Robberies with guns: Neighborhood factors and the nature of crime

Over the past two decades, both research and policy related to crime have increasingly focused on community characteristics. Neighborhood level studies of crime have provided important insights into the factors related to variation in the quantity of crime across place, and have suggested policies for controlling crime. At the same time, however, little attention has been given to the potential impact of neighborhood characteristics on the nature, or quality, of crime. Examinations of variation in the nature of violent crime across communities has only recently begun to be empirically examined (see for example, Baumer, Horney, Felson, & Lauritsen, 2003; Kubrin, 2003; Kubrin & Wadsworth, 2003; Kubrin & Weitzer, 2003; Miles-Doan, 1998; Wadsworth & Kubrin, 2004), and these studies were limited in the number and type of neighborhood variables examined. The current study extended this developing literature on neighborhood variation in the nature of violence through its examination of several neighborhood factors theorized to be associated with qualitatively different forms of violence. Specifically, this study examined neighborhood variables associated with a structurally induced subculture of violence in relation to robberies with and without guns. The analysis was based on noncommercial robberies that occurred in twenty-nine neighborhoods in one city. Findings suggested that faith in the police was a more important neighborhood factor affecting the nature of robbery than disadvantage, the percent young African-American males, or oppositional values.     

Police crackdowns on illegal gun carrying: a systematic review of their impact on gun crime

This paper presents a systematic review of the impact of police strategies to reduce illegal possession and carrying of firearms on gun crime, including directed patrols, monitoring of probationers and parolees, weapon reporting hotlines, and others. Four studies met the inclusion criteria, reporting a total of seven nonrandomized tests of directed patrols focused on gun carrying in three American cities (five tests) and two Colombian cities (two tests). Six of the seven tests (not all of which were independent) suggest that directed patrols reduced gun crime in high-crime places at high-risk times. However, conclusions and generalizations must be qualified based on the small number of studies, variability in study design and analytic strategy across the studies, preintervention differences between intervention and comparison areas, and limited data regarding factors such as implementation, crime displacement, and long-term impact.Although the protocol for this review was registered and approved by the Campbell Collaboration Crime and Justice Group (), this paper represents an independent effort of the authors and has not been reviewed by the Campbell Collaboration. Evan Mayo-Wilson conducted research for this project while he was Coordinator of the Campbell Crime and Justice Group at the University of Pennsylvania's Jerry Lee Center of Criminology and a student at the Fels Institute of Government.     

Linking arson incidents on the basis of crime scene behavior

The present study investigated the possibility of statistically linking arson cases based on consistency of behaviors from one crime scente to another. Serial and spree arson cases were studied to differentiate underlying themes and to link cases committed by the same offender. The material consisted of 248 arson cases which formed 42 series of arsons. A content analysis using 45 dichotomous variables was carried out and principal compnents (PCA) analysis was performed to identify underlying themes. Summary scores reflecting the themes were calculated. Linking effectiveness was tested with a discriminant analysis using the summary scores. The PCA analysis was successful and underlying themes which were in accordance with previous studies could be identified. Six factors were retained, in the PCA. The linking of the arson cases was possible to a satisfactory level: 33% of the cases could be correctly linked and for over 50% of the cases, the series they actually belonged to was among the ten series identified as most probable on the basis of the linking analysis. From a practical point of view, the results could be used as a basis for developing support systems for police investigations of arson. This research was financially supported by the Finnish Ministry of Interior and by Grant 54456 from the Academy of Finland.     

The accuracy of crime statistics: assessing the impact of police data bias on geographic crime analysis

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Police-recorded crimes are used by police forces to document community differences in crime and design spatially targeted strategies. Nevertheless, crimes...     

Measuring the impact of law enforcement on organized crime

This article explores the possibility of measuring the impact of law enforcement on organized crime in a reliable and accountable manner, both in general terms and with a practical focus on the Canadian context. In considering measures to combat organized crime, a focus on process measurement has obscured the more substantial question of progress as regards the dependent variable itself: the bottom line of reducing the impact of organized criminal behaviour. While outcome measures are more challenging to identify than process measures, this fact alone does not minimize the need to demonstrate the connection between organized crime enforcement and its presumed outcomes to a greater degree of certainty. To date, this has not been realized to any significant degree, as revealed by a review of existing international approaches to measuring the impact of enforcement activity. The article argues that a multidisciplinary focus on community level indicators of crime, if initially less accessible than process measures of impact on organized crime groups, offers promise as a measurement of absolute and relative impact of state investment in enforcement.

Asian transnational organized crime and its impact on the United States: Developing a transnational crime research agenda

Undertaken on behalf of the National Institute of Justice between July 2003 and August 2004, the research goals of this study were to (a) determine high priority areas for research on Asian transnational organized crime (TOC); (b) assess the impact of Asian TOC on the United States; (3) identify relevant data and information sources in Asia; and (4) identify potential collaborative research partners and institutions in Asia. The aim was thus not to examine in detail the organized crime situation in this region, but rather to lay the foundation for a research agenda and strategy that would accomplish that purpose. In seeking to achieve this aim, the researchers used a variety of techniques as part of an overall exploratory methodology. They included four months of interviews (andfield observations) with experts in eight Asian sites, including law enforcement officials, policymakers, and scholars, as well as American officials in each site. Meetings were also held with Asian crime experts in the United States. Interviews and site visits were supplemented with surveys and analyses done by local Asian researchers, an analysis of U.S. indictments, and the review of a large volume of literature. The sites covered by this research are China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia. The major findings are first, that there is little consensus among the Asian authorities on just wliat their main organized crime problems are. Whereas the Asian authorities give higher priority to traditional organized crimes, e.g., gambling, extortion, prostitution, etc., the American authorities focus more on transnational crimes. Consistent with this view, Asian authorities do not see much linkage between the local or regional crime groups about which they are most concerned, and transnational organized crime. Next, contrary to the views and expectations of some American authorities, the commonly expressed view among the respondents in this study is that there is no collaboration or linkage between transnational organized crime groups and terrorists. Finally, the transnational organized crime networks operating in the region are said to be highly specialized, with any overlapping of criminal activities occurring mostly at the level of transportation of goods or people. It is recommended that future collaborative research efforts focus on trafficking in women and children, human smuggling, and drug production and trafficking. These are likely to continue to have the most impact upon the United States and upon U.S. interests in the region. It is further recommended that these research efforts be both bi-lateral (principally with China) and multi-lateral in nature. A wide variety of potentially willing research partners are identified and their strengths and weaknesses are assessed. Finally, a specific strategy for accomplishing the research agenda is proposed. Support for this research was provided by TDL# 1700-215 from the National Institute of Justice. The opinions are those of the authors and do not reflect the policies or views of the National Institute of Justice.     

The impact of the wilson administration on economic crime rates

Previous research, based upon the interrupted time-series analysis of monthly data, has demonstrated that changes in the organizational structure of police departments produce short-term changes in the level of reported crime. The present study extends this literature by examining the independent effects of a change in hierarchical control (i.e., the appointment of O. W. Wilson as the new chief of the Chicago Police Department) and changes, over time, in the ecological structure of Chicago on reported rates of economic crime. The multivariate analyses indicate that the failure to take into account organizational change leads to model specification error. We conclude that longitudinal, within-jurisdictional research, based on the analysis of UCR data, must take into account changes in police bureaucracies that can affect the production of official counts of crime.     

Estimating the impact of an integrated CCTV program on crime

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Prior research has identified that CCTV cameras play some role in deterring crime in public places. However, increasingly, CCTV surveillance is being...     

Assessing the impact of casino gambling on crime in Mississippi

The introduction of legalized gambling into a community has generated a great deal of hubris regarding concomitant criminality. While Las Vegas has long been synonymous with organized crime, the recent focus has been on the connection between traditional crime and legalized gambling. The conventional wisdom among opponents of this new source of revenue is that casinos attract many undesirables to the community, thereby increasing crime and social disorganization. Routine activities theory would suggest that with increased numbers of tourists, more opportunities for crime will exist. To test this proposition, the frequency of crime before and after the introduction of legalized gambling in Biloxi, Mississippi was examined. Larcey-theft and motor vehicle theft were the only categories of crime to show statistically significant change. Robbery and aggravated assault increased, while murder and rape declined, although the change was not statistically significant for any category of violent crime.     

The Impact of the Boston Marathon Bombings on Public Willingness to Cooperate with Police

While a key to law enforcement success is the willingness of the public to cooperate with police, we have limited understanding of how terrorist attacks affect this public readiness. Prior research suggests that terrorist attacks might increase citizen cooperation with police through both prevention efforts and rally effects. We test these assertions with three nationally representative surveys on respondents’ willingness to help police combat terrorism: one before the Boston Marathon bombings and two after. As predicted, public willingness to report suspicious behavior to police increases significantly following the bombings and there is evidence that these increases generalize to ordinary crime. We also find that knowledge of key counter terrorism programs increases after the bombings, effects are somewhat stronger for the New England area than other regions, and the strength of the results are greatly diminished 16 months after the attacks. Conclusions are similar for both panel and cross-sectional analyses.     

Sexual crime and place: The impact of the environmental context on sexual assault outcomes

Purpose

Using the rational choice perspective, the current study investigates the impact that the environment and offending behavior have on serial sexual crime event outcomes.

Methods

The effects of time and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, on sexual crime event outcomes are tested using Generalized Estimating Equations on a sample of 361 crime events committed by 72 serial sex offenders.

Results

Time and place do impact serial stranger sexual offenders’ modus operandi strategies, but the place characteristics of the crime have more of an effect on the offender’s behavior than do the temporal conditions during which the event occurs. Subsequent analyses indicate that temporal and place factors, as well as offender modus operandi strategies, predict whether the offender completes the rape, his reaction to victim resistance, and the level of physical force that he inflicts on the victim, but not whether the victim is forced to commit sexual acts on the offender.

Conclusions

Serial stranger sexual offenders are effective decision-makers who adapt their strategies to the physical environment in which they commit their crimes, but their degree of rationality can vary as some outcomes are more dependent on the context than the offender and his actions.     

An assessment of the impact of quality-of-life policing on crime and disorder

In this paper we examine the impact of quality-of-life policing on crime and disorder. Specifically, we examine a quality-of-life initiative conducted by the Chandler, Arizona Police Department, which was grounded in an operational strategy of policing social and physical disorder. Using data on calls for service, we employ an interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effect of the intervention on 10 offense categories within the overall target area and within four zones that constitute the target area. The findings suggest that the quality-of-life initiative exerted the strongest effect on two categories of crime and disorder: public morals and physical disorder. Diffusion of benefit and displacement effects were also observed in nearby areas. We discuss the implications of the findings for policy makers and researchers.     

Estimating the probability of local crime clusters: The impact of immediate spatial neighbors

Purpose

To investigate the importance of immediate spatial neighbors when investigating local crime patterns.

Methods

Local indicators of spatial association are used to identify local crime clusters. The classification scheme of these local crime clusters is then modeled in a multinomial logistic regression.

Results

The results show that immediate spatial neighbors are important for understanding local crime patterns. Though (positive) spatial autocorrelation has long been known to be present with crime data, this analysis suggests that negative spatial autocorrelation (if present) has a significantly different implication. Generally speaking, when predicting a local crime cluster type, the immediate spatial neighbors are more important for correct prediction. As such, a low local crime area that is surrounded by high crime areas presents itself as a high crime area in the regression results.

Conclusions

Therefore, efforts to understand the criminal nature of an area must not consider that area in isolation.     

Modeling the longitudinal impact of legal sanctions on narcotics use and property crime

Structural equation models are used to confirm the suppressive effects of legal sanctions, e.g., probation and parole, on narcotics use and property crime. Both concurrent and longitudinal effects of legal sanctions are tested within two different models, which together span the entire addiction career. The findings indicate that (1) the suppressive effects of legal sanctions are evident only when legal sanctions are operationalized as parole or probation officer contact where urine monitoring is utilized; (2) only concurrent suppressive effects are statistically significant, and longitudinal suppressive effects are not; (3) both narcotics use and property crime are suppressed by legal sanctions, although the latter is less responsive than the former to intervention by the criminal justice system; and (4) suppressive effects tend to be more pronounced later in the addiction career. The significance of the findings and the implications for criminological theory related to issues regarding surveillance effects are emphasized.     

The impact of local alcohol ordinances on official crime rates: The case of Tennessee

Past research has shown a strong link between alcohol and crime. In this study we examine the relationship between local alcohol ordinances and UCR crime rates for cities within the state of Tennessee. To assess adequately the actual relationship between crime and our alcohol availability measures, we included in the analysis a number of socioeconomic and demographic variables commonly associated with high crime rates. The results of this study suggest strongly that race, poverty, population size, and age composition provide the “best explanation” for variations in the level of criminal activity. Our findings support the hypothesis that social disorganization caused by numerous factors (especially racial and economic inequality) contribute strongly to a community's crime rate. The alcohol-related variables contribute to our understanding of the crime problem, but their impact is secondary and probably ancillary, once we have accounted for the influence of our demographic and socioeconomic variables.     

The impact of racial slurs and racism on the perceptions and punishment of violent crime

When a crime is committed by an individual of one race against an individual of another race, there is the possibility that the crime is a hate crime. Legislation often mandates harsher penalties for perpetrators convicted of crimes determined to be hate crimes, yet this determination is difficult to make. This study used vignettes of violent crimes to examine how the races of the perpetrators and victims, the severity of the assault, and the use of racial slurs by the perpetrators would affect perceptions of the crimes as "hate crimes," victim blaming, and sentencing recommendations. Results showed that each of these factors affected participants' perceptions and punishments of violent crime. Participants' levels of racism were an additional factor. These results contribute to the understanding of how crimes in which the perpetrator's and victim's races differ are perceived.     

Routine crime in exceptional times: The impact of the 2002 Winter Olympics on citizen demand for police services

Despite their rich theoretical and practical importance, criminologists have paid scant attention to the patterns of crime and the responses to crime during exceptional events. Throughout the world large-scale political, social, economic, cultural, and sporting events have become commonplace. Natural disasters such as blackouts, hurricanes, tornadoes, and tsunamis present similar opportunities. Such events often tax the capacities of jurisdictions to provide safety and security in response to the exceptional event, as well as to meet the “routine” public safety needs. This article examines “routine” crime as measured by calls for police service, official crime reports, and police arrests in Salt Lake City before, during, and after the 2002 Olympic Games. The analyses suggest that while a rather benign demographic among attendees and the presence of large numbers of social control agents might have been expected to decrease calls for police service for minor crime, it actually increased in Salt Lake during this period. The implications of these findings are considered for theories of routine activities, as well as systems capacity.     

Legitimacy invariance and campus crime: the impact of campus police legitimacy in different reporting contexts

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether campus police legitimacy relevance varies across different crime contexts. 519 respondents from 31 undergraduate sections at a public university rated campus police legitimacy as well as their willingness to report a campus crime to the public safety department. Students were assigned to different crime vignettes, involving experimental manipulation of crime type: petty theft, indecent exposure, aggravated assault, and gun possession on a college campus. Results indicate general support for the procedural justice model, specifically the invariance of the influence of legitimacy on reporting. This paper argues for increased specificity in measurement of cooperation beyond general willingness to assist, or a single crime context.     

The impact of adult drug courts on crime and incarceration: findings from a multi-site quasi-experimental design

Objectives  

To test the impact of adult drug courts on future criminal behavior and sentence length on the precipitating criminal case; and to examine whether the magnitude of the drug court impact varies based on drug use or criminal history, social ties, mental health, or offender demographics.