Violent victimization among males and economic conditions

Research Summary In this article, we use data from the 1973 to 2005 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to estimate previously unknown trends in serious nonfatal violent victimization for Latino, non-Latino Black, and non-Latino White males in the United States. Past research has shown that Blacks and Latinos have been more susceptible than Whites to financial hardship during economic downturns and that economic disadvantage is an important correlate of violence in cross-sectional analyses. If significant declines in the national economy contribute to increases in violence, then crime trends disaggregated by race and ethnicity should show greater changes among minorities during periods of economic downturn. Although rates of violence have declined for all groups, we find that trends for Latino and Black males are similar and closely follow changes in consumer sentiment. In contrast, trends for White males display fewer fluctuations coinciding with changes in economic conditions. Continued disaggregation shows that these patterns appear primarily in stranger violence and not in violence by known offenders. The patterns also suggest that the association between changing economic conditions and male victimization trends might have weakened in recent years. Policy Implications The findings raise concerns about the potential impact of recent economic changes on the risk for serious victimization, particularly among Blacks and Latinos. In light of the possible recent weakening of the relationship between economic changes and crime, future research should assess whether criminal justice policies and other factors moderate the relationship between economic conditions and victimization and use group-specific measures of violence so that important variability across race and ethnicity is not masked. These analyses also should be expanded to consider the potential effects on violence of government policies designed to alleviate poverty and unemployment.     

Race, economic inequality, and violent crime

The current study used data drawn from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the census to investigate the relationship between indicators of interracial and intraracial economic inequality and violent crime rates, including White-on-Black, White-on-White, Black-on-White, and Black-on-Black offenses. Multivariate regression results for ninety-one cities showed that while total inequality and intraracial inequality had no significant association with offending rates, interracial inequality was a strong predictor of the overall violent crime rate and the Black-on-Black crime rate. Overall, these results were interpreted as consistent with J.R. Blau and Blau's (1982) relative deprivation thesis, with secondary support for P.M. Blau's (1977) macrostructural theory of intergroup relations. The findings also helped to clarify the unresolved theoretical issue regarding which reference group was most important in triggering relative deprivation among Blacks. It appeared that prior studies were unable to find support for the relative deprivation thesis for Black crime rates because of data and methodological limitations.     

REASSESSING TRENDS IN BLACK VIOLENT CRIME, 1980–2008: SORTING OUT THE “HISPANIC EFFECT” IN UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS ARRESTS,NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY OFFENDER ESTIMATES,AND U.S. PRISONER COUNTS*

Recent studies suggest a decline in the relative Black effect on violent crime in recent decades and interpret this decline as resulting from greater upward mobility among African Americans during the past several decades. However, other assessments of racial stratification in American society suggest at least as much durability as change in Black social mobility since the 1980s. Our goal is to assess how patterns of racial disparity in violent crime and incarceration have changed from 1980 to 2008. We argue that prior studies showing a shrinking Black share of violent crime might be in error because of reliance on White and Black national crime statistics that are confounded with Hispanic offenders, whose numbers have been increasing rapidly and whose violence rates are higher than that of Whites but lower than that of Blacks. Using 1980–2008 California and New York arrest data to adjust for this “Hispanic effect” in national Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) data, we assess whether the observed national decline in racial disparities in violent crime is an artifact of the growth in Hispanic populations and offenders. Results suggest that little overall change has occurred in the Black share of violent offending in both UCR and NCVS estimates during the last 30 years. In addition, racial imbalances in arrest versus incarceration levels across the index violent crimes are both small and comparably sized across the study period. We conclude by discussing the consistency of these findings with trends in economic and social integration of Blacks in American society during the past 50 years.     

RACE-SPECIFIC EMPLOYMENT CONTEXTS AND RECIDIVISM*

Although much literature has examined macrolevel employment contexts and crime rates and, at the individual level, employment and offending, few studies have examined systematically whether macrolevel employment contexts influence individual-level offending. At the same time, emerging literature on prisoner reentry increasingly underscores the potential importance of the social environment for impeding or facilitating successful transitions back into society. All three avenues of inquiry have emphasized the salience of race-specific and offense-specific effects. This study extends prior work on ecology and offending, employment and crime, and prisoner reentry by examining the race-specific effects of unemployment rates and manufacturing employment rates on violent, property, and drug recidivism. By analyzing data on male ex-prisoners released to 67 counties in Florida, we found, as hypothesized, that Black ex-prisoners released to areas with higher Black male unemployment rates have a greater likelihood of violent recidivism. No comparable effect was identified for White exprisoners. However, we found that White ex-prisoners, especially those without prior violent convictions, have a lower likelihood of violent recidivism when released to areas with higher White male manufacturing employment rates. We discuss the findings and their implications for theory, research, and policy.     

RECONSIDERING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PERCEIVED NEIGHBORHOOD RACIAL COMPOSITION AND WHITES’ PERCEPTIONS OF VICTIMIZATION RISK: DO RACIAL STEREOTYPES MATTER?*

Recent theoretical extensions of threat theory have posited that Whites frequently view Blacks as a criminal threat because of stereotypes linking race and crime. Several studies have found indirect support for this hypothesis and have shown that the percentage of neighborhood residents who are Black is positively associated with the perceptions of victimization risk and fear of crime by White residents. To date, however, little research has investigated whether, as theory would suggest, this relationship is either a consequence of or is contingent on Whites holding stereotypes of Blacks as criminals. In this article, we address this issue by examining whether racial typification of crime mediates or moderates the relationships between static and dynamic measures of neighborhood racial composition and the perceptions of victimization risk by Whites. The results offer mixed support for the threat hypothesis and show that racial typification of crime conditions the relationship between perceived changes in neighborhood racial composition and the perceptions of victimization risk by Whites, but neither explains nor influences the association between static measures of racial composition and the latter. The implications of the findings for threat theory and research are discussed.     

Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension

An increase in the unemployment rate decreases the opportunity cost of crime and increases the crime rate according to standard microeconomics models. However, a large body of empirical research has shown that an increase in unemployment may increase or decrease crime. By incorporating the return to crime into standard economic models, this paper shows that an increase in unemployment, as in recessions, decreases the opportunity cost of crime and the return to crime as well. As a result, the effect of unemployment on crime is ambiguous and depends on the apprehension rate. An increase in the unemployment rate tends to decrease the crime rate at lower apprehension rates, but to increase it at higher apprehension rates. An increase in the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits does not necessarily reduce the crime rate, and the effect of more generous unemployment insurance on crime depends again on the apprehension rate.     

Crimes,arrests, and elections: Predicting winners and losers

Political candidates are frequently identified as being either “law and order” advocates or “soft” on crime; however, the importance of actual arrest and crime levels on election outcomes has not been examined empirically. One particular set of candidates for whom arrest and crime rates might be expected to be predictive is publicly elected law enforcement officials. Using 1976 Florida County Sheriff election data, this article examines the capacity for discriminating between winning and losing incumbent sheriffs by using county arrest and crime data in association with socioeconomic and political information. The findings show that a significant discrimination is obtained (significant = 0.009, canonical correlation = 0.59, and 76 percent of the counties were correctly classified) and that crimes and arrests are significant factors in determining the outcome of sheriff elections. The results indicate that although traditional political factors, such as party affiliation and number of terms in office, and socioeconomic factors, such as income, density, and unemployment rates, do well in discriminating winning from losing candidates, a sheriff-election model must also incorporate crime and arrest information, particularly information on murder and rape.     

ATTRIBUTIONS,AFFECT, AND CRIME: STREET YOUTHS' REACTIONS TO UNEMPLOYMENT*

This research examines the role familial, school, labor market, and street factors play in the criminality of 200 homeless male street youths. Of particular interest is the way these youths interpret their labor market experiences and how together these experiences and interpretations influence criminal behavior. Findings reveal that familial and school factors have minimal influence on current criminal behavior. Instead, criminal behavior is influenced by such immediate factors as homelessness, drug and alcohol use, and criminal peers who engage in illegal activities. Further, criminal behavior is influenced by a lack of income, job experiences, and perceptions of a blocked opportunity structure. While labor market conditions and reactions to those conditions have some effect on crime, the findings also suggest that lengthy unemployment, job experiences, and a lack of income work in tandem with anger and external attributions to increase street youths' criminal activities.     

Disentangling the Crime-arrest Relationship: The Influence of Social Context

Drawing on the economic and conflict perspectives of crime control, as well as insights from the tipping effect literature, the present investigation examines the extent to which the social context within which potential offenders operate tempers the macro-level, reciprocal relationship between crime and arrests. We use autoregressive integrated moving average techniques to assess the extent to which the April 2001 race-related riot in Cincinnati, Ohio conditions the reciprocal relationship between property crime and arrests for the entire city and disaggregated by police district. Consistent with a majority of prior longitudinal studies, our analyses for the entire length of the times series reveal no evidence of an association between our measures of crime and arrest, regardless of the level of spatial aggregation. In contrast to the results from our baseline models, the post-riot transfer function models indicate that there is a reciprocal association between crime and arrests that is contingent upon the social context. The implications of our findings for the further study of the reciprocal relationship between crime and arrests are discussed.     

Understanding the place of punishment: Disadvantage,politics, and the geography of imprisonment in 21st century America

Studies suggest that the spatial distribution of punishment in the United States is shifting. This article analyzes variation in prison admissions across U.S. counties to deepen our understanding of the contemporary geography of punishment. While research on punishment generally treats economic and political theories of punishment as distinct, we draw on recent studies of penal attitudes to develop a theoretical argument regarding their possible interconnection. We then use Hierarchical Linear Modeling to test the hypothesis that conservatism, race, and disadvantage are associated with the use of prison and that these factors help to explain why prison admission rates are higher in rural and suburban counties than in urban ones, despite notably higher crime rates in the latter. The results indicate that nonurban counties send more people to prison than urban counties and that socioeconomic disadvantage, the size of the Black population, and conservatism are significant predictors of prison admissions after controlling for crime‐related problems. These findings suggest that poverty, race, and politics work in concert to shape the distribution of punishment across 21st century America.     

Street youth, strain theory, and crime

Utilizing a sample of homeless street youth, the study examined a more complete model of the classic strain perspective whereby relative deprivation, monetary dissatisfaction, monetary goals, and objective structural factors lead to crime. It also explored the interactions between these factors and the conditioning effects of peers, beliefs, and attributions. The results revealed that relative deprivation, monetary dissatisfaction, monetary goals, homelessness, and unemployment were related to crime. Further, monetary dissatisfaction and relative deprivation were conditioned by objective economic situations in their relationship with a number of illegal behaviors and interactions between monetary goals and monetary expectations and achievements were associated with crime. The results are discussed in light of the classic strain theories and suggestions are offered for future research.     

Reconsidering the unemployment and crime relationship: Variation by age group and historical period

Although considerable research has examined the direct effects of age and economic conditions on crime, relatively little work has investigated the joint influence that age and unemployment may have on rates of criminal behavior. This study extends prior research on the unemployment-crime relationship by testing simultaneously for (1) variation in the unemployment-crime relationship by age group and (2) variation in the unemployment-crime relationship over time. Age-specific arrest and unemployment time-series data for the United States from 1958 to 1995 are used to test these hypotheses. The two main findings indicate that (1) unemployment has a greater motivational effect on property crime among youth and young adults and (2) the unemployment-crime relationship varies over time, but in a way that appears to be more random than systematic. The implications for future research are discussed.     

Interpreting “Percent Black”

Abstract

Time series analysis is employed to assess the relationship between “percent Black” and violent crime in Washington D.C. over a 40-year period. Race-disaggregated violent crime arrest data are also examined. It is concluded that while there is some indication of a positive relationship between violent crime and “percent Black” over time, that relationship is not robust when disaggregated by race and crime type and may be limited to Black robbery offending. Further, it appears that “percent Black” may be serving as a proxy for other social problems. An exploration of possible correlates of racial disparity in violent arrests suggests that they are associated with a variety of factors, including social problems and their disparities.     

Is peniaphobia an incentive to crime?

This article analysed the relationship between crime categories and unemployment rates using a set of panel data for 14 states in Malaysia with data spanning from 1982 to 2008. It is well documented that crime and unemployment are negatively related in Malaysia; the same is the case for both violent and property crime. Increases in unemployment rates cause the consumption expenditure to decrease, especially among households, hence, causing potential earnings from illegitimate activities to drop and discouraging a person from committing a crime. However, the significant properties of the t-statistics indicate that it is important to consider the labour market conditions in employing appropriate policies in fighting crime. That being said, unemployment can indirectly explain hunger, poverty, decreasing standards of life and economic downturn.     

Race,the Economic Maturity Gap,and Criminal Offending in Young Adulthood

While research has documented that racial and ethnic groups are differentially involved in juvenile and adult crime, little research has examined whether economic and employment well‐being can explain Black and White adolescents' persistence in criminal activity into young adulthood. One potential explanation emerges from Moffitt, who posits an economic maturity gap to explain Blacks' greater persistence in offending in young adulthood. To evaluate this hypothesis, we draw on three waves of data available in the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health to examine whether economic and employment well‐being in young adulthood can account for the racial gap, and persistence in offending. Findings are consistent with Moffitt's hypothesis and indicate that economic and employment well‐being in young adulthood explain Blacks' greater involvement in criminal and violent offending in young adulthood. In addition, results indicate that the greater tendency of Blacks, compared to Whites, to persist in violent offending is also driven by the reduced economic and employment well‐being that Blacks face in young adulthood.     

The Impact of Police Strength and Arrest Productivity on Fear of Crime and Subjective Assessments of the Police

We explore the effect of police strength and arrest productivity on citizens’ fear of crime and perceived risk of victimization, as well as their subjective perceptions of the police including their confidence in the police and ratings of police response time. Police strength is measured as the rate of officers per 1,000 and productivity is calculated as the average number of arrests per officer; we also controlled for the crime rate using crimes reported to the police. We use nationally representative survey data (n?=?1,005) and conduct a supplemental analysis of data drawn from a representative sample of urban counties (n?=?1,500). Police force size and productivity have limited and inconsistent effects on fear of crime, perceived risk, and ratings of response time and no apparent effects on confidence in the police. We also find a modest yet statistically significant negative effect of police confidence on fear of crime. Our findings indicate that it is questionable whether adding more police will reduce fear or perceived risk of victimization to any measurable degree. Consequently, we suggest that rather than hiring binges and increased arrests, the focus should be instead on making positive contacts with citizens.     

Crime,unemployment, and social structures of accumulation: An inquiry into historical contingency

This article examines whether prior inconsistency in findings about the impact of unemployment on crime is the result of historical contingency caused by changes in the social structures of accumulation (SSAs) associated with the development of twentieth-century U.S. capitalism. We explore this question by comparing the relationship between official measures of unemployment and the crimes of burglary, robbery, assault, and homicide during four phases of recent U.S. economic development identified by SSA theorists: economic exploration from 1933 to 1947, economic consolidation from 1948 to 1966, economic decay from 1967 to 1979, and a new period of exploration from 1980 to 1992. We propose that the unemployment-crime (U-C) relationship is shaped not merely by the fact of unemployment, but rather by its social meaning within developmental stages of social structures of accumulation. Time-series analysis of the U-C relationship within each SSA stage from 1933 to 1992 supports our hypothesis that periods of structural unemployment will be characterized by a stronger U-C relationship than those in which unemployment is primarily frictional. We then validate the periodization of shifts in the U-C relationship suggested by SSA theory by applying time-varying parameter analysis to the entire series from 1933 to 1992. On the basis of these findings we conclude that crime control policies and future research into the relationship between unemployment and crime should take into consideration the historically contingent nature of the U-C relationship.     

UNEMPLOYMENT AND PROPERTY CRIME: A TARGET‐SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF OPPORTUNITY AND MOTIVATION AS MEDIATING FACTORS*

Most recent unemployment‐crime (U‐C) research is informed by the possibility that unemployment could both increase motivation for crime and decrease criminal opportunities. The mediating links of motivation and opportunity, though often assumed, have almost never been measured. We directly test for the potential mediating effects of opportunity and motivation using county‐level data for target‐specific crime rates such as convenience store robberies, motorcycle thefts, etc. We link these with data on the supply and value of corresponding crime targets (e.g., number and annual sales of convenience stores). Opportunity levels were generally unrelated to property crime rates and do not appear to mediate the U‐C relationship.     

The nexus between attribution theory and racial attitudes: a test of racial attribution and public opinion of capital punishment

Research has shown that attribution theory and racial attitudes are among the most consistent attitudinal predictors of capital punishment opinion. This study explores the overlap of these two constructs, racial attribution, and its ability to account for support and opposition to the death penalty. Using data from the 1972–2016 cumulative data file of the General Social Survey, three logistic regression models were used to analyze the effect of internal and external racial attribution on capital punishment opinions for (a) the aggregate sample, (b) White respondents only, and (c) Black respondents only. Respondents were asked whether racial inequalities were due to structural disadvantages or personal deficiencies of Black Americans. Findings showed that respondents in all three models were more likely to support the death penalty when they attributed racial inequalities to personal deficiencies of Blacks and less likely to support the death penalty when they endorsed structural disadvantages, although the effects were somewhat muted for Black respondents. These findings suggest that ongoing public support for capital punishment in the United States is based at least in part on a fundamental attribution error in which Whites and some Blacks alike blame Blacks for their own deprivation.     

A Macro-Social Exploratory Analysis of the Rate of Interstate Cyber-Victimization

This study examines whether macro-level opportunity indicators affect cyber-theft victimization. Based on the arguments from criminal opportunity theory, exposure to risk is measured by state-level patterns of internet access (where users access the internet). Other structural characteristics of states were measured to determine if variation in social structure impacted cyber-victimization across states. The current study found that structural conditions such as unemployment and non-urban population are associated with where users access the internet. Also, this study found that the proportion of users who access the internet only at home was positively associated with state-level counts of cyber-theft victimization. The theoretical implications of these findings are discussed.