A comparative analysis of mortality in the Americas

"The analysis concentrates on the mortality of [the] adult population at ages 15 to 74 in 8 countries of the American continent.... Results are presented by age, sex and principal groups of causes of death. It is concluded that: a) mortality can significantly decline further in the Americas; b) there are noticeable mortality differentials by cause among countries; [and] c) all the countries still have excess mortality in certain age groups and causes of death, and hence, the mortality transition has not ended." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Maternal mortality in Mexico: measurement based on vital statistics

"Vital statistics are the most comprehensive source of information on maternal mortality in Mexico.... It is clear that maternal mortality has decreased throughout the twentieth century and will continue to do so. There are signs of a higher underestimation of mortality [due to] abortion. And there are regional differentials of maternal mortality.... Professional and/or institutional attention during childbirth has a great impact on maternal mortality decline. There are also socio-economic differentials by marital status, milieu, and schooling...." (EXCERPT)     

Comments on some indexes to measure the level and change of mortality

"The level and change of mortality can be measured in several ways not only because [of] the selected index, but also because of the way that the mortality change is measured. This document considers the indexes more frequently used for measuring the level of mortality, including the one of years of life lost recently developed. Each index is analyzed in relation to its accuracy for measuring the level and change of mortality, and advantages and disadvantages of each of them are discussed. The index years of life lost is presented with some details, since it was developed rather recently." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The decline in mortality in Mexico from 1940 to 1980

Mortality trends in Mexico from 1940 to 1980 are analyzed using both published sources and original data. An examination of regional differentials in infant mortality is included. The results indicate that mortality has not declined significantly in the least developed parts of the country since 1960. The analysis of changes in causes of death over time shows an increase in deaths from accidents, violent causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy for male social security-covered workers, by socioeconomic status

This article presents an analysis of trends in mortality differentials and life expectancy by average relative earnings for male Social Security-covered workers aged 60 or older. Because average relative earnings are measured at the peak of the earnings distribution (ages 45-55), it is assumed that they act as a rough proxy for socioeconomic status. The historical literature reviewed in this analysis generally indicates that mortality differentials by socioeconomic status have not been constant over time. For this study, time trends are examined by observing how mortality differentials by average relative earnings have been changing over 29 years of successive birth cohorts that encompass roughly the first third of the 20th century. Deaths for these birth cohorts are observed at ages 60-89 from 1972 through 2001, encompassing roughly the last third of the 20th century. The large size and long span of death observations allow for disaggregation by age and year-of-birth groups in the estimation of mortality differentials by socioeconomic status. This study finds a difference in both the level and the rate of change in mortality improvement over time by socioeconomic status for male Social Security-covered workers. Average relative earnings (measured as the relative average positive earnings of an individual between ages 45 and 55) are used as a proxy for adult socioeconomic status. In general, for birth cohorts spanning the years 1912-1941 (or deaths spanning the years 1972-2001 at ages 60-89), the top half of the average relative earnings distribution has experienced faster mortality improvement than has the bottom half. Specifically, male Social Security-covered workers born in 1941 who had average relative earnings in the top half of the earnings distribution and who lived to age 60 would be expected to live 5.8 more years than their counterparts in the bottom half. In contrast, among male Social Security-covered workers born in 1912 who survived to age 60, those in the top half of the earnings distribution would be expected to live only 1.2 years more than those in the bottom half. The life expectancy estimates in this article represent one possible outcome under one set of assumptions. These projections should not be regarded as an accurate depiction of the future. Specifically, this study adopts a simple projection method in which differentials are assumed to follow the pattern observed over the last 30 years of the 20th century for the first 30 years of the 21st century. This assumption lacks theoretical underpinnings because the causes of the widening differentials observed over the past 30 years have not been determined. On the one hand, if the trend of widening mortality differentials by year of birth observed over the past 30 years does not continue, the projection method used in this analysis could lead to an overestimation of future differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups. On the other hand, if mortality differentials do not narrow by age as observed in the past, the projection method used could lead to an underestimation of the differences in life expectancy between socioeconomic groups aged 60 or older.     

Mortality in Mexico. Some considerations on rural-urban differentials

"In this essay, certain aspects related to rural-urban mortality differentials in Mexico are analyzed....[These include] the availability, advantages, and limitations of different sources of information and the disparity of levels and tendencies according to particular indicators of acceptable reliability, especially those deriving from recent demographic surveys conducted in Mexico. The findings confirm an inverse ratio between size of settlement and mortality, and reveal a widening of the differentials over time." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The demographic consequences of austerity in Latin America: methodological aspects

This work reviews evidence in the literature of possible demographic effects of the austerity programs imposed on Latin American countries in the 1980s. The work focuses on methodological problems involved in assessing demographic changes and ascertaining that they were indeed attributable to the economic crisis. An introductory section describes the recession of the 1980s in Latin America, the declines in employment and living standards, and the health and social consequences of the deepening poverty. But the author argues that evaluation of health conditions, levels of nutrition, and especially factors such as infant mortality, fertility, marriage patterns, and migration as indicators of the impact of the economic depression is full of pitfalls that are not always obvious. Few Latin American countries have civil registration systems capable of providing accurate and up-to-date mortality and fertility data. Indirect methods currently in use were intended to analyze longterm levels and trends and are of little use for short-term fluctuations. Data on internal migration are scarce even in developed countries. Even when recent data are available it is often difficult or impossible to obtain data for comparison. Infant mortality and malnutrition levels, for example, are serious problems in many parts of Latin America, but series of data capable of demonstrating that they are truly consequences of the economic crisis are lacking. Another challenge is to separate the demographic effects of the debt crisis from longterm structural processes. The possibility of time lags and of different time frames may increase confusion. Almost a year must pass before effects on birth rates can be expected, for example. Neutralizing mechanisms may obscure the effects sought. Thus, the most impoverished urban sectors may return to the countryside to seek refuge in subsistence agriculture; their departure would in some measure diminish the consequences of recession in the urban economy. The type of cross-sectional analysis of differential fertility and mortality that is currently stressed in demographic studies is of limited utility for understanding the demographic impact of economic oscillations, for which a longitudinal approach is required. The next section of the article compares evidence of the effects of the recession of the 1980s with the Great Depression of the 1930s and with historical crises, suggesting that contemporary economic recessions have little in common in terms of causes or demographic consequences with historic crises. Specific studies and available data are then examined in the areas of fertility and mortality, longterm consequences of the economic recession, and migration.     

LONGEVITY‐RELATED OPTIONS FOR SOCIAL SECURITY: A MICROSIMULATION APPROACH TO RETIREMENT AGE AND MORTALITY ADJUSTMENTS

We consider the distributional implications of Social Security policy changes in the context of increases in life expectancy and differential mortality. Using a robust microsimulation model, we examine how several options for raising the retirement age, including a scenario that applies a mortality adjustment in combination with such policies, affect different types of individuals and households. Policy changes are simulated for Social Security beneficiaries in 2030 using the Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) microsimulation model. The analysis shows that increasing either the age at which individuals receive their full retirement benefit alone or the early eligibility and full retirement ages together result in across‐the‐board reductions in benefit levels. The policies are projected to result in slightly higher poverty, but the expected rise is sharper among groups known to experience higher rates of mortality, as well as many disadvantaged groups. Analysis of a hypothetical adjustment to offset the historical impacts of differential mortality by lifetime earnings on lifetime benefit receipt, when combined with these retirement age increases, shows varied results. While some groups of individuals experience sharper reductions in median monthly benefits, the adjustment has an offsetting and protective effect for the benefits of disadvantaged groups when combined with options that would raise the retirement age. This combined package of policies, as well as simulations that incorporate a behavioral adjustment in benefit claiming ages, result in an increase of less than one percentage point in the average poverty rate.     

Designing institutions to improve well-being: Participation,deliberation and institutionalisation

Social accountability institutions are at the forefront of democratic reformers’ efforts to improve well-being by harnessing the power of citizen participation. This article builds on recent research identifying a positive relationship between participatory budgeting (PB) and well-being. The article is the first large-N study to identify relationships between specific rules of PB programme design and well-being. A unique dataset of 114 Brazilian municipalities with PB programmes from 2009 to 2016 is constructed to evaluate whether internal mechanisms within PB explain variation in local infant mortality rates – an outcome associated with wellbeing. Hypotheses are tested that correspond to citizen participation, the scope of deliberation and embeddedness within local institutions. It is found that PB programmes are associated with lower infant mortality rates when they broaden participation, expand deliberation and embed the new institutions in ongoing policy-making venues. The results offer a framework for designing PB programmes and other social accountability institutions to maximise impact.     

Mortality reporting in SSA linked data: preliminary results

The earnings and benefit data of the Social Security Administration represent a fairly large and balanced sample of present and past wage earners nationwide. Since the incentives for reporting deaths to the Social Security Administration mean that deaths are reported as a matter of course, this data base serves as an interesting prospect for examining problems of differential mortality. Variables available include age, race, sex, industry, and place of employment. To check on the coverage and content differences between social security and death certificate data, a sample study is being undertaken that links the two sources for 1975 decedents. This article provides a preliminary examination of the differences between the presumably complete frame of death certificates and the social security record data. Related efforts now in progress to improve available information for use in further mortality research are also discussed briefly.     

Changes in U.S. hospitalization and mortality rates following smoking bans

U.S. state and local governments have increasingly adopted restrictions on smoking in public places. This paper analyzes nationally representative databases, including the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, to compare short‐term changes in mortality and hospitalization rates in smoking‐restricted regions with control regions. In contrast with smaller regional studies, we find that smoking bans are not associated with statistically significant short‐term declines in mortality or hospital admissions for myocardial infarction or other diseases. An analysis simulating smaller studies using subsamples reveals that large short‐term increases in myocardial infarction incidence following a smoking ban are as common as the large decreases reported in the published literature. © 2010 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Infant and child mortality in Mexico,estimated using the 1980 and 1990 censuses and projections to 2000

Using indirect methods based on information about live births and surviving children, the author reviews estimates of infant and child mortality in Mexico. Data are from the 1980 and 1990 censuses.     

Is Democracy Good for the Poor?

Many scholars claim that democracy improves the welfare of the poor. This article uses data on infant and child mortality to challenge this claim. Cross-national studies tend to exclude from their samples nondemocratic states that have performed well; this leads to the mistaken inference that nondemocracies have worse records than democracies. Once these and other flaws are corrected, democracy has little or no effect on infant and child mortality rates. Democracies spend more money on education and health than nondemocracies, but these benefits seem to accrue to middle- and upper-income groups.     

Dying Quietly: English Suburbs and the Stiff Upper Lip

The English suburbs are dying. Years of austerity have slowly changed the landscape. Poverty is now common in the suburbs. Since 2014, life expectancy has been falling across most of England, especially in the suburbs. Now infant mortality rates are also rising year on year (unlike anywhere else in Europe). In hindsight it is not surprising that the majority of suburban English people voted Brexit, most noticeably in the Home Counties. Middle England is understandably angry. No more fortitude in the face of adversity and the hiding of emotions. The stiff up lip has slipped. Change is in the air.     

Subnational Government Performance: Testing Multiple Dimensions of Governors' Experience

This article tests whether governors' work experience explains their state performance. Although the experience‐performance relationship has been researched, empirical studies report inconsistent results. This inconsistency might be due to the dissimilar conceptualization and operationalization of the work experience construct, for it can be conceptualized in qualitative or quantitative components. To address this disparity, the authors follow Tesluk and Jacob's conceptualization by operationalizing gubernatorial experience across three dimensions: type (qualitative component), number of jobs, and years of work experience (quantitative component). The study tests the moderating effects of state context (level of violence) on the experience‐performance relationship, relying on data derived from 32 Mexican states over 16 years. Education outputs (high school enrollment) and health outcomes (infant mortality rate) are used to assess state performance. Results indicate that only the qualitative dimension of governors' work experience boosts state performance by reducing infant mortality and increasing high school enrollment. However, this positive effect is undermined by state violence. The number of jobs decreases gubernatorial performance, magnified by the degree of state violence.     

Differential mortality in women of reproductive age

"This paper begins by reviewing some conceptual frameworks for the study of female mortality and indicates some of its application problems. Next it presents results of mortality of women in reproductive-age classified by age, causes of death, and socio-demographic traits (marital status, schooling, and occupation) for ten states [in Mexico] differentiated according to level of development and well-being. The data suggests differences according to age, marital status, and schooling. Finally, testing of the mutual independence and partial independence hypotheses indicates that age, marital status, and schooling correlate to the degree of development of each state." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Legalization and dissolution of consensual unions: an example of log-linear models used to estimate models of competing risk

"This is a mainly methodological work: a generalization of the so-called proportional risk models to cases of multiple and competing risks.... Proportional risk models are an extension of the methodology implied in calculating mortality tables, where the risk function is made to depend on some variables (covariables), as in a regression model.... Life-table methodology has been...an essential instrument in demographic calculus and analysis." The author uses the proposed methods to analyze the determinants of the legalization and dissolution of consensual unions in Mexico. (EXCERPT)     

Population and society in imperial Spain

The author reviews political, economic, and social change in Spain during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, with a focus on the impact on the spread of epidemics and on mortality.     

Mortality by cause among children younger than age one in Mexico

"This article presents the levels and trends of deaths among children [in Mexico] under the age of one, by groups of causes, for some states, for the years 1979-1985. Identifying the causes of death according to the international classification of diseases, both for deaths among children under the age of one and for total deaths, the goal is to establish a comparison of the levels of general and infant mortality by groups of causes. The data are taken from the statistical yearbooks of the Head Office for Statistics, for the years 1979 to 1985." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

The distribution of income in a despotic society

A distribution of income between rulers and subjects can be derived as an equilibrium of violence, rather than from considerations of marginal products of owned factors of production. Society is organized in ranks, and the occupants of each rank are provided with incomes just sufficient that obedience is preferable to rebellion. To incorporate such considerations into a model, it is necessary to recognize phenomena that are normally excluded from economic analysis: combat, the mortality rate (from natural causes and from violence) as a component of the utility function, and a rudimentary technology of control.