Deterrence and delinquency: An analysis of individual data

Is commission of crime deterred by fear of arrest? Individual self-reported data on the commission of three crimes are analyzed in relation to perceived probabilities of arrest for more than 3000 French-speaking teenagers of the Montreal school population in 1974. The crimes are shoplifting, drug use, and stealing an item worth more than $50.00. In addition to the effect of the individuals' perceptions of the probability of arrest for the three crimes, age, sex, and previous arrest record are also taken into account. The data are all categorical. A multivariate log-linear probability model is estimated in order to test hypotheses concerning the direction and magnitude of bivariate associations among the variables. We conclude that there is clear evidence of a negative association between the subjective probability of arrest for each crime and the frequency of commission of that crime. We also find some negative cross-effects of the perceptions of the probability of arrest for one type of crime on the commission of another, holding constant the direct effects.     

What Do Juvenile Offenders Know About Being Tried as Adults? Implications for Deterrence

An underlying assumption in the nationwide policy shift toward transferring more juveniles to criminal court has been the belief that stricter, adult sentences will act as either a specific or general deterrent to juvenile crime. With respect to general deterrence—whether transfer laws deter would‐be offenders from committing crimes—it is important to examine whether juveniles know about transfer laws, whether this knowledge deters criminal behavior, and whether juveniles believe the laws will be enforced against them. The current study is one of the first to examine juveniles' knowledge and perceptions of transfer laws and criminal sanctions. We interviewed 37 juveniles who had been transferred to criminal court in Georgia, obtaining quantitative as well as qualitative data based on structured interviewed questions. Four key findings emerged. First, juveniles were unaware of the transfer law. Second, juveniles felt that awareness of the law may have deterred them from committing the crime or may deter other juveniles from committing crimes, and they suggested practical ways to enhance juveniles' awareness of transfer laws. Third, the juveniles generally felt that it was unfair to try and sentence them as adults. Finally, the consequences of committing their crime were worse than most had imagined, and the harsh consequences of their incarceration in adult facilities may have had a brutalizing effect on some juveniles. The implications for general and specific deterrence are discussed.     

ASSESSMENTS OF RISK AND BEHAVIORAL EXPERIENCE: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF CHANGE

This study examines the relationship between assessments of the risk of punishment and self-reported involvement in three illegal behaviors in a sample of college-aged respondents. It is found that those respondents who had not yet committed a particular offense were more likely to perceive a greater certainty of punishment than those with experience in committing the offense. For two of three offenses the effect of becoming involved in offending had a more substantial impact on the perceptions of those respondents with both experience in offending and high perceived certainty of punishment than on those who had experience and less pessimistic estimates of risk Finally, a multivariate analysis of the relationship between behavioral and perceptual change reveals that each variable affects the other even when other sources of change are controlled. The importance of the findings for the deterrence doctrine are discussed.     

Perceptional foundations of deterrence: The case of prostitution

The authors conducted a survey to determine community perceptions about the certainty, celerity, and severity of punishment with regards to the crime of prostitution. A representative random sample of Mecklenburg County, which includes Charlotte, North Carolina, was taken and 850 individuals responded. The results revealed that (1) citizens perceive sanctions against prostitution violations as being applied only infrequently; (2) most respondents perceive the time from violation to arrest as being relatively short but slower as the offenders proceed through the system, and (3) the severity of punishment is not perceived as being harsh. The authors argue that the low likelihood of apprehension, both actual and perceived, plus the mild sanctions may partially account for prostitution’s continued survival.     

DISCERNING UNFAIRNESS WHERE OTHERS MAY NOT: LOW SELF-CONTROL AND UNFAIR SANCTION PERCEPTIONS

Criminologists have long recognized that whether one perceives a sanction as fair or unfair influences the deterrent success of sanctions and the legitimacy afforded to legal authority. Unfortunately, although several scholars have claimed that individual characteristics influence how sanctions are interpreted, very little research has explored the individual factors that influence how one perceives sanctions to be fair/unfair. In this study, we take Gottfredson and Hirschi's notion of self-control and use it to explain, in part, whether an individual perceives a sanction as fair/unfair. We also examine how sanction perceptions and low self-control influence the perceived anger that may result from being singled out for sanctioning and whether self-control conditions the relationship between perceptions and anger. Our results suggest that individuals with low self-control are more likely to perceive sanctions as unfair, that unfair sanctions and low self-control lead to perceived anger for being singled out for punishment and that self-control conditions the effect of unfair sanction perceptions on perceived anger. Future directions are outlined.     

The Impact of Police Strength and Arrest Productivity on Fear of Crime and Subjective Assessments of the Police

We explore the effect of police strength and arrest productivity on citizens’ fear of crime and perceived risk of victimization, as well as their subjective perceptions of the police including their confidence in the police and ratings of police response time. Police strength is measured as the rate of officers per 1,000 and productivity is calculated as the average number of arrests per officer; we also controlled for the crime rate using crimes reported to the police. We use nationally representative survey data (n?=?1,005) and conduct a supplemental analysis of data drawn from a representative sample of urban counties (n?=?1,500). Police force size and productivity have limited and inconsistent effects on fear of crime, perceived risk, and ratings of response time and no apparent effects on confidence in the police. We also find a modest yet statistically significant negative effect of police confidence on fear of crime. Our findings indicate that it is questionable whether adding more police will reduce fear or perceived risk of victimization to any measurable degree. Consequently, we suggest that rather than hiring binges and increased arrests, the focus should be instead on making positive contacts with citizens.     

Religious Motivated Hate Crimes: Reporting to Law Enforcement and Case Outcomes

Relative to non-bias motivated crimes, hate crimes have much graver consequences for victims and their community. Despite the large increase in religious hate crimes over the past decade relative to all other hate crime, little is known about these types of crimes and the factors associated with both reporting to law enforcement and case outcomes. Utilizing the National Crime Victimization Survey and National Incident-Based Reporting System datasets, this study examines the relationship between victim, offender, and incident characteristics on reporting to law enforcement and case outcomes. Most religious hate crimes are not reported (41.3 %) in part due to perceptions of law enforcement’s perceived response. Of the violent incidents that are reported, the vast majority do not result in the arrest of an offender (22.2 %). Whereas only a small number of variables related to the seriousness of the offense are associated with both reporting and arrest, these exhibited large effect sizes.     

LINKING ACTUAL AND PERCEIVED CERTAINTY OF PUNISHMENT:

An untested proposition in deterrence theory is that people's perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community are influenced by their exposure to information about crimes committed in the community which have and have not resulted in arrest. We examine the effects of two sources of information on people k perceptions of the certainty of arrest in a community: (1) newspaper crime stories and (2) personal experiences with crimes and the personal experiences of one's acquaintances. Only the latter appear to influence people's estimates of the certainty of arrest.     

For Whom Do Sanctions Deter and Label?

Deterrence and labeling theories make opposing predictions regarding the effect of sanctions on subsequent crime. Deterrence anticipates that sanctions deter, while labeling anticipates that sanctions amplify future crime. The knowledge base with respect to this question is vast, and while a handful of studies provide evidence of a deterrent effect, the majority of studies indicate a null effect. Our study examines whether an arrest leads to an increase in subsequent crime, but extends the knowledge base by considering whether an arrest has the same effect across offender trajectories and by employing techniques that deal with sample selection bias. Thus, we assess for whom sanctions deter or exacerbate subsequent offending. Results indicate that for greater risk youth, arrest amplifies subsequent delinquency, net of other effects, but not among lower risk youth. Thus, experiencing an arrest aggravates subsequent delinquency among some but not all persons. Implications and directions for future research are identified.     

Deterrence and arrest ratios

In the limited research on the origins of sanction threat perceptions, researchers have focused on either the effects of actively engaging in crime or the effects of formal sanctioning but rarely on both (i.e., the arrest ratio or the number of arrests relative to the number of crimes committed). This article extends this line of research by using a sample of Colorado inmates and measures arrest ratios and sanction perceptions for eight different crime types. Analyses reveal that the offenders report both significant experiential and arrest ratio effects. Theoretical and policy implications, limitations, and directions for future research are outlined.     

CRIMINALS' AND NONCRIMINALS' PERCEPTIONS OF URBAN CRIME

This paper offers an exploration of criminals’ and non-criminals’ perceptions of crime in an urban milieu. Specifically. we examine perceptions of the incidence of crime within the city, of variations in police pratection. and of variations in the likely difficulty of committing crimes in different parts of the city. The analysis examines the distinctiveness of; and interrelationships among, these variables controlling for the racial status and criminal-non-criminal status of the respandents. Additionally. perceptions of the difficulty of committing crimes m different parts of the city are related to generalized perceptions of the city for our racial subgroups of criminals. The results provide evidence on the distinctiveness of criminals in such terms, on some factors influencing strategic criminal decision-making, and on ways m which criminal behavior shares common elements with other social behavior.     

CRIME AS HAZARD: PERCEPTIONS OF RISK AND SERIOUSNESS*

The study of crime suffers from an inattention to the social consequences of criminal acts. Conceiving crimes within the larger context of “hazard,” data are reported on the relative seriousness of conventional and white-collar crimes, as well as other hazards, using a sample of Washington state respondents. The results indicate that there is an inverse relationship between the perceived likelihood of a hazard and its seriousness. Generally, the more immediate the threat of a hazard, such as white-collar crimes, the more serious it is perceived to be. There are also implications from these consequences for perceptions of institutional effectiveness and interpersonal relationships. This suggests that future studies of the consequences of criminality, especially white-collar and corporate violations, might be directed toward the notions of risk and, eventually, social trust.     

TESTING THE TRANSITIVITY OF REPORTED RISK PERCEPTIONS: EVIDENCE OF COHERENT ARBITRARINESS

An often implicit assumption of perceptual deterrence tests is that the elicited values pertaining to arrest risk reflect stable underlying beliefs. But researchers in other disciplines have found that reported expectations are highly susceptible to exogenous factors (e.g., anchors and question ordering), indicating that such values are somewhat arbitrary responses to probabilistic questions. At the same time, reported expectations are coherent within persons, such that respondents rank order them rationally. For deterrence, then, absolute values reported on arrest risks are likely not stable but individuals still rank order specific crimes in meaningful ways. We examine the interpretability of reported arrest risk for three possibilities: 1) Reported risks are stable probabilistic values; 2) reported risks are arbitrary and uninformative for deterrence research; or 3) reported risks display “coherent arbitrariness” with unstable values between individuals but stable rank ordering of crimes within individuals. Through the use of three random experiments of college students, our results indicate that elicited risk perceptions are arbitrary in that they are influenced by the presentation of anchors and question ordering. Nevertheless, the rank ordering of crimes within and across conditions is unaffected by the presentation of anchors, suggesting that reported risks are locally coherent within persons.     

Citizenship status and arrest patterns in the United States: evidence from the arrestee drug abuse monitoring program

The purpose of the study was to estimate associations between citizenship status and arrest for crimes among male arrestees. The primary hypothesis was that citizenship status (a rough proxy for immigration) has significant effects on arrest for violent personal crimes, property crimes, and four other selected offenses. Data were derived from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) Program for the years 2000 through 2002 inclusive. Our sample comprised male arrestees only. Logistic regression models were fitted to the data to estimate the citizenship status-crime relationship. Results showed no significant association between citizenship status and arrest for violent crimes. Non-citizens were 15% less likely than citizens to be arrested for property crimes; they were also less likely to be arrested for weapons offenses and drug offenses. Non-citizens were much less likely to test positive on NIDA-5 drugs than citizens. Non-citizens were, however, 50% more likely than citizens to be arrested for forgery/counterfeiting. It was concluded that public perceptions about the relationship of citizenship status to criminal behavior may be exaggerated and may not be borne out by empirical evidence. Limitations of the study are pointed out, including the fact that in the ADAM data, naturalized immigrants are lumped together with native born citizens.     

Legal and Extralegal Barriers to Delinquency

Recent research on deterrence has begun to couch discussions of legal sanctions in the context of broader perspectives that take account of other factors that may inhibit law violation. Such an approach can answer significant questions about the importance of legal sanctions relative to other variables. In this research, a three-variable inhibitory model suggested by Grasmick and Green (1980) was tested using panel data from a large sample of adolescents. Internalized normative constraint was found to be the strongest predictor of subsequent delinquency. However, perceptions of the risk of both formal and informal sanctions add significantly to the model's explanatory power. Interaction effects were noted that suggest sanction threats may have a compensatory effect where internal constraints are weak.     

Violent Street Crime Versus Harmful White-Collar Crime: A Comparison of Perceived Seriousness and Punitiveness

Recent studies have challenged traditional wisdom regarding public apathy about white-collar crime by revealing equal or greater perceived seriousness of these offenses among respondents relative to traditional crime. Nevertheless, subjects in those studies were generally asked to contrast white-collar crime scenarios with a non-violent street crime baseline vignette. Perhaps a violent street crime would have invited lower perceived seriousness for the white-collar offenses. Participants in the present study were asked to (1) read vignettes describing violent street crimes and physically harmful white-collar crimes, (2) compare their seriousness, and (3) determine appropriate sanctions. Subjects perceived the violent crime scenarios presented to them to be more serious than the harmful white-collar crime vignettes. Further, they were less punitive toward white-collar offenders compared with street criminals. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Sanctions, Perceptions, and Crime: Implications for Criminal Deterrence

Objectives

A survey of empirical research concerning the determinants of an individual’s perceptions of the risk of formal sanctions as a consequence of criminal behavior. The specific questions considered are: (1) How accurate is people’s knowledge about criminal sanctions? (2) How do people acquire and modify their subjective probabilities of punishment risk? (3) How do individuals act on their risk perceptions in specific criminal contexts?

Methods

Three broad classes of extant studies are reviewed. The first is the relationship between objective sanctions, sanction enforcement, and risk perceptions—research that includes calibration studies and correlational studies. The second is the relationship between punishment experiences (personal and vicarious) and change in risk perceptions, in particular, research that relies on formal models of Bayesian learning. The third is the responsiveness of would-be offenders to immediate environmental cues—a varied empirical tradition that encompasses vignette research, offender interviews, process tracing, and laboratory studies.

Results

First, research concerning the accuracy of risk perceptions suggests that the average citizen does a reasonable job of knowing what criminal penalties are statutorily allowed, but does a quite poor job of estimating the probability and magnitude of the penalties. On the other hand, studies which inquire about more common offenses (alcohol and marijuana use) from more crime-prone populations (young people, offenders) reveal that perceptions are consistently better calibrated to actual punishments. Second, research on perceptual updating indicates that personal experiences and, to a lesser degree, vicarious experiences with crime and punishment are salient determinants of changes in risk perceptions. Specifically, individuals who commit crime and successfully avoid arrest tend to lower their subjective probability of apprehension. Third, research on the situational context of crime decision making reveals that risk perceptions are highly malleable to proximal influences which include, but are not limited to, objective sanction risk. Situational risk perceptions appear to be particularly strongly influenced by substance use, peer presence, and arousal level.

Conclusions

The perceptual deterrence tradition is theoretically rich, and has been renewed in the last decade by creative empirical tests from a variety of social scientific disciplines. Many knowledge gaps and limitations remain, and ensuing research should assign high priority to such considerations as sampling strategies and the measurement of risk perceptions.     

Bullying behaviour and criminality: a population-based follow-up study of adolescent psychiatric inpatients in Northern Finland

The recent school shootings in Europe and the USA have raised the question of whether victims of bullying run an increased risk of committing violent crimes later in life, but scientific research in this area is scarce. The aim of this work was to investigate whether bullying behaviour is associated with later criminal offences committed in adolescence and young adulthood. We studied a sample of 508 Finnish adolescents (age 12-17 years) admitted to psychiatric inpatient care between April 2001 and March 2006. Data on crimes committed and the age of onset of criminal activity were extracted from the official criminal records of the national Legal Register Centre in October 2008. The Schedule for Affective Disorder and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children, Present and Lifetime (K-SADS-PL) was used to define bullying status, and to obtain DSM-IV-based psychiatric diagnoses for the adolescents. Violent crimes were statistically significantly associated with bullying behaviour, but not non-violent crimes. Furthermore, being a bully was predictive of an early onset of severe violent offences. When controlled for the psychiatric diagnoses of the adolescents, we observed decreased likelihood of criminality among victims. Thus bullying others may increase the risk of violent offences, while being a victim is not a risk factor for criminality.     

Consequences of legal risk communication for sanction perception updating and white-collar criminality

Objectives

Scholars have long emphasized that communicating, or “advertising”, information about legal sanction risk is necessary for the success of deterrence-based crime policies. However, scant research has evaluated whether direct communications about legal risk can cause sanction perception updating, the updating of ambiguity in sanction perceptions, or changes in persons’ willingness to offend. No prior studies have evaluated sanction perception updating for white-collar crimes.

Methods

To address this research void, the current study analyzes data from an experiment embedded in a recent national survey (N?=?878). Multivariate regression models estimate the effect of providing participants with information about the “objective” arrest risk for white-collar offenses on their sanction perceptions.

Results

The findings provide the first evidence that such information, when it is inconsistent with individuals’ prior beliefs, causes them to update: (1) their perceptions of the certainty of arrest; (2) their ambiguity about arrest risk; and, indirectly, (3) their willingness to commit white-collar crimes.

Conclusions

The results imply that individuals are willing to incorporate relevant information into their subjective beliefs about sanction risks. Importantly, however, they also make meaningful distinctions about the value of new information for understanding criminal risks.

     

Factorial analysis of risk matrix 2000 on an Italian sample of sexual offenders

ABSTRACT

In order to assess the internal structure of Risk Matrix 2000 in an Italian sample of 308 adult males convicted for sex abuse, a principal component analysis with Promax rotation was performed. The results identified a structure with three factors that explained 53.8% of the total variance: the first factor concerned items referred to the criminal career of the offender; the second factor concerned the age of onset in committing crimes; the third factor was more strictly related to the offenders' attitude towards the sex crime/s, and reflects the aggravating items of the S scale. These results allows us to have the first validated tool on an Italian sample for assessing the level of risk for recidivism.