Estimating the Average Treatment Effect of Social Safety Net Programmes in Bangladesh

Abstract

Since the famine in 1974, the Bangladesh government and some national and international agencies have been providing food, or cash, or both, to poor households through the Social Safety Net programmes. I seek to estimate how much these programmes affect the well-being of poor households. Most previous studies have estimated impacts of these programmes on calorie consumption, simply computing the raw differential. However, both observed and unobserved characteristics bias this treatment effect. Using fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design, I control for these selection effects.     

Exploring Seasonal Poverty Traps: The ‘Six-Week Window’ in Southern Malawi

Conventional wisdom in Malawi holds that seasonal food deficits force smallholders to hire out their labour to buy food during the critical first six weeks after planting, thereby reducing maize yields on their own fields and reinforcing poverty. This model was tested empirically for the Blantyre Shire Highlands using evidence from a panel survey and household case studies. Results showed no significant relationship between the supply of hired labour (ganyu) and the timeliness of weeding for maize, and that timely weeding was not a significant determinant of household maize deficits. This puzzle is explained by the diversification of the rural economy that has allowed households to develop alternative livelihood strategies to cope with maize deficits. Livelihood diversity helped poor households avoid the seasonal poverty trap and also helps explain the paradox of why the poorest region in Malawi escaped the 2001–2002 famine.     

Rising Food Prices and Coping Strategies: Household-level Evidence from Afghanistan

This article investigates the impact of rising wheat prices on household food security in Afghanistan. Exploiting a unique nationally-representative household survey, we find evidence of large declines in the real value of per capita food consumption. Smaller price elasticities with respect to calories than with respect to food consumption suggest that households trade off quality for quantity as they move away from nutrient-rich foods such as meat and vegetables toward staple foods. Our work improves upon country-level simulation studies by providing estimates of actual household food security during a price shock in one of the world's poorest, most food-insecure countries.     

Poverty and Disasters: Do Remittances Reproduce Vulnerability?

Abstract

In many low-income countries, remittances are important in sustaining people’s livelihood and become even more significant during disasters. Meanwhile, the literature suggests that remittances are mainly accessible to middle and upper-income households, rather than to the poorest, thus implying differential capacities amongst households to overcome crises. The present study uses cyclone Evan that hit Samoa in December 2012 as a case study to test this hypothesis. It focuses on the village of Tafitoala and draws on interviews and participatory activities undertaken with the poorest households of the community. It indicates that the poor receive little to no remittances and that they struggled more than the rest of the community to cope with and recover from the cyclone. Their lack of access to remittances had negative consequences on the security and sustainability of their livelihoods. We conclude that remittances reproduce or even increase both inequalities and vulnerabilities existing within the community of origin.     

Economic Consequences of Forced Displacement

Over 42 million people worldwide have been forcibly displaced from their communities, though little is known about the impact of this movement on livelihoods. I use a panel data set and exploit a geographic discontinuity to explore the effects of displacement in Uganda. I find that displaced households experience a significant initial decrease in consumption. Two years after households returned home, displaced households still lag behind. However, households in the top quartiles of pre-displacement assets have recovered some of their consumption, though with significantly reduced education and wealth levels. There is likely little or no recovery for the poorest households.     

Why are Informal Loans Still a Big Deal? Evidence from North-east Thailand

Abstract

This article examines the use and benefit of informal loans for different income groups of rural households in north-east Thailand. Using a difference-in-differences estimation approach, which is later complemented by propensity score matching, the article shows that different household groups profit from informal loans in different ways. Poor households increase their asset endowment, and in particular farming assets, whereas rich households’ (food) consumption rises, especially if households borrow due to a shock. By showing that informal loans serve different households for different purposes, this article provides an explanation why they still play an important role.     

Cash Transfers Enable Households to Cope with Agricultural Production and Price Shocks: Evidence from Zambia

Climate change is projected to dramatically disrupt rainfall patterns and agricultural yields in sub-Saharan Africa. These shocks to food production can mire farming households in poverty traps. This study investigates whether unconditional cash transfers can help households cope with agricultural production and price shocks. We find that cash empowers poor, rural households facing these negative shocks to employ coping strategies typically used by the non-poor and enables them to substantially increase their food consumption and overall food security. Extending relatively small cash payments unconditionally to the rural poor is a powerful policy option for fostering climate-resilient development.     

Coping with shocks in rural Ethiopia

Abstract

Using survey data and event history interviews undertaken in Ethiopia, we investigate which shocks trigger which coping responses and why. Relatively covariate natural and economic shocks trigger reductions in savings and in food consumption, while relatively idiosyncratic health shocks prompt reductions in savings and a reliance on borrowing. Surprisingly, across all shocks, households do not rely on gifts from family and friends, highlighting the need for formal protection systems. We argue that the insensitivity of food consumption to health shocks does not imply insurability but indicates that it is not a viable response to such a shock.     

The impact of the gender composition of households on inequality and poverty: a comparison across Russia and Eastern Europe

This study compares poverty and income distribution among gender subgroups in Russia and four East European countries—Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary and Poland—in 2000. Does the gender poverty gap exist in these countries and if yes, how big is it? How much does the level of gender inequality contribute to explaining the level of aggregate inequality and poverty within each country? To what extent may the differences emerging in cross-country comparisons of poverty and inequality be explained by differences in the gender composition of households, e.g., the prevalence of female-dominated households? These are the questions I seek to answer in this paper.Equivalent expenditure is adopted as a measure of economic welfare of households with different gender ratios. The gender gap is defined as the degree of distance between the economic welfare of households dominated by women and households dominated by men. Headcount poverty and average poverty shortfalls are calculated using relative poverty lines. Inequality is measured by Gini and Theil L coefficients.     

‘We Are All Poor Here’: Economic Difference,Social Divisiveness and Targeting Cash Transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa

While the central thrust of Michael Lipton's work has been the crucial role of productivity gains in small farm agriculture for rural poverty reduction, in many sub-Saharan African countries this desirable outcome has stubbornly refused to materialise, and growing numbers of rural poor people are found persistently to fail to secure even minimal acceptable levels of food consumption. A social protection policy response is to target social cash transfers to the chronic extreme poor. This article focuses on the level of cash transfers relative to income differences between households in the bottom half of the income distribution, and the social tensions that arise from beneficiary selection and exclusion. It is found that cash transfers to target groups such as ‘the poorest 10 per cent’ or the ‘ultra-poor labour constrained’ must be set low, even below the welfare levels they seek to achieve, if they are to avoid socially invidious reshuffling of the income distribution. The article identifies critical trade-offs between the cost and coverage of different types of social transfer, their social acceptability and their political traction, helping to explain the reluctance of governments to adopt scaled-up poverty-targeted transfers as the preferred form of social cash transfer to those most in need in their societies.     

The economic viability and stability of ‘capitalised family farming’: An analysis of agricultural decollectivisation in Peru

Abstract

The overall goal of this study is to examine if there is a dropout problem in rural China and to explore the effectiveness of a Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme on the rate of dropping out. To meet this goal, we conduct a randomised controlled trial (RCT) to assess the impact of the CCT using a sample of the poorest 300 junior high school students in a nationally-designated poor county in Northwest China. We find that the annual dropout rate in the study county was 7.8 per cent and even higher, 13.3 per cent, among the children of poor households. We demonstrate that a CCT program reduces dropout by 60 per cent. The programme is most effective among students with poor academic performance, and likely more effective among girls and younger students.     

Trends in poverty and destitution in Wollo,Ethiopia 1

According to several studies, poverty in rural Ethiopia has fallen significantly since the early 1990s, thanks to improved governance and economic liberalisation policies. This paper presents several arguments that challenge this view. The first questions the methodological foundations of the data from which these positive trends are derived: we argue that the original sampling frame was too small and unrepresentative to provide a basis for extrapolating national poverty levels or trends. The second argument questions the conceptual underpinnings of these studies: poverty estimates based on levels of current consumption fail to allow for non-income dimensions of wellbeing, nor for confounding factors such as seasonality, annual rainfall and food aid receipts. The third strand considers alternative sources of data on changes in wellbeing in Ethiopia: recent qualitative studies report that the poor perceive themselves as poorer and more vulnerable than poverty headcount figures suggest.

Finally, we report findings from our own survey in chronically poor and historically famine-prone Wollo. First, a significant proportion of households in the study area are destitute – destitution being defined as inability to meet basic needs, lack of key productive assets, and dependence on transfers. Secondly, the numbers of destitute people, and of people vulnerable to becoming destitute, have increased over the past ten years. Thirdly, the crisis of livelihoods underlying this trend is affecting entire communities – the dominant pattern is an aggregate downward shift, rather than stratification – and the decline of wealthier households is exacerbating the vulnerability of the poorest. These findings cast serious doubts on generalisations about poverty trends in Ethiopia. At the very least, national-level data need to be disaggregated: improving national trends may conceal pockets of entrenched poverty and a deepening livelihoods crisis in parts of rural Ethiopia.     

Agricultural Diversity and Child Stunting in Nepal

Abstract

This article investigates empirical connections between agriculture and child nutrition in Nepal. We augment the standard approach to explaining child nutrition outcomes by including information about household level agricultural production characteristics, including indicators of agricultural diversity. Data from the 2010/2011 Nepal Living Standards Survey (NLSS) are used in a series of regression models to explain stunting outcomes and variation in height-for-age Z-scores among 1,769 children 0–59 months of age. Results highlight the relative importance of overall agricultural yields, specific crop groups, and the consumption of own-production as factors correlated with long-term nutrition among children of different age groups. We find a small positive association between the degree of commercial market-orientation of households and child HAZ, but only among children under 24 months of age.     

Evaluating the Role of Subsidy Reform in Addressing Poverty Levels in Malaysia: A CGE Poverty Framework

Abstract

Malaysia as one of the top subsidised countries around the world has launched to reduce subsidies to capture its development goals. This study, therefore, analyses the effects of the subsidy reform on the macroeconomic, welfare and poverty levels of Malaysia by applying a CGE model. The findings suggest that subsidy removal leads to significant falls in both income and consumption of rural, urban and non-citizen households, and consequently decreases their welfare. However, poverty levels among rural households will most likely increase significantly when compared to urban households due to their relatively low level of income compared to other groups.     

Distributional Effects of Maize Price Increases in Malawi

Abstract

In the wake of highly volatile world prices of staple commodities, we examine the impacts of increases in maize prices on various categories of households in Malawi. Using household-level data, changes in household income are calculated taking into account the net maize production status of the household and food price elasticities estimated from a censored demand system. While maize price increases have unequivocal deleterious effects on the incomes of urban households, rural households experience differential impacts. Net producing households in rural areas benefit from price increases with households above the poverty line obtaining proportionally higher incomes.     

Achieving the American Dream

Abstract

As of March 2003, the immigrant population in the United States (US) has reached 33.5 million individuals. Finding a way out of poverty is very difficult for many immigrants due to both individual and institutional barriers to savings and asset accumulation. Given that the primary sources of wealth among native-born households is through homeownership, it is only fitting that foreign-born households would also wish to achieve the “American Dream.” This paper outlines significant supports and barriers to savings and, more importantly, homeownership among US immigrants. Several suggestions for asset-based policy development for immigrants are also included in the discussion. By examing these concepts, policy practitioners can learn how to improve economic well-being for current immigrants and future generations of Americans.     

Cash or In-kind Transfers? Evidence from a Randomised Controlled Trial in Delhi,India

Abstract

This article examines a randomised intervention in Delhi, India, that provided unconditional cash transfers to a group of households as a replacement for the food security offered by a below-poverty-level card. The experimental approach can differentiate beneficial effects due to either unconditional cash transfers or newly opened bank accounts. The unconditional cash transfer does not induce a decline in food security; rather, it provides opportunities for households to shift to other nutritious options in non-cereal product categories.     

Analysing the Impact of Price Shocks in Rural Economies: Do Household Responses Matter?

We analyse the impact of higher food prices on rural households in Tanzania focusing on the often neglected role of households’ behavioural responses. We introduce a new framework which considers the production response jointly with substitution effects in consumption and takes into account households’ market participation choices. Taking into account behavioural responses on consumption and production can significantly alter the sign and magnitude of the welfare impact in the long run.     

Social Hierarchies and Public Distribution of Food in Rural India

In this paper, we develop a simple model to show that consumption of PDS food grains is significantly different between rich and poor households in states in which the PDS functions relatively well; in states in which the PDS is non-functional, the difference is not significant. Using household-level data from three recent thick rounds of the consumption expenditure survey (2004–2005, 2009–2010, and 2011–2012), we find evidence in support of the predictions from the model. This suggests that one way to make the PDS functional is to make it more accessible to poor and underprivileged households.     

Determinants and Benefits of Household Level Participation in Rural Drinking Water Projects in India

Abstract

Using data from households in 45 villages in rural India, this paper finds that wealth, literacy, household and village size are often determinants of two measures of participation in community-based development projects: meeting attendance and capital cost contributions. Using propensity score matching, this study concludes that participation leads to benefits for the households that participate although these benefits are strongest in regions with higher levels of overall participation. This study finds no evidence of elite capture with both poor and wealthy households benefiting from their participation.