To what extent does civil commitment reduce sexual recidivism? Estimating the selective incapacitation effects in Minnesota

PurposeThis study examines the selective incapacitation effects of civil commitment on sexual reoffending among 105 Minnesota sex offenders who were civilly committed between 2004 and 2006.MethodsThe Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3, a sexual recidivism risk assessment instrument, was used to estimate what the four-year sexual recidivism rate would have been for these offenders had they been released to the community. Integration of Survival with Quality of Life (iSQoL) software was used to extrapolate the survival curves over a 50-year period to develop a lifetime sexual recidivism estimate.ResultsIf the 105 civilly committed sex offenders had been released to the community, an estimated nine percent would have been reconvicted of a new sex offense within four years. Civilly committing these offenders therefore likely reduced the overall four-year sexual recidivism rate by 12 percent. The results further suggest that if these offenders had been released to the community, an estimated 28 percent would be rearrested for another sex offense within their lifetime.ConclusionsTo better align the costs of civil commitment with its public safety benefits, states operating these programs should emphasize the use of intermediate alternatives in the community for a more positive return on investment.     

The positioning of the Prosecution Service in the Netherlands and England and Wales: Lessons from one extreme to another

It has been widely acknowledged that the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS), has since it came into existence, had an unsteady start. Part of the problem relates to its relation and communication with its criminal justice partners, by which we mean courts, police and local and central government. A key issue in this respect appears to be striking a balance between independence and autonomy on the one hand, and close contact and the establishment of `partnership' on the other hand. This paper examine show this balance is struck in the Netherlands, where the Prosecution service (Openbaar Ministerie) is strikingly different in nature, but faces very similar problems. It will be argued that a slightly more relaxed attitude on the CPS's independence might open the door to more fruitful relationship with the criminal justice partners in the field. Several examples concerning this in the Netherlands will be presented and discussed. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Revisiting broken windows theory: A test of the mediation impact of social mechanisms on the disorder–fear relationship

PurposeBroken windows theory predicts that disorder signals a lack of neighborhood control, sparks fear of crime, and sets off a chain reaction ultimately resulting in crime. Support has been found for the disorder–fear link, but the present study argues that this link is actually intended to be indirect—perceived loss of control is what should cause fear.MethodsHierarchical linear models and structural equation models test four hypotheses regarding whether social cohesion and expectations for social control mediate the disorder–fear relationship.ResultsResults support partial mediation.ConclusionResults suggest confirmation of a portion of broken windows theory, in that disorder may inspire fear partially as a result of its detrimental impact on neighborhood cohesion and shared expectations for social control.     

A model of cross-cultural training in the transfer of technology

During the past few decades, many aspects of the transfer of technology from developed to less-developed countries have been examined in detail. Although much of the transfer has been done by transnational corporations (TNCs), one area that has received scant attention in the literature is the cross-cultural training of workers in the host country. A model is developed to show how critical training the worker is to the success of the TNC in the host country. This model emphasizes the need for workers to be trained to understand and use the new (foreign) technology and to understand the culture of the foreign corporation. Thomas S. Barker is a Ph.D. student in higher education with a concentration in management and economics at the University of North Texas.     

Considering specialization/versatility as an unintended collateral consequence of SORN

PurposeEmpirical studies examining specialization/versatility among offenders have long been an area of interest among criminologists. This same focus has only relatively recently been directed toward sex offenders.MethodsUtilize matched random samples of male sex offenders released from prison pre- and post-Sex Offender Registration and Notification (SORN) in the state of New Jersey with eight years of follow-up for measuring recidivism.ResultsVarious specialization thresholds and individualized diversity index (D) scores disaggregated by recidivism offense type (e.g., violent, property, drug, and sex offenses) suggest that these sex offenders were more diverse than specialized. Furthermore, Tobit regression analysis revealed that alcohol problems, being a rapist, being a prior violent offender, and recidivism offense frequency significantly predicted versatility compared with being married and being a prior property offender, which were inversely related to versatility. Finally, sex offenders who were released from prison post-SORN demonstrated a higher level of specialization than sex offenders who were released from prison pre-SORN, yet their tendency toward specialization was almost exclusively a function of drug offenses not sex offenses.ConclusionsSORN policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

What caused fertility variations by settlement in Transylvania at the time of industrialization?

There is an ongoing debate in the literature regarding the causes behind fertility transition. Especially, the relative importance of economic modernization versus cultural adaptation is hotly debated. The paper takes Transylvania, the eastern part of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy as an example. The period of 1880–1910 was a time of fast modernization and industrialization in Transylvania, and it created large territorial differences in economic development. The ethnic and religious composition of the area is versatile; mainly Orthodox Romanians, Catholic Hungarians, and Protestant Germans populated the area.

Data

A cross-sectional database has been created by matching census and vital statistics records for 4112 settlements, for the 1900–1910 period.

Method

OLS regression is used to model crude birth rates by settlement. The factors affecting fertility are modeled using the Easterlin–Crimmins framework.

Results

An explanation placing economic factors (demand and supply) in first place, but accepting the secondary role of innovation factors as barriers to implement fertility regulation, fits the data about Transylvania well.

Discussion

Previous research results regarding Hungary could not show the effect of some socio-economic variables on fertility, due to the high level of aggregation. They favoured cultural explanations, and shown Hungary as an exception to the rules of demographic transition. In contrast, this paper shows that the classic explanatory factors like infant mortality, migration, literacy, and secularization do explain fertility differentials in Transylvania at the turn of the 20th century.     

Cops and cameras: Officer perceptions of the use of body-worn cameras in law enforcement

PurposeThere has been a recent surge in the adoption of and media attention to the use of body-worn cameras in law enforcement. Despite this increase in use and media attention, there is little to no research on officer perceptions of body-worn cameras.MethodsThis study relies on baseline data of officer perceptions toward body-worn cameras collected from surveys administered to Orlando Police officers who are participants in a randomized experiment evaluating the impact of body-worn cameras (Taser AXON Flex) in law enforcement.ResultsResults suggest that police officers are, by and large, open to and supportive of the use of body-worn cameras in policing, they would feel comfortable wearing them, and that they perceive a potential for benefits of body-worn cameras in improving citizen behavior, their own behavior, and the behavior of their fellow officers.ConclusionsOfficers are generally supportive of body-worn cameras, and they hold perceptions that these devices can be beneficial in positively affecting relevant outcomes. Study limitations and implications are also discussed.     

Alicia Alonso's Passion and Exuberance (An Interview with Alicia Alonso)

Abstract

Profiles of Excellence: Achieving Success in the Nonprofit Sector E. B. Knauft, Renee Berger, and Sandra T. Gray San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1991, 197 pages, cloth $22.95

Strategic Management in Non-Profit Organizations: An Administrator's Handbook Robert D. Hay Westport, CT: Quorum Books, Greenwood Press, 1990, 408 pages, cloth $59.95

A Nonprofit Organization Operating Manual: Planning for Survival and Growth Arnold J. Olenick and Philip R. Olenick New York: The Foundation Center, 1991, 484 pages, paper $29.95

Reviewer Brann J. Wry is director of the Performing Arts Management program at New York University.

Exhibiting Cultures: The Poetics and Politics of Museum Display Ivan Karp and Steven D. Lavine, eds. Washington, D.C. and London: Smithsonian Institution Press, 1991, 468 pages, paper $15.95.

Reviewer Danielle Rice is curator of education for the Philadelphia Museum of Art.

Accounting and Budgeting in Public and Nonprofit Organizations C. William Garner San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1991, 272 pages, cloth $29.95

Reviewer Jan Masaoka is staff consultant/trainer for the Support Centers of San Francisco.

Quality Management in the Nonprofit World Larry W. Kennedy San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1991, 194 pages, cloth $22.95

Reviewer Brian Backe is the national marketing director for the Support Centers of America, a national service organization that provides management consulting, training, and information to non-profit organizations across the country.     

Access students and widening participation

This article has been written by Sue Owen, Access to Higher Education tutor and Wendy Toy, mature Law undergraduate and former Access Student. It looks at the issue of widening ‐participation for Access Students in Higher Education, including Law degrees from the perspective of both a tutor and a student.     

Gang involvement and delinquency in a middle school population

The relationship between self-reported gang involvement and self-reported delinquency has been confirmed in a number of studies. However, there have been fewer studies of the relationship between self-reported gang involvement and officially recorded delinquency. This article examines variation in self-reported gang involvement, operationalized as three distinct categories—no involvement, gang involvement but not membership, and gang membership—and its relation to both self-reported and officially recorded delinquency for a population of middle school youths.     

‘Welcome to the rape camp’: Sexual exploitation and the internet in cambodia

Abstract

Summary: This article reports a piece of original research into the links between the trafficking in women and children across the globe and how such trafficking practices have been facilitated by developments in technology and telecommunications. The connections between prostitution in the Mekong Sub-Region, pornography on the Internet, and sex tourism have also been researched, based on the experiences of women and children and the men who exploit them.     

Human but not social capital is better able to distinguish between offending trajectories in a sample of serious adolescent Hispanic offenders

PurposeBoth social and human capital have been identified as important and influential sources for success in many different life domains and research shows that investments in the two forms of capital is negatively associated with crime. Three limitations with prior research include the lack of investigation of the capital/crime relationship (1) among serious adolescent offenders, (2) in a longitudinal manner linking capital to offending over time, and (3) within Hispanic samples.MethodsThe current study uses data from the Pathways to Desistance, a longitudinal study of serious adolescent offenders followed for seven years from mid-adolescence to early adulthood, in order to investigate the extent to which social and human capital are able to distinguish between distinct offending trajectories over seven years.ResultsHuman but not social capital is relevant for distinguishing between offending trajectories, even after controlling for other risk factors, and the combined effect of human and social capital is even more pronounced.ConclusionsThe acquisition of social but especially human capital is preventive of crime among serious adolescent Hispanic offenders.     

The long term recidivism risk of young sexual offenders in England and Wales– enduring risk or redemption?

PurposeTo examine the long-term sexual recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders in England and Wales, and to compare the risk to that of a first time sexual offense for non-convicted juveniles. Additionally, the study explores the long term sexual recidivism risk of other types of juvenile offenders, and the long term violent recidivism risk of these groups.MethodsThe England and Wales Offenders Index was used to extract birth cohort data. Life table methods were used to estimate cumulative recidivism risk, and discrete time hazard models were used to compare hazard functions.ResultsAt the five year period, 7% of juvenile sexual offenders have been reconvicted of a sexual offense; reaching 13% by the end of the 35 year follow-up. When the reconviction hazard of the juvenile sexual offenders was compared with the first sexual conviction risk of a non-convicted comparison group, the hazards converged statistically after 17 years.ConclusionsThe study has implications for the registration periods of juvenile sex offenders. Indefinite registration for some juveniles needs to be considered, and a review of registration after a conviction free period would provide more balance between the protection of the public and the rights of the offender.     

Japanese Society and Delinquency

Juvenile crime rates in Japan have been increasing as adult rates decline. The rise is produced mainly by an increase of minor offenses in the youngest (aged 14–16) age-group of offenders. To some extent this reflects a real change in the behavior of Japanese children. To a greater extent, we believe, it reflects a change in the behavior of the agents of juvenile justice, who are increasingly assuming jurisdiction over behavior that was formerly the responsibility of family, community, and school.     

Analyzing block randomized studies: the example of the Jersey City drug market analysis experiment

Objectives

While block randomized designs have become more common in place-based policing studies, there has been relatively little discussion of the assumptions employed and their implications for statistical analysis. Our paper seeks to illustrate these assumptions, and controversy regarding statistical approaches, in the context of one of the first block randomized studies in criminal justice—the Jersey City Drug Market Analysis Project (DMAP).

Methods

Using DMAP data, we show that there are multiple approaches that can be used in analyzing block randomized designs, and that those approaches will yield differing estimates of statistical significance. We develop outcomes using both models with and without interaction, and utilizing both Type I and Type III sums-of-squares approaches. We also examine the impacts of using randomization inference, an approach for estimating p values not based on approximations using normal distribution theory, to adjust for possible small N biases in estimating standard errors.

Results

The assumptions used for identifying the analytic approach produce a comparatively wide range of p values for the main DMAP program impacts on hot spots. Nonetheless, the overall conclusions drawn from our re-analysis remain consistent with the original analyses, albeit with more caution. Results were similar to the original analyses under different specifications supporting the identification of diffusion of benefits effects to nearby areas.

Conclusions

The major contribution of our article is to clarify statistical modeling in unbalanced block randomized studies. The introduction of blocking adds complexity to the models that are estimated, and care must be taken when including interaction effects in models, whether they are ANOVA models or regression models. Researchers need to recognize this complexity and provide transparent and alternative estimates of study outcomes.

     

Pathways to early delinquency: Exploring the individual and collective contributions of difficult temperament,low maternal involvement,and externalizing behavior

BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of difficult temperament and maternal involvement, measured at ages one and three years, respectively, on externalizing behavior at age five and early delinquency at age nine.MethodsMaternal- and child-reports from 4,897 members of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (FFCWS) were included in a path analysis of four of five waves of FFCWS data: Wave 2 (difficult temperament at age 1), Wave 3 (maternal involvement at age 3), Wave 4 (externalizing behavior at age 5), and Wave 5 (delinquency at age 9).FindingsAlthough difficult temperament at age 1 displayed a weak zero-order correlation with delinquency at age 9 and low maternal involvement at age 3 failed to correlate with delinquency at age 9, both entered into significant chained relationships with delinquency via externalizing behavior at age 5. In addition, difficult temperament at age 1 seemed to evoke low parental involvement at age 3.ConclusionsThe respective roles of a difficult temperament, maternal involvement, and externalizing behavior in a proximal chaining process may be partially responsible for the continuity that has been observed in antisocial behavior over time.     

Empirical assessment of the escabinato jury system

Abstract

There are two practical applications of the jury system: the jury of lay people and the escabinato jury involving joint decision making by legal experts and lay people. Research undertaken in this field has been almost exclusively centered on the former. This work consists of an empirical study of the role of legal suggest that the loss of a jury of peers implies the dominance of the judge's opinion. The causes and consequences of this domination have been assessed.     

Personality and crime: Knowledge destruction and construction in criminology

Antipersonality themes in mainstream criminology have been fueled for years by highly suspect moral, professional, and ideological concerns and by something less than a rational empirical approach. The research evidence regarding the importance of personality has been positive form the beginning but has been the focus of a highly rhetorical and pseudoscientific form of criticism. These efforts as knowledge destruction are reviewed and are found to be ideologically and professionally convenient but weakly grounded logically and empirically. The papaer concludes that a social theory of criminal conduct need not resist recognition of the importance of human diversity.     

Dance Films Association is Still Growing

Abstract

Reluctant Bureaucrats: The Struggle to Establish the National Endowment for the Arts Charles Christopher Mark Dubuque, Iowa: Kendall Hunt, 1992, 239 pages, paper $19.95

The Audience for American Art Museums J. Mark Davidson Schuster Research Division Report #23, National Endowment for the Arts Washington: Seven Locks Press, 1991, 46 pages, paper $10.95

21 Voices, The Art of Presenting the Performing Arts Naomi Rhodes Washington, D.C.: Association of Performing Arts Presenters, 1991, 324 pages, paper $20.00 members, $24.00 nonmembers.

Workpapers I: Rethinking and Restructuring The Arts Organization Nello McDaniel and George Thorn, eds. New York: FEDAPT, 1990, 141 pages, paper $16.95.

Workpapers II: Arts Boards: Myths, Perspectives and New Approaches Nello McDaniel and George Thorn, eds. New York: FEDAPT, 1991, 86 pages, paper $16.95.     

Book reviews

Status of pinnipeds relevant to the European Union. By P.J. H. Reijnders, G. Verriopoulos and S. M.J. M. Brasseur (eds.). DLO Institute for Forestry and Nature Research (IBN‐DLO), Wageningen. 195 pp. 1997.

Metapopulatlons and Wildlife Conservation. By D. R. McCullough (ed.). Island Press, Washington, DC. $29.95. 429 pp. 1996.

Biodiversity in the Seas: Implementing the Convention on Biological Diversity In Marine and Coastal Habitats. By A. C de Fontaubert, D. R. Downes, and T. S. Agardy. IUCN, Cambridge. $17.50. 92 pp. 1996.

The Marine Mammal Commission Compendium of Selected Treaties, International Agreements, and Other Relevant Documents on Marine Resources, Wildlife, and the Environment: First Update. Compiled by R L. Wallace. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 1017 pp. 1997.

The Biology of Sea Turtles By Peter Lutz and John Musick (eds.). CRC Press. 432 pp. 1996.