Assessing evidence and testing appropriate hypotheses

It is crucial to identify the most appropriate hypotheses if one is to apply probabilistic reasoning to evaluate and properly understand the impact of evidence. Subtle changes to the choice of a prosecution hypothesis can result in drastically different posterior probabilities to a defence hypothesis from the same evidence. To illustrate the problem we consider a real case in which probabilistic arguments assumed that the prosecution hypothesis “both babies were murdered” was the appropriate alternative to the defence hypothesis “both babies died of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS)”. Since it would have been sufficient for the prosecution to establish just one murder, a more appropriate alternative hypothesis was “at least one baby was murdered”. Based on the same assumptions used by one of the probability experts who examined the case, the prior odds in favour of the defence hypothesis over the double murder hypothesis are 30 to 1. However, the prior odds in favour of the defence hypothesis over the alternative ‘at least one murder’ hypothesis are only 5 to 2. Assuming that the medical and other evidence has a likelihood ratio of 5 in favour of the prosecution hypothesis results in very different conclusions about the posterior probability of the defence hypothesis.     

Decision-Making for Life Apart

… he (the layman) can understand the basic character of the English way of legal thinking, he can identify himself with it and, above all, can make his peace with it by retaining once and for all a solicitor as his legal father confessor for all contingencies of life (Max Weber, Economy and Society, 1922¹). The tendency in England and Wales is to use a solicitor's office as the automatic first port of call without first becoming aware of the range of services and the range of options which are available to separating and divorcing couples (Looking to the Future, 1995, para 7.3).     

Older parents' expectations for filial support

A measure of general filial obligation expectations is presented. With data from a representative sample aged 70 and older, we show that generalized expectations for support from adult children are not patterned systematically by sociodemographic factors or by health needs of the older respondents. A typology is presented which relates expectations for help to judgments of the level received. This typology is meaningfully related to social indicators presumably related to need such as marital status and socioeconomic status. Whether one is dissatisfied, satisfied, or pleasantly surprised by the assistance one receives is associated with evaluative judgments of children. The parent-child bond is affected not only by exchange patterns but by the fit between expectations and exchange patterns.     

Law for Life: Preliminary Thoughts

Law for Life is a training programme in contract law, unfair dismissal law and the English court system. It is aimed specifically at employees who in the course of their work are required to underdstand and apply the law regardless of whether or not they have received any formal legal training. One of the primary reasons for developing Law of Life was to provide training to the SME sector. Very often such companies do not have any in-house legal advisors and research has estimated that 70% of them do not provide any training for their employees in any aspect of their work. This suggests that smaller companies are relying on informally training, and even untrained personnel, in areas requiring legal expertise. Research carried out in the Luton area had indicated that SMEs tended to adopt a pragmatic approach to legal matters, addressing them as and when they arose. Law for Life was developed as a direct response to these findings. Recognizing that the SME sector is highly competitive, operates at minimum staffing levels and that SMEs are not generally in a position to release employees for staff training Law for Life had to be tailored to suit the needs of the SME sector. This meant that in order for Law for Life to be accessible to SME employees it had to be offered as a distance-learning package.     

Changing the support system for asylum seekers

The issues of asylum and the treatment of asylum seekers have once again hit the headlines in the UK. The recent problems in Kosovo in the former Yugoslavian territory have made the problem of dealing with asylum claims more acute. The past arrangements for asylum seekers have been inadequate and piecemeal and have developed as a result of changes made in 1996 and the subsequent intervention by the judiciary. The cost to the British taxpayer of the pre-1999 Act asylum arrangements has been over 500 million per year, 80 per cent of which has been spent on accommodating and supporting asylum seekers. There is also a huge backlog of cases and current figures are indicative of a system that is unable to cope. It is in the light of these problems that the Government has passed the 1999 Immigration and Asylum Act. This Article examines the changes that will be made to UK asylum law by the 1999 Act and assesses the problems that may be caused by those changes in the areas of housing and other forms of assistance and the effect that these may have on families and children seeking asylum in the UK.     

论侵害生命之损害赔偿责任——解释论的视角

侵害生命的损害赔偿责任由受害人生命权侵害责任和近亲属身份权侵害责任组成。生命侵害于死亡不可逆转地将要发生时构成,仍有主体资格的受害人此时即取得了生命侵害之抚慰金请求权以及死亡赔偿金请求权,这些请求权于死亡实际发生时转由受害人的继承人继承。身份权侵害于受害人死亡时构成,近亲属取得抚慰金请求权以及继发的物质损害赔偿请求权。被抚养人的抚养利益以及继承人的继承利益,均通过继承规则来实现,而不采固有利益侵权构成之模式。我国生命侵害之赔偿实践中,精神利益被过度低估,导致最终的赔偿数额的高低主要取决于物质损害的大小,引发了“同命不同价”之批判。解释论上,可根据《侵权责任法》第16条及第22条之规定,在坚持物质损害赔偿差异化处理的同时,对精神损害作平等的评价,认可受害人生命侵害之抚慰金请求权,并大幅度提高受害人及其近亲属的抚慰金数额,来彰显生命的精神价值,实现人格平等的价值诉求。     

Public support for vigilantism: an experimental study

Objectives

To empirically examine the absolute and relative impact of situational characteristics and confidence in the criminal justice system on public support for vigilantism.

Methods

In an experimental study with a between-subjects design, members of a Dutch household panel (n = 1,930) responded to vignettes about vigilantism that were varied across two experimental factors: (1) type of precipitating crime and (2) type of formal sentence for the precipitating offender. In the measurement of support, we distinguished between outrage at vigilantism, empathy with the vigilante, and desired punishment for the vigilante. Confidence was assessed 1?month later.

Results

Our findings show that situational characteristics have a substantial and independent influence on support for vigilantism, in addition to the role of confidence. This means that when citizens express support for those who take the law into their own hands, this is not necessarily rooted in a lack of confidence in the criminal justice system. Furthermore, all three measures of support were affected more by the situational characteristics than by confidence.

Conclusions

Citizens are nuanced in their judgment of vigilantism and sensitive to contextual information, which is in line with other recent findings regarding public punitiveness. Future studies should assess whether the findings can be generalized to other settings where citizens cannot rely (as much) on the state to deal with crime.     

A decision support system model for technology transfer

Technology transfer is the process by which technology originating at one institutional setting is adapted for use in another. A major impediment to the implementation of new technologies to assist with mangerial decision-making problems is a lack of communication between the technology and management communities. Development of a tool designed to bridge the technology transfer gap was the goal of this research. The result is a prototype software package which may be used on an interactive computer terminal by a manager for assistance in designing a decision support system (DSS). The four primary research tasks were:

1. Develop a conceptual model of the DSS design process.
2. Select and adapt, or create, appropriate software to mechanize the model.
3. Develop a knowledge base to describe the interactiveness of various organization variables and managerial decision-making needs.
4. Collect and analyze interview data and implement resultant production rules on the model.

Tasks 1 and 2 were accomplished first to establish the feasibility of this effort. An interview instrument was developed for Task 3. And, corporate managers from several firms were interviewed to accomplish Task 4. Using this data, a prototype production rule model (called DECAIDS for DECISION AIDS) was constructed which supports managerial decision-making from the EMYCIN production rule system used at Stanford University. The purpose of this article is to introduce the need for a Decision Support System Model. A complete copy of this research can be obtained through University Microfilms International, 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106, from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93940, or the Defense Technical Information Center, Cameron Station, Alexandria, Virginia 22314. The title is “An Interactive Decision Support System for Technology Transfer Pertaining to Organization and Management”, 1980.     

Federal support for hospital construction in overbedded areas

This memorandum established policies and procedures to limit Federal financial support for the construction of hospitals in overbedded areas. The policy for Federal hospitals is that no new or replacement hospitals will be built in an overbedded area unless suitable, existing, non-Federal facilities cannot reasonably be acquired through purchase or lease. The policy for non-Federal facilities is that no Federal grants, loans, loan subsidies, or loan guarantees will be provided for hospital construction or renovation in an overbedded area, unless the proposed project is consistent with an approved local hospital facility plan or the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) determines that it is necessary. In addition, legislation and regulations will be proposed to revise the current Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement policies for costs related to hospital construction or renovation. Finally, legislation will be proposed to revise Federal tax exempt bond financing for hospital construction and renovation in overbedded areas. This memorandum also prescribes agency responsibilities and procedures for implementing these policies.     

欧洲共同体船东协会等国际组织赞赏欧洲议会支持《鹿特丹规则》

欧洲议会关于《2018年前欧盟海运政策战略目标及建议》的2010年5月5日决议[2009/2095（INl）]明确建议欧盟成员国应当推动《鹿特丹规则》的尽快签署、批准和执行,以构建崭新的海事责任体系。欧洲共同体船东协会（ECSA）、国际航运公会（ICS）、波罗的海国际海运公会（BIMCO）以及世界海运理事会（WSC）联合发布新闻,对这一建议表示欢迎。     

Political parties and corruption: Ten hypotheses on five vicious circles

Strong political parties and genuine competition among them feature in many anti-corruption strategies, but in practice the relationships between corruption and political parties are much more complex than is generally recognized. This article explores and illustrates ten hypotheses about those connections, drawing in detail upon Italian, Japanese, and other cases for evidence. These connections extend well beyond amounts and trends of corruption to include the motivations of party members and supporters, internal problems of party organizations, and links between parties and state institutions. Major concerns included party bureaucratization, membership, and resources; electoral volatility; party fragmentation; collusion among parties; and party influence in public administration. These hypotheses will be best understood, and tested, comparatively, but in so doing we need to look not only at basic causes of corruption but also at ways in which parties and other institutions reproduce the conditions that sustain it.     

The Nation as a Framework for Political Life

The stable existence of the state is impossible without nationalist discourse.     

Local television news and voter support for law enforcement

Television has become “the” medium of the masses in contemporary America. However, there has been very little systematic investigation about television’s impact upon agents of political authority, such as municipal police agencies. This research analyzes potential linkages between voter support for local police and voter viewing habits of local television news. The impact of television news upon voter support for police is assessed in the context of a multivariate model, which includes media and non-media predictor variables. Voter “support” for a municipal police agency is deemed a multidimensional concept and is measured in absolute and relative terms. The findings of this exploratory study suggest that local television news has minimal or no impact (positively or negatively) upon voter attitudes toward local police agencies. The inability of mediaand non-media variables to explain voter support for municipal law enforcement indicates the need for a completely new paradigm to guide research in this niche of criminal justice.