Rivaling the PRI: The Image Management of Vicente Fox and the Use of Public Opinion Polling in the 2000 Mexican Election

This research examines the data from private polls conducted during Vicente Fox's presidential campaign through the lenses of the "modernization" of campaigning, the creation of image in the modern Mexican presidency, and the survey tools used by the campaign to achieve a historic presidential victory in 2000. Fox's campaign team used polling to determine the potential of the Mexican public to be persuaded by an opposition candidate, to provide a continuous update on how the campaign strategy was working, to assist in solidifying Fox's image and message of change (rather than promoting his policy agenda), and to target demographic groups that were perceived to be important electoral partners. These findings suggest that public opinion polling is a useful tool in Mexico to combat longstanding corporatist structures used to favor the PRI. Presidential campaigns in Mexico are beginning to resemble modern campaigns in other mature democracies in their use of private polling data; future Mexican campaigns will become more image- and personality-based.     

2008年俄罗斯总统选举与中俄关系

即将于2008年举行的俄罗斯总统选举广受世界各国关注.俄国内政治生态将对此次总统选举产生直接影响.无论是就民意的偏好、政党格局的出新、精英层的嬗变等各个方面来看,由普京总统所主导的2008年总统大选的整个程序正在上述各要素的互动中有条不紊地向前推进.2008年选举还对俄政治格局的继续演进和俄西方关系的可能变化具有举足轻重的作用.中俄关系将有望保持其延续性和稳定性,出现有利局面,但不意味着中俄关系的进一步发展会是一个不需要任何努力的自然过程.     

后苏联时期的俄罗斯政治领袖

政治领袖是苏联和俄罗斯政治体系中的关键组成部分,在后苏联时代的俄罗斯政治生活中占有特别重要的地位。俄罗斯政治文化一直偏爱强势而有个性的政治领袖,从1917年以来的苏联领袖大多都秉持了这一特点。改革派领导人戈尔巴乔夫由于自己的优柔寡断而丧失了对于改革乃至国家的控制,而与其个人风格和成长经历迥异的叶利钦经历了一系列复杂的政治斗争,最终成为了新生的俄罗斯联邦的领袖。他推动俄罗斯进行了激进的市场化改革,希望使俄罗斯走上以市场经济为特征的"文明之路",但由于复杂的国际国内环境以及政策方面的失误,这一尝试最终以失败而告终。虽然他是俄罗斯第一任民选总统,但叶利钦自相矛盾的执政风格、不稳定的心理状态和诸多生活上的不良习惯都令人诟病,他虽然赢得了竞选连任,但由于身体原因和杜马掣肘,很难有所作为。在经历了复杂的甄选之后,他选择了普京作为自己的接班人,并且帮助普京顺利当选。有克格勃背景的普京是一位具有开拓精神和无比坚韧的性格的领导人。在接任总理之后,很快凭借自己的超群才能,解决了车臣问题,并且有效提高了社会福利,从而迅速提高了自己的威望,以绝对优势当选总统。执政之后,普京很快推动了俄罗斯政治制度新的"转型",他通过除了暴力之外的一切手段强化国家权力,打击"寡头",取消地方选举,限制独立媒体,通过"西罗维基"掌控权力,最终使整个政权集中于自己的手中,形成了被称为"可控民主"或"主权民主"的普京体制。在八年任期结束后,普京拒绝了第三个总统任期,而选择了一项略显复杂的政治安排。将总统职务交给自己的亲信梅德韦杰夫,本人则以总理和统一俄罗斯党主席的身份继续参政,形成了一种特殊的"双头制"政权,直到2012年重返克里姆林宫。随着时代的变迁,俄罗斯正处于发展的十字路口。普京的重新执政对于俄罗斯未来的改革可能将会是一个积极的因素,因为他拥有足够的权力推动改革的进行。虽然面对诸多不确定的挑战,但仍然有成功的机会。     

The Revolution and its Discontents: Grenadian Newspapers and Attempts to Shape Public Opinion during Political Transition

Abstract

What role did the newspaper play in attempting to influence public opinion in the early stages of the Grenada Revolution and what are the terms in which printed discourses on the revolution were conceptualised? The Grenada Revolution was a discursive political process where branding and narration were necessary elements in securing the revolution’s authority and legitimacy. This paper argues that Cuba functioned as a metonym through which the revolution was translated in Grenadian periodicals. Even before the coup of 13 March 1979 Grenadian media represented the New Jewel Movement—the revolutionary party—as Cuban-inspired and socialist. In order to examine how socialism in general, and the socialist character of the People’s Revolutionary Government (PRG) in particular, was narrated, a comparison is staged between two newspapers—the government-run Free West Indian and the privately owned The Torchlight. Competing discourses on Cuban communism are analysed for the ways in which they stood-in for the Grenadian people’s hopes, aspirations and anxieties in the midst of radical political change. Issues including race, gender equality, property ownership, freedom of religious practice and freedom of travel are examined in relation to capitalism and socialism, and the PRG’s efforts to maintain narrative authority of the revolution.     

今日俄罗斯哲学与俄罗斯的社会变革

热爱哲学思维是俄罗斯民族的特点之一,俄罗斯哲学也有着辉煌的历史。但是,20世纪90年代以来,急剧的社会变革使俄罗斯哲学处于十分尴尬的境地,当前俄罗斯哲学正处于适应这种变革的全面转型过程。     

社会转型时期俄罗斯民族主义产生的根源

俄罗斯在社会转型过程中爆发的民族主义浪潮有其深刻的民族思想、社会背景、民族性格和社会基础。“莫斯科即第三罗马”观念、“斯拉夫主义”和“欧亚主义”是其产生的思想渊源;解体造成的国力衰退和来自西方的压力是引爆的直接导火线;俄罗斯民族性格中的两重性、矛盾性和非理性的特征是它的民族性格根源;“新俄罗斯人”、知识分子、军人和军工集团是它的社会基础。     

Citizen Activism in the Russian Transition

Two American specialists on Russia report the results of two nationwide surveys conducted in that country in 1992 (N = 1,393) and 1993 (N = 1,598). Focus was on rates and types of political activism and their correlation with attitudes toward economic and political reform. Conclusions are that different types of political activism attract different constituencies. People with higher income and occupational status participate in a wide range of activities but are significantly less likely than others to vote. Those with less to gain from the transition are more likely to vote—perhaps a legacy of communism—but take part less in activities which demand high levels of commitment and resources. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: P29, Jl8.     

Democratic Values and Public Opinion Toward Immigrants: The Case of Ecuador

Scholars of support for democracy traditionally have been concerned with its causes, with the assumption that higher citizen support for democratic values will enhance democracy's chances of survival in a country. Beyond this fundamental proposition, however, the consequences of varying levels of support for democratic values remain largely unexplored. This article examines the relationship between support for democratic values and views toward immigration in Latin America, a region that is experiencing an unprecedented increase in the movement of people across borders. Through an analysis of Ecuadorian attitudes toward Colombian immigrants, this study finds strong evidence for the argument that support for democratic values has potential benefits not only for democratic sustainability in the region, but also for the reduction of social conflict and distrust that can stem from increasing immigration in a volatile economic context.     

The Impact of External Factors on Regime Transition: Lessons from the Russian Regions

While many studies have examined the external dimensions of democratization, the role of external anti-democratic factors remains unaddressed. Using an original dataset to analyze the presence and impact of external anti-democratic factors, this article aims to untangle the international dimensions of regime transition by singling out foreign trade. International post-Soviet trade links' impact on subnational political regimes in Russia is analyzed. Trade links between post-Soviet states and their regions are longstanding, dating back to the Soviet or even the tsarist period. The authors hypothesize that this variable was an important factor in regime transition in Russia's regions. The findings have wider implications for area studies and theoretical studies of democratization and regime transition.     

Public Opinion on Privatization: Republic Differences

An American Sovietologist and two Soviet social scientists summarize the results of a public opinion survey on privatization carried out by Goskomstat SSSR. The survey was conducted in the fall of 1990. The analysis of data made in 1991 included all union republics and the Baltics. Specific survey questions were designed to test urban residents' attitudes toward private ownership of business, sales of state enterprises to individuals, hiring by private business, and stock ownership in private enterprises. Included in the paper are correlations of attitudes toward specific issues suggesting a deeper, more central mindset toward privatization. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P20, P12.     

俄罗斯国防工业体转型路径及效用分析

俄罗斯国防工业体从前苏联时期的斯大林模式向市场导向的转型,经历了漫长而艰辛的历程.尤其是20世纪90年代的军转民实践,充满了曲折和困难,短期内削弱了其经济实力.但俄罗斯也逐渐明确了国防工业体进一步转型的方向,为推动其经济结构的进一步调整以及经济的持续发展奠定了基础.本文着重从理论上分析俄罗斯国防工业体转型的路径,并深入探讨其对经济发展的巨大影响.     

后金融危机时代俄罗斯经济转型评估

俄罗斯20年的经济转型使该国经济实现了明显的增长。但在金融危机中暴露出的问题,也显示俄罗斯经济存在着内在的结构性问题。这些内在结构性问题将长期影响俄罗斯的经济可持续增长与财政预算的安全,后金融危机时代俄罗斯经济最大的挑战就是结构改革。     

大国关系及美国大选对全球局势的影响:俄罗斯智库与媒体看法

俄罗斯智库与媒体肯定当前世界秩序处于重大变革时期,特朗普外交政策以及新冠肺炎疫情都给世界带来了巨大改变,同时俄罗斯自身还面临着经济社会发展和周边国家关系等问题,需要以“新思维”来看待和解决。不过,俄罗斯官方不完全认可“新冷战”说法。俄罗斯智库与媒体看到,至少在中短期内,中美矛盾将是世界主要矛盾,俄罗斯可以利用中美竞争谋求发展。如果面临两极格局必须做出选择,对俄罗斯而言更优选择是与中国结盟。从美国民主党对俄罗斯的传统政策以及拜登对普京及俄罗斯的态度看,美国大选结果对俄罗斯不是很有利,但无论特朗普当选还是拜登当选,美国外交政策的总体方向都不会有原则性改变。对于世界格局,俄罗斯智库判断有多种发展趋向,俄力主多极世界,并将努力推动这一局面的形成。     

Public Opinion, Privatisation and the Electoral Politics of Telstra

During the 1996 election campaign, the Liberal-National Party Coalition pledged that if elected it would partly privatise Telstra. The pledge was a central part of its campaign pitch. This paper argues that the proposal came at a time when the tide of public opinion had moved against privatisation; it shows how the Opposition used poll data both to present its own proposal in the most favourable light and to portray the difference between its position and that of Labor Government's as minimal; and, using the surveys commissioned by both sides, it evaluates the success of this strategy. More generally, it suggests that in a "post-ideological" age, party ideology remains important. And it illustrates how polls can be used by parties not just to establish what the majority thinks but to galvanise support, neutralise opposition and convert those who harbour doubts.     

Public Opinion in Japan and the Nationalization of the Senkaku Islands

This article examines the role of public opinion in Japan in directly influencing the Japanese government’s decision to nationalize the Senkaku Islands in 2012. The public mood in Japan is becoming increasingly nationalistic. Although this does not immediately mean the return of militarism in the country, such a mood is especially evident with respect to China. The nationalization of the Islands took place within this nationalistic domestic environment. In the case of the nationalization, public opinion was channeled most notably through Tokyo Governor Ishihara. His plan to purchase the Islands and strong public support for his plan eventually forced the central government’s intervention. Prime Minister Noda simply could not force Ishihara to give up his plan because going against such a popular politician who was enjoying strong public support would almost certainly have caused a strong public backlash and resulted in electoral punishment. On the other hand, Noda was also concerned that Tokyo’s successful acquisition of the Islands would lead to severe criticism of his government for not properly protecting Japan’s territorial integrity. There was also a more serious concern that Ishihara’s control of the Islands might lead to a change of the status quo and thus dangerously provoke China. Therefore, Noda had no choice but to intervene and nationalize the Islands. If he was also seeking to mobilize public opinion in his favor, he was not entirely successful.     

Public Opinion Toward the European Union in Georgia

Georgia's association with the EU has become closer in recent years through foreign policy instruments including the European Neighborhood Policy, the Eastern Partnership, and the Black Sea Synergy. Against the background of this increasing formal cooperation, public opinion toward the European Union in Georgia is examined on the basis of a nationally representative survey conducted in 2009. Regression modeling is used to relate attitudes toward the EU to explanatory factors including support for continued European integration, expectations of benefits from Europeanization, political beliefs, perceptions of national security and territorial integrity, and attitudes toward Russia.     

疫情危机下社会大众意见治理反思

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发生以来,社会舆论纷繁复杂,在一定程度上影响了疫情防控工作的进行。同时,社会大众意见趋于分裂,将对我国治理体系和治理能力构成较大挑战。疫情危机下,社会意见治理应从三个方面入手,即保障公民言论自由,规范言论行为,壮大高扬主流思想舆论。在保障言论自由、区别对待不同意见、社会合力治理原则指导下,形成规范社会言论行为以进行“治”、壮大抗疫主流思想舆论以进行“理”的社会意见治理思路,以期较为客观全面地缓解社会疫情意见压力,在社会舆论场域弘扬主旋律,为打赢疫情防控阻击战提供良好的舆论环境,减少舆情次生危害。     

Transition to Upper Secondary School: an Estonian Experience

This is a study of the transition to upper secondary education, an area largely ignored by international educational research. In particular, the study focuses on the transition from compulsory basic education to an academic general upper secondary education in Estonia. This study involves a national survey of school principals as well as case studies. The mixed methods analyses show that a number of barriers can be identified that may have an adverse impact on students’ adjustment to a new learning environment, potentially affecting their educational outcomes and future life-chances. The study places the findings in the context of broader societal processes that have taken place during the last decade in the Baltic countries in general, including Estonia.     

俄罗斯经济转轨的路径选择与转型性经济危机

俄罗斯经济转型问题研究是一个宏大的学术问题。视角不同,逻辑路线和问题设定将有很大差别。本文主要从制度视角展开对俄罗斯经济转型的路径选择和绩效特征进行概括性分析和描述。分析认为,俄罗斯经济转轨的路径选择是一系列因素综合作用的结果;俄罗斯转型性经济危机是转轨的政策设计以及转轨中的公共选择力量博弈的结果。