俄罗斯遭受的恐怖袭击目标类型变化分析

俄罗斯自独立以来,恐怖袭击时有发生,已经成为恐怖主义事件的高发区。运用SPSS数据统计软件,对全球恐怖主义事件数据库中俄罗斯1991—2010年所遭受恐怖袭击数据进行统计分析,我们可以找到一些恐怖分子选择袭击目标的规律,这对我国防范和打击恐怖主义活动有借鉴意义。     

自杀式恐怖袭击透视

过去的20余年里,世界上许多饱受恐怖主义危害的国家都不同程度地面临着自杀式恐怖袭击的威胁。土耳其、斯里兰卡、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦等国家的激进分子都把自杀式袭击作为恐怖手段,攻击各种人们可能聚集的目标,以制造最大程度的杀伤和震撼。一、自杀式袭击的现象描述(一)自杀式袭     

阿富汗教派恐怖袭击及其影响

2011年12月6日,阿富汗爆发了针对什叶派穆斯林的大规模恐怖袭击,造成数百人伤亡。美国已正式启动撤军进程,但阿富汗安全形势恶化势头仍未扭转。教派冲突抬头将给阿富汗增加新的不确定因素。     

当前国际恐怖与反恐斗争的特点与趋势

当前国际恐怖势力仍呈蔓延之势,国际恐怖活动与伊拉克、阿富汗等地区热点相互作用,使国际反恐斗争形势更加严峻。美国、欧盟、俄罗斯等不断调整各自的反恐战略与措施,国际反恐合作继续加强,并取得了一定进展,但国际反恐合作分歧犹存,反恐斗争将长期化、复杂化。     

反恐国际法及其建设情况

“9·11”恐怖袭击事件后,面对危害越来越大的恐怖主义,国际社会多次举行反恐合作会议,力求从理论上对恐怖主义的界定达成共识,并建立和完善国际反恐法规,加大对国际恐怖主义的打击力度。     

印度反恐怖主义法浅析

自独立以来,印度就深受恐怖主义之苦,是世界上受恐怖主义活动危害最严重的国家之一。随着全球一体化进程的不断深入和扩展,印度面临的反恐形势和任务开始多样化和复杂化。2001年“9·11”事件后,印度积极响应美国在全球范围内掀起的反对恐怖主义的斗争,虽然印美之间在反恐问题上也存有分歧,但总体而言,印度给人的感觉仍然是过于迎合美国,帮助“打造美国领导的反恐联盟”。     

美国反恐政策的演变

自20世纪六七十年代以来,美国反恐政策经历了从早期否定性威慑到里根时期惩罚性威慑及至后冷战时期预防性攻击的演变.美国反恐行动的力度虽然日渐加大,但它面临的反恐任务依然艰巨.     

加拿大渥太华枪击恐怖袭击案评析

2014年10月22日,加拿大首都渥太华发生严重枪击恐怖袭击案,造成一名士兵和一名袭击者丧生。加警方调查表明,袭击者是受中东极端组织“伊斯兰国”极端思想蛊惑而作案。此次枪击案发生前两天,加拿大魁北克省蒙特利尔刚刚发生一起与“伊斯兰国”有关的恐怖袭击案,一周内接连发生两起恐袭案,这在加拿大历史上前所未有。随着“伊斯兰国”实力的不断增长与野心膨胀,其对美欧国家本土威胁愈发凸显;美欧国家反恐战略面临新调整,其未来反恐之路将更趋艰难曲折。     

试析恐怖主义问题对中国外交的影响

以“9.11”事件为标志,国际恐怖主义活动进入新阶段。恐怖主义以其复杂性和国际性深刻地影响着国际关系,成为影响国际形势发展的重要变数。恐怖主义活动与中国有着历史和现实的联系,使中国外部安全环境面临着新的威胁,危害国家安全的不确定因素增多。国际反恐合作使中国改善和充实了大国外交,调整和巩固了周边关系,在国际社会中提升了国家形象和影响力。在应对海外中国公民遭遇恐怖袭击问题时体现了中国“外交为民”的新理念。     

东南亚恐怖主义新态势及其影响与中国的应对

近年来,随着国际恐怖主义形势的变化,尤其是“伊斯兰国”遭受重创后的演变及发展,东南亚地区恐怖主义发展呈现出一些新的发展态势,东南亚首现城市大规模恐怖袭击事件,地区恐怖势力的跨国整合联动及域内外恐怖势力的合流、共振与滋生新的恐怖活动,地区部分国家的国内冲突加剧给予国际恐怖势力更多介入空间,回流恐怖分子引发系列问题以及网络恐怖主义威胁的上升等。东南亚恐怖主义新态势给东南亚地区的安全稳定带来威胁,也给中国尤其是西南边境省份的安全、稳定与发展带来严重威胁。在此背景下,中国需关注东南亚地区的恐怖主义新态势,进一步增强与东南亚国家的政治互信,凝聚反恐合作共识,加快构建与东南亚国家的反恐合作专门机制,增强中国在东南亚地区国际反恐合作中的作用,提升边境省份参与东南亚地区反恐合作的能力,加强对中国在东南亚地区的人员及投资等海外利益的保护,有效遏制东南亚恐怖主义发展及阻断国际恐怖势力经东南亚向中国渗透。     

对美国遭受恐怖主义袭击的分析与思考

美国是当今世界最强大的国家,但也是遭受恐怖主义袭击最多的国家.美国的中东政策是导致自已成为恐怖主义袭击目标的最主要原因.对于恐怖主义的袭击,美国仅仅用武力报复和军事打击是无济于事的,而应该反思并调整其对热点地区、特别是对中东地区的政策.     

Preventing Terrorist Attacks on ＂Soft＂ Targets

Assaults on ＂soft＂ targets are increasing. Since terrorists choose location precisely because of the strong possibility of fatalities and injuries to a mass of unwitting people, counterterrorism strategists must diligently plan to prevent these intensive attacks. As compared to military guards and trained security forces, shoppers and hotel guests are more likely to be paralyzed with confusion in a comprehensive assault by a small group of individuals who have practiced coordinated moves for months. This essay probes the rationale behind the attacks and threatened attacks, and surveys prevention and countermeasures adopted in some countries.     

Why Violence Abates: Imposed and Elective Declines in Terrorist Attacks

Previous scholarship on variations in violence within a given terrorist organization has primarily focused on factors that lead to the inception or destruction of that organization. However, violence varies substantially even during the “prime” of an organization's life. This article aims to understand why violence varies in the short term within many organizations, and places a special focus on declines in violence. Specifically, I argue that terrorists face countervailing incentives in terms of how much violence to use, and that when declines in violent activity do occur, they can be divided into two types: a) elective declines, which are usually temporary and used for organizational or reputational recovery; and b) imposed declines, which are dictated by changes in the relative capability of an organization, and are more likely to be permanent. The causal pathways to each type of decline are discussed, and a plausibility probe, consisting of case studies of three terrorist organizations, is then developed to substantiate this theory. The findings have notable implications for counterterrorism policy, as they illustrate not only when and why terrorists choose to curtail violent attacks, but also the conditions that determine whether declines in violence are temporary or permanent.     

The Strategic Logic of Credit Claiming: A New Theory for Anonymous Terrorist Attacks

In theory, terrorism is a political communication strategy for groups to convey their grievances and the costs of ignoring them. In practice, though, terrorist groups take responsibility for just a small portion of their attacks. Rather than getting credit for the violence, terrorist leaders generally deny their operatives committed it. This theoretical and empirical disconnect may explain why scholars have ignored the subject of unclaimed attacks despite these being the norm. With a mixed-methods research design, our study helps to fill this lacuna by proposing and testing a new theory to help account for variation in which attacks are claimed.     

Terrorism and Public Opinion: The Effects of Terrorist Attacks on the Popularity of the President of the United States

This article uses a large-n dataset to investigate the effect of terrorist attacks with American victims on the popularity of the U.S. president. The study uses two broad theoretical frameworks to analyze this effect, the score-keeping framework and the rally-effect framework. The findings of the study show that, when excluding the effect from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, actual terrorist attacks have no generalizable short-term impact on the popularity of the U.S. president. This indicates that even though the topics of national security, terrorism, and the president’s ability to handle these issues are important in the political debate in the United States, actual terrorism has little or no short-term impact on presidential approval ratings.     

非洲的非法军火贸易及其影响

冷战结束以来 ,在商业利益的驱动下 ,世界上一些国家、军火公司、犯罪集团采取多种方式 ,将大量军火非法地运到非洲 ,导致非洲非法军火贸易泛滥 ;加剧并延长了非洲的部族冲突与战争 ;恶化了非冲突国家的社会环境 ;影响了国际社会的裁军进程 ;助长了国际恐怖主义活动 ,也严重影响到国际和平与安全。尽管国际社会为限制非洲的非法军火贸易作了不少努力 ,但效果微乎其微 ,非洲的非法军火贸易依然十分猖獗。     

Groupthink and Terrorist Radicalization

Why do groups adopt terrorism? Major theories of terrorist radicalization assume it to be a rational process whereby groups select terrorism as the policy most likely to advance their goals. Not all terrorism is rational, however, and these theories cannot explain cases when groups pursue terrorism despite it being self-defeating. We distinguish between rational and irrational terrorism, and explain the latter using social psychology's groupthink mechanism. Although terrorists are widely assumed to be vulnerable to groupthink, empirical work on the phenomenon has focused overwhelmingly on decision-making by national executives. We firmly establish the link between groupthink and terrorist radicalization by tracing groupthink's operation through the development of the Weather Underground, an American terrorist group that emerged in the late 1960s and conducted six years of bombings against the U.S. government. All of the antecedent conditions, symptoms, and decision-making defects predicted by groupthink are evident in the Weather Underground, providing valuable evidence of the dangers of irrational radicalization and offering lessons for its prevention.     

俄罗斯外交文化的特点及影响

俄罗斯由于其具有欧亚结合部的文明和地缘特点 ,因此 ,拥有十分独特的外交文化 ,即 :西方化和东方情结 ,不安全感和扩张、大国意识 ,意识形态和历史使命感 ,均势外交和强权。冷战后 ,国际环境、实力、地缘环境的变化 ,俄罗斯的外交文化受到很大冲击 ,给俄罗斯外交政策烙上了时代印记     

论万隆会议及其影响

万隆会议是亚非国家第一次摆脱新老殖民主义的控制,讨论和解决自己重大问题的会议。会议倡导的万隆精神和通过的“亚非会议十项原则”是十分重要的,至今仍闪耀着真理的光辉。会议的影响重大而深远:推进了第三世界的形成;推动世界民族独立运动更快地走上胜利的道路;促进发展中国家联合自强争取经济独立。