Unlikely candidates for democracy: The role of structural context in democratic consolidation

Many contributors to the new literature on democratic consolidation overemphasize the role of political leadership, strategic choices about basic institutional arrangements or economic policy, and other contingent process variables. Their focus on political crafting has encounraged an undue optimism about the possibility of consolidating democracies in unfavorable structural contexts. This article critiques the current literature and asserts the primary importance of structural context in democratic consolidation. The powerful influence of structural context is illustrated by using just two structural variables, economic development level and prior authoritarian regime type, to indicate a group of thirty-eight countries in which democracy has failed to consolidate during the third wave of democratization (1974-present) and is very unlikely to do so in the near or medium-term future. Men make their own history, but they do not make it just as they please; they do not make it under circumstances chosen by themselves, but under circumstances directly found, given and transmitted from the past. J. Mark Ruhl is Gleen and Mary Todd Professor of Political Science and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Dickinson College in Carlisle, PA. He has written extensively on Latin American politics and has specialized in the cases of Colombia and Honduras. Recent publications by Professor Ruhl includeParty Politics and Elections in Latin America (Westview, 1989), coauthored with R.H. McDonald of Syracuse University, and “Redefining Civil-Military Relations in Honduras”Journal of Intermerican Studies and World Affairs (Spring 1996).     

An Evaluation of Leadership as a Response to Agency Failure in the Public Sector

An alternative to contractual solutions to agency problems is suggested in the literature on leadership in which leaders are often claimed to be able to steer historical processes in the direction they intend through the distinctive influence they have on the intrinsic motivation of their followers. We evaluate Casson's (1991) agency–theoretic model of leadership as 'moral manipulation' which under certain conditions can be exercised at lower agency cost than monitoring. We then make a case for conceiving leadership as the development of culture of passion to advance the leader's quest through the engagement of followers in 'interaction rituals' in which their passion is either recharged or their lack of passion exposed. The impact the emergence of such cultures can have on the policy–making community is examined using the British and New Zealand experiences and a case is made for the preservation of a counter–culture of 'public interest' in the policy advisory ranks of the civil service.     

Motivations behind citizen aid: Norwegian initiatives in The Gambia

Abstract

Little is known about citizen aid initiatives originating in Norway, and they are not recognised as part of the official Norwegian development aid. Citizen aid initiatives are personal and small, and by themselves they do not raise large sums of money, nor do they individually have a large-scale development impact. But collectively, their influence on sponsors in Norway and on aid beneficiaries in the Global South might be substantial. Through qualitative interviews, this study explores the motivations of Norwegian founders of citizen aid initiatives, who run small development projects in The Gambia. The study finds that they are motivated by the very characteristics of these citizen aid initiatives which set them apart from formal development organisations. These include the initiatives’ small size, which allows for a personal closeness to and control over the projects. These features are often interconnected with motivations stemming from the founders’ personal experiences. The study finds that, inasmuch as the founders see the need for beneficiaries to be supported, they also experience a need to help themselves. The founders’ identities, as helpers and givers, are both formed and continually reinforced by their personal involvement in this specific type of aid work.     

SCRUTINIZING PERFORMANCE: HOW ASSESSORS REACH JUDGEMENTS ABOUT PUBLIC SERVICES

Strengthening the accountability and improving the performance of public services is an important issue in many countries. A common response is to impose elaborate oversight or scrutiny arrangements. While we know a good deal about the formal operation of these arrangements, we know much less about the informal practices of scrutiny bodies and how they make judgements. This paper investigates scrutiny processes in three national audit bodies, three service inspectorates, and two inquiry committees in the UK. Judgement processes were analyzed along five dimensions: intuitive to analytical thinking; implicit to explicit assessment criteria; inductive and deductive methods; internal and external validity; and the principles used to make and evaluate judgements. These processes varied considerably, suggesting the need for a broader conception of the nature of and influences on scrutiny processes, which recognizes the inherent tensions in these processes and the skills required by those who engage in them.     

Overview of economy-wide nafta models

In the recent debate about the costs and benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), both proponents and opponents used the empirical results of several economic models to support their arguments. Most of the quantitative estimates were provided by computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are part of the growing literature known as applied general equilibrium.

The CGE model is a powerful tool that can make important contributions to policy debates. Compared to other approaches, CGE models rest on a relatively more solid theoretical foundation. However, the numerical analysis has to be interpreted properly. Quantitative estimates are highly tentative and contingent on the assumptions of the models. Thus, estimates should not be interpreted as predictions but rather as providing some indication of the direction of the various economic changes induced by a certain policy change.

This paper provides an overview of the CGE approach, and of its application to NAFTA. After outlining how a CGE model works, it reviews some of the quantitative results of CGE models used to assess the impact of NAFTA. The paper is intended for an audience not trained in economics.     

ON THE USE OF NARRATIVES FOR ASSESSING DEVELOPMENT POLICY

The paper discusses the extent to which narratives enrich human development policy assessment beyond statistical data. Our arguments are divided in three parts. First, after introducing the capability approach, we examine the theoretical rationale for assessing policy beyond statistics and the relevance of narratives in policy assessment. Second, we review one major exception in policy assessment, the European Union (EU) Community Infrastructure measure. The paper theorizes interpretive approaches and the use of narratives in policy assessment. It suggests that in order for the capability approach to make a significant contribution to policy research we should explore the absolute presuppositions underpinning policy-making, and recognize that there is no intelligible distinction between quantitative and qualitative research: both acquire meaning in terms of the social plot in which they are mobilized. Consequently, we argue that future understanding of human wellbeing must be conceptualized within a meta-theoretic framework.     

Natural Disasters and Social Preferences: The Effect of Tsunami-Memories on Cheating in Sri Lanka

This study analyses how past tsunami-memories affect cheating in Sri Lanka. Subjects are assigned to a treatment (control) group in which they watch a video about the calamity before (after) participating in a trust game. Cheating is elicited by asking trustors how much they need to receive not to feel cheated and trustees how much they need to return not to make the trustor feel cheated. Finally, participants report whether the video mostly reminded them about solidarity, looting or the calamity. Trustors show lower cheating standards and trustees more often satisfy the trustors’ cheating notion if they mostly recall solidarity.     

Why Greek Terrorists Give Up: Analyzing Individual Exit from the Revolutionary Organization 17 November

This article seeks to analyze the life histories of two former members, Patroklos Tselentis and Sotiris Kondylis, of the defunct terrorist group, the Greek Revolutionary Organization 17 November (1975–2002) in order to look for causes of disengagement, dissociation, and repentance. Analyzing the life histories of Patroklos Tselentis and Sotiris Kondylis offers valuable insights into the development of complex processes of involvement in and disengagement from 17 November terrorism. The detail stemming from their testimonies provides a more complete picture of the group's internal dynamics and challenges a range of simplistic stereotypes, not only about the individuals involved in terrorism but also about the ways in which they make decisions and reflect on their experiences of being part of a terrorist organization.     

PUBLIC POLICY NETWORKS AND ‘WICKED PROBLEMS’: A NASCENT SOLUTION?

The last two decades have seen a shift in public services organizations from hierarchies to networks. Network forms are seen as particularly suited to handling ‘wicked problems'. We make an assessment of the nature and impact of this shift. Using recent evidence from the United Kingdom (UK) National Health Service (NHS), we explore the nature and functioning of eight different public policy networks. We are also interested in whether there has been a radical transition – or not – from hierarchical to network forms.     

What autocracies say (and what citizens hear): proposing four mechanisms of autocratic legitimation

ABSTRACT

Autocratic governments make claims about why they are entitled to rule. Some autocracies are more talkative than others, but all regimes say something about why they deserve power. This article takes seriously these efforts by introducing and interrogating the concept of autocratic legitimation. After engaging in a definitional discussion, it traces the development of autocratic legitimation in modern political science by identifying major turning points, key concepts, and patterns of inquiry over time. Ultimately, this introductory article aims to not only argue that studying autocratic legitimation is important, but also to propose contexts, concepts, and distinctions for doing so productively. To this end, the article proposes four mechanisms of autocratic legitimation that can facilitate comparative analysis: indoctrination, passivity, performance, and democratic-procedural. Finally, the essay briefly introduces the five original articles that comprise the remainder of this special issue on autocratic legitimation. The article identifies avenues for further research and identifies how each article in the issue advances down productive pathways of inquiry.     

Monetary policy in europe: towards a european central bank and one european currency

Most alternative blueprints for European Monetary Union (EMU) differ in their opinions about convergence requirements or the need for binding fiscal rules and controls of individual national governments' debt policies, but there is, if not complete consensus, widespread agreement that the European Central Bank (ECB) should be independent of political control from both European Community (EC) institutions and national governments. The main argument for an independent European central bank is empirical: those countries in which central banks are insulated from the political process and charged with maintaining price stability have experienced the lowest and most stable inflation rates in recent decades. The present paper reviews and critically evaluates this political economy literature which relates inflation performances to the constitutional features of central bank statutes. Based on this assessment the draft statutes of the ECB and the constitutions of the individual European national central banks are discussed in terms of the independence they grant central bank board members from partisan influences. Furthermore, concrete country-specific suggestions for enhancing central bank independence during stage two of the gradual transition to EMU, which is to be completed by 1999, are made. It is argued that in some countries laborious constitutional reforms of central bank statutes are overdue and must be implemented in order to make these institutions fit for an anti-inflationary EMU.     

A working model to help institutionalize quality improvements in local governments

This article describes a working model designed to help leadership in public management introduce quality improvements and eventually facilitate transformations to quality organizations (TQO). By quality improvements and transformations to quality organizations -- whether in government, public education, public health, or other fields of activity -- we mean those institutional changes which reliably achieve ever greater effectiveness in accomplishing mission and responsively achieve ever higher levels of measurable service to public “customers.”

This article discusses the development of an organizational assessment instrument which the authors designed for the County of Los Angeles. Building on the Malcolm Baldrige National Quality Award and the President's Award in the USA, as well as on the review of other state and local criteria and comments received through a national review process, the authors formulated criteria of quality management with a view toward public service customers, particularly at local levels of government.

The model described has been initially applied to conduct self-assessments in four departments of Los Angeles County. It is also intended for broader use by administrative practitioners and scholars interested in the organizational change process. This article reports the development of the working model and identifies some lessons learned. The purpose of this article is threefold: (1) to inform about quality developments in the County of Los Angeles, (2) to present the working model as a point of departure for dialogue about the role which quality criteria might play in strengthening local governments more broadly, and (3) to consider the working model's possible use in facilitating shared mutual learning across geographic and other boundaries electronically.     

Mine smartness and the community voice in mine-risk education: lessons from Afghanistan and Angola

Mine-risk education programmes will fall short of their intended impact for as long as they fail to take into account local responses—knowledge, logic and everyday practices—to mine threats. Community information, systematically collected through household and institutional surveys, can help to define and understand endogenous ‘mine smartness’. The same evidence provides insight into the impact of mine-risk education, including its unintended consequences. Using six criteria of mine smartness, ciet carried out evaluations of mine-risk education in Afghanistan (1997) and Angola (1999). The first clear lesson to be drawn from these evaluations is that people in mine-affected areas do generate their own broadly effective means of facing the daily threat of mines. The second lesson is that people take risks for reasons that make sense to them: ‘education’ that landmines are dangerous probably adds little value for them. The third lesson is that mine-risk education that does not take into account these first two lessons can cause harm. The evaluations produced evidence of unintended risk-taking by people exposed to mine-risk education programmes.     

PLAYING THE TRANSPARENCY GAME: CONSULTATION AND POLICY-MAKING IN THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION

The recent unveiling of a package of measures designed to make the work of the European Commission more‘transparent’is part of a wider effort to make EU decision-making more open and accessible. Yet, the Commission's transparency package was designed above all to cope with its chronic management problems. These include rigid lines of division between different spheres of the Commission, the strong loyalties of policy-concerned Directorates-General (dg s) to their specific‘clientele’, unclear rules governing access to information, and intense rivalries between dg s and the private offices of individual Commissioners. This article dissects the transparency package and uses case study material to highlight ways in which the transparency initiative seeks to provide antidotes to the Commission's management problems. It offers an early assessment of the transparency package's impact and examines the prospects for reform of the Commission under Jacques Santer.     

The relevance and reliability of performance information for accountability: A survey experiment exploring citizens' views

This study explores the impact of the configuration of performance information on citizens' perceptions regarding the impact of the information on their lives and the reliability they assign to it. We conducted a survey experiment among a representative sample of the Israeli population. The treatment included the object being measured, the identity of those who manage the performance management mechanism, and the trend of the results. We also compared the education and police sectors. Our findings indicate that, overall, citizens feel that performance information has only a low-to-medium effect on their lives, and assign a similar level of reliability to that information. The configuration of performance information helps explain this perceived impact only to a limited extent. These findings question the usefulness of performance reporting mechanisms as a major tool for strengthening accountability and raise serious doubts about the possible ways to improve these mechanisms and make them more effective.     

Measures for mines: approaches to impact assessment in humanitarian mine action

The ability to assess the impact of humanitarian interventions is key both for priority-setting and for maximising the quality of projects. Humanitarian mine action (hma) is a young sector, where the application of impact assessment is still in its infancy. In this article we will briefly revisit the history of impact assessment in hma, before reviewing the strengths and weaknesses of three different impact-assessment approaches: 1) the Landmine Impact Survey; 2) economic analysis; and 3) community studies. Each of the approaches has its own merits as well as its own shortcomings and the selection of one approach, or several approaches combined, needs to be informed by the particular conditions in a given setting. We argue that hma should always be based on sound impact-assessment practices, but also that it is important to encourage a general understanding of broader impact issues—as opposed to narrow output definitions—among all relevant stakeholders. In spite of considerable progress over the past few years on this issue, impact in mine action is still largely perceived as an event rather than an integral part of the process and specialised units responsible for impact assessment isolate this activity from day-to-day field management.     

Development impact fees: Modeling future growth and economic development in a south Carolina community

User fees are an attractive alternative to general taxes, especially property taxes, insofar as they are stable and appropriate. The development impact fee is sometimes used in growing communities, and can relieve the service cost burden of new development to existing residents in the short term. Their proper use demands forecasting development trends, population growth and economic conditions. The city of Mount Pleasant, South Carolina - a suburb of Charleston - has used simple models to assess impact fees for the past seven years. This paper will describe the models used to determine impact fees and also describe a more filly developed revenue model used to predict future growth of impact fees as one category of local revenue.     

Iraqi Refugees in Syria: causing a spillover of the Iraqi conflict?

This article explores the implications of the Iraqi refugee crisis for Syria, which is believed to host up to 1.5 million Iraqi refugees. Many policy makers, activists and analysts, sometimes inspired by the conflict repercussions of refugee crises witnessed elsewhere, have warned against the regional security impact of the Iraqi exodus and consequently speculated about a possible spillover of the armed conflicts in Iraq to its neighbours. The article presents an analysis of the characteristics and composition of the Iraqi refugee population and provides an assessment of responses to the refugee crisis in Syria. Its main finding is that fears for a spillover of Iraq's violence cannot be corroborated. The relative absence of refugee violence can be explained in reference to Iraqi refugees themselves. Given their specific demographic and social traits (including age composition, educational levels and professions, and to some extent religious affiliation), in addition to refugees' sectarian segregation, an overwhelming majority of Iraqi refugees are and remain victims of the violence in Iraq; they are unlikely to become its perpetrators abroad. In this sense the Iraqi refugee crisis constitutes a strong reminder that, in order to assess the propensity of violence among refugees and their purportedly contagious impact on their places of refuge, an understanding of the causes of their flight and their roles in the conflict they are fleeing is essential. It is finally argued that security challenges are likely to come from a different source. Socioeconomic destitution among refugees and the failure to provide adequate humanitarian assistance and protection are and will be causing tensions between them and the host state and host communities.     

The true extent of global poverty and hunger: questioning the good news narrative of the Millennium Development Goals

The final report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) concludes that the project has been ‘the most successful anti-poverty movement in history’. Two key claims underpin this narrative: that global poverty has been cut in half, and global hunger nearly in half, since 1990. This good-news narrative has been touted by the United Nations and has been widely repeated by the media. But closer inspection reveals that the UN’s claims about poverty and hunger are misleading, and even intentionally inaccurate. The MDGs have used targeted statistical manipulation to make it seem as though the poverty and hunger trends have been improving when in fact they have worsened. In addition, the MDGs use definitions of poverty and hunger that dramatically underestimate the scale likely of these problems. In reality, around four billion people remain in poverty today, and around two billion remain hungry – more than ever before in history, and between two and four times what the UN would have us believe. The implications of this reality are profound. Worsening poverty and hunger trends indicate that our present model of development is not working and needs to be fundamentally rethought.