A decision support system model for technology transfer

Technology transfer is the process by which technology originating at one institutional setting is adapted for use in another. A major impediment to the implementation of new technologies to assist with mangerial decision-making problems is a lack of communication between the technology and management communities. Development of a tool designed to bridge the technology transfer gap was the goal of this research. The result is a prototype software package which may be used on an interactive computer terminal by a manager for assistance in designing a decision support system (DSS). The four primary research tasks were:

1. Develop a conceptual model of the DSS design process.
2. Select and adapt, or create, appropriate software to mechanize the model.
3. Develop a knowledge base to describe the interactiveness of various organization variables and managerial decision-making needs.
4. Collect and analyze interview data and implement resultant production rules on the model.

Tasks 1 and 2 were accomplished first to establish the feasibility of this effort. An interview instrument was developed for Task 3. And, corporate managers from several firms were interviewed to accomplish Task 4. Using this data, a prototype production rule model (called DECAIDS for DECISION AIDS) was constructed which supports managerial decision-making from the EMYCIN production rule system used at Stanford University. The purpose of this article is to introduce the need for a Decision Support System Model. A complete copy of this research can be obtained through University Microfilms International, 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106, from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93940, or the Defense Technical Information Center, Cameron Station, Alexandria, Virginia 22314. The title is “An Interactive Decision Support System for Technology Transfer Pertaining to Organization and Management”, 1980.     

Some principles of Pānini's grammargrammar

The following principles are seen to operate in the rules Pānini provides for Sanskrit grammar.

1. The obvious principle that the introduction of affixes and augments which condition sound replacements necessarily precede the latter.
2. Bracketing, whereby an operation whose condition is internal relative to a condition causing another operation applies prior to the latter.
3. The derivational prehistory of a form is pertinent to the operations which apply to it.
4. Blocking: a rule R₂ is said to block an R₁ if, in a given domain, R₁ tentatively applies (and would apply in the absence of R₂) wherever R₂ can apply, while R₂ would be vacuous if R₁ applied.
5. Limited blocking, which obtains where R₁ and R₂ overlap but also have independent domains of application.

These principles account for correct derivations in cases where post-Paninian grammarians invoked rule order: where two rules conflict, that one takes precedence which is stated later in the grammar. This principle is not generally tenable, since some derivations require that a rule stated previously in the grammar take precedence. Hence, the grammarians who invoke such rule ordering in cases of conflict must admit that only a knowledge of the correct results to be obtained by applying the rules allows one to correctly apply the rules in the first place. It is argued that Pānini avoided this weakness.     

Taxation,money, and credit,in a liberalizing socialist economy

Understanding the system of financial control in the pre-existing régime of ‘classical’ socialism is a key to understanding what might go wrong in the transition. Accordingly, this paper proceeds in four steps by examining:

1. how domestic fiscal and monetary processes complement central planning in the classical socialist economy;
2. why this mechanism for securing domestic financial control under classical socialism tends to break down naturally into inflation when decentralization begins and central planning though direct materials balancing is weakened;
3. how, in a more deliberate transition, domestic tax and monetary arrangements might be better managed to keep the price level stable as prices of individual goods and services are freed; and
4. how, in moving toward free foreign trade, explicit policies governing tariffs and foreign exchange convertibility could best parallel and complement the evolving restraints on money and credit in domestic commerce.

In effect, moves to dismantle the apparatus of central planning, decontrol prices, privatize property, and so on need to be supported by a proper sequence of fiscal, monetary and foreign exchange measures-as analyzed more fully in the author's new bookThe Order of Economic Liberalization. In this short essay, a summary outline of such a financial order is provided.     

“Fixed” Sentencing: The Effect on Imprisonment Rates Over Time

Objective

Sentencing guidelines, statutory presumptive sentencing, determinate sentencing, truth in sentencing, and three strikes are important components of the criminal justice system. The main purpose behind a relatively-fixed sentence is to remove judicial discretion by insuring that convicted felons receive a reasonably-assumed sentence depending on the crime committed. The current study assessed shifts in year-to-year changes in incarceration rates within all 50 states from the years 1965–2008 due to the adoption of sentencing reforms.

Methods

The study tests two competing theories, a normative theory and critical theory of the expected effects of reforms on imprisonment. Data was analyzed using panel regression with unit-specific fixed effects, conditional change scores, panel corrected standard errors, and a new measure of reforms.

Results

This study, possibly due to differences in model specification, ran counter to a number of previous studies and suggests some “front-end” sentencing reforms and “back-end” release changes are, on average, related to changes in imprisonment.

Conclusions

The study concluded, that when significant, reforms increased more than decreased prison growth in comparison to indeterminate sentencing. Additionally, the analysis concludes that changes in release mechanisms and parole decision structures are driving increased growth more than changes in sentencing structures.     

Dimensions of innovation

Within a conceptual framework of three dimensions, this paper examines parallels between the process of innovation in ship-building and in nursing care. Major conclusions are:

1. A given innovation must include not only technological change but also embedding activities to ensure its fit into the adopting organization.
2. To ensure continuation of the innovating process, it is necessary to build innovative capacity, with leadership vested in some person or group.
3. System-wide innovation requires both an effective diffusion process and diffusion capacity, to disseminate knowledge about specific innovations and also about ways to build innovative capacity.
4. Building both innovative capacity and diffusion capacity must be seen as responsibilities of the entire organization or system.

     

The effects of psychiatric and “biological” labels on lay sentencing and punishment decisions

Objectives

This research, using focal concerns perspective on sentencing, examines how and why psychiatric labels, and having diagnoses biologically “labeled,” affect sentencing beliefs. Dimensions of public stigma toward psychiatric illnesses are hypothesized to mediate sentencing views.

Methods

This is a 2?×?2 partially-crossed, between-subjects multifactorial experiment with a lay sample (n=?1213), presenting mediation analyses.

Results

Four psychiatric labels (Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder, behavioral-variant Frontotemporal Dementia, High Functioning Autism, Borderline Intellectual Disability) led to significant beneficial effects on sentencing (less prison/rehabilitation support) as mediated by decreased stigmatization regarding lack of treatability, social acceptance, and personal responsibility. One biological “label” (Pedophilic Disorder) was mediated by decreased stigmatization (dangerousness), resulting in less prison support.

Conclusions

Data support effects of psychiatric labeling on sentencing under focal concerns. As no psychiatric labels resulted in increased discriminatory sentencing and, instead, led to decreased discriminatory sentencing behavior, psychiatric labeling may reduce punitiveness and bolster non-punitive sentencing beliefs. Biological labeling, aside from Pedophilic Disorder, may not affect sentencing.

     

Enhancing Consistency in Sentencing: Exploring the Effects of Guidelines in England and Wales

Objectives

The development and application of methods to assess consistency in sentencing before and after the 2011 England and Wales assault guideline came into force.

Methods

We use the Crown Court Sentencing Survey to compare the goodness of fit of two regression analyses of sentence length on a set of legal factors before and after the assault guideline came into force. We then monitor the dispersion of residuals from these regressions models across time. Finally, we compare the variance in sentence length of equivalent types of offences using exact matching.

Results

We find that legal factors can explain a greater portion of variability in sentencing after the guideline was implemented. Furthermore, we detect that the unexplained variability in sentencing decreases steadily during 2011, while results from exact matching point to a statistically significant average reduction in the variance of sentence length amongst same types of offences.

Conclusions

We demonstrate the relevance of two new methods that can be used to produce more robust assessments regarding the evolution of consistency in sentencing, even in situations when only observational non-hierarchical data is available. The application of these methods showed an improvement in consistency during 2011 in England and Wales, although this positive effect cannot be conclusively ascribed to the implementation of the new assault guideline.     

Illegal logging: A market-based analysis of trafficking in illegal timber

Over the past several decades, illegally sourced timber has contributed to a growing roster of problems that affect both producing and consuming countries alike. Within the United States, the effect of timber trafficking on the national economy, and its potential effect on American foreign policy, has raised serious concern — so much so that in 2002, President George W. Bush announced his Initiative Against Illegal Logging in an attempt to discern and curtail the causes, methods, and parties involved in illegal activities. In 2005, the National Institute of Justice and Department of State, under the auspices of the President's Council on Environmental Quality, commissioned a literature review by Abt Associates to answer two principal questions:

1. Who commits the crimes of illegal timbering?
2. Hwo do they commit these crimes?

     

Some thoughts on the application of new technology to resource management needs

A brief insight into the phenomena of technology transfer are reviewed. With this as background material two propositions are stated:

1. Technology emerges from the human mind into widespread economic reality, with resulting social impacts over a long period of time. This is the process of technological innovation.
2. There always are some distinctive events, points or stages in this process that mark progress. If they can be identified, progress can be measured and related to time, cost, performance, resource usage, possible impact and other attributes. It is argued that there are at least eight identifiable stages of the process.

These stages are then discussed and conclusions are drawn.     

Dignity as (Self‐)Determination: Hopi Sovereignty in the Face of US Dispossessions

In 2013, the Arizona Snowbowl Ski Resort began spraying artificial snow made from reclaimed wastewater on Arizona's highest peak, a place the Hopi people call Nuvatukya'ovi, “Snow‐on‐top‐of‐it.” As one of the Hopis’ most sacred places, the home of the katsinam and the southwestern boundary marker of their aboriginal territory, the Hopi have fought for decades to stop development of the ski resort, which today sits on US Forest Service land. Viewing the history of this dispute through the lens of Atuahene's notion of a “dignity taking,” this article argues that despite never having been relocated, the indignities that the Hopi have suffered by US dispossessions of much of their aboriginal territory are the product of a series of bureaucratic sleights of hand that only bear the mark of legality if one ignores history and denies the enduring right to self‐determination and sovereignty that Hopi have continuously claimed with regard to the totality of their aboriginal land.

Yuuyahiwa,

Ayamo Nuvatukya'ove'e.

Oo'oomawutu,

angqw puma naayuwasinaya,

pewi'i.

They are preparing themselves [for a journey],

Over there at the snow‐capped mountains [San Francisco Peaks].

The clouds,

From there, they are putting on their endowments [of rain power],

To come here.

A Hopi katsinam song recalled by Emory Sekaquaptewa (from Sekaquaptewa and Washburn, 2004, 468)

     

Examining the Impact of Proximate Culpability Mitigation in Capital Punishment Sentencing Recommendations: The Influence of Mental Health Mitigators

In spite of the ruling in Atkins v. Virginia (2002), concerns remain that individuals with mental illness and reduced capacity are eligible for the death penalty. When mental illness or reduced capacity is not enough to preclude death-eligibility, these factors are often discussed at the sentencing phase as mitigators. Mitigation remains an under-researched avenue in the sentencing literature, particularly when it comes to the influence of specific types of mitigation. The present study contributes to knowledge on mental health mitigation by examining five mitigators relevant to the mental health and capacity of defendants. Using data from 834 capital sentences in North Carolina, the influence of these proximate culpability mitigators on jury sentence recommendations is examined. Results indicate that acceptance of certain mental health mitigators reduces the probability of death, but acceptance of others is not significantly related to death recommendations. These findings and their implications are discussed.     

Preference for the Diversity Policy Label Versus the Affirmative Action Policy Label

Study 1 assessed associations with the labels “diversity policy” (DP) and “affirmative action policy” (AAP) and perceptions of potential policy components. Student and community participants (N = 143) completed a survey assessing associations with one of the policy labels. Both policies evoked similar associations such as “race/minorities” and “equality/equal opportunity,” but the AAP was more often associated with “bias/inequality/discrimination,” “unfairness,” and “racism/prejudice.” When rating potential policy components, reverse discrimination was considered more likely under the AAP. In Study 2 we explored the evaluation of equivalent policy components associated with different policy labels. Student participants (N = 126) rated the policy labeled as the DP more favorably than the AAP. Both studies suggest more favorable attitudes toward the DP label.     

The security of network systems — A review

Organisations in both business and government face a considerable risk from inadequately secured information systems. In recognition of these risks, Directorate-General XIII (Telecommunications, Information Industries and Innovation) of the Commission of the European Communities commissioned a series of projects to examine security issues in the use of information technology. The results of one of these studies, concentrating on the security of network systems, is reviewed below.It was an objective of the study that its results should be seen as definitive, authoritative and applicable across the European Community as a whole. In order to meet this objective, the study, led by Coopers & Lybrand, drew upon the skills and experience of 44 organisations in seven European countries, including:

• •⊎ Coopers and Lybrand practices in France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom;
• •⊎ Admiral Management Services Ltd;
• •⊎ The Commission of the European Communities;
• •⊎ 17 vendors of IT products and services in five European countries;
• •⊎ 20 major users of network systems in seven European countries.

In particular, the study benefited from detailed case studies in each of the 20 large and sophisticated users of network systems and from assessments of 27 security products from twelve IT vendors.     

Technology transfer in the navy: The historical background

This report reviews technology transfer in light of the Stevenson-Wydler Technology Innovation Act of 1980. Following a brief introduction, a section on “Definitions” explains the several meanings that the phrase “technology transfer” now carries in policy discussions. The next section, on “Passive Technology Transfer”, reviews traditional Department of Defense scientific and technical information programs that relate to technology transfer. A section on “Military Industrial Transfer” examines technology transfer from the Defense Department to private industry, expecially to defense contractors. A section on “The Stevenson-Wydler Act and Active Technology Transfer” describes the principal provisions of the new act and why Congress passed it. The next two sections, on “NASA’s Technology Transfer Program” and “The Federal Laboratory Consortium” outline the two existing Government programs Congress relied upon in developing ideas for the new law. A section on “Implementation of the Stevenson-Wydler Act”, discusses several important issues that must be considered by Navy laboratory management as the new law is put into effect in the Navy. Finally, a brief conclusion emphasizes the major point of the report: That Congress, in passing the Stevenson-Wydler Act, did not fully consider what relationship the new technology transfer programs it was requiring in the Executive Branch should bear to existing programs with similar purposes. If the public interest is to be served, the report argues, the Navy must consciously and carefully determine the proper nature of this relationship.     

Terrorism Risk, Resilience and Volatility: A Comparison of Terrorism Patterns in Three Southeast Asian Countries

Objective

This article explores patterns of terrorist activity over the period from 2000 through 2010 across three target countries: Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand.

Methods

We use self-exciting point process models to create interpretable and replicable metrics for three key terrorism concepts: risk, resilience and volatility, as defined in the context of terrorist activity.

Results

Analysis of the data shows significant and important differences in the risk, volatility and resilience metrics over time across the three countries. For the three countries analysed, we show that risk varied on a scale from 0.005 to 1.61 “expected terrorist attacks per day”, volatility ranged from 0.820 to 0.994 “additional attacks caused by each attack”, and resilience, as measured by the number of days until risk subsides to a pre-attack level, ranged from 19 to 39 days. We find that of the three countries, Indonesia had the lowest average risk and volatility, and the highest level of resilience, indicative of the relatively sporadic nature of terrorist activity in Indonesia. The high terrorism risk and low resilience in the Philippines was a function of the more intense, less clustered pattern of terrorism than what was evident in Indonesia.

Conclusions

Mathematical models hold great promise for creating replicable, reliable and interpretable “metrics” to key terrorism concepts such as risk, resilience and volatility.     

Counterterrorism and Radical Eco-Groups: A Context for Exploring the Series Hazard Model

Objective

This study examines whether radical eco-groups have been deterred by legal sanctions. From a rational choice framework, I argue that members of these groups weigh costs and benefits. I measure an increase in costs, or an objective deterrence effect, through four federal sentencing acts targeted at reducing the criminal behavior of these groups [the tree-spiking clause of the Anti-Drug Abuse Act (ADA), the Animal Enterprise Protection Act (AEPA), the Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (AEDPA), and the Animal Enterprise Terrorism Act (AETA)] and hypothesize that this legislation decreased the hazard of subsequent attacks.

Methods

This research is a quasi-experimental design utilizing the 1,068 illegal incidents perpetrated in the name of the environment, animal, or both as extracted from the Eco-Incidents Database. Using series hazard modeling, I examine the time until the next incident, serious incident, and ideologically specific incident in relation to dummy variables operationalizing the enactment dates of the above legislation.

Results

All in all, the results are somewhat consistent with a rational choice framework and my hypotheses. The ADA decreased the hazard of another attack (11 %) and environment-only attack (15 %), while at the same time increasing the hazard of a terrorist, damage, and animal-related attack. AETA decreased the hazard of all (47 %), damage (42 %), and the behavior it was aimed at, that of animal-only incidents (52 %). However, neither the AEPA, nor AEDPA had a significant effect on any of the outcomes.

Conclusions

Overall, radical eco-groups were deterred by legal sanctions, but these findings are legislation and outcome specific in addition to including displacement effects.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Alice’s Adventures</Emphasis>, Abductive Reasoning and the Logic of Islamic Law

How does a Muslim jurist think the law and how, accordingly, he judges a fact? Using Alice in Wonderland as hermeneutical device to explore the logic of fiqh, this article identifies a divergence between Western and Islamic legal thinking in the application of abduction as key form of inference in the law of Islam. In particular, looking at the fact/law relation in symbolic terms, the article highlights how, while a dichotomy between fact and law characterizes Western legal thinking, fiqh upholds a connection between the “real” and the “right” (?aqq), where the effort (ijtihād) in understanding sharī‘ah postulates the actualization of the “rule” (?ukm) in God’s creation. Thus, if sharī‘ah pre-scribes the Law, not only is the rule discovered through the sources (u?ūl), but the right has to be justified through a verdict de-scribing the fact, for the law to be validly stated for the given situation. In this sense, abduction as explanatory “hypothesis” (Peirce) and “inference to the best explanation” (Harman) of sharī‘ah provides an account for the probabilistic nature of fiqh, its ramification (furū‘) through verdicts, as well as for the epistemic and narrative function of the tradition as core aspects of the logic of Islamic law. At the same time, doubts can be raised about the compatibility between this logic and the deductive logic of modern state law, as a sub-product of Western legal thinking.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Egocentric Measures of Peer Delinquency to Latent Homophily: A Research Note

Objectives

Egocentric measures of peer delinquency, obtained through a census of a social network, have become the preferred operationalization for examining the relationships between social influence and delinquency. Studies regressing ego’s delinquency on the delinquency of nominated friend/s (i.e. alter/s) conclude that a statistically significant coefficient provides evidence of social influence. However, the inferences drawn from these studies may be biased by the introduction of artificial statistical dependence as a consequence of using social network data in a regression framework. Recent work (Shalizi and Thomas Sociol Methods Res 40:211–239, 2011) shows that latent homophily, or unmeasured confounding of observables, may lead to nonzero estimates of social influence, even if there is no causal significance. To examine this possibility, sensitivity analyses have been created (e.g. VanderWeele and Arah Epidemiology 22:42–52, 2011; VanderWeele Sociol Methods Res 40:240–255, 2011) to determine the robustness of an estimated coefficient to latent homophily.

Methods

In this research note, I examine the robustness of estimates for social influence from two articles (Haynie Am J Sociol 106:1013–1057, 2001; Meldrum et al. J Res Crime Delinq 46:353–376, 2009) using egocentric measures of peer delinquency.

Results

Findings indicate that for large, precise point estimates, highly improbable conditions are needed to explain away the effects of social influence. However, less precise point estimates (i.e. large standard errors) are more sensitive to latent homophily.

Conclusions

The analyses indicate that studies using egocentric measures should conduct sensitivity tests, particularly when the estimated effect is weak and/or has a relatively large standard error. Scripts written in the free programming language R (R Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2012) are provided for researchers to conduct such analyses.