Economic Crisis and Sub-national Elections in Selected European Countries. Three Types of Possible Relationships

During the past two decades, decentralisation issues have generated a keen interest in a large number of countries. However, this notion is very difficult to define as it refers to a wide range of institutional arrangements on the political, economic and social levels. There are many good reasons why the allocation of fiscal resources and budget transfers among levels of government must come after a strict assignment of spending powers. Hence, decentralisation as a silent revolution in public sector governance has swept across the globe and has reemerged as a valued political and economic goal in most countries, significantly varying from country to country. The purpose of this article is to show the impact of financial and economic crisis on sub-national government and sub-national elections in chosen European countries such as Poland, Ireland, Denmark and Greece. In some of the countries mentioned the sub-national run-offs were conducted with national parliamentary elections, but not in other countries, including Poland. Because of its uniqueness, however, the explanation of which constitutes an essential part of the article, Poland can be ‘a matiere a penser’ and a starting point for interesting analysis. As can be seen, the economic situation can not only change the election results, but also stabilise the political system, which is a good example of how the government party can manipulate public opinion, or even make elections a referendum on economic policy. The main determinant is the financial situation of sub-national government units and the country concerned.     

The Role of Non -Economic Drivers in Development Planning: The Case of South Korea and Turkey

ABSTRACT

The relationships between economic growth and planning strategies have been debated in different disciplines of social science. However, the emphasis has been more on structural and theoretical assumptions of planning and economics at the expense of other important non-economic and institutional factors that include social, cultural, political, and administrative dimensions. To explain the different approaches and outcomes of development planning, one needs to examine other factors that influence the nature of these plans and why they have been adopted. Using rigorous systematic and thematic review of government reports, academic publications and data from international organizations, this comparative study reveal the unique role non-economic factors play in countries’ development. It has been revealed that these factors not only influence the nature of planning strategies adopted by governments but also affect how these plans are implemented. Since South Korea and Turkey have achieved impressive economic growth over the last half a century, they have been selected as a case study to examine the role non-economic factors in their respective developments.     

当前两岸经济关系发展中的结构性难题与纾解路径

近年来两岸经济合作取得重大进展，但也存在难以纾解的结构性矛盾，而这些结构性难题的产生并非单纯的经济问题，上层建筑对生产力的制约已成为当前两岸经济关系的主要矛盾。因而，纾解之道也不能就经济论经济，应究其根源，从多维度、多层面去思考推动两岸经济关系发展的治本之策。     

台湾大陆经贸政策变化与深化两岸经济合作研究

近年来,随着两岸关系深化发展,台湾当局制定和实施了一系列经贸政策,对两岸经贸合作带来了影响。与此同时,大陆改革“红利”持续释放和加快经济转型发展,也为深化两岸经贸合作带来新的契机。当前,在全球经济变革和两岸产业竞争加剧的背景下,两岸经贸关系已进入新的“蜕变”期,亟需创新两岸经贸合作模式,选择更具前瞻性的产业对接路径,增加两岸经贸合作的受惠幅度,不断筑牢经济利益联结纽带,拓展两岸经贸合作的空间和潜力,促进两岸经济融合发展。     

Reassessing the Effect of Economic Growth on Well-being in Less-developed Countries, 1980–2003

Development debates have been greatly influenced by the growth consensus: the conventional wisdom that economic growth should be the primary priority for less-developed countries (LDCs) because it most effectively improves the well-being of the world’s poor. We compare the impact of growth to other independent variables in an unbalanced panel analysis of up to 109 LDCs and 580 observations across six time points (1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2003). Our dependent variables include caloric consumption, infant survival probability, one-to-five year survival probability, female life expectancy, and male life expectancy. First, we find that gross domestic product (GDP) has significant positive effects on caloric consumption, female life expectancy, and male life expectancy. Second, GDP does not have robust effects on infant and one-to-five survival probabilities. Third, fertility, urbanization, and secondary school enrollment have larger effects than GDP in the majority of models. The more powerful effects of fertility, urbanization, and secondary schooling cannot simply be attributed to an indirect effect of GDP. Fourth, we find that dependency variables do not have robust significant effects. Fifth, over time, GDP has become much less effective at improving caloric consumption and infant and one-to-five survival. We infer that there are serious limitations to concentrating exclusively on economic growth to improve well-being in LDCs.     

Transition to a market economy and sustained growth. Implications for the post-Washington consensus

Transition to a market economy is a lengthy process comprised of various spheres of economic activities. The belief that a market economy can be introduced by “shock therapy” is wrong, and in several cases has caused more problems than it has solved. Since a market economy requires adequate institutional structures, transition can be executed only in a gradual manner. Despite the fact that so-called Washington consensus, i.e. a set of policies aiming to shift from stabilization to growth, was developed without concern for post-socialist transformation, these ideas have significantly influenced the path of thought and action in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. After a decade of transition and lasting depression, a new, post-Washington consensus is developing. Major policy conclusions suggest that the core of emerging consensus, also based on the lessons from transitions, is institutional building. Only with strong institutions can liberalization and privatization put emerging post-socialist markets on the path of sustainable growth. Yet, to accomplish such a task the policy reforms must also take into consideration the need for equitable growth and the new role of the state. The latter must not retire from economic activities, but ought to change its role to support the reforms and integration of the post-socialist countries into the world economy in the era of globalization, of which the post-communist transition is an important part.     

Does Decentralization Reform Always Increase Economic Growth?: A Cross Country Comparison of the Performance

This study aims to test the impact of decentralization on the economic growth of a country. Based on the longitudinal data set of 63 countries with a time series spanning 1960 to 2007, the test result reveals that there is a negative relationship both between fiscal decentralization and GDP growth and between political decentralization and GDP growth. In order to examine the different impacts of decentralization, the same analysis was applied to subsets of countries categorized into three groups according to the economic stage of the country. This further analysis found that there is a negative relationship between political decentralization and growth in developing countries, between fiscal decentralization and growth in semi-developed countries, but no relationship in developed countries. These results show that decentralization is not always instrumental in economic growth, which means that the time variable, or more precisely the stage of economic development of a country, is an important factor when introducing decentralization reforms.     

The civil unrest as an obstacle toward financial development in Georgia, 1991–2007

Georgia has been experiencing robust GDP growth since the Rose Revolution despite its formal financial system remaining critically underdeveloped. This goes against a strongly supported proposition that a country’s economic development is followed by a well-developed and efficient financial system. In this paper we first explain the shallow financial deepening in Georgia and show that the economic growth in Georgia has been driven by such determinants as public spending and construction works mainly supported by foreign debt and FDI inflow. This paper further argues that prolonged civil conflict is one of the critical obstacles toward financial development in Georgia. Bank lending activity is associated with high level of uncertainty stemming from recurrent civil war. Newly privatized commercial banks are excessively cautious in expanding their loan assets to private non-financial corporations due mainly to the banks’ inability to precisely assess borrower’s risk involving not only with individual financial soundness but also with political uncertainty.     

Economic development and the rise of market systems

Traditional views of dualistic development emphasize differences in behavior between the traditional and modern sectors. In this article it is argued that a better distinction concerns market networks. A traditional sector is characterized by a lack of market integration. Such market integration can be achieved only through dramatic growth of a domestic market for basic agricultural goods. This will most likely involve the simultaneous protection and taxation of the agricultural sector. Thus, protectionism was an appropriate strategy of development, but most nations protected the wrong sector (industry) at the wrong time in the process of long-run development. Richard Grabowski is a professor of economics at Southern Illinois University-Carbondale. His research interests include analyzing the role of the state in economic development. His work has appeared inWorld Development, Journal of Developing Areas, Economic Development and Cultural Change, and Studies in Comparative International Development.     

The Limits of the German Minority Project in Post-communist Poland: Scale,Space and Democratic Deliberation

This paper explores the development of the German minority community in postcommunist Poland, focusing specifically upon the Opole Silesia voivodship. I argue that the minority's successful engagement within democratic fora at all spatial scales allowed the minority to voice its concerns and secure funds to develop its community infrastructure. However, as the 1990s progressed, the minority's ability to manipulate a politics of scale declined as the policy objectives of key allies were achieved or reformulated. Furthermore, the changing contours of the minority–majority relationship within Poland have exposed significant cleavages within the minority, bringing into question the continued relevance of the German minority political party for the constituency it claims to represent. Introduction The emergence in Europe of a new minority rights regime, adhered to by Poland as part of its desire to “return to Europe” and join the European Union, has created a legislative framework that aims to ensure that members of national minority populations can enjoy substantively the same rights as the majority. The most significant legislation in this area is the Council of Europe's Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities (1995), ratified by Poland in December 2000. The “guarantees” of this new regime, in order to be substantiated, require minorities to be able to mobilise sufficient political capital in order to have their rights (social, cultural, economic) taken into account, both within and without democratic fora. In Poland the most successful minority has been the German minority, which, during the late 1980s and early 1990s, was able to forge up-scale links with powerful allies such as the German government, the Union of Expellees and the Association of Compatriots. As the 1990s unfolded, these links weakened, in part because of the substantial progress made by the minority in gaining the recognition they had been aiming for, but also owing to the changing policies of allies as their own goals were achieved or reformulated.     

IMPROVED PERFORMANCE IN LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A WARM EMBRACE OR AN ARTFUL SIDESTEP?

This article examines the extent to which changing approaches to performance management have had an impact on a range of agencies responsible for local economic development programmes in Britain. It explores the possibility that the effectiveness of public programmes could be more sharply highlighted and incorporated in the performance review of organizations. It demonstrates that major improvements have occurred but that overall the planning and management of local economic development remains largely incremental. While the FMI (Financial Management Initiative) has led to greater understanding of the extent to which corporate and programme accountability can be achieved in public agencies, it is not clear that sufficient momentum has been achieved for future changes to be self-generating. Further progress in performance management continues to be dependent on strong external pressures to publicize, probe and reward demonstrable improvements in public sector performance.     

Small business in Russia—factors that slowed its development: an analysis

In Russia the growth of small business has been much slower compared with the leading transition countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). In Poland, and to a lesser degree in the Czech Republic and Hungary, this sector has been the engine of the economic recovery. A natural question is why Russia differs. Apart from the fact that in contrast to these countries Russia does not have an entrepreneurial tradition and has experienced communist rule longer what is especially distinctive about Russia has been the strong influence of interest groups during the transition process which favoured the allocation of entrepreneurship to largely unproductive activities.     

Economic development and population

Conclusion Neo-Malthusian analysis that high and increasing population density hinders economic development and results in poverty has been demonstrated to be false. The two major structural variables negatively associated with rate of population increase are wealth and socialism, and the major determinants of economic growth are level of economic development and economic organization. If our analysis is correct the various campaigns supported by AID, the major U.S. foundations and other groups to discourage population growth in Third World countries in order to increase their rate of economic growth are misguided. Every baby born is not only a new mouth to feed, but also within a few years two more hands to work. There are great potentialities for economic growth in the Third World that await only the proper economic organization to be realized. That is, if the two hands are used efficiently, they will more than feed themselves. Attempts to reduce the birth rate by propaganda and making contraceptives readily available, ignore the structural causes of high fertility and so are not likely to succeed in reducing the birth rate. Our data suggest that only when the structural causes of high fertility—the poverty and economic insecurity associated with capitalism—are removed is the birth rate likely to fall significantly.     

Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa

The political landscape of post-independent sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been one of rampant coups d'etat. Existing evidence suggests such elite political instability (PI) has been growth-inhibiting even when exports are accounted for. In the light of the increasing interest in the role of export-promotion strategies in fostering economic growth, however, the present paper examines the impact of PI on export performance in these economies. The paper explores the hypothesis that the lack of a stable political environment adversely influences export performance via competitiveness, and that PI may actually play a more crucial role in export than in overall GDP growth. Based on detailed data on the incidence of coups in 30 SSA countries, real export growth over 1967-1986 is regressed on a principal-component of the various forms of coup events - "successful" coups, abortive coups, and coup plots - as well as on export structure, terms of trade, production capacity, and exchange rate misalignment. The results support the above hypothesis of an adverse impact of PI on export growth, and further suggest that PI has been even more deleterious to exports than to overall GDP.     

Economic Fluctuations and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Importance of Import Instability

The traditional thesis that export instability (XI) is deleterious to economic growth in developing economies has received mixed empirical results. For African countries, recent research suggests that the effect of XI is weak, but that capital (investment) instability (KI) adversely influences economic growth. The current study argues that in many of these nations, imports are likely to be critical to the growth process, while exports represent only one of the various sources of investment resources. Hence, import instability (MI) may pose a more serious problem than XI in hindering economic growth. Employing 1968-1986 World Bank data for 33 sub-Saharan African countries, XI, KI and MI variables are calculated for each country as the standard errors around the respective 'best-fitted' trends over the sample period. These instability measures and additional World Bank data are then used to estimate an augmented production function that controls for the effects of labour, capital, and exports. The study finds that although KI is still a relevant argument of the production function, MI appears to be even more important, while XI is extraneous.     

Financial development and economic growth: Additional evidence

This note suggests that, contrary to the conclusions reached in several recent studies, the empirical evidence does not support the view that financial development promotes economic growth. It is first noted that the predominant pattern in the data for 95 individual countries is that of a negligible or weakly negative covariation between financial development and growth of real GDP per capita. Second, the individual‐country correlational picture is a sharp contrast to the correlations based on crosscountry data that have been used in most research on the subject. Third, individual‐country estimates of a basic multiple‐regression growth model also do not indicate a positive association between financial development and growth. Fourth, in cross‐country data and models of the kind that have been used in most studies, when the regression structure is permitted to vary across three subgroups, a huge parametric heterogeneity is observed, and the overall indication is that of a negligible or negative association between financial development and growth.     

Jordan: Model Reformer Without Upgrading?

Jordan has been praised as one of the best reformers among middle-income countries. Renewed growth during recent years has raised expectations that the reforms are finally bearing fruit. This article argues that growth in Jordan is not based on structural transformation and is not sustainable in the absence of firm-level upgrading. Growth has been driven by the expansion of non-tradable activities, while the country has not been able to modify its production structure or achieve noticeable productivity improvements under neoliberal policies. Higher value added and technology-intensive production has not evolved concomitantly with the development of social capabilities, impeding the emergence of a virtuous cycle leading towards economy-wide upgrading. Uneven development of social capabilities has also constrained the upgrading potential. The macroeconomic context has not been conducive to generating incentives for investment aiming at enhancing firm-level capabilities and promoting economic diversification. Upgrading will not take place spontaneously by the free functioning of market forces alone, and in its absence Jordan will not be able to confront the middle-income trap. This requires a more active state intervention, beyond building a business friendly environment, which in turn demands the development of institutional capabilities The Jordanian experience offers important insights for other small countries that have embraced the neoliberal recipe for development.     

Russia Resurgent,Russophobia in Decline? Polish Perceptions of Relations with the Russian Federation 2004–2012

How accurate is it to speak of a Polish russophobia today? The historic view of Poland as the easternmost bulwark of Western Christianity has involved an ‘othering’ of Russia that may be less salient following Poland's membership in the European Union. Elite and citizen attitudes towards Russia since 2004 are analysed and, in particular, the impact of the nationalistic policies of the Kaczyńskis promoted between 2005 and 2007 is assessed. Data indicate that Poles' attitudes have shifted from a fear of foreigners, including Russians, in part because of an increased sense of collective security, in part because of newfound economic confidence. The 2010 Smolensk air disaster that resulted in the deaths of many Polish leaders has been a valence issue in Polish domestic politics, but has generally advantaged politicians opposed to fanning fears of Russia. Since 2007, the two Tusk-led governments have registered Poles' mixed attitudes towards Russia more faithfully than the Kaczyńskis' leadership did. This has served as the basis for engaging in more cooperative foreign relations with Russia.     

The dilemmas of market socialism: Capital market reform in China ‐ part II: Shares

This two‐part article analyses the attempts to reform the socialist financial system in China by diversifying financial assets and introducing capital markets. The approach used is that of political economy, in the sense of elucidating the interplay between political and economic interests, actors and issues in the reform process.

Part I discusses the issue of bonds by governments and enterprises. Although the reform era has seen gradual progress towards something resembling a bond ‘market’ in terms of a diversification of bond types and growing competition between bond issues, there is no evidence that this has improved allocative efficiency in the economy. Rather, bonds have functioned as one instrument in a complex struggle for resources between political, institutional and economic actors in the context of a continuing ‘shortage economy’. This competitive system falls far short of a true ‘market'; rather it embodies powerful systemic factors reflecting the basic structural and institutional features of a semi‐reformed socialist economy.

One of these systemic factors is the institution of social ownership of the means of production which has been called into question by the emergence of shares and share markets, a process we discuss in Part II. Share issues have in the event been economically unimportant but politically important since they challenge the ideological and institutional underpinnings of a ‘socialist’ economy. The key to the future of this form of financial liberalisation depends not merely on further progress in complementary areas of economic reform policy, but also on a resolution of these fundamental political issues.     

Is Economic Growth Increasing Disparities? A Multidimensional Analysis of Poverty in the Lao PDR between 2003 and 2013

The Asian story of miraculous growth and poverty reduction has reinforced mainstream views of development that equate high and sustained economic growth with progress in human wellbeing. But understanding development only in terms of economic growth is not sufficient. This paper offers a different perspective on possible effects of Laos’s transition from a subsistence-oriented economy to a market-oriented economy. We used a multidimensional poverty approach with panel data for the years between 2003 and 2013. Findings suggest that benefits were not equally distributed: 50 per cent of people moved in and out of poverty, and the other half was either non-poor (37%) or always poor (13%).