What explains regional variation in election fraud? Evidence from Russia: a research note

The December 2011 legislative election was among the most fraudulent national elections in Russia since the communist period. The fraud, however, was not evenly spread across the country. Precinct-level election returns from the 83 regions of the Russian Federation suggest that the level of fraud ranged from minimal or small in some regions to extreme in some others, with moderate to high fraud levels in many regions in between. We argue that in an electoral authoritarian context like Russia, regional variation in fraud can be explained by differences in (a) the perceived need by regional authorities to signal loyalty to the center by “delivering” desired election results; (b) the capacity of regional authorities to organize fraud; and (c) the vulnerability of citizens to political pressure and manipulation. We test the effect of signaling, capacity, and vulnerability on electoral fraud in the 2011 legislative elections with data on the 83 regions of the Russian Federation. We find evidence for all three mechanisms, finding that the tenure of governors in office, United Russia's dominance in regional legislatures, and the ethnic composition of regions are most important for explaining regional variation in electoral fraud.     

Does everyday corruption affect how Russians view their political leadership?

Do Russians’ personal experiences with corruption influence how they evaluate their political leaders and, if so, in what direction? In addressing this question, we focus specifically on small-scale corruption that arises when Russians encounter employees of service provision organizations. We analyze survey data gathered in the summer of 2015 from Russia to trace the links between personal corrupt behavior and political attitudes. We show that participation in everyday corruption lowers a person’s support for the political regime, both as a bivariate relationship and in a multivariate model with controls. Being involved in corrupt transactions reduces support for the regime through two indirect mechanisms: by making the political leadership’s performance seem worse and by heightening perceptions that corruption is widespread among the country’s leaders. We find no support for arguments in the literature that bribery and other forms of bureaucratic corruption help citizens pursue their needs in the face of inefficient state institutions and less developed economies. In Russia, those who frequently encounter corruption are less, not more, happy with the regime.     

Invisible and slow: small business and the “civic-ness” of Russia's regions, 1991–2009

This article suggests that incremental small business development across Russia's regions has been associated with greater “civic-ness” as defined by civil society activism, diversity, and independence of regional press and media, greater transparency in regional and municipal policy deliberations, and greater dispersion of power among governors, mayors, legislatures, and courts. A retrospective analysis of regional variation over the period 1991–2009 allows for a theoretically informed inquiry into the mutuality of property rights, entrepreneurship, norms of citizenship, and liberal democracy. While Russia has become more authoritarian at least since the mid 2000s, the variation in governance across regions remained significant, creating a promising basis for exploring the reasons for this variation. Might democratization viewed comparatively across regions be associated with the extent of liberalization of regional economies and specifically with the extent of small business development?     

Disaggregating Corruption: A Comparison of Participation and Perceptions in Latin America with a Focus on Mexico1

An abundant empirical literature on corruption relying on survey research has emerged since the mid‐1990s. The predominant line of inquiry concerns perceptions of corruption with respect to institutions and processes. Another, separate line of inquiry that has enjoyed less attention concerns reports about individuals’ participation in corruption. These two dimensions of corruption, however, are typically conflated, leading to error and confusion. This article explores the relationship between the two and seeks to differentiate the two. Using data at the country and individual levels, analysis shows how the two may be only weakly related to one another – though causality remains unclear – and respond to distinct sets of determinants and generate distinct outcomes. The analysis underlines the need to specify the findings in the literature: that the causes and consequences of corruption relate more to ‘perceived’ corruption rather than actual corruption.     

Analizando la violencia después del conflicto: el caso de Guatemala en un estudio sub-nacional

This article conceptualizes post-conflict violence by developing its definition, analyzing the factors which can explain it and constructing a typology of eight forms of violence. A central concern of this analysis is that there are different degrees of relation between the violence of conflicts and post-conflict violence given that some forms are fully related, while others are only partially related, and still others are completely independent of armed conflict. While general conditions of peace define post-conflict violence in a weak sense, direct legacies of war define post-conflict violence in a strong sense. The Guatemalan case study allows to identify patterns related to each form of violence at a sub-national level of analysis.     

从2018年地方选举看俄罗斯左翼政党发展态势

俄罗斯地方选举的结果往往能够反映出俄罗斯的政治社会形势、中央地方关系的变化情况以及精英的流动和发展状况,对国家杜马选举甚至俄罗斯总统选举都有一定的影响。2018年俄地方选举呈现出不同以往的特点,普京支持的“统一俄罗斯”党不仅失去多个地区的领导权,在地区立法机构的席位也大幅缩水。相比之下,俄罗斯联邦共产党则取得了不错的竞选成绩,在所有参选地区的得票率都有所提升,大幅提高了在地区立法机构中的席位占比。但是由于政治当局的打压、左翼政党内部的分裂和俄罗斯联邦共产党自身的发展局限,俄罗斯左翼政党在短期内依然无法与强大的政权党抗衡。不断进行理论创新、加强党的自身建设、联合其他左翼政党和爱国力量,才是俄罗斯左翼政党复兴的长远之计。     

俄罗斯战略性主导产业增长方式:能源工业的实证分析

对经济转轨以来俄罗斯能源工业的研究表明,作为战略性主导产业的能源工业在俄罗斯经济转轨中发挥了巨大作用.在俄罗斯转轨危机中,能源工业一直保持了较高的增长速度,并率先走出经济危机.对经济转轨前俄罗斯能源工业的回顾表明,计划经济体制下粗放式开采是制约苏联油气开发后劲的根本原因.对此我们要给予充分客观的认识.本文从设计采收率、劳动生产率等方面论述了经济转轨以来俄罗斯能源工业的粗放式经济发展方式的进一步加强.深入分析了俄罗斯能源工业的粗放式经济发展方式加强的原因.本文指出,经济转轨中俄罗斯能源工业的经济发展方式的转变,关系到整体经济发展方式、经济增长速度和经济结构调整.     

When the baltic sea was a ‘bridge’ for humanitarian action: the league of nations,the red cross and the repatriation of prisoners of war between russia and central Europe, 1920–22

By early 1920, literally hundreds of thousands of prisoners of war still had not been repatriated between Russia and Central Europe. To rectify matters a major humanitarian initiative followed, carried out largely under the auspices of the League of Nations. In a little less than two years, 427,886 people were repatriated. Of these, 406,091 were transported through the Baltic region. This paper highlights the important role of British officials in managing the ambitious project and emphasizes that Estonia, and Narva especially, played a pivotal role facilitating movement between East and West. The success of the venture meant that subsequent humanitarian agreements concluded in the 1920s built on international success rather than failure.     

土库曼天然气出口多元化政策与决策机制分析

土库曼斯坦是欧俄能源战略争夺的焦点.土一直在寻求出口天然气管道的多元化,按照世界价格出售天然气,冲破俄罗斯对土天然气运输的垄断.俄罗斯、中国、欧盟和伊朗因素的综合作用将影响未来土库曼出口决策的走向.     

俄罗斯国防工业体转型路径及效用分析

俄罗斯国防工业体从前苏联时期的斯大林模式向市场导向的转型,经历了漫长而艰辛的历程.尤其是20世纪90年代的军转民实践,充满了曲折和困难,短期内削弱了其经济实力.但俄罗斯也逐渐明确了国防工业体进一步转型的方向,为推动其经济结构的进一步调整以及经济的持续发展奠定了基础.本文着重从理论上分析俄罗斯国防工业体转型的路径,并深入探讨其对经济发展的巨大影响.     

Uzbekistan's ‘spirit’ of self-reliance and the logic of appropriateness: TAPOich and interaction with Russia

The article looks at Uzbekistan's political economy from the perspective of a logic of appropriateness, an approach that takes rules to be the underlying principle of action. The rules are mostly in line with a ‘spirit’ of self-reliance (mustaqillik), which has shaped Tashkent's international engagement since independence. From the perspective of those rules, the article reveals some important features of Russian–Uzbek relations, particularly the difficult and often tense negotiations over the future of the Tashkent Aviation Production Association (TAPOich). Self-reliance and the rules by which it was comprised were not, in the end, conducive to long-term cooperation with Russia in the aviation sector, where collaboration was first and foremost necessary.     

俄罗斯与东亚国家的原油贸易——价格分析的角度

近年,俄罗斯主要通过4条途径向东亚国家输送原油.由于这4条途径的油源地及输送方式不同,因此最终的交易价格也不相同.笔者选取2条途径--用铁路通过满洲里向中国输油和用油轮从萨哈林岛向日本和韩国输油--的贸易价格与俄罗斯对欧洲的离岸价格及中东原油对东亚国家的到岸价格进行比较分析,揭示俄罗斯原油在东亚石油市场的价格现状.本文还对通过东西伯利亚-太平洋管道的出口原油的价格作出预测,指出它的价格将高于目前中俄铁路原油贸易价格和同品质的中东原油价格.