that there is a negative relationship both between fiscal decentralization and GDP growth and between political decentralization and GDP growth. In order to examine the different impacts of decentralization, the same analysis was applied to subsets of countries categorized into three groups according to the economic stage of the country. This further analysis found that there is a negative relationship between political decentralization and growth in developing countries, between fiscal decentralization and growth in semi-developed countries, but no relationship in developed countries. These results show that decentralization is not always instrumental in economic growth, which means that the time variable, or more precisely the stage of economic development of a country, is an important factor when introducing decentralization reforms.     

Understanding Sub-Saharan Africa’s Extreme Poverty Tragedy

Motivated by a recent World Bank report on achieving of Millennium Development Goals which shows that poverty has been declining in all regions of the world with the exception of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), this study puts some empirical structure to theoretical and qualitative studies on the reconciliation of the Beijing model with the Washington Consensus. It tests the hypothesis that compared to middle-income countries, low-income countries would achieve more inclusive development by focusing on economic governance as opposed to political governance. The empirical evidence is based on interactive and noninteractive fixed effects regressions and 49 countries in SSA for the period 2000–2012. The findings confirm the investigated hypothesis. As the main policy implication, in order to address inclusive development challenges in the post-2015 development agenda in SSA, it would benefit low-income countries in the subregion to prioritize economic governance. Other theoretical and practical contributions are also discussed.