On the political economy of state highway expenditures: Some evidence of the relative performance of alternative public choice models

This paper explores the extent to which the public demand for roads and/or power of special interest groups determines road expenditures at the state level using an extension of the methodology developed in Congleton and Shughart (1990). Reduced form models of median voter demand, special interest group equilibria, and a combined model are estimated using cross-sectional state data from the United States. We generally find support for the hypothesis that voting matters. The pure median voter models have a better fit than the pure special interest group models. Moreover, in our combined model, we find that variables from the median-voter model can not be dropped without significantly reducing the combined model's fit.     

Procreation and the succession of generations

"This article presents a complex conceptual and methodological proposal.... The study proposes an analysis similar and complementary to the abstract models of formal demography. Specifically, the article considers the practices and strategies of procreation, as well as the subjectiveness of people as constitutive elements of a succession of generations, as observed on different analytical levels." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Benchmarking sustainability performance: the next step in building sustainable business models

Developing sustainable business models incorporating effects on people, profit, and planet is becoming an increasingly important strategic issue. Benchmarking with peer companies can assist a company in setting goals of improving its performance. As such, developing a methodology for effectively benchmarking sustainable business practices is an important step in the evolution of sustainability management. However, a company's sustainability performance is composed of many elements that may involve difficult tradeoffs, and its performance may vary over time. In this paper, we propose a data-driven approach of innovatively adapting statistical process control charts, conventionally used in quality control, to simultaneously compare multiple performance measures and analyze variation in both trend and performance among companies in a given industry. We apply this approach to benchmarking the sustainability performance of companies in the US utility industry and demonstrate it is robust and reliable for benchmarking the performance of companies in virtually all industries. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of a priori-a posteriori models of change in policy analysis: Applications to simulating the white flight phenomenon

Theory is the foundation of policy studies in the social sciences; its specification via a model is a key element in the selection of appropriate methodologies to study policy. Many policy analysts, due to their professional training and the availability of computer software, sometimes fail to distinguish between theory which is a priori based or theory that is a posteriori based; hence they tend to develop a dependence on one type of methodology in their studies. The purpose of this study is to examine empirically how this important dichotomy might lead to different methods of analysis and to possibly erroneous conclusions. In some cases, the poor selection of research methods severely limits the range of findings and insights available to the policy analyst. The applications of a priori and a posteriori based models to educational policy studies of white flight are presented and the results compared to underscore the importance of recognizing the distinctions between a priori and a posteriori models.     

The Political Ecology of Nostalgia

A virtual revolution in transport, telecommunications, and computational technologies is rapidly blurring the distinction between domestic and international economies....any domestic growth strategy must, almost by definition, be an export-oriented strategy....the highest growth rates and most exciting new market opportunities are in the Western Hemisphere, in Latin America, and most especially in the Pacific Rim. - Roy MacLaren, Canadian Minister for International Trade (italic added).     

Adding immigrants to microsimulation models

Forecasts of the financial status of Social Security's Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) programs and forecasts of the effects of various OASDI policy options on Americans would be improved if information about the earnings and labor force behavior of various population subgroups were included in projection models. Focusing on the projection of immigrant earnings, this article proffers a conceptual basis for incorporating immigration into microsimulation models. Key results from research on immigrant earnings, as described in the first article in this trilogy--"Research on Immigrant Earnings"--are linked to methods for forecasting individual earnings in microsimulation models. The research on immigrant earnings also inspires new methods for forecasting earnings in microsimulation models as well as the projection of immigrant emigration. Forecasting immigrant earnings and emigration is discussed in the context of a "closed system"--that is, forecasts are only made for a given population, which is represented in the base sample of the microsimulation model. The third article in our trilogy--"Incorporating Immigrant Flows into Microsimulation Models"--explores how to project immigrant earnings in the context of an "open system," which includes future immigrants.     

Growth models and limits-to-growth models as bases for public policymaking in economic development

This paper analyses several economic growth models to evaluate their usefulness for policymaking. The assumptions underlying some of the simple growth models are questionable and they are narrow in scope. A comparative statics model is broad in scope, but it fails to deal with mechanisms of adaptation and adjustments or with cases of discontinuity, increasing returns, and unlimited growth. The dynamic growth models tend to give undue emphasis to capital and labour. The Malthusian model has proven historically wrong. The Meadows model is broader in scope, but its assumptions are mostly not scientifically established and its use of quantitative data is careless. The above models are also defective because of over-aggregations and under-specifications. They all fail to take fully into account technological and institutional changes, which have been responsible for four-fifths of economic growth in the past and are expected to help overcome the limits to future growth. Needed are models based on an acceptable growth theory, which take into account all basic factors (including technological and institutional changes) as interrelated elements and give adequate attention to the mechanisms of adaptation and adjustments.     

Black-box models of candidate evaluation

All contemporary models of candidate evaluation are memory-based models in that they treat the direction and strength of evaluation as a function of the mix of positively and negatively valued (valenced) information retrieved from memory. Yet, oddly enough, despite the assumption that memory mediates judgment, none of the major models looks at the processes involved in what information voters recall and how that evidence was integrated into a summary evaluation. In this sense then, political science models of vote choice are black-box models: They are silent about how voters actually go about interpreting information and integrating the evidence into a summary evaluation of the candidates. In this article we critique the major political science models, call attention to the implicit assumptions they make about what evidence is assumed to be in memory, and conclude with an argument for introducing process into our explanations of vote choice.     

Diffusion models over the life cycle of an innovation: A bottom-up and top-down synthesis approach

The diffusion models tend to be tested individually in isolation and remain the same over time for the studied innovations in the literature. Moreover, there is growing interest to learn from other countries in our current age of globalization. Therefore, this paper chooses the innovation of public resources trading platforms in China to fulfill above literature gaps. We have examined key events and the issuances of related laws and regulations by Chinese governments. Our contributions are twofold: (a) Our analysis and results show that the diffusion models evolve over the different stages of a life cycle of an innovation, contrasting to the literature results that diffusion models remain the same for their studied innovations. Due to major diverse characteristics among different adopter categories over a life cycle of an innovation, we argue that it is appropriate and necessary to apply different diffusion models on different adopter categories, which is missing in the current literature. (b) We find a first bottom-up and then top-down synthesis approach as an effective, efficient diffusion process for both fitting local needs (i.e., effective) and adopting innovations rapidly nationwide (i.e., efficient).     

Can the two new aid-growth models be replicated?

Recent aid effectiveness literature centers on two competing models from the family of conditional models: The Good Policy Model, where the key feature is policy times aid, and the Medicine Model, where it is aid squared. Both models were reached on a sample of 1/3 of the available data. The models are simplified to be replicatable on more of the data. Within-sample the Good Policy Model proves fragile, while the Medicine Model is more robust. Both models fail in out-of-sample replications. A semi-parametric technique is used to test for an unknown functional form of the aid-growth term. It rejects that aid is statistically significant.     

A comparison of rent-seeking models and economic models of conflict

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the basic rent-seeking model and a simple economic model of conflict. Each model is concerned with a game in which players invest resources in pursuit of a prize. The purpose of the analysis is to elucidate structural differences between the two models, and to analyse the consequent behavioral differences and equilibrium outcomes in the two cases. A key finding is that, where such comparisons are possible, the conflict model tends to involve greater relative expenditure on wealth-redistribution activities than does the rent-seeking model.     

Maternal mortality in Mexico: measurement based on vital statistics

"Vital statistics are the most comprehensive source of information on maternal mortality in Mexico.... It is clear that maternal mortality has decreased throughout the twentieth century and will continue to do so. There are signs of a higher underestimation of mortality [due to] abortion. And there are regional differentials of maternal mortality.... Professional and/or institutional attention during childbirth has a great impact on maternal mortality decline. There are also socio-economic differentials by marital status, milieu, and schooling...." (EXCERPT)     

The forecasting potential of complex models

The nature and use of complex models for forecasting and policy simulation are analyzed on theoretical and empirical-performance grounds. The analysis suggests that while the accuracy of complex models in forecasting trends in such fields as economic and energy is, and will remain, undistinguished, complex models' special virtues of preserving counter-intuitive results and representing subsystem interdepedence could be used to better advantage than current practice permits. Suggestions for such improvements, through more diversified model structures, micro-process models in addition to the typical macro models, a mix of mechanically- and judgmentally-operated models, and the modeling of policy response, are reviewed.     

Explaining collective action with rational models

We note the failure of a rational egoist model of human behavior to generate successful predictions of important economic and political behaviors including collective action. Alternative models are presented that combine rational, utility-maximizing features with concerns about collective welfare. The performance of these models in explaining contributing behavior in an experimentally-induced public goods game is compared to the performance of a rational egoist and collective welfare model. The results indicate that a model in which subjects are presumed to trade off benefits to self with benefits to others provides a better explanation of actual contributing behavior than either the rational egoist or collective welfare models, but still explains only a small amount of the individual variance in contributing behavior.The Institute for Political Economy, Utah State University provided important financial support for this study. Donald Cundy, Alan Huston, Joe Oppenheimer, John Orbell, and Randy Simmons provided valuable comments on earlier drafts.     

Features of nuptiality in the border zone

"This article is limited to an analysis of some characteristics of nuptiality in the municipalities in the northern border zone of Mexico, based on the classification of the population by age and sex [and] by marital status...contained in the 1980 Census.... Nuptiality in the border zone is not only distinguished from that of the country as a whole, but also in relation to the states in which the municipalities comprising it are located." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The transition of migratory patterns in medium-sized cities

"The authors attempt to present some empirical findings regarding a phenomenon which they chose to call the 'transition in migratory patterns'.... The general hypothesis states that: changes in migratory patterns are due to an interaction between those economic, political and social processes which affect the distribution of the population; and that this interaction is also highly influenced by macroeconomic politics--an arena where technology plays a dominant role." Data are for Guadalajara and the state of Jalisco in Mexico. (SUMMARY IN ENG)