Analysis of policy issues concerning social integration

Empirical policy analysis can often contribute information relevant to public policy-making that affects different kinds of social integration. Policy analyses concerning social integration in a variety of settings face common analytical issues and potential statistical problems. As an example of this type of empirical analysis, this paper uses survey and census data from the Detroit metropolitan area to analyze the effect of neighborhood racial composition on residents' satisfaction with their neighborhoods.     

Legal international migration across the northern frontier of Mexico

The impact of the Simpson-Rodino Law of 1986, which increased legal commuting labor migration across the Mexican-U.S. border, is examined using data from surveys undertaken in 1986 and 1990. "Using these data and LOGIT regression models which include variables related to individuals as well as their household members and their context, statistical evidence is generated in support of the propositions that, i) an expansion occurred of the spectrum of social strata incurring in this type of migration; ii) the selectivity characteristics of new entrants into this migration group show a reproduction strategy oriented toward upward mobility; and iii) contextual factors led to a geographic redistribution of the commuter migrant group in the state of Baja California." (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Voting over Redistribution and the Size of the Welfare State: The Role of Turnout

Theories of redistribution inspired by the Downsian model receive little support from empirical investigation. In this article I argue that one of the possible explanations is that the standard Downsian theory, and the empirical specifications derived from it, ignore electoral turnout. Empirical evidence consistently shows that higher-income citizens are more likely to vote; office-seeking candidates should therefore include this probability in their objective function. As a consequence, the pivotal voter is not the median in the income distribution, but is generally richer. Moreover, an increase in income inequality does not unambiguously increase the political demand for redistribution, as most literature takes for granted. Including turnout in the model restores the compatibility of the Downsian theory with current empirical evidence. A regression analysis on panel data for 41 countries in the period 1972–98 confirms the importance of turnout as an explanatory variable for social spending.     

An empirical investigation of determinants of corporate social performance using multi-dimensional panel data analysis

An assessment of the determinants of corporate social performance (CSP) in emerging economies is still too fractured. This article contributes to general management literature by developing an empirical model based on the existing theoretical models rooted in neo-institutional theory (legitimacy approach), stakeholders management theory, agency theory, the resource-based view of the firm, slack resources argument, and managerial control theory. A robust, multidimensional, unweighted disclosure index was used to measure CSP. This article provides a methodologically and empirically more rigorous assessment of determinants of CSP compared to previous studies by performing panel data regression analysis on 307 firms for 10 years. The results reveal that the presence of a legal framework, board attributes (board size, board diversity, board interlocking), women on board, ownership pattern, financial performance, firm attributes (size, age, leverage), and industry characteristics affect CSP significantly. These findings provide very important clues to design pragmatic strategies to improve CSP.     

社会服务领域政策理论构建初探

社会服务体系建设包括众多议题,我们不能仅仅考虑政策法规层面和实践层面的建设,更要重视理论层面的建设,只有这样,社会服务体系建设才算完整。需要强调的是,社会服务领域不仅需要一般科学研究提出的社会科学理论和自然科学理论,更需要用于指导社会服务政策和实践、定位于政策的理论,即政策理论。本着这一目的,本文就社会服务领域理论的政策用途、如何构建和构建什么样的政策理论进行初步探索。     

Religious voting and moral traditionalism: The moderating role of party characteristics

One of the most important theoretical explanations for why religion is associated with party choice is that religion affects citizens' moral values, which in turn affect party preference. In this article, I first estimate the empirical importance of this mechanism. On average, about ten percent of religious voting is mediated by moral traditionalism. Secondly, I argue that the importance of this mechanism varies depending on party characteristics. The effect is indirect through moral traditionalism to the extent that parties emphasize moral issues such as abortion or euthanasia. Under these conditions, group belonging may provide useful cues for voters. Combining data on 50 parties with survey data on more than 10,000 citizens from 13 West European countries, this article provides empirical evidence of this proposition in the case of the religious cleavage. The findings may be of relevance also for other social structural variables, such as class or gender.     

Anchoring political preferences: The structural bases of stable electoral decisions and political attitudes in Britain

Abstract. The paper applies a structural perspective to the analysis of political preferences. Examining two British surveys, the 1987 cross–section of the electorate and a panel survey that covers the 1983 and 1987 elections, the research explores the bases of persistent voting for the same party, location on left–right scales, and the probability of holding the same policy views on a host of different issues over time. A set of structural variables rests at the heart of the paper's theory: discussion networks, patterns of interactions with members of political parties, social class networks, and location in the social structure. Several hypotheses guide the analysis: The effects of the structural variables on the probability of casting a ballot for the same political party in any one election and in adjacent elections will remain, even after controlling for party identification; political party socialization; location on left–right scales; positions taken on any and all political issues; age, and past levels of electoral stability. The effects of structural variables on left–right position will remain, even after controlling for locations on alternative left–right scales. Finally, reinforcing attitudinal context provides the only consistent determinant of stable policy positions, after controlling for a host of alternative explanations including level of education; age; interest in politics, and a general propensity to offer stable answers to political questions.     

沿海十省(市)药品监管机构能力之比较研究

在构建社会主义和谐社会的当代中国,药品的安全性和有效性正日益引起人们的关注,而药品监管机构能力的建设与评估也开始成为社会监管领域的重要问题.通过回顾国内外已有的对政府能力概念和要素的研究,借用Nelissen的潜在能力和现实能力理论,结合世界银行2003年《世界发展报告》中对机构现实能力的要素分析和"行政储备"理论对机构潜在能力的要素分析,构建起药品监管机构能力的结构模型,并提出一套评估的指标体系.对数据进行标准化处理后,通过统计排序对沿海十省(市)药品监管机构能力进行评估和比较,进而利用最小二乘法(OLS)建立回归模型,分析潜在能力中的财力和人力因素对现实能力的贡献率.研究发现:地区财力对监管机构现实能力的影响较之人力因素要大,这在理论和实践中都可以得到证实;各地药品监管机构的潜在能力与现实能力之间存在较大差异,就那些现实机构能力较低的地区而言,现阶段有必要把工作重点放在医药企业生产经营行为的监管和农村地区医药监管基础设施的建设上;而对于潜在机构能力较低的地区来说,从"专业化、程序化和独立性"等方面提升机构整体的人力资源是当务之急.     

Economic Development and Democracy: the View from Latin America

This article provides a robust empirical test of the economic development thesis using time-series data on seventeen Latin American countries ( n =408). It specifies similar models (both linear and non-linear) to those found in the global comparative literature on economic development and democracy in an effort to replicate their findings at the regional level. The statistical analysis shows that the positive relationship between economic development and democracy is not upheld at this level, even when using alternative measures of both and controlling for sub-regional variation. Overall, the analysis provides a regional 'most likely' study that infirms the main claims of modernization theory.     

Does social capital increase public support for economic globalisation?

The dominant explanation of public attitudes vis‐à‐vis economic globalisation focuses on re‐distributional implications, with an emphasis on factor endowments and government‐sponsored safety nets (the compensation hypothesis). The empirical implication of these theoretical arguments is that in advanced economies, on which this article focuses, individuals endowed with less human and financial capital will be more likely to experience income losses. Hence they will oppose economic openness unless they are compensated by the government. It is argued here that including social capital in the analysis can fill two gaps in explanations relying on factor endowments and the compensation hypothesis. First, generalised trust – one key aspect of social capital – constitutes a personal endowment alongside human and financial capital. Second, structural social capital – another key aspect of social capital – can be regarded as a nongovernmental social safety net that can compensate for endowment‐related disadvantages of individuals. Both aspects of social capital are expected to contribute, for distinct reasons, to more positive views on economic openness. The empirical testing relies on survey data for two countries: Switzerland and the United States. For both countries, the results indicate that generalised trust has a strong, positive effect on public opinion of economic globalisation, whereas structural social capital has no effect.     

A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence

We present a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence—unified in the sense that we employ our theoretical deterrence model as our statistical model in the empirical analysis. The theoretical model is a straightforward formalization of the deterrence logic in Huth (1988) and Huth and Russett (1984) , coupled with private information concerning utilities. Our statistical analysis suggests that the attacker and defender's decisions are influenced by the balance of forces, nuclear weapons, defender-protege military alliances, arms transfers, and trade, as well as the regime types of those involved. Many of these findings contradict previous research by Huth (1988) and Huth and Russett (1988) . We find that many of the variables involved in the deterrence calculus are nonmonotonically linked to the probability of deterrence success or war. We illustrate the results with case studies of the Soviet-Japanese dispute over Manchukuo (1937–1938) and the Berlin Blockade (1948).     

Toward the Self‐Evaluating Organization? An Empirical Test of the Wildavsky Model

This article presents the first empirical test of Wildavsky's model of self-evaluation by public organizations. We elucidate Wildavsky's arguments and identify six variables that have theoretical effects on self-evaluation. A statistical model that incorporates these variables explains 46 percent of the variation in self-evaluation. The evidence suggests that self-evaluation is positively related to leadership support and employee involvement, and negatively related to the number of organizational sub-units undertaking evaluation at the same time. Refinements to the Wildavsky model are proposed, and conclusions are drawn on the theory and practice of self-evaluation by public organizations.     

Strategic Misspecification in Regression Models

Common regression models are often structurally inconsistent with strategic interaction. We demonstrate that this "strategic misspecification" is really an issue of structural (or functional form) misspecification. The misspecification can be equivalently written as a form of omitted variable bias, where the omitted variables are nonlinear terms arising from the players' expected utility calculations and often from data aggregation. We characterize the extent of the specification error in terms of model parameters and the data and show that typical regressions models can at times give exactly the opposite inferences versus the true strategic data-generating process. Researchers are recommended to pay closer attention to their theoretical models, the implications of those models concerning their statistical models, and vice versa.     

Evolution von Staatlichkeit — mit einem Exkurs zu N. Elias’ „Soziogenese des Staates“

If “the state” is considered as a historically grown social institution — and not only as a clearly defined set of institutions of legitimate order —, and if the evolution of legitimate and sanctioned state interventions in society is analysed from a functional politico-sociological perspective, than the emergence of new patterns of state functions in an increasingly global and interdependent socio-economic context is revealed. The paper analyses the following questions: How do recent state theories try to understand and explain the functional change of state institutions in their societal context? Can Norbert Elias’ theories of civilisation processes, of the emergence of the state, and his figuration theory facilitate the empirical analysis of the evolution of (post) modern state functions? Does an evolutionary perspective provide a basis for an “enlightened theory of the state”? What follows in terms of a theoretical and empirical investigation of present and future state functions?     

Socioeconomic determinants of migration in Mexico

"This study examines the socioeconomic influence on migration frequency and transitory movements in four Mexican regions. The analysis is based on data gathered from the [Mexican Fertility Survey] 1976-1977, considering the influences of...education, occupation, literacy, place of residence and fertility. The methods used for this analysis were regression and logistic regression." Aspects considered include patterns of internal migration in Mexico, data sources, analysis of independent variables, migration experiences, and age effects. A comment by Carlos Brambila Paz is included (pp. 179-83). (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

Bureaucratization of non-governmental organizations: An analysis of employees' perceptions and attitudes

The key concern of the following article is to measure empirically the extent to which nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are bureaucratized. The perceptions of the employees of the NGOs were elicited about the characteristics of bureaucracy. Interval scale data on respondent perceptions were analysed through step-wide regression. The statistical analysis does not reveal any specific directionality. Instead, it shows a complicated set of relationships between each of eight characteristics of bureaucracy (dependent variables) on the one hand and the multitude of independent variables on the other. It can be inferred from the data and regression results that the bureaucratic characteristics of NGOs have not crystallized, as in the case of many governmental organizations. Only some postulates of bureaucratic theory, as propounded by Max Weber, are prevalent in the NGOs.     

社会福利指数、政府支出规模及其结构优化

政府支出规模及其结构优化应以提高社会福利水平而不是以经济增长为其最终目标。构建了政府支出与消费、社会福利之间的理论分析模型,利用优化控制理论与方法,从理论上论证了在最大社会福利的基础上存在最优政府支出规模与支出结构安排,设计了衡量社会福利水平的新指标,并以此指标为基础,利用中国1982年—2005年的年度数据,对政府支出规模及其结构优化进行计量分析。其基本结论是:我国政府支出规模及其各种单项支出与社会福利指数之间存在较强的相关性,为满足我国不断增加的公共服务需求,应增加政府支出规模,优化政府支出的内部结构体系,即适度提高中央政府支出在政府总支出中所占的比重,减少投资性支出和行政管理支出,增加以教育、公共卫生、公共安全、社会保障为主体的公共服务性支出,以促进我国社会福利水平的提高。     

Logrolling under fragmented authoritarianism: theory and evidence from China

This paper provides a rigorous theoretical and empirical analysis of the effect of logrolling between interest groups on social welfare in a non-democratic political system. In particular, we focus on China, where bureaucratic interest groups are separate vertical organizations reaching down from Beijing to the provinces and cities. The key question in this paper is: what are the effects of the logrolling of parochial interest groups on state policies and social welfare in autocracies? We address this question both theoretically and empirically. The theory predicts a specific distortion in resource allocation because of logrolling, while the empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction. We find policy outcomes under logrolling are characterized by excessive spending on all the interest groups’ preferred goods and insufficient spending on public goods. We test the existence of logrolling between the Ministry of Civil Affairs and Ministry of Health in China. Our result shows logrolling between the two ministries lead to inefficiencies in social security and health care policies.     

Effect of financial sector development and FDI inflow on employment rate in South Asia: New empirical evidence from ARDL approach

The current analysis aims to explore the empirical nexus between financial development, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow, and employment rate. To attain this aim, we collect 30 years of annual data over the period 1990 to 2019 from South Asian economies and employ the autoregressive dynamic least square (ARDL) model for regression analysis. The implication of the ARDL model was subject to the mixed stationarity status of the series as assessed by unit root testing. The robustness of the analysis was checked by employing the fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) models. The statistical analysis infers that both financial development and FDI inflow enhance the employment rate in the South Asia region. In addition, the empirical analysis infers that the gross capital formation, economic growth, and export volume have a positive while the population growth rate has a negative effect on the employment rate. The impact of underlying explanatory variables was found significant only in long run. The estimated coefficient values in the case of FMOLS and DOLS models support the direction of the relationship between explanatory variables and employment rate, implying the robustness of the analysis. The findings of the current analysis can be used to devise efficient economic policies to cope with the encroaching issue of unemployment in the South Asia region. This study offers the robustness to existing literature and complements the literature by exploring the underlying arrangement of study to the whole South Asia group.     

The welfare state,migration, and voting rights

This paper proposes a political economic analysis of public opinion in European Union countries toward migrants from poor countries. By focusing on redistributive policy, the analysis sheds light on specific determinants of public opinion. The theoretical analysis, based on the median voter framework, shows that one of the key variables affecting public opinion is the voting rights of migrants. Where migrants do not have the right to vote, their presence negatively impacts the poorest natives. In countries where migrants enjoy voting rights, they are able to vote on redistributive policy; therefore, the impact of migration on natives’ welfare is fundamentally different. After the theoretical analysis, the paper proposes an empirical analysis of Europeans’ attitudes toward non-Western migrants in European Union countries. This empirical analysis confirms the decisive impact of migrants’ voting rights. It shows that, in EU countries, the more educated natives are significantly less favorable to migrants from poor countries when the latter have the right to vote.