俄罗斯的发展道路

发展道路从本质上讲是一种价值取向,概括了俄罗斯社会发展的本质和目的,体现了传统与现代、民主化与国情的深刻辩证关系,并要求建立可以确保实现俄罗斯发展理念的机制。俄罗斯发展道路的调整与完善,是第六届国家杜马选举和总统大选的主要议程。当前,俄罗斯进入了全面发展的新阶段。加强政治竞争性是新阶段的新特点,其实质是俄罗斯新权威主义政体的改革问题。俄罗斯发展道路的调整面临挑战,主要包括国家资本主义模式的前景、国家与市场关系的协调、"统一俄罗斯"党的政党现代化、行政管理模式的改变、民意政治的挑战、社会政策的实施,以及国际战略的调整等一系列问题。俄罗斯究竟具有怎样的国家特性,如何看待俄罗斯的民主,如何看待发展道路的间断性,如何在俄国历史中理解历史俄国,这些都是研究俄罗斯发展道路的基础性问题。俄罗斯的国家身份认定从历史上就与帝国意识紧紧捆绑。这种自我意识在本质上缺乏对他者文化的尊重。这是当今俄罗斯如何融入世界的关键问题。精英阶层关于俄罗斯是"欧洲太平洋国家"的身份认定、新民族主义的思想倾向与"欧亚联盟"战略互为影响,是俄罗斯发展前景中值得关注的趋势。     

The Great Game and the evolving nature of political talk shows on Russian television

ABSTRACT

Much has been written about the specific way in which the Russian government under President Vladimir V. Putin uses television to propagate pro-government views on domestic and international politics by influencing what is aired. This paper examines the first season of The Great Game (Bol’shaya Igra in Russian), a television talk show that appears on Russia’s national television network Channel One, as an example of the government’s effort to shape public opinion. A content analysis suggests The Great Game differs from the typical Russian talk show genre in that it delivers political messages without much entertainment, providing cerebral discussions of issues that nonetheless back up all nine of the core “neoconservative” concepts underlying recent Russian political strategy. This suggests that the Russian government and television executives innovate to determine how best to use television to win over skeptical citizens to the Kremlin’s point of view.     

Secrecy and military expenditures in the Russian budget

ABSTRACT

This article proposes a transparent method for collecting, structuring, and analyzing Russian budget data on defense and security-related expenditures. A precise answer to the question of how big Russia’s defense expenditures are is impossible because of issues concerning secrecy and accounting principles. We circumvent this challenge by constructing lower and upper bounds for Russia’s military expenditure, showing that depending on the chosen measure these have increased from the range of 10.3–31.2% of federal expenditures in 2011 to 12.9–35.4% in 2018. The analysis also yields additional insights into the concept of secrecy in the Russian budget; we show that 39 out of 96 subchapters in the Russian budget contain secret expenditures, many of which are not nominally related to defense or security, and that secret expenditures increased as a share of total expenditures from 12% to 17% between 2011 and 2019.     

在俄华人灰色经营问题解析

灰色经营是指非正规但又被默许存在的经营活动。华人在俄进行灰色经营的领域主要有包棚种菜、在批发市场做买卖和带团旅游。华人在俄灰色经营活动之所以能够长期存在,在某种意义上是俄方有意为之的结果。俄罗斯社会缺乏安全感,对外资和外来移民充满戒心;在制定移民政策和引资政策时,总是更多地考量安全。这样就形成了如下矛盾心理:一方面对于外来移民的经营活动存在客观需求;另一方面又担心对外来移民的经营活动难以把控。对待在俄谋生的外来移民,俄方事实上的行为模式如下:先通过收严合法化空间使包括华人在内的外来劳务移民处于非法境地,然后,一方面默许其灰色经营方式的存在,另一方面在必要时进行检查和惩处。在这一背景下,如何化解灰色经营带来的危害,如何使经营方式由“灰”转“白”,就成为亟待探讨和解决的问题。     

Russia and Caspian Oil: Moscow Loses Control

A senior specialist on the Soviet and Russian economies examines issues surrounding the prominence of Caspian Sea oil in Russian policy. Attention is devoted to the evolution of Russian policy toward ownership of seabed resources, participation in international development consortia, and the routes, construction, and ownership of pipelines connecting the Caspian to world markets. Each issue is treated as one that engages the economics, politics, and security dimensions of international relations. Alternative scenarios for the future are outlined.     

Instrumentalizing the recent past? The new Cold War narrative in Russian public space after 2014

There has been much debate about whether the US and Russia are locked in a new Cold War, but much less attention as to how the term is used in Russian political discourse. Through a close analysis of public statements, I analyze how the Cold War narrative has been used in the Russian public space since 2014, and assess how the “resuscitation” of the Cold War paradigm has been used by Moscow’s political elites, in order to discuss its impact on foreign policy. I document a distinct shift in Russian policymakers’ use of the term in 2016 and trace this shift to domestic political considerations.     

Russian Policy to Asian Regionalism

In the last fifteen years Russian government policy has seen dramatic changes from almost complete leaning towards the West to a more balanced approach taking into account Russia's interests in Asia. This reversal of attitude was dictated by internal and external factors which, if not addressed, could severely compromise Russian overall position in the world and internal development of its eastern parts. The Russian federal government and their local authorities' policies towards regional groupings in Asia reflect their desire to take part in integration processes. Despite certain achievements in this field, obstacles remain on the road to full-fledged Russian participation benefiting Russia as well as other states. The problems emanate both from internal and external reasons. There are numerous discussions in the expert community on bow to deal with issues hindering economic development of the Russian Far East but they all agree that it cannot be achieved without the active interaction with Asian neighbors.     

Theodore Shabad: In Memoriam

Many observers of Russian politics since 1993, and particularly in the Putin years, have pointed to great and growing deficits in the democratic character and performance of its institutions. Do Russians share this increasingly pessimistic view of Russian democracy and politics under Putin? These issues are addressed using data from national surveys conducted in Russia on six occasions between 1993 and 2007. A possible discrepancy between many elite and international estimates of Russian democracy in practice and the views of ordinary Russian citizens is investigated with attention focused on whether there was a shift in values away from democracy.     

Who supported separatism in Donbas? Ethnicity and popular opinion at the start of the Ukraine crisis

Abstract

Donetsk and Luhansk are often labeled pro-Russian regions as a result of the founding of Peoples’ Republics there in spring 2014. This article investigates popular opinion in Donbas before armed conflict began, to determine whether the high concentration of ethnic Russians there drove support for separatism. Analysis of a KIIS opinion poll shows that, on the one hand, ethnic Russian respondents were divided on most separatist issues, with a minority backing separatist positions. On the other hand, they supported separatist issues in larger numbers than both ethnic Ukrainians and respondents with hybrid identities. Thus, while ethnic identity does not produce polarized preferences, it is relevant in shaping political attitudes. Also, analysis of an original database of statements made by Donbas residents indicate that they were motivated to support separatism by local concerns exacerbated by a sense of abandonment by Kyiv rather than by Russian language and pro-Russian foreign policy issues.     

俄罗斯问题的中国表述——关于20世纪中国对苏俄认知的研究

现在是重新认识20世纪中国如何表述俄罗斯问题的时候了.20世纪很长一段时间,俄国之于中国是一个挥之不去的迷思,这个迷思全方位地存在于中国社会,影响力至今不绝.我们需要澄清造成这种状况的自身原因.其中,一些著名知识分子因为时代原因,在无法直接触碰苏俄、不了解苏俄的情形下,却满怀热情地去认同或拒绝经由苏维埃所确认的那个俄国,不经学术研究和学理性判断,把原本是在国际反资本主义浪潮下获得成功的苏俄革命这一地域性现象,泛化为一种普世性的规律.1950年代以后,知识界依据苏联社会主义理论,把"解冻"以降的苏联变革理解为背离社会主义,把苏联解体看成是国际共运的失败.相应的,知识界这种缺乏现代民族国家考量的意见,又成为党政和社会理解苏俄问题的理论根据,在中国社会广泛流行.这种情况几乎持续到20世纪末.反思这些历史性表述,对中国在21世纪提升认识俄罗斯问题的水平、建构恰当的中俄关系,既有历史的警示作用,又有理论价值.     

Asymmetrical Federalism and State Breakdown in Russia

A distinguished American specialist on Russian politics summarizes factors, both domestic and international, pushing for and against regional separatism from the Russian Federation. Attention then turns to factors influencing the further devolution of authority from central to regional officials. A typology is offered of types of issues animating conflict in center-periphery relations. The article then discusses the impact of the August 1998 crisis on these trends and on prospects for the future.     

Official Russian identity discourse in light of the annexation of Crimea: national or imperial?

Close examination and analysis of the Kremlin’s framing of Russia’s annexation of Crimea reveals that domestically it was presented in unprecedented national irredentist terminology, aiming at reunifying the Russian nation in one state. The Russian nation was largely described in ethno-lingual or ethno-cultural terms, while the Russian state was all but explicitly declared as a nation–state of ethnic Russians. The official identity discourse was marked by the recasting and unprecedentedly strong reassertion of boundaries between the Russian and Ukrainian nations, legitimizing Russian claims to Crimea. However, the changing references to the crisis in Eastern Ukraine illustrate how the Kremlin’s identity rhetoric is still mainly guided by considerations of political necessity, rather than dictated by some national or ideological vision. Significantly, the focus of the Russian official identity discourse shifted from the state to the nation. This marks a decisive departure from Putin’s earlier largely statist rhetoric in the 2000s, and a new stage of maturation and official acclamation of national ethnicization trends launched during his third presidential term. After years of sitting on the fence, the Kremlin reinvented itself as an active and initiating player in the nationalism field.     

Comparison of Élite Groups in Tatarstan,Sakha, Magadan,and Orenburg

A distinguished Russian professor of sociology examines political, economic, and intellectual élites in two oblasts and two republics of the Russian Federation. Findings are based on documentary research as well as 260 interviews: 160 formal and 100 informal. The author examines the structure of élites, their orientations and characteristics, coalitions and cooperation among them, the construction of regional identities, and the prospects for élite transformation. The article compares and contrasts republics and oblasts and considers how élites in each type of region affect prospects for political change.     

俄罗斯问题的西方表述——关于欧美俄苏研究导论

在国际学术界和国际政治领域,俄罗斯问题是一个很复杂的概念.之所以如此,远不只是俄国本身的文明结构之复杂性所致,更有西方的独特表述之原因.影响西方对俄罗斯问题表述的,是因为西方自身的欧洲中心论、欧美所建构的"西方"概念及其在国际和俄国所产生的反应、对俄罗斯问题进行斯拉夫-俄国-苏联学研究等,这些原因从不同方面促成了西方对俄罗斯问题的认知和判断远不同于俄国,既时有谬误,又始终有着主体意识、独特发现.     

Playing with Information: The Israeli-Palestinian Conflict in the Russian Press

This article examines how the modern Russian press covers the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both historically and currently. Since print media are some of the most popular sources of information in Russia, such analysis helps us understand the media's priorities in presenting the conflict to Russian society. The article focuses on the inherently manipulative, albeit hidden, essence and layout of this material, which increases the likelihood of information bias. While the quality of the reporting on this conflict demonstrates the proximity of contemporary Russian media to the interests of the country's ruling powers, it also provides opportunities for the government to influence its audience's comprehension of Middle East politics.     

Russia's “turn to the east”: a study in policy making

Russia's recent reorientation “to the East” has gained increased urgency given events in Ukraine. Here the policymaking process surrounding the “turn to the East” is examined. The focus is on the economic dimension – the economic development of the Russian Far East and engagement with the Asia-Pacific region – rather than geostrategic and security issues. Policymaking is evaluated in terms of general approach and process, with the implications of the evaluation for Russian policymaking more generally then being explored. “Turn to the East” policymaking exhibits a strong commitment to strategic planning that is characteristic of Putin, and which in this case struggles not only with process issues but also with contradictions within the strategy and the challenging realities of the region. Regarding process, a far more institutionalized policy process than the currently dominant personalist view would lead us to expect is found, with relevant bureaucratic and non-state actors well represented in an elaborate and relatively formal process. However a considerable weakening of sign-off procedures is noted, which has lead to policy inconsistency and indeed “policy irresponsibility” among participants. The author attributes the weakening of sign-off procedures to Putin's frustration with the gridlock tendencies of strict sign-off regimes, rather than a desire to create a personalist regime of hands-on management. This suggests that improvement of the Russian policy process requires structural and procedural change, rather than simply leadership change.     

A Glimpse of Medieval Curonian Vernacular Architecture in Egils Saga SkallagrÍMssonar

Interviews were conducted with native Russian and Finnish speakers living in Estonia to examine their perspectives on language policy and usage. The aim was to paint a picture of how they perceived Estonian language policy, providing an insight into the cognitive frameworks within which they work, and into the social and historical factors shaping their discursive environments. For Finnish informants, official monolingualism was not normal, while de facto monolingualism seemed to be. For Russian speakers, the opposite seemed true: those interviewed accepted Estonian's official status but wanted to see more use of Russian ‘on the ground’. Their perspectives reflect their worldviews, which have been shaped by their personal, family, and community realities and experiences.     

One Year After the Collapse of the USSR: A Panel of Specialists

Six senior American specialists in Soviet, Ukrainian, and Russian affairs reflect on economic and political developments in light of apocalyptic expectations articulated in the West after the collapse of the USSR. Presentations, formulated in November 1992, focus on the lot of the consumer during the winter, a survey of direct foreign investments, the leadership of Yel'tsin, military and security considerations, and Russian-Ukrainian relations. Coverage of economic issues also includes discussion of food shortages, pervasive corruption, and Russian nationalist views of pro- or anti-market orientations. A concluding afterword embraces the December Congress of People's Deputies and Gaydar's departure. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: D19, F21, K42, P26.     

Locating Kaliningrad And KÖNigsberg In Russian And German Collective Identity Discourses And Political Symbolism In The 750Th Anniversary Celebrations Of 2005

This article begins by briefly exploring issues of conflict and control in relation to the 750th anniversary of the city of Kaliningrad/Königsberg. An analysis of the tensions between Russian regional (Kaliningrad) and national (federal) identity discourses on the political symbolism of the 750th anniversary commemoration is offered, using Russian media reports and interviews conducted in Kaliningrad. German narratives on the political symbolism of the anniversary events and their implications for German national identity discourses are investigated via interviews conducted in Kaliningrad and Germany, German media reports, books, films and a theater production about Königsberg. Particular attention is given to the impact of the German expellee organizations on framing the discourse about Königsberg in contemporary Germany. The article will conclude by comparing and contrasting the various discourses and interpretations of the anniversary in the Kaliningrad region, Russia and Germany.     

Running to stand still: aggressive immobility and the limits of power in Russia

The common conception of Russian politics as an elite game of rent-seeking and autocratic management masks a great deal of ‘mundane’ policymaking, and few areas of social and economic activity have escaped at least some degree of reform in recent years. This article takes a closer look at four such reform attempts – involving higher education, welfare, housing and regional policy – in an effort to discern broad patterns governing how and when the state succeeds or fails. The evidence suggests that both masses and mid-level elites actively defend informality – usually interpreted in the literature as an agent-led response to deinstitutionalization and the breakdown of structure – creating a strong brake on state power. More than a quarter century into the post-Soviet period, this pattern of “aggressive immobility” – the purposeful and concerted defense by citizens of a weakly institutionalized state – has in fact become an entrenched, structural element in Russian politics.