The reliability of reliability

The author critically analyzes an article by Rodolfo Corona Vazquez that questions the reliability of the preliminary results of the Eleventh Census of Population and Housing, conducted in Mexico in March 1990. The need to define what constitutes "reliability" for preliminary results is stressed.     

The geographic scope of migration in Mexico City

"This paper reports some results of analyzing migratory dynamics in the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City, which ever since the 1970-1980 decade have affected other regions of the country, mainly the State of Mexico. The analysis describes different types and modes of migratory movement: metropolitan (from Mexico City), inter-county (within each state), and interstate (between Mexico City and other states). Data was provided by the XI Population and Household Census of 1990." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Black and immigrant labor force participation in America

Model minority theory frequently ascribes blame for the socioeconomic condition of African Americans to their own lack of positive work-related attitudes. Data from the 1990 Census of Population are used to assess the relative work situation of three major Black groups in America–African Americans, African, and Caribbean immigrants. The findings are not supportive of the hypothesis that African Americans are less motivated to work relative to their Black immigrant counterparts. Rather, a key finding is that the employment status of Black natives and immigrants is a function of the income or money available to individuals. Once Blacks are employed, there are no differences in work intensity between African Americans and their African and Caribbean immigrant counterparts.     

Central‐city and suburban migration patterns: Is a turnaround on the horizon?

Abstract

The huge population losses that characterized many older, larger U.S. cities during the 1960s and 1970s slowed and in some cases ceased during the 1980s and early 1990s. Periodic media reports of neighborhood turnarounds, commercial revitalization, and improvements in housing and the quality of life in selected inner‐city subareas have been taken as signs that central cities are retaining middle‐class residents and even attracting some back from the suburbs.

Analysis of metropolitan household migration patterns based on the U.S. Census Bureau's 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Samples and more recent Current Population Surveys shows that the dominant trend in residential movement among most population subgroups is still toward the suburbs. While not discounting reports of central‐city neighborhood turnarounds and selective demographic revitalization, our findings imply that those improvements are limited and that a widespread back‐to‐the‐city movement is not likely in the foreseeable future.     

Collecting information on disability in the 2000 Census: an example of interagency cooperation

The United States Constitution requires that an enumeration (or census) of the population be conducted every 10 years to apportion seats in the House of Representatives. Census information is also used to allocate funds and to plan and manage programs. Census 2000 occurs on April 1, 2000, when one-sixth of all American households will be mailed the "long form," containing disability, demographic, economic, and housing questions. Although no short set of commonly accepted questions on disability existed, one was developed for Census 2000 by a collaborative, federal interagency work group on disability, convened by the Office of Management and Budget. The work group consisted of staff from the Social Security Administration (SSA), the Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Census Bureau, and other agencies. They reviewed questions initially proposed by the Census Bureau, developed an alternative proposal, tested both versions in the Census Bureau's cognitive questionnaire lab, and on the basis of testing, derived a consensus version for Census 2000. In many ways, the six questions now contained on Census 2000 are an improvement over previous efforts. Disability is ascertained for children as well as for adults, and information will be collected separately for several domains of disability (for example, sensory, mental, physical). The need for a brief set of disability measures goes beyond Census 2000. If such data were collected regularly on national surveys, critical policy and program concerns across agencies could be addressed because better information could be gathered on changes in disability prevalence and on the characteristics of persons with disabilities. Other similar efforts include the former Disability Evaluation Study, now known as the National Study of Health and Activity--a national sample survey on working-age disability to be conducted by SSA--and the President's Task Force on the Employment of Adults with Disabilities (Executive Order 13078).     

中国妇女人力资源开发状况

人力资源的开发状况主要表现为受教育程度和就业水平。中国妇女的人力资源开发水平目前还比较低,不及国内男性人力资源的开发水平。本文利用2000年第五次全国人口普查资料,对中国妇女人力资源的开发状况作了初步分析,认为要提高妇女的人力资源开发水平,首先是要加强妇女教育,其次是要促进妇女就业。     

Public policy,perverse incentives,and the homeless problem

Is homelessness a housing problem per se? In this paper we employ a HUD study from 1984 and Census data from 1990 within the context of simultaneous empirical models to examine this and other issues relating to homelessness in the United States. Our central conclusion is that homelessness does not appear to be a national housing problem as such and that, given untoward incentives among actual and potential homeless populations, policies addressing homelessness should be directed at other instruments of change (such as mental health funding and expenditures to treat substance abuse).

     

Race,income, and home PC ownership: a regional analysis of the digital divide

While digital divide research has focused on differences in computer access at the national level, few studies have examined interrelationships among race, income, and personal computer (PC) ownership at the regional level. This article examines the racial and economic divide in home PC ownership across four census regions of the U.S. Our analyses are based on supplementary data from the Census Bureau’s August 2000 Current Population Survey. The results indicate that White households are significantly more likely to own a PC than African American households in all regions. The extent of this racial divide is greatest in the Midwest and smallest in the West, and particularly high in the $50,000–$75,000 income category. The racial divide in PC ownership is negated only in households earning more than $75,000 annually. A significantly large income divide also exists among African American PC owners in all regions.     

An empirical test of neutrality and the crowding-out hypothesis

This paper tests Warr's neutrality hypothesis that the voluntary provision of a public good is independent of the distribution of income. Specifically, I test the null hypothesis of neutrality against the alternative that total contributions to a public good will be larger the less equally income is distributed. To test this hypothesis, a new data set is constructed by merging data on total voluntary contributions to individual public radio stations with 1990 Census data on the income distribution in each station's listening area. I find that voluntary contributions increase as income inequality rises.     

How fair? Changes in federal income taxation and the distribution of income, 1978 to 1998

In this paper, we determine how tax law and income distribution changes have separately contributed to the changes in tax progressivity over time, and also how a specific pre‐tax distribution of income affects the equalizing ability of a given tax change. We use information from the Current Population Survey for years that follow immediately after significant tax law changes or after the full enactment of these changes to measure the effect of income taxes on income distribution for selected years over the period 1978 to 1998. We find that, even when account is taken of the induced effect of changes in federal income tax laws on pre‐tax income, the individual income tax structure has been less successful in equalizing after‐tax income since the 1980s and into the early 1990s. We also find that a given tax law's equalizing effect on the distribution of income is significantly affected by the pre‐tax distribution of income. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

The impact of legal constraints on voter registration,turnout, and the composition of the American electorate

Research on the effects of restrictive voter registration laws has been largely passé for nearly a decade, apparently due to the widespread acceptance of Wolfinger and Rosenstone's (1980) study of voter turnout. Wolfinger and Rosenstone's research indicates that fully liberalized registration laws would produce a larger voting population, which would differ only marginally in its composition from the existing electorate. But their analysis only addresses turnout, not registration itself, and is based on a single sample of the American electorate, 1972. This paper focuses on the impact of restrictive laws on registration and turnout in presidential and nonpresidential election years during the period 1972–1982, relying on data from both the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Surveys and the National Election Studies. The results of the analyses do mark important points of difference from Wolfinger and Rosenstone's findings. Ultimately, however, there is no escaping their conclusion that the implications of liberalized voter registration laws on the composition of the electorate would be relatively minor.     

Leveraging Technologies in Public Agencies: The Case of the U.S. Census Bureau and the 2010 Census

Emerging technologies are transforming government agencies and the nature of governance and pose new challenges for public managers. Under the leadership of Steven J. Jost, associate director for communications, the U.S. Census Bureau leveraged emerging technologies during the 2010 Census to complete the project under budget while also engaging citizens through the design of viable participatory platforms. The 2010 Census campaign focused on increasing response rates and encouraging citizen participation through innovations in the communication process with citizens and through the infusion of technology. The Census Bureau also effectively managed risks associated with the use of emerging technologies. The authors examine the innovations, the risks, and the effort to manage those risks under Jost’s leadership.     

Measuring Disparity in Government Procurement: Problems with Using Census Data in Estimating Availability

The Supreme Court's ruling in City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson (1989) has restricted the use of government procurement assistance programs for minorities and women without the prerequisite support of a disparity study. Recently, an increasing number of disparity studies have been rejected by the courts as "junk science" and the related programs have been ruled unconstitutional. A central issue in these cases has been the approach used to estimate the availability of minority and women firms. Data from the Economic Census are commonly used as the basis for these availability estimates. However, there are significant problems and limitations with the Census data relative to the Croson guideline that the availability of women and minority firms should reflect the number of qualified, willing, and able firms. Given the number and difficulty of the required adjustments to the Census data, it is unlikely that these data will provide availability estimates that are accurate enough to allow for valid statistical tests of an inference of discriminatory exclusion. If minimizing court challenges is a goal of the public administrator who is responsible for the program, then the recommendation here is that a primary source of availability data should be considered. Furthermore, the information system needed to support the women and minority assistance programs should be designed and installed prior to initiating the program.     

The Consequences of Gentrification for Racial Change in Washington,DC

This article looks at the effects of gentrification on the racial composition and transformation of urban neighborhoods. The investigation examines Washington, DC, a city that has undergone significant and contentious racial transformation in the past few decades. To provide for a more robust analysis of how gentrification is associated with measures of racial displacement and diversity, I employ two separate quantitative measures. Using U.S. Census Bureau long form, American Community Survey, and decennial census data, I compare tract-level changes in racial evenness and displacement between gentrifying and nongentrifying areas from 1990 to 2010. The findings suggest that gentrification is associated with the displacement of blacks, but this racial turnover is not consistently associated with greater levels of racial and ethnic diversity compared with nongentrifying neighborhoods.     

Employment and urban growth; an application of Czamanski's model to the Mexican case

The author applies the 1964 model developed by Stanislaw Czamanski, based on theories of urban growth and industrial localization, to the analysis of urban growth in Mexico. "The advantages of this model in its application as a support instrument in the process of urban planning when the information available is incomplete are...discussed...." Census data for 44 cities in Mexico are used. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Planning the future in the context of the past

Margo Anderson is professor of history and urban affairs and director of the Center for Women’s Studies at the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee. She is author of numerous articles on the history of statistics and census-taking; The United States Census and Labor Force Change;and, forthcoming from Yale University Press. The American Census: A Social History.     

Intergroup Prejudice in Multiethnic Settings

This article examines how out-group perceptions among Asian Americans, blacks, Latinos, and whites vary with the racial composition of their surroundings. Previous research on the contextual determinants of racial attitudes offers mixed expectations: some studies indicate that larger percentages of proximate out-groups generate intergroup conflict and hostility while others suggest that such environments promote interracial contact and understanding. As most of this research has been directed at black-white relations, the applicability of these theories to a multiethnic context remains unclear. Using data that merge the 1992–1994 Multi-City Study of Urban Inequality and 1990 Census, we find that in neighborhood contexts, interethnic propinquity corresponds with lower levels of out-group prejudice and competition, although intergroup hostility is higher in metropolitan areas with greater minority populations. Further tests suggest that these results do not occur from individual self-selection; rather ethnic spatial and social isolation bolster negative out-group perceptions. These findings suggest the value of residential integration for alleviating ethnic antagonism .     

Money incomes of aged and nonaged family units, 1967-84

This article provides a detailed examination of changes in the income of the aged and of other age groups from 1967 to 1984. Levels of income, income inequality, the relative importance of selected types of income, and the poverty rates of various age groups are also analyzed. The data are from the Bureau of the Census Current Population Survey and annual money income before taxes is the measure of income. The relative income gains of the aged, compared with the nonaged, in 1967-84 reversed an earlier pattern in the post-World-War-II period: From 1947 to 1967, the incomes of the nonaged rose at a faster pace than those of the aged. Differences in their income growth were greater in 1979-84 than in 1967-79. Despite the substantial difference in the rates of income growth for the aged and nonaged units in 1967-84, the relationship between age and median income was altered only slightly. In 1984, aged family units continued to have relatively low median income, especially compared with the incomes of those in middle age.     

中国性别失衡问题的社会管理:整体性治理框架

1980年以来中国的出生人口性别比开始急剧升高并长期高位徘徊.随着中国社会的快速转型,性别失衡作为社会管理领域的重大人口问题正面临着诸多问题和挑战.因此在当前的人口社会管理中的管理理念和公共政策等方面就需要突破旧有的管理格局和机制,引入整体性治理理论,最终构建性别平等的和谐社会.本文描述了中国出生人口性别比的最新态势,评述了近年来性别失衡治理的公共政策体系,从整体性治理理论出发论述了社会管理视域下性别失衡治理问题,并基于整体性治理理论提出了性别失衡的社会管理框架,为政府性别失衡治理问题提供支持.基于上述框架,本文发现在中国的性别失衡社会管理框架中存在碎片化问题,公共政策体系需要完善,在性别失衡整体性治理的社会管理框架中要纳入对大龄未婚男性的关注.     

Is the marriage market unbalanced? The case of Mexico in 1980

"The objective of this article is to present the results obtained when estimating how balanced, in numerical terms, the Mexican population of marriageable age [12 to 50 years old] was in 1980, in relation to its structure by age and sex, as well as the timing of its nuptiality. This estimate was made for both the state and national levels, using as a source of information the 1980 Census...." (SUMMARY IN ENG)