A decision support system model for technology transfer

Technology transfer is the process by which technology originating at one institutional setting is adapted for use in another. A major impediment to the implementation of new technologies to assist with mangerial decision-making problems is a lack of communication between the technology and management communities. Development of a tool designed to bridge the technology transfer gap was the goal of this research. The result is a prototype software package which may be used on an interactive computer terminal by a manager for assistance in designing a decision support system (DSS). The four primary research tasks were:

1. Develop a conceptual model of the DSS design process.
2. Select and adapt, or create, appropriate software to mechanize the model.
3. Develop a knowledge base to describe the interactiveness of various organization variables and managerial decision-making needs.
4. Collect and analyze interview data and implement resultant production rules on the model.

Tasks 1 and 2 were accomplished first to establish the feasibility of this effort. An interview instrument was developed for Task 3. And, corporate managers from several firms were interviewed to accomplish Task 4. Using this data, a prototype production rule model (called DECAIDS for DECISION AIDS) was constructed which supports managerial decision-making from the EMYCIN production rule system used at Stanford University. The purpose of this article is to introduce the need for a Decision Support System Model. A complete copy of this research can be obtained through University Microfilms International, 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106, from the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California 93940, or the Defense Technical Information Center, Cameron Station, Alexandria, Virginia 22314. The title is “An Interactive Decision Support System for Technology Transfer Pertaining to Organization and Management”, 1980.     

The Situation in Libya and the ICC’s Understanding of Complementarity in the Context of UNSC-Referred Cases

The PTCI’s decision on the admissibility of the case against Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi and the subsequent AC Judgement are the first expressions of the ICC’s understanding of complementarity in Article 13(b) cases. Admissibility decisions display how the ICC attempts to strike the balance between international justice and states’ right to exercise their territorial criminal jurisdiction. In relation to cases triggered by UNSC referrals, these decisions also mark the delicate moment in which the ICC’s interaction with the politics UNSC is unveiled. In the case against Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi the ICC seems to have taken deferent approach toward the highly authoritative mechanism that triggered the case. Legally speaking, these decisions might appear as a missed opportunity. They fail to provide a conclusive clarification of the parameters of the ‘same case’ test. First, the AC did not subscribe to the offence-specific interpretation of the ‘same conduct’ test embraced previously by PTCI and, in the name of consistency with the Court’s previous case law, reverted to the incident-specific approach adopted in Lubanga. However, the case-by-case approach adopted by the AC undermines the legal certainty that the AC meant to achieve in the definition of the admissibility test. Moreover, the AC has failed to appraise the PTCI’s conclusion that domestic implementation of international crimes is not necessary for the purposes of successfully challenging the admissibility of a case. Finally, in light of the constraints imposed by Article 17(2) on the relevance of due process violations, the PTCI’s decision to reject on the grounds of ‘inability’ as opposed to ‘unwillingness’, which again the AC did not consider, could be seen as evidence of a deferent stance toward the UNSC.     

Search for the Hidden Punishments: An Alternative Approach to Studying Alternative Sanctions

Objectives

Most existing studies of sentencing focus on the decision of whether or not to incarcerate a convicted individual. However, many cases do not involve incarceration, and there is a considerable amount of freedom to mete out alternative sanctions as part of a sentencing decision. This study addresses this gap in the literature by investigating the patterns of sentences among those individuals not sentenced to prison.

Methods

This study used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify unobserved “classes” based on packages of sentences, which may involve both jail and non-incarceration alternative sanctions imposed on defendants not sentenced to prison. This study also demonstrates the potential use of LCA by (1) comparing and contrasting the results of LCA and the sentence severity scale approach, and (2) investigating how class membership could be explained by legal and extralegal characteristics of the cases.

Results

LCA identified four latent classes among individuals who were not sentenced to prison, two of which could not be differentiated by the severity scale approach. Regression models demonstrated that legal variables were better at explaining the incarceration decision, whereas extralegal variables were better at explaining some of the margins between the classes.

Conclusion

Compared with the incarceration models and severity scales, LCA revealed variations that could not be detected by either of the approaches. LCA also has the potential to be a helpful tool in future analysis of sentencing decisions utilizing large-scale, administrative datasets.

     

Custody decisions in Alabama before and after the abolition of the tender years doctrine

This study investigated the impact of the abolition of the tender years doctrine on custody decisions in divorce cases. This doctrine supported the presumption that the mother is the more suitable parent for young children. In March of 1981, the Supreme Court of the State of Alabama found this doctrine to be unconstitutional. To assess the hypothesis that this ruling had a significant effect on custodyrelated decisions, a sample of court records for divorce cases in an Alabama county was examined as representative of the state on a number of key variables. Overall, no significant differences were found on indicator variables for the comparisons before and after the ruling. There was neither an increase in custody grants to fathers nor an increase in custody requests by fathers.     

Two Meanings of ‘Reasonableness’: Dispelling the ‘Floating’ Reasonable Doubt

The ‘reasonable doubt standard’ is the controlling standard of proof for criminal fact finding in several jurisdictions. Drawing on decision theory, some scholars have argued that the stringency of this standard varies according to the circumstances of the case. This article contends that the standard does not lend itself to the ‘sliding‐scale’ approach mandated by decision theory. This is supported through investigation of the concept of ‘reasonableness’. While this concept has mostly been studied as it operates with reference to practical reasoning, scant attention has been given to the meaning that it acquires when referred to theoretical reasoning. Unlike in the former case, reasonableness does not in the latter depend on the reasoner's attitudes in favour of the outcomes of a decisional process. Therefore, since criminal fact finding is an instance of theoretical reasoning, the question whether in this enterprise a doubt is reasonable is not susceptible to a decision‐theoretic approach.     

Intergenerational Transmission: Physical Abuse and Violent vs. Nonviolent Criminal Outcomes

In this paper we test several specific hypotheses derived from the intergenerational transmission of violence thesis to see if exposure to physical abuse has a special role in the etiology of violence. We employ a systematic statistical approach using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Our findings suggest that a history of physical abuse is strongly associated with frequency of violence, but the association is not specific to violence and is mediated by their common association with nonviolent offending. Further, the association between physical abuse and violence is not significantly larger than the association between neglect or sexual abuse and violence. In summary, the data suggest that the association between abuse and violence is not unique to physical abuse and that the impact of physical abuse is not specific to violent behavior.     

NASA Technology Utilization Program: A concept paper on options

The NASA Technology Transfer Program has taken on a variety of roles during the past twenty years. This paper briefly reviews these roles. It presents then several organized approaches that could be adopted to maximize the cost/benefit of technology transfer from NASA to the private sector.     

Factor similarity of the Conflict Tactics Scales across samples,spouses, and sites: Issues and implications

Wide variations in prevalence estimates of marital aggression point to the absence of a uniform and adequate definition of marital aggression. To focus on the construct validity of Straus' (1979) Conflict Tactics Scales, the most frequently used measure of marital aggression, two studies were conducted. Based on responses to the Conflict Tactics Scales, two consistent factors (viz. Physical and Psychological Aggression) emerged in separate samples of 187 couples seeking therapy for marital problems, and 398 nonclinic couples in beginning marriages. The factor structure was consistent across clinic and nonclinic samples, sex, geographical sites, time, and socioeconomic status. Implications for the measurement of interspousal physical aggression are raised (e.g., mild, moderate, and severe aggression load on the same factor) and appropriate directions for further research on the construct validity of the Conflict Tactics Scales are suggested (e.g., conducting similar factor analyses on aggressive couples).     

The Impact of Anger on the Intimate Partner Violence Decision-Making Process

McFall’s (1982, 1989) Social Information Processing (SIP) model outlines different stages in cognitive processing and decision-making that may be deficient in men who engage in interpersonal violence (IPV). A decision-making task was developed to assess the utility of abusive and nonabusive behaviors among 32 men who engage in mild IPV, 32 maritally distressed men, and 32 nondistressed men. Because anger impacts appraisal and decision-making (e.g., Lerner and Tiedens in Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 115-137, 2006), all participants were randomly assigned to an anger induction or neutral induction condition. As hypothesized, the perceived utility for abusive behavior was greater for angry abusive men and the perceived utility of control appeared to significantly contribute to this difference. Specific deficits in the IPV group were found, supporting a SIP model of IPV, aiding in understanding the function of violent behavior. Despite study limitations, these findings have implications for enhancing specific skill training components of treatment for abusive men.     

Searching for the source of technical inefficiency in Italian judicial districts: an empirical investigation

In this paper, we conducted a two-stage analysis of technical efficiency in Italian judicial districts by focusing on civil cases in 2006. Unlike most of the works that apply the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to study the justice sector, in the first stage, we employed the smoothed bootstrap procedure to generate unbiased technical efficiency estimates. In the second stage, we used a semi-parametric technique (Simar and Wilson in J Econom 136(1): 31–64, 2007) that produces a robust inference for an unknown serial correlation between efficiency scores. Our results show that technical efficiency is explained by demand factors and supports the conclusion that opportunistic behaviour from both claimants and lawyers negatively affects technical efficiency in Italian judicial districts.     

Promoting awareness and prevention of child sexual victimization using the Red Flag/Green Flag program: An evaluation with follow-up

This study describes an evaluation of a school-based sexual abuse awareness and prevention program that featured the “Red Flag/Green Flag People” coloring book and included presentation of a film (“Better Safe than Sorry II”) and discussion of hypothetical and actual experiences involving inappropriate physical touching. Children, parents, and teachers from two experimental schools participated in the program and were compared to similar groups from a control school. Outcomes were evaluated using pre-post (2-month) assessment questionnaires. Among the findings obtained, experimental group children reported learning more about the differences between good and bad touching, and being more likely to both report instances of sexual victimization and utilize program-specific preventive skills, relative to controls. Parents exposed to program materials acknowledged greater improvements in knowledge about program goals and more positive communication at home about abuse. Although no significant differences were obtained for teachers, the ratings for one experimental group were consistently higher than those of the other groups. Staff volunteers evaluated the program as overwhelmingly positive and without adverse effects. Still, some children from all groups reported being touched inappropriately. Some of these improvements were also noted for the experimental group at 6-month follow-up assessment. The findings were discussed in the context of conceptual, clinical, training, and empirical considerations.     

Cross-Validation of Supplemental Test of Memory Malingering Scores as Performance Validity Measures

Assessment of the validity of neuropsychological test data has become an ensconced aspect of the assessment process. Among the more popular free-standing performance validity measures (PVMs) is the Test of Memory Malingering (Tombaugh 1996). Given the popularity of this measure, a number of researchers (i.e., Trial 1 (Denning, 2012); TOMMe10 (Denning, 2012); Albany Consistency Index (Gunner, Miele, Lynch, & McCaffrey, 2012)) have sought to expand its utility by increasing the number of scoring approaches associated with its administration. This paper aimed to cross-validate prior work by examining the performance of these measures in a mixed clinical sample of veterans referred for neuropsychological evaluation. All five examined measures provided good to excellent discrimination of patients determined to be putting forth poor effort based on failure of two or three alternate measures of performance validity. Traditional scoring approaches revealed high rates of specificity, with lower rates of sensitivity. The newer measures performed well for both sensitivity and specificity at higher base rates. However, predicted performance in low base rate populations (i.e., 0.10) using the newly derived scoring failed to reach predetermined cutoffs for specificity (0.90). Further examination of the cumulative performance of the scoring approaches indicated that administration of only two initial scoring indices was necessary to obtain a high rate of classification.     

Conditional Race Disparities in Criminal Sentencing: A Test of the Liberation Hypothesis From a Non-Guidelines State

Objectives

To test the liberation hypothesis in a judicial context unconstrained by sentencing guidelines.

Methods

We examined cross-sectional sentencing data (n = 17,671) using a hurdle count model, which combines a binary (logistic regression) model to predict zero counts and a zero-truncated negative binomial model to predict positive counts. We also conducted a series of Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that the hurdle count model provides unbiased estimates of our sentencing data and outperforms alternative approaches.

Results

For the liberation hypothesis, results of the interaction terms for race x offense severity and race x criminal history varied by decision type. For the in/out decision, criminal history moderated the effects of race: among offenders with less extensive criminal histories blacks were more likely to be incarcerated; among offenders with higher criminal histories this race effect disappeared. The race x offense severity interaction was not significant for the in/out decision. For the sentence length decision, offense severity moderated the effects of race: among offenders convicted of less serious crimes blacks received longer sentences than whites; among offenders convicted of crimes falling in the most serious offense categories the race effect became non-significant for Felony D offenses and transitioned to a relative reduction for blacks for the most serious Felony A, B, and C categories. The race x criminal history interaction was not significant for the length decision.

Conclusions

There is some support for the liberation hypothesis in this test from a non-guidelines jurisdiction. The findings suggest, however, that the decision to incarcerate and the sentence length decision may employ different processes in which the interactions between race and seriousness measures vary.

     

Industrial application of a government laboratory's research — The SIROTECH experience

CSIRO — Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization — is a large federal government research body with a central role in generating technology for the country's industrial development in the broad. The Organization has recently developed and reoriented its policies, procedures and mechanisms to provide stronger technological support for Australia's manufacturing industries: industries which are generally accepted to be badly in need of technological innovation. This article discusses the background to the changes made and the alternative pathways that were available to the Organization to effect the changes. It concentrates on the decision to establish a free-standing technology transfer and commercial assessment company, SIROTECH Limited. The article identifies the steps taken to bring the company to be, even after only two years' operation, a vital and valued part of CSIRO's system for planning, pursuing and applying industrial research with, and for, Australian industry. The main principles underlying the apparent success of the SIROTECH experience are identified.     

A Sensitivity Analysis of Egocentric Measures of Peer Delinquency to Latent Homophily: A Research Note

Objectives

Egocentric measures of peer delinquency, obtained through a census of a social network, have become the preferred operationalization for examining the relationships between social influence and delinquency. Studies regressing ego’s delinquency on the delinquency of nominated friend/s (i.e. alter/s) conclude that a statistically significant coefficient provides evidence of social influence. However, the inferences drawn from these studies may be biased by the introduction of artificial statistical dependence as a consequence of using social network data in a regression framework. Recent work (Shalizi and Thomas Sociol Methods Res 40:211–239, 2011) shows that latent homophily, or unmeasured confounding of observables, may lead to nonzero estimates of social influence, even if there is no causal significance. To examine this possibility, sensitivity analyses have been created (e.g. VanderWeele and Arah Epidemiology 22:42–52, 2011; VanderWeele Sociol Methods Res 40:240–255, 2011) to determine the robustness of an estimated coefficient to latent homophily.

Methods

In this research note, I examine the robustness of estimates for social influence from two articles (Haynie Am J Sociol 106:1013–1057, 2001; Meldrum et al. J Res Crime Delinq 46:353–376, 2009) using egocentric measures of peer delinquency.

Results

Findings indicate that for large, precise point estimates, highly improbable conditions are needed to explain away the effects of social influence. However, less precise point estimates (i.e. large standard errors) are more sensitive to latent homophily.

Conclusions

The analyses indicate that studies using egocentric measures should conduct sensitivity tests, particularly when the estimated effect is weak and/or has a relatively large standard error. Scripts written in the free programming language R (R Core Team R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, 2012) are provided for researchers to conduct such analyses.     

Plea decision-making by attorneys and judges

Objectives

Approximately 95 % of convictions in the United States are the result of guilty pleas. Surprisingly little is known about the factors which judges, prosecutors, and defense attorneys consider in these decisions. To examine the legal and extralegal factors that legal actors consider in plea decision-making, we replicated and improved upon a 40-year-old study by asking legal actor participants to review a variety of case factors, and then make plea decisions and estimate sentences for pleas and trials (upon conviction).

Methods

Over 1,500 defense attorneys, prosecutors, and judges completed an online survey involving a hypothetical legal case in which the presence of three types of evidence and length of defendant criminal history were experimentally manipulated.

Results

The manipulated evidence impacted plea decisions and discounts, whereas criminal history only affected plea discounts (i.e., the difference between plea and trial sentences). Defense attorneys considered the largest number of factors (evidentiary and non-evidentiary), and although legal actor role influenced the decision to plead, it did not affect the discount.

Conclusions

In replicating a landmark study, via technological advances not available in the 1970s, we were able to increase our sample size nearly six-fold, obtain a sample representing all 50 states, and include judges. However, our sample was nonrepresentative and the hypothetical scenario may or may not generalize to actual situations. Nonetheless, valuable information was gained about the factors considered and weighed by legal actors.

     

On the Relation between Form and Substance in Law

Abstract. In this paper the author deals with some theoretical aspects of Robert Summers' last book ( Summers 2006 ). In particular, he concentrates on the hazy relationship between form and substance in Summers' theory. In order to analyze some major difficulties entailed in the thesis that form and substance are different and independent things, the author discusses three specific questions: (1) the difference between form and substance; (2) the possibility of a form meant to be value‐neutral; (3) how to distinguish a form‐centered approach from a formalistic approach when one has to interpret a statute. This last question is dealt with through examples taken from two legal decisions. * * Abstract by Marco Goldoni.
     

Technology-transfer strategies of DOE's conservation programs

This paper examines the process by which R&D results funded by the Office of Conservation and Renewable Energy (CE) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) have generated commercial applications. It looks at examples of technology-transfer procedures and activitees across three of CE's component offices that correspond to the major energy end-use sectors: transportation, buildings, and industry. On the surface, the conservation programs would appear to have little strategic consistency and, therefore, lack the clear leadership many seek in a technology-transfer program. However, as an alternative to strategic consistency, one may tailor the technology-transfer approach of each program to its unique circumstances. This paper presents case studies of such tailoring, in which the diversity of approaches mirrors the complexity of the energy end-use markets and the private-public interests that must be negotiated to successfully commercialize energy-saving innovations. The paper discusses the lessons learned about the conditions requiring adaptive design and the structures and practices that have been proven effective.