Manufactured exports and terms of trade of developing countries: Evidence from Sri Lanka

Terms of trade implications of diversification into manufactured exports in a traditional primary‐exporting country are examined in the light of the Sri Lankan experience over the past two decades. The empirical analysis focuses on trends in both commodity and income terms of trade, employing a methodology which takes care of the ‘spurious regression’ problem. The results suggest that, contrary to the ‘new’ terms of trade pessimism, export diversification has brought about significant terms of trade gains for the Sri Lankan economy. Overall, the study casts doubt on the robustness of results coming from analyses of price trends in aggregate manufactured exports and calls for systematic time‐profile analyses of the countries which have achieved significant export diversification in order to inform the policy debate.     

Offshore assembly and NIC-manufactured exports to the United States: Changing correlates of success

Comparative studies of the NICs usually show that their success at exporting manufactures to the North is unrelated to the role of intrafirm trade and subcontracting in their exports, since in some very successful NICs intrafirm trade has played a small and diminishing role. This study explores hyptheses suggesting why intrafirm trade and subcontracting may become more important factors in NIC exports because of the changing composition of their exports, changing technology, and developed country protectionism. Data on the share of eight developing countries' manufactured exports to the United States under offshore assembly provision (OAP) item 807.00 are tested for their changing importance to export growth over the period 1970 to 1984. For all NICs, the share of their exports to the United States under OAP became more positively related to export performance in the 1980s than it had been in the 1970s. For Asian NICs, non-OAP exports continued to outperform OAP exports.     

Why Does Zimbabwe Export Manufactures and Uganda Not? Econometrics Meets History

Uganda and Zimbabwe are predicted on the basis of their human and natural resources, to have similar shares of manufactures in their exports However, Uganda falls a long way short of the predicted share, while Zimbabwe greatly exceeds it. Uganda's manufactured export share is unusually small mainly because of high transport costs, due to its distance from the sea and inadequate infrastructure. Zimbabwe's manufactured export share is unusually big mainly because its comparative advantage in manufacturing was enhanced by the know-how brought in by European settlers and a long-term policy of promoting the sector.     

Effective exchange rates for exports in Pakistan

Effective exchange rates for exports in Pakistan can be calculated which take into account the major export incentive measures in operation and their divergent treatment of specific exports. This quantification of export policies into an overall measure of the implicit (effective) foreign exchange rate structure permits an evaluation of the impact of export promotion measures on foreign exchange earning capacity. The major export incentive schemes were found to provide the highes’ subsidies to those exports with the highest total import components and the lowest relative earnings of net foreign exchange. Thus de velopment policy in some cases failed adequately to encourage these producers with relatively higher levels of domestic value‐added to export their products.     

Some Scenarios for Russian Oil Exports up to 2020

This article analyses the potential for Russian oil export growth through the next decade. It concludes that supply for exports will continue to grow, albeit moderately. The greater or lesser intensity of that growth will depend on the evolution of both production and internal consumption, and especially on the reaction by investors to sector changes promoted by government energy policy. From this analysis, we find three likely scenarios for Russian oil exports. The most positive envisages it will be possible to diversify exports while the most negative suggests that Russia will have scant opportunity to develop an export diversification strategy.     

Exports and growth: Additional evidence

In a recent article in this journal [Sheehey, 1990], evidence was presented that the results of a substantial number of studies on exports and growth are biased by a built‐in correlation between exports and GDP. In this note, drawing on the parallel literature on government and growth, the analysis is carried further by investigating for 1960–81 how strong a relationship between exports and growth emerges when alternate export variables not subject to this bias are introduced.     

Foreign capital inflows and output growth rate: A reformulation

A strategy of export promotion has evolved into the new conventional wisdom. The alleged superiority of this strategy draws on an extensive list of empirical studies, an important strand of which consists of tests in cross‐country format that use bivariate correlations and/or production function‐type regressions to demonstrate a strong positive relationship between exports and GDP growth. By showing that these same tests support the ‘promotion’ of all major components of GDP, this note argues that these tests have no bearing at all on the export‐promotion/import‐substitution controversy.     

Developing countries' terms of trade in manufactures, 1967–87: A note

Terms of trade, relating only to manufactured exports and imports, are calculated for a sample of 37 industrialised and developing countries over the 1967 to 1987 period. It is found that the terms of trade movements were significantly more favourable for higher‐income countries. This result highlights the importance of export diversification as part of a development strategy.     

Industrial Restructuring in Romania from a Bilateral Trade Perspective: Manufacturing Exports to the EU from 1995 to 2006

The article presents an analysis of changes in the volume, structure and quality of Romanian manufacturing exports to the EU since 1995 in order to determine the nature and extent of industrial restructuring in Romania. We argue that the observed five-fold increase in the volume of manufactured exports from Romania to the EU over more than a decade-long period, although it is a positive development, still hides a persistent reliance upon labour-intensive and low value-added products. Only towards the end of the examined period have Romania's export patterns begun to resemble those of the more advanced Central and East European countries, reflecting the more important role played by intra-industry exports of differentiated products, the gradual transition from labour intensive, low valued-added exports to more technology-intensive ones and the improvement in product quality.     

FEATURE REVIEW

Between 1987 and 1996 Chinese exports increased by an average of 14% each year. During this decade, export growth became a crucial determinant of overall economic growth. However, as a consequence of the East Asian financial crises, Chinese export growth slowed, threatening the successful implementation of plans to restructure the domestic Chinese economy. This paper traces the reasons for the rapid growth and subsequent slowing of Chinese exports, and asks whether the strategy provides a solid basis for the long term development of the Chinese economy. In particular, the paper focuses on the role and significance of the processing trade in boosting Chinese exports. The high proportion of imported components in processed exports questions whether China is really benefiting as much from export growth as aggregate trade figures seem to suggest.     

Export concentration and export performance in developing countries, 1954–67

The relationship between export concentration and various aspects of the export performance of 31 developing nations during the period 1954–67 is considered in this paper.¹ Estimates of the magnitude, instability and time‐trend of both the geographic concentration of exports and export earnings are utilised to estimate the direction and strength of association between these aspects of export concentration, instability and growth.² The analysis reveals diverse patterns of geographic export concentration among the countries, but offers little support for conventional views of an important direct relationship between export concentration and the instability or growth rate of export earnings.³     

Exports,growth and threshold effects in Africa

Abstract

The relationship between openness and growth remains a controversial issue in development economics with many studies focusing on the export–growth relationship. This paper examines whether the relationship between exports and growth found in large cross-section studies also holds in the context of African economies. The paper employs threshold regression techniques to examine whether African countries benefit more from exports when they reach a certain level of development or openness. Our results suggest that there is indeed a positive relationship between exports and growth in Africa. The threshold regression analysis also suggests that it is not necessary for a country to reach a certain level of development or to have an existing export base for this relationship to hold, though it is found that the relationship is stronger for countries that experience higher rates of export growth.     

Employment effects of output and technological progress in Malaysian manufacturing

A major factor contributing to the growth in industrial employment in Malaysia was the implementation of the export‐oriented industrialisation strategy. With the withdrawal of GSP privileges to the USA, the inevitable loss of comparative advantage in labour cost and the emergence of trading blocs, it is feared that the growth of the export‐oriented sectors in manufacturing will be impeded, causing a serious unemployment problem. This fear is compounded by the increasing shift to technology‐intensive methods of production which displace labour. This article shows that domestic demand and export expansion exert positive and almost equal influence on industrial employment. Any negative impact on employment due to a shortfall in exports could be neutralised if an appropriate choice of import‐substituting and export expansion policies is adopted. Displacement of labour due to the substitution effect of using technology‐ and capital‐intensive production is largely compensated for by the increase in labour utilisation due to the output effect of increased production for both the domestic and foreign markets.     

International tourism and export instability

Export diversification has been suggested as a strategy for decreasing the level of export earnings instability which is experienced by many developing countries. In recent years the international tourism sector has made an increasingly important contribution to the economies of many low income countries. This article examines whether diversification into the non‐traditional tourism sector has succeeded in decreasing the instability of export earnings. It was found that although tourism has the advantage of high growth rates and is a major source of foreign currency receipts, earnings from international tourism did not bring about a significant decrease in the instability of export earnings of most of the developing and industrialised countries considered. Furthermore, a net increase in the instability of earnings from tourism and merchandise exports occurred in a number of countries, and may be a particular problem in small, open developing economies.     

Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

The political landscape of post-independent sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been one of rampant coups d'etat. Existing evidence suggests such elite political instability (PI) has been growth-inhibiting even when exports are accounted for. In the light of the increasing interest in the role of export-promotion strategies in fostering economic growth, however, the present paper examines the impact of PI on export performance in these economies. The paper explores the hypothesis that the lack of a stable political environment adversely influences export performance via competitiveness, and that PI may actually play a more crucial role in export than in overall GDP growth. Based on detailed data on the incidence of coups in 30 SSA countries, real export growth over 1967-1986 is regressed on a principal-component of the various forms of coup events - "successful" coups, abortive coups, and coup plots - as well as on export structure, terms of trade, production capacity, and exchange rate misalignment. The results support the above hypothesis of an adverse impact of PI on export growth, and further suggest that PI has been even more deleterious to exports than to overall GDP.     

Trade liberalisation,government expenditure and economic growth in Egypt

This article investigates the combined effects of growth in government expenditure, exports, investment and labour supply on economic growth in Egypt between 1955 and 1996. Using cointegration and error correction models, the article finds a long‐run relationship between the variables, but less evidence of one in the short run. To account for the important policy reforms in 1974 and 1991, dummy variables are added which show the reforms have significantly affected the relationship between government expenditure and growth in a positive direction, but have had a negative effect on exports and growth. This conclusion is further supported by the time‐varying coefficient analysis.     

Tansnationals and foreign trade: Evidence from Brazil

A recursive model of exports and imports of manufactures, in which imports depend in part on exports, is estimated using data for a cross‐section of 17,053 industrial firms. In this sample, 652 firms are foreign‐owned. Explanatory variables include firm size, skill intensity, advertising and other variables in addition to foreign ownership. Foreign ownership has a large, independent effect on both export performance and import propensities, but foreign ownership in itself explains little of the relatively low export/import ratios registered by affiliates of transnationals.     

Gender wage inequality and export‐led growth in South Korea

This article investigates the relationship between gender, wage inequality, and export‐led growth in South Korea. The persistent gender wage gap in Korea's manufacturing sector is found to be linked to women's segregation in the country's major export industries where real wage growth has lagged productivity growth, despite favorable market conditions that might drive up women's wages relative to those of men. The interaction of state‐ and firm‐level hiring, training, and promotion practices that structure women's and men's employment opportunities differently appear to have resulted in a relatively weaker fall‐back position for women in labour markets. Econometric results are consistent with the hypothesis that women's weaker fall‐back position limits their ability to bargain for wage increases commensurate with productivity growth. Further, evidence is presented which links gender wage inequality to the growth of Korean exports.     

Corruption Along Ethnic Lines: A Study of Individual Corruption Experiences in 17 African Countries

Income growth in Africa that is high enough to achieve the internationally agreed development goals implies a rise in the region's per capita income by the early 2020s to about Latin America's current level. The paper shows that such income growth would be associated roughly with a nine-fold increase in Africa's manufactured exports, but also with a tripling of its primary exports, which in absolute terms would account for two-thirds of the increase in the region's total exports. Focusing on the demand potential for such an increase in Africa's primary exports, the paper argues that rising global demand from sustained rapid growth in natural-resource-poor Asian countries, particularly China, provides sizeable new opportunities for Africa's primary exports. In Africa, extractive industries are poised best to benefit directly from China's rising imports, while exporters of agricultural products are more likely to benefit indirectly from rising world market prices associated with Asia's growing primary imports.     

A norm for a stabilizing budget policy in less developed export economies

The stabilization problem of an export economy is defined as smoothing the fluctuations in real income resulting from sharp changes in the value of exports. A stabilizing fiscal policy should be contractionary in good export years and expansionary in bad export years. A norm is developed to measure whether fiscal policy achieves this aim. The revenue impact of the budget is hypothesized to be generally stabilizing and the sample results bear out this hypothesis. However, the total fiscal impact is less clearly stabilizing, as expenditure policy may offset the revenue effect and tend to accentuate rather than smooth out fluctuations in real income.