The Cuban Missile Crisis after Sixty Years

The sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis is an appropriate time to review the events—arguably the closest the world has come to nuclear war—from the perspective of 2022. Growing tensions between Moscow and Washington and increasing Cuba emphasis in US domestic politics preceded the confrontation. Analysts differ on motives for placing long-range missiles in Cuba; Soviet officials consistently emphasized the defense of the island. We know now that nuclear war was even closer than realized at the time. This article is a revision of one that appeared in the Winter 2013 issue.     

六十年的历程：北约核战略之演变

北约成立60年来,其核战略的制定与演变始终同北约与美国之间的关系紧紧缠绕在一起。北约核战略与美国核战略之间,既存在相互支持、影响和互动关系,又充斥美国和欧洲盟国之间在安全认识上的矛盾和斗争。美国始终关注“先发制人”的核威慑力,而冷战后欧洲更重视核安全而不是超强的核实力。未来,北约的欧洲核力量将会进一步削减,北约将在核不扩散领域发挥更大的作用。     

中国外交研究60年:进步与前瞻

中国外交研究60年历程可以改革开放为界分为两个阶段.前30年中国外交研究虽有较大的成就,但实际上处于前学科时期.后30年间,受益于改革开放政策,中国外交研究的学术氛围越来越宽松,学术事业长足进展,成果数量大增,学术影响力显著增强.展望未来,中国外交研究需要总结经验、汲取教训、克服各种挑战,以适应中国和平崛起与世界和谐发展的时代要求.     

缅甸民族武装冲突的动力根源

引言缅甸联邦是亚洲最富民族多样性的国家之一,在现代历史上经历了长期的内部民族武装冲突。缅甸联邦作为后殖民时代的现代民族国家,是由前殖民时期独立的民族,即钦族、克钦族、掸族,以及其他来自缅甸本部的民族建立的。这些民族原则上有权各自从英国统治下获得独立,并建立各自的民族国家。然而,它们依据自愿加入、政治平等、邦内事务自治等原则,在1947年2月12日签署了《彬龙协议》,决定建立一个联邦,它们希望在缅甸联邦非集权的体制下实行各邦自治。     

中缅关系60年:发展过程和历史经验

60年来中缅关系提供了发展两国关系的宝贵历史经验,主要是:相邻的地域和密切的民族、经济联系和由此形成的利益攸关的关系是中缅关系的重要特点和广泛、厚实的基础;坚持和平共处五项原则是处理两国关系的基本准则;中缅友好关系和合作水平提高的动力是双方为扩大和实现合作共赢的互动,而在这互动中中国作为大国的对缅合作战略和积极主动极为重要;两国关系的发展趋势是领域越来越广泛、合作水平不断提高,趋向于战略性的合作。尽管缅甸正在积极推行多边外交,但中国对缅甸具有特殊的重要性,巩固、发展和提升两国关系的关键还在于不断巩固与扩大两国的共同利益。     

论中日关系

近年来,中日关系发生了一定程度的恶化.这是日本社会政治右倾化和中日两国实力对比变化的反映.从今后发展趋势看,中日政治关系难以出现根本性变化,经济关系将在复杂的变化中持续发展.从总体看,中日加强睦邻友好和互利合作关系是两国根本利益之所在,双方宜理性思考、慎重处之,以维护中日关系发展大局.     

顺利发展的中俄关系

进入21世纪以来,中俄关系的发展令世界瞩目.从2001年7月两国元首签署<中俄睦邻友好合作条约>到2006年3月俄罗斯总统普京访华,中俄关系几乎每年都要跨上一个新的台阶.在世界大国关系中,中俄关系是发展最为顺利也最为稳定的一对双边关系.两国关系完全建立在联合国宪章和国际关系基本准则的基础上,是冷战后大国关系的典范,也是不同文化、不同文明之间密切交流和友好相处的典范.     

South Atlantic relations: from bilateral trade relations to multilateral coalition building

South Atlantic relations, under the leadership of Brazil and South Africa, have recently received a fresh breath of life. This article provides a general overview of developments and assesses aspects such as preferential trade agreements, multilateral coalition building and security cooperation in the context of South–South relations. The renewed impetus has resulted in improved influence and leverage from less developed Southern countries over the global political and economic agenda. New initiatives that have helped place the leaders of the South at the centre of the decision‐making process have emerged and are widely regarded as viable options for future progress in the developing world. These initiatives, which are driven by the growing strength of South Atlantic relations, are looked at in the broader context, from a practical perspective where tangible results are required over and above the ideals of solidarity to ensure sustainable socioeconomic development.     

对中美关系的一些思考

中美关系是世界上最重要的双边关系,其动向不仅涉及两国利益,而且也关系到亚洲乃至全球的稳定与和平.     

中美关系中的俄罗斯因素

国内政治与对外政策具有极大的关联性。中国的对外战略也深受国内政治因素的影响。从1979年中美建交以来,在中美俄三角关系框架下,中国的外交战略可划分为四个阶段。第一阶段(1979～1989):以苏联为共同对手、没有经济联系的中美安全准同盟;第二阶段(1989～1991):失去了共同对手的、失效的中美准同盟;第三阶段(1991年12月～2001年9月):经济基础不足的中俄准准同盟;第四阶段(2001年九一一事件后至今):中国平行发展与俄美关系,实行双向合作战略。中俄之间准准结盟关系主要体现在地区与国际事务合作、军事关系和部分政治关系,但并不意味着结成反美联盟。中美经贸、文化、知识联系非常密切,但政治、军事互信水平不高,也不可能形成G2集团。由于国内政治的复杂性,国内利益的多元化和多样性,中国平行发展与俄、美的关系,双向合作,良性互动,争取国家利益的最大化。     

Afghan refugees in Indo-Afghan relations

When Afghans started fleeing abroad in the aftermath of the Saur Revolution of April 1978, Pakistan and Iran were the main countries of destination, but some Afghans also fled to India. This article offers new insights into one under-studied aspect of Indo-Afghan relations: population movements. What place have Afghan refugees occupied in Indo-Afghan relations (both formal and informal) from the Saur Revolution to the present? This article examines the specific situation of Afghan refugees in India, the general context of Indo-Afghan relations and India's ad hoc policy towards Afghan refugees, which all help explain the place occupied by Afghan refugees in Indo-Afghan relations.     

North Korea's foreign economic relations

Many debates about engagement with North Korea hinge on theprecise nature of North Korea's foreign economic relations:whether trade and investment are on commercial or non-commercialterms; the extent of illicit activities, and the changing geographicpatterns of North Korea's trade. This article provides an effortto reconstruct North Korea's foreign economic relations, subordinatingour estimates to the discipline of the balance of payments accountingframework. Among the most salient findings for the debate aboutengagement and sanctions is that North Korea's trade and investmenthave continued to increase despite the onset of the nuclearcrisis and a decline in illicit activities. This growth hasoccurred in part because of the growing weight of China andSouth Korea in trade, aid, and investment. We also find thateconomic relations between North and South Korea have a substantiallygreater non-commercial component than those occurring acrossthe China–North Korea border. Received for publication November 29, 2007. Accepted for publication April 7, 2008.     

Pragmatism's contributions to international relations

This article examines the methodological and substantive contributions that pragmatism stands to make in the field of international relations (IR) theory. The methodological advantages that pragmatism offers have been described by many scholars in recent years, but the substantive contributions that classical American pragmatists (1870–1930) made to the study of international order have been largely overlooked. It suggests that a careful reading of this philosophical canon, particularly the writings of Charles Sanders Peirce and Josiah Royce, will provide important resources for today's IR theorist.     

欧盟的困惑与中欧关系

近一年来,欧盟各种矛盾充分显露,陷入凝聚力下降和一体化进程停滞的困境.其前进方向不明、法德"火车头"作用锐降、经济增长乏力和美国的掣肘是影响欧盟发展的几大症结.欧盟要克服难题、摆脱困境绝非易事.它不太可能照原先设想的思路和方式进行整合,而必须进行改革.以"多种速度"和"多种方式"推进一体化可能不失为有效选项.欧盟现状可能对中欧关系带来的不良影响有限.总体看,中欧关系前景依然大有可为.