German Voters in Times of Crisis: The Impact of Perceptions and Economic Context on Electoral Behaviour

This paper analyses the connection between economic context, voters’ individual assessment of the economy, and party identification, taking the German national elections of 2009 as an example. Based on the results of multinomial and multilevel regression models, the article shows that partisanship moderates how the economy affects the vote. In cases of increasing unemployment in the constituency, voters are less likely to vote for the Social Democrats instead of the CDU and the opposition. This effect is particularly strong amongst voters who report that they identify with the Social Democrats. Regarding the effect of voters’ assessment of the national economy, the results are different. In this case, a better evaluation of the regional economy increases the probability to vote for right-wing parties – notably amongst voters without partisanship. These findings suggest that the moderating effect of partisanship on the economy’s impact on voting behaviour should not be overestimated. What is more, this analysis implies that research on economic voting should always account for both contextual factors and voters’ personal assessment of the economy, as these measures reveal different dimensions of economic voting.     

Venezuela's Contemporary Political Crisis in Historical Context

Since the election of Hugo Chávez Frías to the Venezuelan presidency in 1998 on a platform of 'revolutionary' change, the country has been wracked by political turmoil and violence between pro- and anti-government groups. While the political crisis has been reported and portrayed as a new phenomenon that has emerged as a result of Chávez's policy programme and style of government, this article argues that the conflict has deep historical roots and that it has been shaped by the legacy of political organisation in the pre-Chávez period.     

Crisis in the Philippines Left: Implications for the Asia Pacific

The struggles of poor communities to negotiate development processes have been documented increasingly in recent years. However, recognition of the agency of the poor should not preclude attention to patterns of oppression that may be intensifying in the face of top-down development processes imposed by increasingly well co-ordinated elites. Examination of patterns of violence in border areas across the Greater Mekong Sub-region suggests that integration facilitates the collusion of state actors in the dispossession of the poor in a manner that is deleterious to ethnic minorities, internal migrants and other vulnerable populations. National political processes are not offering mechanisms by which such populations can seek to contest this trend.     

代前言

2011年3月19日西方国家对利比亚进行军事打击以来,利比亚危机已经持续了数月,引发了国内外学术界的广泛关注和讨论。有鉴于此,中国欧洲学会欧洲政治研究会与《欧洲研究》编辑部联手推出一组笔谈,约请国内学者从美国、法国、德国等大国的态度与行动,欧盟、北约的战略考量等角度分析利比亚危机的相关问题,并从国际关系、国际法、中国外交等多种视角进行了讨论,以期推动学界对利比亚危机的深入思考和广泛讨论,探索中国学术界回应国际热点问题的新模式。     

Crisis,Routine, Consolidation: The Politics of the Mediterranean Migration Crisis

The current ‘migration crisis’ is framed as a moment of reckoning in the EU’s dealings with its Mediterranean neighbourhood. Yet to what extent is crisis the most useful tool to account for migration and European border control practices in the current context? An exclusive focus on crisis, we argue, is misleading. To a large extent, the current crisis management builds on pre-existing practices and enables their consolidation. For us this is an invitation to discuss the relation between crisis, routine and consolidation in Euro-Mediterranean migration policies and practices. This intervention shows how ‘crises’ are spatio-temporally limited and used to further pre-existing migration control practices and techniques of governing. As such we interrogate what it means to talk of crisis versus routine in the field of Mediterranean security practices.     

The Russian Election of 1993: Public Opinion and the Transition Experience

Two British specialists on Russia report the results of a nationwide survey of 2,030 Russian adults, randomly chosen from each of 50 provinces of the Russian Federation. A survey instrument containing 300 questions was administered in face-to-face interviews during summer 1993, and explored attitudes toward the market, privatization, social order, minority rights, and nationalism. Testing three alternative explanations for the results of the December 1993 Russian elections, the authors present a nuanced argument that the Russian public has been drawing negative lessons about market democracy from the transition itself, as experienced since January 1992. A higher voter turnout, they find, would have augmented the strength of anti-government parties and candidates. Journal of Economic literature, Classification Numbers: H19, P29     

The Asian Economic Crisis and Capitalist Restructuring: Two Approaches

ABSTRACT

The global capitalist system is at a particular historical juncture with a dilution of the capitalist core away from Western (and Japanese) centers of accumulation to China and India, among other countries. What is the nature of capitalism in these countries? Are China and India going along the same development trajectories that advanced capitalist countries followed earlier? Is their accumulation model the same as that of the OECD economies or is accumulation different under late capitalism? The author argues that capitalism in India and China is “compressed,” meaning that the phases of capitalism do not follow one another in sequential order. Instead, some phases, such as primitive accumulation, may be delayed or be experienced at the same time as advanced accumulation under the corporate sector, thereby producing a mode of development that does not generate widespread employment. The author contends that capitalism in India and China is compressed and he demonstrates empirically that primitive accumulation, petty commodity producing sectors, and mature capitalism in late-industrializing countries reinforce each other, creating precarious forms of employment in the process.     

The Hamburg election of 19 September 1993

The transformation of Polish–German relations since the end of the Cold War has been a success story. The two countries are linked by a community of interests founded on common values and goals. Although Germany, in its policies towards Central and Eastern Europe, occasionally attaches too much weight to trying to mollify Russia, the united Germany has supported the Eastern enlargement of the EU and, ultimately, of the NATO. It genuinely wants ‘Western’ neighbours to its east. German foreign policy will continue to be characterised by continuity, with a strong emphasis on multilateralism. There is a danger, however, that Germany's European engagement and support for closer integration will be weakened by its preoccupation with its domestic economic and social problems.     

东盟面临的危机与挑战

本文探讨了东南亚国家联盟作为一个组织机构在这次亚洲金融危机中所起的作用。从各个国家来看 ,成员国们采取各种措施加强对银行的管理 ,加大金融交易的透明度 ,鼓励竞争 ;从双边关系来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们对受影响最严重的国家 ,尤其是对印度尼西亚进行了援助 ;从国际方面来看 ,东南亚国家联盟成员国们共同呼吁发达国家继续开放市场 ,在重新谈判债务问题时更灵活些 ,在实施改革计划时要注意保护贫穷阶层的人士。本文追踪了在一系列会议上东南亚联盟的初衷 ,但是最后得出结论认为现有的经济合作项目有待进一步扩大合作领域 ,进一步加强责任感。