Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the content of the information set used by the agents in the Warsaw Stock Exchange - WSE. Three “candidate variables” are examined — consumers’ prices, the zloty/US$ exchange rate and the refinancing rate of the National Bank of Poland — with respect to three WSE stocks, from different sectors of the economy. The methodology employed supposes that the innovations in the price series are orthogonal to all variables within or outside the information set. Beyond the question of how to specify the agents expectations, the WSE trading rules and the high volatility period present in all monthly price series were additional problems to render it operational. Given the solutions adopted, in only three out of the nine cases tested, it was possible to reject the null that the candidate did not belong to the information set. This is a signal that macroeconomic fundamentals are still absent from the WSE.     

我国证券市场结构突变与波动性实证研究

重大事件的发生会使证券市场波动率发生结构突变.通过修正ICSS算法检验,可以发现我国证券市场波动存在明显的结构变化.将结构突变因素加入波动率模型进行比较后,可以发现含结构突变的波动率模型能更准确地刻画波动率特征.再分别按照结构突变发生的时间点分割样本区间与构造虚拟变量两种方法,对含结构突变的波动率模型进行比较研究的结果表明:构造虚拟变量方法对我国证券市场的波动率建模能取得较好的统计效果.     

上海证券市场波动性现状与卖空交易机制建立

在金融市场微观结构理论分析框架下,交易机制的变革以市场质量为评判基准.运用相关模型的实证研究表明,上海证券市场存在着较为明显的波动聚集、波动持续现象,市场整体波动性较大.根据卖空机制的制度功能分析,卖空限制的存在增加了该市场的波动性水平,降低了市场质量,因此有必要在该市场建立卖空交易机制以降低其波动性水平,在建立模式的选择上可以参照香港建立证券登记结算公司模式的卖空机制.     

分析师跟进行为对上市公司资本成本的影响——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

证券分析师通过传递信息、降低分析信息的成本来增进整个市场的有效性.基于中国上市公司样本的研究发现,分析师跟进与股权融资成本具有负相关关系,分析师作为信息中介能够对资本成本产生影响,这也印证了Easle和O'hara提出的信息是经典三因素模型外影响资本成本另一重要因素的理论假说.对这一作用可能的解释是,分析师跟进能够扩大投资者基础,进而降低融资资本成本,实证结果证实了Merton提出的投资者认知假说.     

Impact of Currency Boards on Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European Countries

The paper focuses on the impact of currency boards on fiscal policy in transition economies. Starting with an overview of theoretical and empirical studies in the related area, it tests for the interaction between monetary policy regimes and fiscal policy in Central and Eastern European countries who aim for the membership in the European Union. The theoretical background of this study lies in the model of Tornell and Velasco (1998). They demonstrate that fiscal transfers do not ultimately depend on the chosen exchange rate and monetary policy, but only on the world's real rate of interest and the rate of time preference of the fiscal authority. A sample of 10 accession candidates constitutes a group of countries which go through similar macroeconomic stabilisation processes but have chosen different nominal anchors. The paper investigates whether there are any systematic differences between those countries with a currency board arrangement and those without. The empirical evidence suggests that currency boards enhance fiscal discipline in Central and Eastern European countries.     

Use of trusts by Eastern European clients: practical issues

In order to get a more sophisticated understanding of the useof trusts by the clients from Eastern Europe (primarily fromRussia), it is worthwhile describing the procedure for settingup a trust with a typical representative of the ‘new wave’Eastern European business; painting a collective portrait ofRussian businessmen in 2007, and identifying the most commontypes, their specific features and the possible difficultiesof working with this sort of client. This modest unsystematicreview will help trust professionals to break through a cultureshock produced by the contact with a recent extraterrestrial,and now a demanding client. This article provides an insightinto most frequent queries and examines psychological aspectsof behavior, business practice and, if possible, to dispersestereotypes.     

The Economic Convergence Performance of Central and Eastern European Countries

A critical discussion of a comparative growth analysis about Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries is performed. The main conclusion is that there was economic convergence for most CEE accession candidates, but not between them and Western Europe. Results do justify a separation into first and second-wave accession countries, but also undermine differences in Central and Eastern Europe between accession and non-accession countries. This paper critically examines theories and empirical studies for three types of convergence, namely β,σ and club convergence. Each can be in absolute terms or conditional to the long-term equilibrium (steady state) for each country. Empirical results are provided for all types of convergence from 1996 to 2000, both with population-weighted and non-weighted data. The analysis is performed for differently framed country subgroups considering even Western Europe for better comparability. Once absolute convergence is found through a unit root test about a standard deviation time series of cross-sectional income per capita, the regression coefficient for initial income per capita with the average growth over the sample period as dependent variable (β convergence) establishes the speed of this process. The same method applies to the conditional version by using the distance of the income from the corresponding steady state instead of the level of GDP. Then Markov chain probability matrixes (club convergence) provide information about the past behaviour of the whole cross-sectional income distribution over time, but also about intra-mobility of single countries.     

The Regulation of Media Markets in selected EU Accession States in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract:   This article examines the phenomenon of policy transfer in the EU accession countries of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovenia. When formulating media laws in the early 1990s, these countries were presented with models put forth by advisors from the US and EU Member States. Advisors proposed models based upon their own domestic policy and/or organisation agendas. A resulting 'battle of the models' can be observed with different experts and actors lobbying for the adoption of contrasting regulatory models. Underlying this were often political, economic and trade interests. In particular, 'Western' governments were interested in guaranteeing the opening of new markets, and the stability of these new media markets for Western capital investment, as well as wider political concerns of consolidating democracy in Europe. Interest groups and NGOs wished to transfer their ideas to Eastern Europe often in advocacy of their own agendas in an enlarged Europe.     

Constitutionalising Subsidiarity in Integrated Markets: The Case of Tobacco Regulation in the European Union

Abstract:  The article establishes three propositions. First, if a constitution establishes the principles of subsidiarity and proportionality as legal principles, questions of competencies are closely tied up with questions of regulatory policy. This means that the Treaty carves out a powerful role for the Court of Justice to assess the jurisdictional reasonableness of market intervention when reviewing whether the EU was legally competent to act. Second, general scepticism about courts being able to play such a demanding role in policing jurisdictional boundaries in federal systems are unjustified in the EU. The new procedure established in the Constitutional Treaty, which is likely to be included in any renegotiated constitutional settlement, involves national Parliaments and the Commission building a written record addressing the relevant policy issues on which the court can base its review. Additionally national courts serve as an external check on the Court of Justice, disciplining the Court of Justice to focus on taking competencies seriously or facing the prospect of national courts disapplying EU law on the grounds that it was enacted ultra vires. Third, even though there are some promising points of departure in its case law, the Court of Justice has not yet adopted a doctrinal framework that effectively operationalises the Treaty's commitment to subsidiarity and proportionality in the context of the common market.     

Legal Consequences of EU Accession for Central and Eastern European Health Care Systems

Since the ratification of the Europe agreements, Eastern European accession countries are transposing community law into their national legal framework. The law approximation process in the field of health concerns three themes, viz public health, health–related issues, and the internal market. Although the health acquis has been largely focused on public–health issues, it is increasingly becoming clear that internal market treaty provisions may also affect health–related rights. For candidate member states this means that the common market has important consequences for health and their health–care systems. Therefore, this paper will examine the impact of relevant treaty provisions on acceding countries' (public) health legal framework.     

财产归扣制度研究

在共同继承中,为了达到公平的目的,不少国家的立法都明确规定了遗产分割中的财产归扣制度,以保护共同继承人的利益。我国《继承法》中有关与被继承人共同生活的继承人,分配遗产时可以多分的规定,可以在一定程度上弥补没有财产归扣制度的缺陷。但这种补救不能起到真正的维护共同继承人利益的作用,难以实现继承法对平等、公平价值的追求,为此,在继承立法中设立财产归扣制度,无论是从理论层面上看,还是从现实层面上看,都是很有必要的。     

The effect of (the absence of) multinationals' foreign direct investment on the level of Eastern European trade

Identifying the most important systemic characteristics that have determined the behavior of CPEs is crucial for the choice of a transition path within the ongoing economic reforms in these countries. The empirical literature on the comparative behavior of CPEs and MEs often gives little help in explaining exactly why the economic performance of CPEs differs from that of MEs. This is certainly the case for studies that have previously examined the comparative levels of CPE trade. Employing the data and methodology of an existing study (Browning, 1985), and adding a variable representing the level of MNC activity in each country, it is shown that the low levels of CPE trade can be completely explained by the NMC activity, without recourse to other effects of the economic system.     

法律、政治和市场的全球化对国内法的影响：以欧洲为视角

本文以全球化进程、国际化进程以及新旧国家主义的强对抗力量为背景,分析了国际体系的新的错综复杂性及其对国内法的影响。在第一部分,作者引入全球化的概念及其是否发生的国际背景。第二部分,作者描述和分析了在贸易和环境领域,关税与贸易总协定、经济合作和发展组织和欧共体框架内在全球化过程中的主要战略、机制和手段。基于上文论述,作者在第三部分认为在国际模式下,主要是通过缔结国际协议迫使各国将国际法律义务转变为国内法,而在超国家模式下,立法全球化的影响是直接的。选择何种模式,必须作出许多政治性决策:必须决定全球化是一个可取的结局;必须决定全球化问题认知达到必要程度的方法以及更可取的解决问题方法;必须改变传统市场导向方式。作者还建议美国和欧共体成员国要对国际政治、经济和法律事务的传统民族国家为中心的认知进行修正。     

基于Volatility的内存信息调查方法研究

随着反取证技术的发展，调查人员越来越难于在磁盘介质中寻找到有价值的证据或线索。针对内存信息的调查分析研究由此成为计算机法庭科学领域日益关注的焦点。通过以内存调查取证开源软件Volatility为背景，从进程及DLL、内存及VAD、驱动程序及内核对象、网络连接与注册表等多个角度描述内存信息的调查方法．并结合实例说明所述方法在实际工作中的具体应用。