俄罗斯地区立法机关选举研究

2011年杜马选举后俄罗斯爆发了大规模的民众抗议。舞弊问题,特别是对于俄罗斯政治缺乏竞争的不满,是民众抗议的主要动因。对俄罗斯地区选举改革的分析,可以发现俄罗斯地区选举制度和政党制度,对于"政权党"存在一定的制度性扶持,这是政治竞争缺乏的重要原因之一。普京在第二任期开始了俄罗斯地区选举改革,目标是加强政党,尤其是联邦型政党在地区政治中的作用,降低地区政治精英的影响,维护联邦的统一和稳定。改革后,一方面政党作用得到大幅提升,国家稳定得到巩固;另一方面,地区选举制度从客观上对于"政权党"更为有利。比例代表制在地区选举中的广泛使用,以及其所涉及的选举名单形式、选举保证金、选举签名、门槛线和席位分配方法等各方面因素,在整个选举过程中为政权党提供了一定的制度性保障。     

Bye-Bye Bipolarism: The 2015 Regional Elections and the New Shape of Regional Party Systems in Italy

In May 2015, 19 million Italians were called to renew the legislative assemblies and presidencies of seven regions, thus concluding an electoral cycle begun in February 2013 that involved all the 15 ordinary statute regions. Beyond their immediate relevance – of the 15 incumbent presidents only three were confirmed in office – these elections represented a turning point for regional party systems, paralleling the earthquake of the 2013 general elections. The ‘fragmented bipolarism’ characterising elections in Italy at the two levels since the mid-1990s, has been replaced by a multipolar competition, as a consequence of the consolidating presence of the Movimento 5 Stelle and the internal divisions of the centre-right coalition. At the same time, fragmentation of regional councils has remained high. The evolution of regional party systems and patterns of competition are analysed in this paper, taking into account the electoral offer, turnout and results in the majoritarian and proportional arenas of the 15 ordinary statute regions.     

Party,Regional and Linguistic Proportionality Under Majoritarian Rules: Swiss Federal Council Elections

The elections to the Swiss Federal Council in December 2015 re‐established a system of party‐centred concordance, cherished in consociational theory, consisting of two representatives of the Swiss People's Party, two Radicals, two Social Democrats and one Christian Democrat. At the same time, the government has rarely been as unbalanced in terms of the representation of Switzerland's languages and regions. The article analyses the concept of concordance with regard to both aspects of governmental inclusiveness. It also highlights the crucial role of electoral rules used in governmental elections. It argues that they resemble the Alternative Vote, a majoritarian electoral system that has been criticized in consociational theory but prescribed by the rival, centripetalist approach to power sharing.     

Russia's oil and gas export to Northeast Asia

Russia has been deprived of the chance of becoming a major oil and gas supply source for the Northeast Asian region due to the combination of several factors, in particular by the absence of pipeline infrastructure in the area. Moscow made its first significant decision to construct an energy transportation infrastructure development by 2008, even though it is only the first stage of the 4,000 km long distance pipeline. If the development is made as planned, the Northeast Asian region is set to witness a massive crude oil flow from East Siberia and a sizable LNG export from the Sakhalin Islands before the end of this decade. The Moscow authority is supposed to make a final decision on the long distance natural gas pipeline before the end of 2005. If timing of the supply of pipeline gas to Bohai Bay areas is missed and consequently a massive LNG supply is arranged for North China, a significant delay of pipeline gas introduction to the Northeast Asian region will be inevitable and the price may have to be borne by the region's LNG consumers.     

Podemos and Ciudadanos Shake up the Spanish Party System: The 2015 Local and Regional Elections

With a very high unemployment rate but at the first stage of a timid economic recovery, Spain held regional and local elections in May 2015. The election results showed the fall of traditional parties and the emergence of new forces and citizens’ platforms, which increased the fragmentation of the party system. The PP (Partido Popular – Popular Party) continued to be the most voted-for party but post-election agreements brought the left to power in eight of the 14 regions that held elections, ending four years of conservative general dominance. After commenting on the context, the campaign and the results of the elections, this article explores the main characteristics of the new party competition and examines the profile of those voting for new political alternatives.     

Russia's Policy Towards OPEC

Russia and OPEC are major oil producers. Considering the growing energy demand for the global economy, both parties are consistently increasing their exports of hydrocarbons and developing new supply capacities. Meanwhile, both parties have a mutual interest in creating a stable market by cooperating. However, the likelihood of Russian cooperation with OPEC is largely a function of oil prices and the political relations between Russia and OPEC countries. The following article deals with the relations between Russia and OPEC since the collapse of the USSR to the economic crisis in 2008. The author examines the political, cultural and economic conflicts between the two parties and their different attitudes toward the oil market in order to assess their chance to fully cooperate in the long term.     

Privatization in Russia's Regions

An American specialist on Russian and post-Soviet politics examines regional variations in the privatization of both large and small industrial enterprises in Russia during 1992-1994. Using regional statistical data, both published and unpublished, interviews with actors and documentary materials from the Russian press, the author finds substantial differences among regions in the pace and strategy of privatization. He concludes that the weakness of the central government led it to make compromises that enabled local elites to retain effective control over enterprises in their regions. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P31, L16, L20.     

Russia's Forced-Choice Presidential Election

Have there been changes in political institutions, parties, leaders, and regional political orientations in Ukraine after the "Orange Revolution"? If so, are the changes revolutionary or evolutionary? Most previous studies refer to the 2004 presidential elections and mass protest actions as a revolution. To test this claim, this article analyzes political changes in Ukraine. Survey data are used to compare changes in pro-Russian and pro-Western orientation, support for major parties in the 2002, 2006, and 2007 parliamentary elections, and support for leading presidential candidates since the 2004 presidential elections. The implications of these changes for development of democracy in Ukraine are also considered.     

俄罗斯政治思想的新变化——2009年俄罗斯政治形势分析

2009年俄罗斯的政局保持稳定,但政治体系现代化的改革成效不大。金融危机成为影响俄罗斯政治形势的刺激性因素。梅德韦杰夫和普京在政治思想上的差异开始显现。这种差异主要体现在政治哲学观与历史观的不同上。思想观念的不同可能导致政治路线之争。由于普京依然居于权力中心,俄罗斯政局的发展不会完全按照梅德韦杰夫的路线发展。     

俄罗斯对世界石油体系的挑战及其局限

俄罗斯作为一个强势的油气生产大国,既有意愿也有一定的能力对当前世界石油体系的游戏规则提出挑战。但是经过近年来油价波动、金融和经济危机等变故的冲击,俄罗斯挑战能力的局限性充分暴露出来,挑战以全面收缩而暂告一段落。俄罗斯挑战乏力的根源在于自身权力的缺陷和外部因素的结构性制约。俄罗斯能否彻底改变石油体系的权力结构和规则具有很大的不确定性。     

俄罗斯的对外政策与中国

俄罗斯对外政策的制定与中俄关系的发展是中俄两国政界、学界都非常关注的问题。目前,普京政府奉行一种积极、独立、全方位、实用的对外政策。作为一种新型的,摆脱了意识形态束缚的战略协作关系,《中俄睦邻友好合作条约》将两国世代友好,永不为敌的思想,以法律形式固定下来。目前的中俄关系处于300年来最好的历史时期。     

民主选举与社会分裂——东亚民主转型国家与地区的政治与政局

东亚民主转型国家和地区发生的社会分裂与其实行的民主制度之间存在较强的关联性。在经济发展不平衡、贫富差距大、民族国家意识淡泊及选举文化有欠成熟的情况下,参与选举的政治势力和社会群体倾向于将投票及相关活动视为扩大自身利益和削弱对方力量的机会,导致不同政治势力和社会群体之间的对立和冲突超出可控范围。