'New regionalism' in Central America

Central American regionalism is in a state of disarray after having been surrounded by great enthusiasm in the early 1990s. This article explores whether a 'new regionalism' framework can improve our understanding of this turn of events. It is argued that Central American integration lacks a series of features assumed to characterise 'new regionalism'. It has not been accompanied by spontaneous societal integration, its main stimulus has come from external actors, and the goal of the process has narrowed from originally being human welfare and security in a wide sense, to primarily being integration in the global economy. This is reflected in the integrationist rhetoric, where globalisation has entered the centre stage and is presented as a threat to which regional action should respond. This change has also rendered regional agreements largely superfluous as the member states pursue policies aimed at global integration regardless of the integration process.     

Assessing the impact of financial liberalisation on stock market volatility in selected developing countries

This article argues for the importance of measuring stock market volatility following financial liberalisation in developing countries. Three alternative indices for measuring volatility are developed; these are used to examine the view that financial liberalisation induces increased asset price volatility. Based on the limited data available, this view is corroborated in the majority of countries investigated.     

Trade,Development, and Nonproliferation: Multilevel Counterterrorism in Central Asia

This article was presented in its original form in October 2005 at the Conference on Central Asian Security in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. This article seeks to add to the discourse on counterterrorism by looking at the challenges posed by sub-state radicalism to development and regionalization. Specifically, adequate counterterror campaigns require addressing socioeconomic feeders of radicalism while simultaneously dealing with the threat of political violence itself. In terms of development, this means advocating increased trade volumes and export oriented growth while concurrently controlling for illicit trade (which often finances terrorist movements) and trade in strategic goods (which could serve to undermine the security of the state). The authors use the case study of Uzbekistan and Central Asian insecurity to illustrate the utility of customs modernization, border security, and export control legislation as integral components in wider counterterror campaigns. The study addresses circumstances specific to present day Central Asia but has wider implications in stymieing the relationship between “grey areas” and terrorist movements worldwide.     

Financial market liberalisation in LDCs: The incidence of risk allocation effects of interest rate increases

’High’ deposit interest rates are central to the financial liberalisation argument. The article investigates the relatively neglected issue of who must pay. Two issues are stressed. If loan charges increase the incidence falls on (typically), highly geared businesses and overall financial saving may not rise as claimed. Second, although loan charges need not increase (and enhanced credit availability may compensate borrowers if they do), the financial risks of banks increase. These risks are pertinent to monetary policy and may force actions contrary to the liberalisation approach. Institutional developments to foster the supply of risk‐bearing capital are emphasised in conclusion.     

Rural poverty and agricultural performance in India

This paper examines time series evidence on rural poverty over the past two decades. The time series shows that the incidence of poverty fluctuates in response to variations in real agricultural output per head, but there is no significant time trend. There is a statistically significant inverse relationship between rural poverty and agricultural performance for India as a whole, suggesting that agricultural growth by itself tends to reduce the incidence of poverty. The analysis for individual states presents a somewhat different picture. The inverse relationship between output per head and rural poverty is observed in several states but there is also evidence that there are processes at work which tend to increase the incidence of poverty, independently of variations in agricultural output per head.     

Trade creation,trade diversion and effective protection in the central American common market

Aggregate analyses suggest that the formation of the Central American Common Market (CACM) has resulted in little or no trade diversion, but different conclusions apply when the import data are appropriately disaggregated. Increases in the effective rates of protection for consumer goods have led to increased demand for extra‐regional imports of intermediate inputs and decreased demand for extra‐regional imports of final goods. On balance, the CACM is a trade‐diverting customs union for non‐durable consumer goods: trade‐creating effects are present in Honduras and Costa Rica, but trade‐diverting effects dominate in Guatemala, El Salvador and Nicaragua.     

The ambiguities of political terrorism in Central America

Abstract

Over the last ten years left‐wing terrorism in Central America has spawned a number of related and opposed phenomena. Right‐wing terrorism has become very active but has degenerated into pseudo‐left‐wing terrorism and finally into gangsterism. Examples of this are the alleged Chacon group in El Salvador and the related activities of the Zimeri gang in Guatemala. Non‐Central American factors have also come into play, such as connections with the PLO and the activities of Cuban exile groups. This situation has made it extremely difficult to label any individual act of terrorism as being related to the Right or to the Left.     

Openness and Growth: Re-Examining Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Output Linkages in Latin America

The openness–growth connection is still an open question in the empirical literature. Although some studies have found that openness has a positive impact on economic performance, others have seriously questioned the significance of this result. The main point that we try to emphasise in this paper is that openness involves more than just trade liberalisation. The increasing importance of international capital flows and especially foreign direct investment (FDI) seems to be another relevant component of outward oriented policies. Therefore, by using quarterly data from the late seventies to 2000, we investigate the effects of liberalisation in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina by taking into account trade and FDI growth links. The results suggest that it is important to consider both exports and FDI to ascertain the benefits associated to the outward oriented strategies followed by these countries.     

Democratic consolidation in Central America: A qualitative comparative approach

An end to KKN-the Indonesian acronym for corruption, collusion and nepotism-is currently one of the demands of Indonesia's growing reform movement. This is not the first time corruption has been on the political agenda in Indonesia; indeed, Suharto came to power promising to end corruption. Tackling corruption, however, was not one of the priorities of the Suharto regime and under Suharto KKN thrived while protesting voices were silenced. This article examines the political, economic and cultural conditions which have allowed corruption to flourish in Indonesia and concludes by considering whether the new poltical mood in the country since the fall of Suharto offers hope for a new, more corruption-free Indonesia.     

中国拉美经贸关系迅速发展

去年11月中国国家主席胡锦涛拉美四国之行和今年1月国家副主席曾庆红对拉美五国的访问均取得圆满成功.从而推动了中国拉美经贸关系的迅速发展.     

Characteristics and performance of Japanese foreign direct investment in latin America

This paper describes the characteristics of Japanese foreign investment in Latin America. In examining FDI patterns, we identify the countries and industries most attractive to Japanese multinational corporations, the preferred modes of entry, and the post-entry performance of these subsidiaries. We find that most Japanese FDI has occurred in Brazil and Mexico, that joint ventures are the most common mode of entry, and that performance varies by country and mode. The observations have implications for three groups of executives: managers of non-Latin American firms, managers of Latin American firms, and public policy makers.     

中亚博弈:2005年俄稍占上风

俄美争夺中亚,是中亚国家独立后展现在国际上的一道风景线,数年间此起彼伏,争斗不止,总的趋势是俄退美进,但2005年则是俄稍占上风.     

Path-Dependent Explanations of Regime Change: Central America in Comparative Perspective

This article explores the application of ideas about path dependence to the study of national political regime change. It first reviews the central components of pathdependent explanation, including the concepts of critical juncture and legacy. This mode of explanation is then employed in the analysis of diverging regime trajectories in Central America during the 19th and 20th centuries. The article argues that the 19th-century liberal reform period was a critical juncture that locked the Central American countries onto divergent paths of long-term development, culminanting in sharply contrasting regime outcomes. A final section puts the argument about Central America in a broader comparative perspective by considering other pathdependent explanations of regime change. James Mahoney is assistant professor of sociology at Brown University. He is the author ofThe Legacies of Liberalism: Path Dependence and Political Regimes in Central America (2001). His current research focuses on long-run development and the legacy of Spanish colonialism in Latin America. For helpful comments and criticisms on an earlier draft, I would like to thank David Collier, Gerardo L. Munck, and the anonymous referees.     

Regional inequalities,economic growth and liberalisation: A study of the Indian economy

In this article we examine the pattern of regional inequalities in India during 1970–92. Trend analysis shows that inter‐state inequality is rising in India in almost every sphere of economic activity, particularly in the unorganised industry.     

NGO strategies beyond aid: Perspectives from Central and South America and the Philippines

Though unevenly spread, many developing countries are experiencing a decline in aid flows. This paper explores and compares NGDO responses in regions and countries in or entering a 'beyond-aid scenario'. The comparison shows that, despite a diversity of contexts and histories, the quest for self-sustainability has become a common and dominant concern. Within a framework of options, examples show what is being attempted in terms of NGDOs altering their resource profile and the problems they encounter in doing so. Emerging evidence suggests that NGDOs are more likely to sustain themselves if they (a) look beyond finance to adopt an integrated, capacity-based approach to sustainability and internal organisational reform and (b) put effort into making good their 'relational deficit' with a wider array of domestic constituencies.     

The scope and limits of financial liberalisation in developing countries: A critical survey

This article reviews the growing literature on financial reform in developing countries. We draw both on the theoretical contributions outlining the case for and against liberalisation as well as on the experience of many developing countries with liberalisation. We argue that the existence of market failures in financial markets hampers the liberalisation process and indeed suggests that the simple liberalising strategy envisaged in much of the literature is inappropriate. We argue instead for an alternative strategy which integrates some aspects of liberalisation with the development of appropriate financial institutions designed to serve best the needs of the real economy.     

中俄关系中的美国因素

中俄战略协作伙伴关系的建立和发展除了中俄两国的内在需要外,美国的国际战略及其对俄、对华政策产生了巨大影响.美国因素对中俄关系的性质、范围、层次、作用和未来走向有着十分重要的作用.就以往来看,美国因素的影响主要表现在四个方面.目前,美国的对俄、对华政策再次面临调整,受其影响,中俄关系的未来走势有四种可能.