苏维埃制度崩溃原因的初步分析

苏联解体的轻率和突然令人震惊,但官方的苏联历史是神化的.并非国有制过度这种所谓的恶疾导致了苏维埃体制的崩溃.苏联经济落后及其被军备竞赛所耗尽只是意识形态的神话.石油价格波动同样未在苏联解体过程中发挥重要作用.后苏联时期俄罗斯相当长时期内的危机,不是从苏联延续下来,而是在拆解苏联时形成的.只有极少数公民有意识地否定苏维埃制度的主要基础.厘清苏联解体的原因,需要我们应打破教条和陈词滥调以及意识形态语言的藩篱.应区分苏维埃构想和其在实践中的具体表现--苏维埃制度.苏维埃构想并没有消灭自己,也没有退化或自我毁灭,而只是在成长中出现了疾病,其一系列制度无法适应苏联社会和苏联人发展的新形势.苏联体系的主要特点,或者说斯大林主义,是在 1905-1917年革命、内战、20 世纪 20 年代的新经济政策、30 年代的集体化和工业化、卫国战争期间形成的.当时的环境导致苏共在具体的制度设计上选择的范围很小,只能基于现实的威胁、资源潜力和历史上造就的具有惯性的文化环境.二战结束后,苏联的领导层未能妥善解决摆脱\"斯大林主义\",摆脱动员发展状态这样的复杂问题,进而导致了一系列的政治危机并由于冷战而深化其严重性.苏联既是被冷战的对手所扼杀,更死于自己的双手.苏联合法性的危机酝酿了 30年才成熟.苏维埃制度早期的合法性源自对群众对社会苦难的记忆.伴随着城市化的发展,至 20世纪 60-70年代,苏联社会从根本上发生了改变.但城市化给对苏维埃的不满制造了客观的前提条件.一种隐性的危险日益增大,即以前的苏维埃制度的思想基础迅速急剧地衰弱乃至消失.苏联短期内有两代感觉自己毫无生活保障的年轻人被改革、公开性、集会以及文化多元论弄得神魂颠倒.精英阶层的反苏部分的行动利用了这种世界观危机并使之加剧.而新一代领导人既无法迅速揭示也无法预防社会上已经出现的矛盾,而且无法找到有效的方法解决成熟的问题.党的高层与苏联社会现实的脱离令人震惊,他们自以为掌控着国内进程,但实际上底层的干部掌握着形势.这使得戈尔巴乔夫日益激进的改革导致雪崩式的后果.从这一意义上讲,苏联的解体是文明和世界观危机的结果.其实质在于,苏联社会与国家没能胜任在代际更替的过程中更新社会制度合法性手段的任务;无法保障文化历史类型嬗变的延续性,这种递嬗发生在现代化和城市化过程中并和整个社会走出20世纪20至50年代的动员型发展状态的危机相吻合.     

1958年苏联从罗马尼亚撤军始末

1944年苏军进入罗马尼亚后,对其战后初期的政治、经济和社会都产生了很大的负面影响。1955年罗马尼亚首次要求苏联撤军,结果遭到赫鲁晓夫的强硬拒绝。经过不懈努力,1958年苏联终于同意罗方要求。苏联之所以同意撤军,主要是出于和平攻势的需要,也考虑到罗马尼亚处在一个不容易受西方国家攻击的地理位置,同时也是对罗马尼亚忠诚的奖赏。苏军的撤出为罗马尼亚以后独立自主政策的实施大开了方便之门。     

1968年“普韦布洛”号危机初期的美苏交涉

1968年普韦布洛号危机发生前后,约翰逊政府最高决策层依旧在很大程度上坚持共产主义铁板一块的观点,一致认为朝鲜此举的目的在于支持北越,苏联参与其中,甚至是主谋。于是,美国的第一反应便是寻求苏联的帮助,要求对方迫使朝鲜还船放人。苏联一面拒绝充当调停者,一面暗中规劝朝鲜尽快以和平方式解决危机。然而,最终苏联的努力未见成效。此次美苏交涉充分表明:虽然中苏同盟破裂已成定局,但华盛顿依旧固守过往的冷战思维,深信苏朝越的对外战略是协调一致的;1960年代末,在中苏分裂和朝韩竞争的特定时局下,苏联这个社会主义超级大国已无力真正影响朝鲜外交政策的走向。     

Coming to terms with neopatrimonialism: Soviet and American nation-building projects in Afghanistan

The author examines how patrimonial forms of domination, as conceived in a Weberian sense, came to pervade the formal bureaucratic apparatuses developed under both Soviet Marxist–Leninist (from the late 1970s) and American-coalition liberal designs (since 2001), creating hybrid states defined by neopatrimonialism. Drawing lessons from the survival and eventual collapse of the Najibullah regime following the 1989 withdrawal of Soviet forces, the article finds that the continued extension of aid and arms, and not the presence of foreign military forces, proved most effectual in sustaining the Afghan leader's patronage-based grip on power. Arguing that the contemporary regime of Hamid Karzai has likewise adopted a neopatrimonial-type rule, these findings have clear implications for current American policy in Afghanistan. America, Afghanistan's ultimate patron, can better ensure stability in the region by extending aid to Karzai than by continuing a large and costly military occupation of the region.     

俄罗斯农业制度变革史论

不论是十月革命前的俄国、革命后建立的苏联,还是苏联解体后独立的俄罗斯,农业问题在其历史发展进程中,一直占有重要地位。沙俄是一个落后的农业国家。苏联并没有解决好农业问题,农业一直是个落后的部门。苏联解体后俄罗斯独立,直到近几年其农业发展才出现转机。农业的发展状况在很大程度上取决于农业制度。土地关系和农业组织形式是构成农业...     

Baltic Local Governments’ Fiscal Situation: Two Decades Of Reforms

In January 1991 Soviet troops conducted several military operations in Vilnius and Riga aimed at subduing the renegade Baltic republics. In the aftermath of these events, nearly 20 civilians died and dozens were injured. To this day, Mikhail Gorbachev, president of the Soviet Union at that time, denies knowing or approving of these operations. This article reexamines his claims of innocence and finds convincing evidence to the contrary: most likely, he did not order the deaths of innocent people, but he embraced the solution that led to this outcome.     

‘How can I be post-Soviet if I was never Soviet?’ Rethinking categories of time and social change – a perspective from Kulob,southern Tajikistan

Based on anthropological fieldwork conducted in the Kulob region of southern Tajikistan, this paper examines the extent to which the existing periodization ‘Soviet/post-Soviet’ is still valid to frame scholarly works concerning Central Asia. It does so through an analysis of ‘alternative temporalities’ conveyed by Kulob residents to the author. These alternative temporalities are fashioned in especially clear ways in a relationship to the physical transformations occurring to two types of housing, namely flats in building blocks and detached houses. Without arguing that the categories ‘Soviet’ and ‘post-Soviet’ have become futile, the author advocates that the uncritically use of Soviet/post-Soviet has the unwanted effect of shaping the Central Asian region as a temporalized and specialized ‘other’.     

Persistence and change in Soviet and Russian relations with Afghanistan

This paper examines persistence and change in the Soviet Union's and then Russia's relations with Afghanistan with respect to development and security. First, a detailed analysis of the promise and reality of Soviet development assistance reveals conceptual shortcomings in their attempt to induce economic development in Afghanistan. The Soviet Union's heritage is then revealed in order to understand Russia's current perception of post-Taliban Afghanistan as well as Russia's emerging interests and commitment to Afghanistan's economic development. This paper argues that Russia will most likely replicate standard industrialization development approaches in contributing to Afghanistan's development. Therefore, Russia will probably run into problems similar to those that led to the failure of the Soviet modernization project, which consisted of large-scale development projects that were inappropriate to the country's institutions and the lives of most Afghans. It is questionable whether such reiteration will induce economic development now, in the complex setting of a fragmented and fragile state with a multitude of external players looking out for their own interests.     

苏联改革的两面性:从改革走向崩溃

在毫无征兆的情况下,苏联突然解体了。苏共领导人戈尔巴乔夫的改革把苏联带入了一场典型的革命性进程之中。苏联的政治经济体制改革的起步非常谨慎,随后逐步扩大到政治层面,并升级为激进的政治诉求和改革,进而持续升温成为一场革命性的大动荡。旨在恢复社会秩序、实现社会稳定的苏联版"热月政变"由此出现。实际上,前苏联的这场改革并不像当下一些政客抑或是戈尔巴乔夫本人所讲述的那样,是一场有计划的、有组织性的,旨在实现民主化、西方式的民主社会类型和市场经济的改革。苏联的解体也并非因为灾难性的经济危机,事实上,苏联的经济早已是一潭死水。苏联之所以会走向解体,主要在于其一系列旨在解决严重的社会经济问题的改革准备既不充分,信息也不全面。历史上不乏各种经意和不经意的结果,这场改革将苏联整个社会推入了政治经济不断沉沦的漩涡,引起权贵阶层尤其是苏联加盟共和国中执政者的不安。这反过来又催生了一股压力,要求迅速纠正这些意料之外的结果。从本质上说,苏联解体是这场自上而下改革的结果,这场改革的开始是由于部分苏联精英利用了苏联上层社会对激进改革以及加盟共和国的民族主义的诉求,然而却以整个社会体系的改变而告终。     

Third time lucky? Establishing diplomatic relations between Russia and South Africa

Diplomatic relations between Russia and South Africa were established in 1992, before South Africa's transition to democracy was completed. This move was perceived as a betrayal by many in both countries and beyond. For many decades the Soviet Union supported the African National Congress in its fight against the apartheid regime. South Africa's National Party government, in its turn, presented the USSR as the main force behind the ‘total onslaught’ – an all-out war purportedly waged against South Africa by international communism. Yet it was with the National Party government that the Russians established diplomatic relations. This article looks into the reasons for this change of heart in Moscow and Pretoria, discusses the political forces behind the decision to establish diplomatic relations, and analyses the process that led to this event and the results of establishing diplomatic relations the way it happened and at the time it happened for both countries.     

Czechoslovakia and its Position within the Solidarity Network of Chilean Communism: A Reflection on the Coup and Resistance against Pinochet from a Country with Worn-out Revolutionary Ideals

The article will analyse the development of the Chilean cause in the politics of Eastern Europe countries since 1973, focusing on the Czechoslovak case. On the one hand, it will prove that during the communist government Czechoslovakia played an important role in the international campaign for the resistance against the dictatorship at a worldwide level. On the other hand, it posits that the propaganda aimed at Czechoslovakia, which sought to kindle society's belief in the revolutionary ideals strongly affected after the Soviet invasion in 1968, turned out to be much less effective.     

Estonia in the 1990s

Abstract

As Estonia nears its second decade of restored independence, it seems appropriate to offer an overview and assessment of developments during the 1990s.¹ The time perspective is now sufficient to justify such an exercise, and although numerous specific ­­ and often very valuable ­­ studies of various aspects of the transition in Estonia have been published in recent years, they typically remain focused on only part of the overall picture. After a brief look at the process by which an independent Estonia was reestablished in 1991, this article provides a summary analysis of the main trends in domestic politics, foreign policy, economic development, population shifts and society, and culture during the decade of the 1990s. The emphasis is on the political sphere, but all major aspects of Estonia's post-communist evolution are covered.     

History writing as agitation and propaganda: the Kazakh history book of 1943

The reconstruction of the Soviet recent past is a controversial issue in the post-Soviet republics. In Kazakhstan, the reconstruction of the past has gradually rehabilitated leading Kazakh communists, such as Zhumabai Shaiakhmetov. One of the main rationales of this rehabilitation is his support for Kazakh historical writing, which resulted in a textbook published in 1943. This work has been seen as an endeavor by ‘patriotic’ Kazakh officials and historians to defend Kazakh national heritage against the ‘Soviet colonial empire’. By presenting a broader view of the war period in Kazakhstan from the archives, this article argues that this history textbook was in fact merely an agitation-propaganda product of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan. Shaiakhmetov and others had mostly secured their career by remaining loyal to the Soviet system during the collectivization, the Great Famine and the Great Terror. Therefore, their encouragement of the publication of a national history in 1943 for propaganda purposes does not qualify them as suitable predecessors of the current generation of Kazakh rulers.     

苏联为什么会终结?

1991年 3月17日全苏公投仍有高达 76%民众支持保留共同国家.但不到 9 个月之后,别洛韦日森林声明即宣布苏联终止存在.假如在公投举行以后,不是采取建立主权国家联盟的方针,而是循序渐进地建立一个软联邦,一开始仅限于建议签订建立共同经济空间的协议,分离主义者的目的就不会达到.8·19事件更多是起了雷管的作用.先前的发展方式挖了苏联的墙角.导致苏联垮台的深层次经济原因体现在行政管理体系的结构性危机上.而由国家结构中长期缺乏联邦制引发的中央与各加盟共和国关系的危机,是苏联解体的另一个最重要的原因.保留苏共作为确保苏联统一的机制,其必要条件是党本身的民主化.制约苏共民主化的主要力量是党的机关,它实际上处于选举出来的党的机构之上.在帮助苏联走出经济困境方面,西方甚至连手指头都没有动一下.而困难至极的经济形势在很大程度上注定了苏联的解体.     

Soviet musicology and the ‘nationalities question’: the case of latvia

Nation branding, as a phenomenon, is attracting increasing scholarly attention. However, much of the existing literature has been written by those involved in the public relations industry themselves. There have been some studies which have been written from a critical viewpoint; however, the tensions of branding a nation have often been neglected. This paper aims to explore the inherent tensions between nation branding and nation building. To what extent is nation branding a tool or a practice? What images of the nation do branders seek to promote, and who is this image for? Is nation branding merely a more palatable version of nationalism? In particular this paper focuses on the debates surrounding the launch of Brand Estonia in 2001/2. Brand Estonia, with the slogan Welcome to Estonia: Positively Transforming, was launched to coincide with Estonia staging the Eurovision Song Contest in 2002. It is a unique and interesting case study given the level of controversy that the initiative generated amongst the Estonian public. Estonia was the first Former Soviet Republic to launch a nation branding project and, perhaps more controversially, it was managed by a British-based company, Interbrand. However, little scholarly attention has been paid to public-level discourses concerning Brand Estonia. The empirical findings discussed in this article highlight some of the more salient narratives on national identity that Brand Estonia engendered and therefore aims to fill this gap.