Toward an effective international legal order: from coexistence to concert?

In forbidding the use of force except in self‐defence against armed attack or when authorised by the Security Council, the UN Charter appears to be the culminating development of a system of international order based on the doctrine of state sovereignty. The cumulative result of international‐law‐related acts, omissions and declarations of the Bush administration since its inception can be construed as a fundamental challenge to the sovereign state system. The administration's stated security strategy is one possible response to undoubtedly grave challenges to national and human security. In fact, only an institutionalised partnership between the US and regional powers such as China, India, Brazil and Germany can hope to address those challenges successfully, in part because only it would have the requisite legitimacy. That partnership or concert could be organised within the UN framework, albeit intensifying its hierarchical elements.     

Toward a world population program

Problems facing the less developed countries in the field of family planning are inadequate funds, weak administration, insufficient personnel, and sometimes lack of governmental will. To close the "family planning gap," the gap between the number of married women who now have access to modern birth control techniques and the number who would use them if given the opportunity, in the less-developed world as a whole would cost an estimated $3 billion ($2 billion if the People's Republic of China is excluded). The author develops 8 national and international guidelines for the tackling of the population problem. Among other points the guidelines state that assistance to a country in family planning should be solely at the request of that country and that national assistance should be related maximally to the work of international organizations. The history of United States and international efforts to deal with the world population crisis are detailed. During 1962-1967 the United States and the United Nations created decisive policies granting family-planning assistance to less-developed countries. The author urges a world population program, directed by the U.N. and financed by a special fund of voluntary contributions, to increase U.N. and regional economic commission staffs concerned with family planning, develop training centers for family planning personnel, and develop pilot or demonstration projects to get national or regional programs under way.     

Toward a Program-Based ADR Research Agenda

Program evaluation research is often too narrowly focused to build theoryabout dispute resolution while theory-driven ADR research is frequentlytoo far removed from programmatic realities to inform practice. To developan ADR evaluation research agenda that connects theory and practice, weneed to consider: making ADR context a central focus of research; undertakinga fuller account of the processes and the work of third parties inrelation to what skills and orientations parties bring with them to ADR asnegotiators; widening our view of ADR impact or result; and reexaminingwhat research methods are best for studying ADR programs. By shiftingour perspectives, placing negotiating parties closer to the center of ourstudy of ADR, and grounding research in the contexts that matter to policy-makersand practitioners, we could significantly advance research onthird-party intervention.     

Toward a Theory of Negotiation Precedent

It is remarkable that precedents and their use have not been well explored within the negotiation literature. In this article, I examine the sparse knowledge of precedents and offer a preliminary framework for understanding the role of precedents in negotiation, including how negotiators establish and apply them. Precedents can either evolve randomly or be created with strategic intent. Understanding precedents generally involves examining how negotiators build, adopt, avoid, and reject them. In this review of the existing literature, I identify twelve concepts and paradigms that are particularly relevant to our understanding of negotiation precedents. I also establish a research agenda and identify three methods for further developing our knowledge of precedents: applying path dependence theory from the field of international relations to a negotiation context; conducting experimental research in a laboratory setting involving subjects engaged in negotiation exercises that contain opportunities to apply precedents; and conducting field research with a focus on case methodology grounded in negotiation linkage theory and theories of negotiation dynamics. Finally, in this article, I formulate a two‐part framework on building and applying precedents, and offer managerial guidance for the negotiation practitioner. Precedents serve as a strategic technique and provide a source of power at that point in a negotiation when decisions are made.     

Toward a New Paradigm for International Petroleum Trade

Petroleum is not just a commodity but a vital strategic asset with an impact on almost all aspects of the global economy. Although petroleum products are widely used all over the world, petroleum reserves, production and refineries are dominated by a handful of countries.     

世界向"新时期"转变

“9·11事件”是冷战结束后最具标志性的事件。值此“9·11”五周年之际,《现代国际关系》编辑部举办了“‘9·11’以来国际形势变化与中国外交”专题研讨会,邀请在京二十余位国际问题专家就五年来的国际形势变化、反恐形势、当前国际体系中的深层矛盾、大国关系的调整、国际格局的演变趋势、美国反恐的得与失、美国国际地位及实力的升与降、中国国际地位与国际战略等问题进行了深入分析和探讨。现将与会专家学者的主要观点辑录刊发,以期对读者把握国际战略形势及理解中国对外战略有所裨益。     

Practice-Relevant Research in Mediation: Toward a Reflective Research Paradigm

Donald Schön has advanced the notion that a systematic understanding of professional practice can be built on the reflective insights of skilled practitioners. The reflective practitioner paradigm is well suited to mediation research. A study of divorce mediation illustrates how Schön's seminal ideas can be translated into research procedures with broad applicability to a variety of mediation settings.     

Toward a Multiprocess Model of Rivalry and the Democratic Peace

In this paper we examine recent efforts to combine quantitative research on the democratic peace with research on interstate rivalry. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we highlight problems with separately analyzing the processes associated with rivalry and the democratic peace. Specifically, we specify a multiprocess model and demonstrate that previous research on this topic may overestimate the pacifying effect of democracy on enduring rivalries. Since pairs of democracies are unlikely to experience interstate rivalry in the first place, the true effect of joint democracy is difficult to ascertain in a censored sample of interstate rivals. Our simulation results are consistent with historical data analysis that suggests that the pacifying effect of democracy is most pronounced in the enhanced probability of jointly democratic dyads averting the onset of rivalry. More generally, this article fits into a larger body of research that examines the confounding effect of selection bias on world politics research.     

Toward the Year 2000

To adapt and renew today's fraying international order, the West must partner more closely with democratic rising powers that remain ambivalent about existing international arrangements. There are four such ‘global swing states’: Brazil, India, Indonesia and Turkey. An effective engagement strategy will need to adjust the order's main pillars to enhance their appeal without transforming the fundamental character of the system in the process. It will need to influence what global swing states want through outreach to publics and private sectors. And it will need to make the case that all four can best manage China's rise by strengthening international rules of the road. If the West can enlarge the circle of countries that uphold the global order to include these rising democracies, the system that has long safeguarded international security and prosperity and promoted human rights will be able to endure.     

印度对阿富汗的软实力战略

塔利班倒台后,印度通过软实力战略来恢复其在阿富汗的影响力。该战略实施的具体路径包括文化影响、民主援助和发展外交,其动因主要是为了防止塔利班与基地组织卷土重来,以及遏制巴基斯坦等。印度对阿软实力战略尽管取得了一定的成效,但受到来自阿富汗宗教保守势力抵制、巴基斯坦反弹以及与美新战略冲突等因素制约,面临很大困境。在阿富汗政府启动与塔利班和解进程以及美国与北约可能撤军的前景下,印度可能会有限度地调整其既定战略。     

Saudi Arabia's Policy Toward non-OPEC Countries

The 2008 energy crisis raises questions with regard to Saudi Arabia's status in the global oil market in general and within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in particular. Over time, several circumstances such as disagreement amongst OPEC members, the challenge of the alternative energy industry, and the growing influence of petro-traders have restricted Saudi Arabia's influence on the oil market in general and within OPEC in particular. This commentary adds another dimension to the analysis of Saudi Arabia's status in the oil market, by defining the relations between Saudi Arabia and two leading and important oil exporters unaffiliated to any petroleum organisations: Russia and Norway.