中央-地区-地方自治:当代俄罗斯的中央再集权政策

俄罗斯中央再集权政策的源头、基本观念和利益是什么?这些因素又是如何影响了它的进程和结果?中央再集权对俄罗斯政治发展的意义到底有多大,前景如何?本文旨在探寻这些问题的答案.本文首先纵览俄罗斯1990-2000年变革背景下的地区化趋势;接着考察2000年以来中央再集权进程中各政治力量的理念和利益所在,及其对俄罗斯联邦改革政策的影响,该政策可以称之为"新中央集权"(区别于苏联时期的"旧"中央集权).接下来分析"新中央集权"政策的基本特征及其对俄罗斯国家改革进程的影响.在总结部分,就中央再集权对俄罗斯政治制度的意义加以总结.     

Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy: Observations on the Devolution Process in Russia

A specialist on regional politics and center-periphery relations in the Russian Federation examines the process of devolution of authority from Moscow to the regions in the 1990s. A discussion of the process by which federal treaties were negotiated is followed by an examination of types of de facto policy autonomy that have emerged at the regional level by default. Research sources include Russianlanguage documents and interviews with a range of central and regional officials. There follows a discussion of the impact on the devolution process of the institutional structure of the Russian state.     

Russian Policy to Asian Regionalism

In the last fifteen years Russian government policy has seen dramatic changes from almost complete leaning towards the West to a more balanced approach taking into account Russia's interests in Asia. This reversal of attitude was dictated by internal and external factors which, if not addressed, could severely compromise Russian overall position in the world and internal development of its eastern parts. The Russian federal government and their local authorities' policies towards regional groupings in Asia reflect their desire to take part in integration processes. Despite certain achievements in this field, obstacles remain on the road to full-fledged Russian participation benefiting Russia as well as other states. The problems emanate both from internal and external reasons. There are numerous discussions in the expert community on bow to deal with issues hindering economic development of the Russian Far East but they all agree that it cannot be achieved without the active interaction with Asian neighbors.     

Latvia’s eastern region: international tensions and political system loyalty

Latgale’s frontier region status makes it vulnerable in a time of growing international tension, all the more because of its strong Russian minority and persistent socio-economic problems causing disaffection. A two-directional analysis of linkage interactions – inner-directed and outer-directed – highlights both external threats and also regional conditions that act as a check on ‘hybrid warfare’ activity, such as centripetal center–periphery relations, stabilizing factors in society and a new policy response by Riga to Latgale’s developmental needs. Latgale is therefore no ‘Crimea’ as it shows a basic loyalty to the Latvian state, very little support for separatism while of course Latvia benefits from NATO membership.     

The politics of federal transfers in Putin’s Russia: regional competition,lobbying, and federal priorities

Most studies of intergovernmental financial flows in the Russian Federation focus on the federal center’s decision-making in determining the direction of these flows. Anecdotal evidence, however, suggests that regional governments employ a variety of tools and strategies to compete over federal transfers. This study uses data on federal transfers during 2002–2012 to examine the factors associated with the politically sensitive share of such transfers occurring in this period. The key findings highlight the importance of administrative capacity and the value of attracting attention from, as well as cultivating relations with, federal officials for shaping decision-making on the distribution of federal transfers. We discuss some specific strategies used by more successful regional governments in attracting additional federal funds.     

Comments on “Soviet Transport Trends, 1950–1990”

A political scientist and specialist on Russian electoral and ethnic politics provides an explanation of machine politics in Russia's regions that accounts for the great variation in the power of these machines. The focus is on distinguishing among the economic and ethnic legacies of the Soviet period, the effects of the transition itself, and the impact of provincial leadership. As evidence, the author presents a historicalinterpretive examination of Russia's transition at the level of provincial politics as well as a statistical analysis of factors impacting the strength of regional machine candidates in the 1999 single-member-district Duma elections.     

‘Going away on foot’ once again: the revival of temporary labour migration from Russia's Dagestan

This article addresses temporary labour migration – known in Russian as otkhodnichestvo (going away on foot) – from the Russian republic of Dagestan. The discussion is situated within reviews of current work on migration in the former Soviet Union, push-pull factors determining migration behaviour in the North Caucasus, and the historical importance of otkhodnichestvo in imperial Russia and the USSR. The paper then turns to the results of a census conducted in summer 2006, which found that most migrants come from Dagestan's mountainous southwest, frequently obtain work at locations characterized by economic growth and high pay, and rely on ethnic or communal networks as a basis for choosing employment sector and destination when searching for work.     

What explains regional variation in election fraud? Evidence from Russia: a research note

The December 2011 legislative election was among the most fraudulent national elections in Russia since the communist period. The fraud, however, was not evenly spread across the country. Precinct-level election returns from the 83 regions of the Russian Federation suggest that the level of fraud ranged from minimal or small in some regions to extreme in some others, with moderate to high fraud levels in many regions in between. We argue that in an electoral authoritarian context like Russia, regional variation in fraud can be explained by differences in (a) the perceived need by regional authorities to signal loyalty to the center by “delivering” desired election results; (b) the capacity of regional authorities to organize fraud; and (c) the vulnerability of citizens to political pressure and manipulation. We test the effect of signaling, capacity, and vulnerability on electoral fraud in the 2011 legislative elections with data on the 83 regions of the Russian Federation. We find evidence for all three mechanisms, finding that the tenure of governors in office, United Russia's dominance in regional legislatures, and the ethnic composition of regions are most important for explaining regional variation in electoral fraud.     

Privatization in Russia's Regions

An American specialist on Russian and post-Soviet politics examines regional variations in the privatization of both large and small industrial enterprises in Russia during 1992-1994. Using regional statistical data, both published and unpublished, interviews with actors and documentary materials from the Russian press, the author finds substantial differences among regions in the pace and strategy of privatization. He concludes that the weakness of the central government led it to make compromises that enabled local elites to retain effective control over enterprises in their regions. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P31, L16, L20.     

Comparison of Élite Groups in Tatarstan,Sakha, Magadan,and Orenburg

A distinguished Russian professor of sociology examines political, economic, and intellectual élites in two oblasts and two republics of the Russian Federation. Findings are based on documentary research as well as 260 interviews: 160 formal and 100 informal. The author examines the structure of élites, their orientations and characteristics, coalitions and cooperation among them, the construction of regional identities, and the prospects for élite transformation. The article compares and contrasts republics and oblasts and considers how élites in each type of region affect prospects for political change.     

Gubernatorial Politics in Sverdlovsk Oblast'

A Russian political scientist provides a detailed examination of politics in the Sverdlovsk oblast' of the Russian Federation. Focus includes Governor Eduard Rossel's efforts to increase the power of regions vis-à-vis Moscow, and Rossel's relations with the region's political and economic elites as well as with neighboring regional leaders. Analysis covers the politics of institutional reform, economic constraints, the politics of regional identity – including organized attempts to construct a Ural identity independent of an all-Russian identity – public attitudes, social protest, opposition politics, and clientelism.     

论俄罗斯混合市场经济模式的形成及特点

鉴于学术界对于俄罗斯经济发展模式存在不同观点,本文首先分析了俄罗斯从建立自由主义市场经济的政策取向到混合市场经济模式的转变过程,然后分析了俄罗斯混合市场经济模式的突出特征.在此基础上,文章对俄罗斯混合市场经济模式作出评价.最后得出结论,认为以强国富民为目标的混合市场经济模式是俄罗斯经济取得新发展的正确途径,进一步兴利除弊是保持经济增长速度和实现经济多样发展的重要前提.     

从2018年地方选举看俄罗斯左翼政党发展态势

俄罗斯地方选举的结果往往能够反映出俄罗斯的政治社会形势、中央地方关系的变化情况以及精英的流动和发展状况,对国家杜马选举甚至俄罗斯总统选举都有一定的影响。2018年俄地方选举呈现出不同以往的特点,普京支持的“统一俄罗斯”党不仅失去多个地区的领导权,在地区立法机构的席位也大幅缩水。相比之下,俄罗斯联邦共产党则取得了不错的竞选成绩,在所有参选地区的得票率都有所提升,大幅提高了在地区立法机构中的席位占比。但是由于政治当局的打压、左翼政党内部的分裂和俄罗斯联邦共产党自身的发展局限,俄罗斯左翼政党在短期内依然无法与强大的政权党抗衡。不断进行理论创新、加强党的自身建设、联合其他左翼政党和爱国力量,才是俄罗斯左翼政党复兴的长远之计。     

A Personal Eulogy

Two specialists on Russian society and politics analyze how Russians view human rights and the conflict in Chechnya, as well as factors shaping views on these issues within Russia, based on a survey conducted in October 2001. The authors discuss how their results diverge from the findings of other studies of Russian public opinion on issues relating to democracy, consider several explanations for the patterns they observe, and propose some appropriate policy measures.     

Judicial alignment and criminal justice: evidence from Russian courts

This paper investigates the effect of informal ties between judges (as represented by regional court chairpersons) and prosecutors on the repressive implementation of criminal justice in Russia in the area of fraud convictions. The authors utilize criminal law statistics of Russian regional courts for 2006–2010 to determine the alignment between chairpersons and prosecutors by measuring the length of their mutual career paths. The informal ties have a strong impact on trial outcome, which, however, changes over time. During periods of high bureaucratic risks and uncertainty, regions with a higher extent of informal ties between judges and prosecutors exhibit more repressive law enforcement. If external risks decrease, informal coalitions seem to increase the independence of the courts, insulating them from bureaucratic pressures and limiting their repressiveness.     

Coal Miners and the Transformation of the USSR

A specialist on Russian local and regional government examines relations among levels of political authority within Tyumen' Oblast'. Russian-language publications and on-site interviews constitute the base of evidence. Issues examined include challenges to the region posed by dissolution of the USSR, legal and political conflicts among levels of government, relations with federal authorities in Moscow, the role of oil companies in the region, and the impact of changes introduced under President Putin.     

21世纪的中国与俄罗斯:地区挑战与机遇—“瓦尔代”国际辩论俱乐部俄中分组讨论提纲

关于亚太地区当前格局问题,中俄双方学者均认为美国与欧洲先后陷入危机,未来5至8年将呈现收缩态势,在全球尤其是亚太地区的影响力全面衰落。俄方学者认为,在欧美因为经济危机陷入衰退的同时,以中国为代表的亚洲经济体却保持了蒸蒸日上的增长势头,国际经济中心已经向亚太地区转移,国际政治中心也将会向亚太地区转移。中方学者则认为,美国处于相对衰落的过程,而中国、俄罗斯、印度等新兴大国同时崛起,参与全球治理进程,国际权力出现扁平化,竞争的中心向亚太地区加速转移。在亚洲高速发展的现实情况下,美国主导的军事同盟体系已不适应亚洲经济一体化的进程。俄方认为,2011年,美国重返亚洲,利用中国与周边国家的领土争端,加强在本地区的军事同盟体系,大有围堵中国之势。俄罗斯融入亚太需要和平的地区形势,建议在中、俄、美之间建立三边安全机制,为本地区中小国家提供安全保障。中方认为,在新的地区形势下,应当建立与之相适应的地区政治、经济、安全秩序,欢迎并愿意协助俄罗斯在亚洲发挥积极的、建设性的作用。但是新的地区秩序应当是开放性的、包容性的,与亚洲国家多样性相适应的。在积极推动地区经济发展的基础上,逐步推进政治、安全议程。俄方学者认为,欧洲深陷金融危机,短期内不能解决,俄罗斯经济发展重心将向亚太地区转移,着力开发远东和西伯利亚地区,欢迎美国、欧洲、中国等世界各国和地区参与。中方认为,远东西伯利亚地区蕴藏着丰富的资源,并且与中国经济互补性较高,在两国政府的主导下,已经进行了一些合作。随着俄罗斯"东进"战略的逐步明确,双方可以在项目开发、投资等方面进行研究,发挥双方比较优势,深入合作。在中亚地区,美国撤出后的阿富汗将成为本地区新的安全威胁,加上原有的三股势力,中亚地区的安全形势令人担忧。俄方认为,应当发挥上海合作组织安全合作的优势,密切关注阿富汗形势,加强与印度等周边国家的合作。中方学者认为,应当发挥上合组织在安全方面的积极作用,但是解决中亚问题的根本,还在于通过经济合作使中亚国家走出贫困,从而实现长治久安。因此,应当积极推动上合组织框架下的经济合作进程,与欧亚联盟等本地区其他组织加强沟通与合作。     

Agricultural policy in Russia and WTO accession

This article analyzes the implications of World Trade Organization (WTO) accession for Russian agricultural policy. Using Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data on producer support from 2010, we identify two major characteristics of Russian agricultural and trade policy (a) reliance on sizeable differences between world and domestic prices to generate two-thirds of agricultural producer support and (b) highly distortionary budget support. We then consider whether the disciplines introduced by WTO accession will constrain or even roll back these distortionary policies, thereby substantially changing the nature of agricultural policies in Russia. Using data from OECD-FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) and Russian Ministry of Agriculture projections, we conclude that the structure of OECD-type producer support in 2020 will be very similar to its current state. Market price support will continue to dominate the Producer Support Estimate, and the projected Current Total Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS) will approach the WTO Bound Total AMS (the ceiling on production-distorting support) only in 2018. For the reasons above, we conclude that although WTO accession provides opportunities for important changes in Russian sanitary, phytosanitary, food safety, trade, and tariff policies, membership is not a guarantee of systemic change. In fact, a serious look at Russian WTO commitments makes a minimum-change scenario quite possible and even likely.     

Russia and South Ossetia: conferring statehood or creeping annexation?

Abstract

Events in Ukraine have distracted international attention from the ongoing Russian involvement in the unresolved conflicts of the South Caucasus. This article explores the intensification of relations between South Ossetia and Moscow, focusing on the extent to which South Ossetia exists as a functioning state entity. Are the authorities in Tskhinvali able to provide vital services such as defence and control over ‘state’ borders and territory without Russian involvement? What has been happening in South Ossetia is important, despite being overshadowed by events in Ukraine, as it is indicative of what may well occur in eastern Ukraine: a simmering separatist conflict that is far more than a domestic territorial dispute, with both regional and international implications.