俄罗斯卢布汇率安排的经济效应分析

俄罗斯转型时期的宏观经济波动与汇率制度安排之间存在着密切的关系.本文在评述新兴市场经济国家汇率制度选择困境和概述俄罗斯汇率制度演变的基础上,从汇率与通货膨胀、汇率与对外贸易、汇率与资本流入、汇率与外债规模结构变动等方面分析了汇率制度安排及汇率变动的宏观经济效应,并简要总结了俄罗斯的实践对中国的启示.     

Inflation and the Making of Australian Macroeconomic Policy, 1945–85

Inflation and the Making of Australian Macroeconomic Policy, 1945–85. By Michael Beggs (Basingstoke: Macmillan Palgrave, 2015), pp.xii + 325, £75.00 (hb).     

试论荷兰殖民统治对印尼现代政治发展的影响

本文回顾了荷兰在印尼的殖民统治过程和特点 ,同时也简要论述了它对印尼现代政治发展的影响。本文认为 ,现代印尼政治中的许多问题都与殖民统治有着千丝万缕的联系 ,只有充分了解殖民统治的历史影响 ,才能更好地了解现代印尼政治发展的曲折历程。     

东亚地区货币汇率波动的互动性分析

20世纪70年代以来,东亚地区各经济体的货币汇率尽管极力维持与美元的相对稳定,但是随着其经济的发展,不可避免地出现了汇率波动.本文采用格兰杰因果分析方法对东亚各经济体货币汇率的互动性进行检验,发现东亚地区货币汇率的波动存在着一定的互动性.这种互动性在1997年的东亚金融货币危机中得到了进一步的体现.     

建立东亚固定汇率区:构想、困境与现实选择

东亚货币一体化的最终目标是建立东亚固定汇率区,实现东亚单一货币.目前,关于建立东亚固定汇率区有六种代表性构想,每一种构想都有其优势和缺陷.在东亚实际钉住美元的汇率制度下,东亚汇率制度的选择面临困境.选择东亚合意汇率制度、构建东亚固定汇率区,首先要实现双边汇率稳定,再实现"次区域"汇率稳定,最后实现东亚整体汇率稳定.     

欧元汇率波动对中欧商品贸易的影响研究——基于SITC分类的汇率弹性测算

2011年,欧盟与中国相互成为最大贸易伙伴,欧元也成为人民币汇率形成机制中主要权重货币,欧元汇率变动对于双边贸易均衡及贸易结构均产生很大影响。本文采用1999-2008年间汇率波动和商品贸易季度数据,进行单位根检验和协整检验,并构建误差修正模型(ECM)对欧元兑人民币汇率变动与中欧不同种类商品贸易长期和短期的影响进行实证分析。①分析结果表明,从长期看,欧元与人民币汇率变动对双边贸易影响满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,汇率贬值对贸易收支改善作用显著,但各类商品的汇率弹性存在较大差异;短期均衡关系则不显著。     

近年菲律宾的外商投资及其政策调整

菲律宾经济受到亚洲金融危机的冲击虽不如泰、马、印尼等国家严重,但外商投资受到较大影响.为恢复经济,菲律宾政府调整了外资政策,采取一系列优惠措施以吸引更多的外资.     

Good Inflation, Bad Inflation: The Housing Boom, Economic Growth and the Disaggregation of Inflationary Preferences in the UK and Ireland

This article presents a comparative analysis of the determinants, sustenance and broader macroeconomic consequences of the ultimately unsustainable housing boom in Ireland and the UK in recent years. It examines, in particular, the role played by ostensibly depoliticised monetary policy in both contexts in the development of a house price bubble that has served to fuel consumer-led growth. It assesses the viability, sustainability and reproducibility of the private debt-financed consumer boom that house price inflation has generated. In the process it draws attention to the increasingly differentiated character of both government inflationary preferences and counter-inflationary performance—with the shift to official measures of inflation that exclude mortgage interest repayments and, in the UK at least, to the covert re-politicisation of monetary policy. It concludes by suggesting that governments may well not have time-inconsistent inflationary preferences so much as sectorally specific inflationary preferences. This might be summarised in terms of the aphorism: 'retail price inflation bad, house price inflation good'.     

菲律宾比索的汇率走势及成因探析

亚洲金融危机后,菲律宾以低汇率促进经济复苏,之后由于美国经济衰退、国际油价持续飙升以及菲不安定的国内因素,比索一路走低.在世界经济逐渐好转和菲经济改革形成良好预期的带动下,比索在2006年表现出强烈的反弹,其后便升势不断.近期全球性金融危机摧毁了菲律宾的美好前景,美国经济不振影响菲对外出口是菲律宾陷入衰退的重要原因,菲面临的国内外环境更加复杂,高通胀、高失业率、高贫困率都将促使比索未来一段时期内持续呈现跌势.     

汇率的政治经济学--基于中美关于人民币汇率争论的研究

时至今日,经济学理论尚不能对一国汇率水平及其变动提供完美的解释.对汇率的纯经济学分析固然有其重要意义,但是从相当程度上讲,一国的汇率,尤其是大国的汇率,则是由现实中的各种政治经济因素及其互动决定的.本文以最近一段时期中美之间关于人民币汇率的争论为背景,力求说明,在一国内部,汇率是相关利益集团和拥有特定政治经济政策目标的政府之间相互博弈的结果;而在国际上,汇率则是大国实现或巩固有利于己的世界经济政治安排的一个重要工具,国际汇率体系所反映的实乃国际政治的权力结构.本文旨在借助对利率的政治经济学分析,来深化对汇率形成及国际关系的理解.     

Gorton and the Re‐Making of Political Tradition in Foreign Investment Policy

This article examines the Gorton government's tentative, but significant role in reshaping Australia's approach to overseas investment, focusing on the role of the Prime Minister himself. Prime Minister Gorton and his Cabinet ultimately accepted the need to pursue a more overt form of economic nationalism for political gain. This provided a basis for subsequent governments to offer more direct, national government intervention in foreign investment decision‐making to the Australian polity. Historical accounts and more recent assessments are drawn on to make this case and point to the legacy of Gorton and his government in the political management of foreign investment in Australia. The approach to foreign investment that emerged during Gorton's government demonstrated to subsequent governments the worth of developing a calibrated response that appeared to address populist concerns while still enabling substantive and increasing investment inflows.     

从危害国家安全到彻底淡化--印尼对中国外交政策中华人问题因素的转变(1965-1998)

1955年万隆会议之后 ,印尼与中国的关系飞跃发展 ,以 1956年 9月 30日苏加诺总统前往北京进行首次国事访问达到最高点。 196 5年印尼在马来西亚成为联合国安理会非常任理事国之后 ,宣布退出联合国。此举也增加了印尼在国际舞台上的外交孤立。但是 ,雅加达与北京之间的联盟却因此而确定[1] 。苏加诺在总统任期内共三次访问中国 ,而中国国家主席刘少奇、总理周恩来都曾到印尼访问。 196 3年由中国提供资助的新兴力量运动会在雅加达举行 ,大约有 51个国家参加。这是两国共同充分开拓时局的具体合作之一[2 ] 。在 196 5年 8月 17日的国庆节演说…     

从组织行为模式看印尼大规模社交限制政策中的中央与地方关系

面对新冠肺炎疫情,印尼政府推出了大规模社交限制政策,其显著特点是中央和地方政府共同参与防疫.印尼地方政府在这项政策的出台与实施阶段扮演着怎样的角色?中央政府与地方政府间存在怎样的联动关系?这些都可以运用艾利森提出的政府决策组织行为模式进行分析.在大规模社交限制政策的出台与实施过程中,印尼中央政府各部门、中央政府与地方政府组织的行动均相互关联,各部门间存在显著的联动关系.这种联动关系的存在以及印尼的地方自治制度使地方政府可以通过变通执行、制定特殊政策、进行反馈等方式影响中央政府的政策内容及最终实施效果.随着地方自治制度下地方政府职能的加强,作为中央政府的基层组织,地方政府不再只是机械地执行中央政府政策的工具,而是所在地区社会服务的主要提供者.     

在印尼发现历史--评范·勒尔《印尼的贸易与社会》

范·勒尔在《印尼的贸易与社会》一书中,第一次运用韦伯式社会学和经济史理论与方法来分析早期印尼及亚洲的贸易与社会,以广阔的视野对东西方贸易作了比较研究.他力图打破当时在西方广为流行的欧洲中心观,主张从亚洲自身来观察当地的经济和文化发展,提出每个地区都有着自身的不能为别的文明所取代的文明,同时各个文明之间有平等的价值和地位,从而为印尼及整个东方历史的重新解释找到新的途径.     

菲律宾与印尼军人政治参与的比较

印度尼西亚与菲律宾是有着相似历史和相同政体的东南亚国家,军人在政治生活中起着重要作用是两国政治的共同特点.但由于国家独立过程和两国文化等的差异,两国军人政治又呈现出不同的发展态势.本文主要分三个历史阶段对两国军人政治参与进行比较分析,并对军人干政的共性进行了总结.     

印尼爪哇岛印度教神庙研究

印度教在东南亚的古代史中扮演了非常重要的角色,国内学术界对这个问题的研究主要集中在宏观层面,对微观的文化现象的研究一直不够深入.在实地考察的基础上,本文以爪哇岛的印度教神庙作为研究对象,通过对比中爪哇的普兰班南神庙和东爪哇的加维神庙在建筑风格上的异同点,阐述爪哇岛印度教神庙的建筑特点.     

Indonesia and the West: an Ambivalent,Misunderstood Engagement*

The relationship between Indonesia and the West has always been deeply ambivalent. On the one hand, Indonesia, since it began its search for modernity a century or so ago, has always felt a deep attraction for things Western, which promised technological mastery and economic success which might overcome the humiliation of colonial subjection. On the other hand, Indonesians were wary that any engagement that ran too deep and uncritically might prejudice their own specific sense of identity. That ambivalence was deepened and consolidated by Indonesia's own failure to develop and deepen the legitimacy, both domestic and international, of the state that its leaders had created as the vehicle of becoming modern. As a result, Indonesia's engagement with the West remained uncertain in style and often characterised by the unhelpful stridency that issues from insecurity.     

Islam in Indonesia: Its History,Development and Future Challenges

In Indonesian history, Islamic groups have always played an important political role. Jusuf Wanandi, co-founder of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta, states that most of these groups are moderate, tolerant and democratic. In the past few years, however, radical and extreme groups of Muslims have emerged and to some degree have set the agenda in the country with their extreme political interpretation of Islam. The depth of political and economic crises, and the weakness of the national government to resolve the crises have complicated the positive development of Islam in Indonesia. This is the biggest challenge facing young Muslim leaders. If they should succeed, which is quite likely, Indonesia's Islam could become the model for political Islam around the world. Wanandi concludes that this will be Indonesia's biggest contribution against global terrorism.     

Indonesia and the implementation of the bogor goals

At APEC’s second “summit” meeting, in November 1994, President Suharto of Indonesia steered the leaders of the eighteen member countries, or territories, to accept the vision of “free trade in the region” by 2020, with the developed economies achieving the goal by 2010. Six months later, Indonesia introduced a package of liberalization measures that combined its commitments in ASEAN, the Uruguay Round agreements, and the APEC process. It has hoped thereby to show others what might be done to achieve “the Bogor goals.” Arifin M. Siregar, the Indonesian ambassador to the United States, was Indonesia’s minister of trade in 1988–1993. He was previously governor of the Bank of Indonesia (1983–1988). Before joining the bank as an executive director in 1971, Dr. Siregar was an economic affairs officer at the United Nations, New York (1961–1963); an economic officer at the United Nations, Beirut, Lebanon (1963–1965); and a senior economist at the International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC (1965–1971).