The Rise of ISIS： Impacts and Future

ISIS： The Backbone of International Terrorist Forces Since June 2014, the extremist terrorist group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant （ISIL or ISIS） has expanded quickly and seized significant territory in Iraq and Syria. It not only threatens the very existence of the Iraqi government, but also has changed the nature of the Syria conflict, and its influence is spilling over outside of the region.     

美国反恐新政策解析

面对恐怖主义极端势力的强势进攻,美国最终从幕后走向前台,出台新政,希望"削弱并彻底摧毁""在伊拉克和叙利亚的伊斯兰国"(ISIS,以下简称"伊斯兰国")。新政具有广泛的综合性,实施以空袭为主的军事介入,将叙利亚危机嵌入反恐战争,同时组建网络新反恐国际联盟,开展人道主义援助等。可以说,由于"伊斯兰国"的崛起,奥巴马政府对伊拉克政策出现颠覆性改变,经历了从"撒手"到"重返"的转变。这其中既有美延续反恐、维护自身及盟友利益的需要,同时亦映射出美主导中东局势、保持领导力的实质。但在奥巴马剩余任期不到两年的情况下,美国不会大幅度调整其中东政策,会出现从克制、收缩到进取、干预政策的小幅回摆。     

The Impact of Islamic State on U.S.Middle Eastern Strategy

On September 10, 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama announced a new strategy for fighting the extremist group, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham （ISIL）.1 It is generally considered that this marks a major turn in US＇ Middle Eastern strategy, and observers have commented that the U.S. may have got itself once again ＂mired in the Middle East＂. How can we accurately assess U.S. Middle Eastern strategy？ And how should we read Obama＇s ＂anti-terror New Deal＂？ This paper tries to answer these questions as well as analyze the U.S.＇ overall American Middle Eastern strategy.     

美国与主要伊斯兰国家的关系：重塑与改造

当前,美国与主要伊斯兰国家的关系,既是美国与伊斯兰世界战略关系的政策体现,也是双方关系宏观架构的微观反映;既显示出这对战略关系的共性,也因地区和国别差异而具有各自特点。美国与"大中东"的土耳其、埃及、沙特、伊朗、伊拉克、叙利亚、苏丹、利比亚、阿富汗、巴基斯坦,以及中亚5国     

Diplomatic and Security Strategies of the Obama Administration： Has the ＂Time of Change＂ Come？

It is of great significance to study the diplomacy and security strategies of the Obama administration which took office on 20th January 2009, not only because of the current global financial crisis but also because of Obama＇s ＂politics of change＂, a slogan raised by him in the campaign. How to lead America out of the seemingly ＂still deteriorating domestic financial and economic dilemma is not only the most important criterion for judging Obama＇s governance capability but also the biggest obstacle affecting the new Democrat administration＇s domestic and foreign policies. To analyze the adjustments of the Obama administration＇s foreign and security policies, we must focus our attention on how it will take corresponding measures to overcome the financial crisis and how to put its campaign slogan ＂politics of change＂ into practice. In retrospect of the Obama administration＇s first three-month performance, the ＂politics of change＂ promised by him has dramatically evolved into the ＂diplomacy of change＂ first. In the following sections, we will thoroughly analyze the trend of the new administration＇s diplomatic and security strategies on the basis of its first one-hundred-day performance.     

Analysis on the 2008 Presidential Election of the United States

Since the beginning of the year of 2007, the Democratic and Republican Parities in the United States have launched another round of contest for 2008 presidential election. Each party has its own advantages and distinctive campaign strategies. Their respective candidates are staging eye-catching campaign activities.     

Readjustments and Difficulties in the United States＇ Middle East Policy

At the beginning of his second term of presidency, Barack Obama made his first foreign visit to Israel, Palestine and Jordan, and held discussions with the leaderships of these countries on Israeli- Palestinian peace talks, the Syrian crisis and the Iranian nuclear issue. Secretary of State John Kerry also paid a visit to Turkey, Saudi Arabia,     

After Iraq,Who Will Be the Next Strategic Target of the United States？

<正>On September 1st, 2010, President Obama fulfilled his campaign commitment by withdrawing the combat troops from Iraq, which marked the official conclusion of combat operations of US troops in this country. Although people may have different judgments     

“New Particles” of the Changing World Situation

The world situation, as always complicated and volatile, has seen some “new particles” after the war on Iraq. This is a special war that has affected the whole world. The course and consequences of the war have exemplified the fever pitch of the U.S. unilateralism and the heavy cost thus paid by the U.S. They have also resulted in the changes of relations between major powers,     

New U.S.-Russia Nuclear Disarmament Treaty And the Myth of ＂No Nukes＂ World

U.S. president Barack Obama and Russian president Dimitri A. Medvedev recently signed a new U.S.-Russia treaty on cutting offensive strategic weapons which has some positive impact on promoting the process of nuclear disarmament in the world. Seen from a deep perspective, however, the new treaty is mainly of symbolic significance with limited role in reality.     

Islamic State in Focus

Islamic State has rapidly become a new threat to the international community.It is now staging terrorist attacks in a long list of Western countries including Canada,Australia and France.Compared to Al Qaeda,Islamic State is characterized by the following:1)Its ultimate goal is to find Utopia.This attracts jihadists from around the world;they are following a call to settle the historical feud between Islam and Christianity.It is also stirring up sectional strife between Sunnis and Shiites.Its demagogy has thus far recruited 15,000Jihadists from over 80 countries;2)It has been competing with Al-Qaeda in trying to launch terrorist     

Islamic State Reflects the Darker Side of International Politics

In revolutions, it is crucial to identify who is the enemy and who is the friend. But when we look at Islamic State it is difficult to distinguish between the two. If there are only two participants, and the relationship is linear, there is no problem. But when there are multiple players, the problem becomes complex. When each player has many targets, and these targets overlap, conflict and vary, the friend-foe relationship becomes multi-dimensional and is often stereotyped. Not only is it complicated but also it can change widely over time and circumstances. A good example is the political game vis-a-vis ISIL. On the surface, most countries and factions regard ISIL as the enemy, but actually the true relationship is very complicated.     

The Expansion of Islamic State in China's Periphery

From June 2014,ISIS has waged war and controlled territory in areas of Syria and Iraq.ISIS is also expected to seek to control areas in China's periphery in South Asia,Southeast Asia and Central Asia.This poses a direct threat to China's own security and development as well as to public safety.This article analyzes how ISIS is expanding into these areas and evaluates the scope of its influence in South Asia,Southeast Asia and Central Asia.It also examines ISIS ideology,political objectives and strategy.     

美国对"伊斯兰威胁"的认知与政策演变

"9·11"事件后,美国将伊斯兰极端势力特别是带伊斯兰色彩的恐怖主义确立为首要威胁,美国与伊斯兰极端势力的斗争成为影响国际局势变化的一条主线。与人类认识世界其他事物一样,美国对"伊斯兰威胁"的认知也经历了不断深入的过程。美国国内政治和国际地位的变化以及伊斯兰主义运动的发展都是影响美国对其认知与政策的因素。     

“伊斯兰教国“课题困扰马来西亚政局

伊斯兰教一直在马来西亚的政治生活中占有很重要的地位.自"9 ·11"事件以来,在马来西亚的政坛出现"伊斯兰教国"课题的争论,到目前为止,该课题的争论已成为全马来西亚社会的热点话题之一.这项课题的争论虽然主要在执政联盟与反对党联盟之间展开,但是也引起了包括穆斯林和非穆斯林的广大民众的广泛关注.那么,此项课题是如何提出的?各方又有什么反应?它对马来西亚未来政治有何影响呢?     

伊斯兰"卧格夫"制度及其当代演变

卧格夫制度,既是伊斯兰经济制度的一个有机组成部分,又是伊斯兰教法的一个特殊部分;既是宗教性的,又是社会性的.这两重属性表明,卧格夫制度仅仅发生在伊斯兰国家或穆斯林社会群体中.因此,对伊斯兰卧格夫制度的研究不仅可以从一个侧面观察伊斯兰国家的经济脉动,而且可以探究穆斯林"乌玛"之间的互助遗风.当代伊斯兰教法学家应该运用"创制"学说,对卧格夫的用益做出新的诠释,使其在伊斯兰社会或穆斯林社群中发挥更大的经济效益和社会效益.     

也论当代伊斯兰教的"圣战"观--兼与叶青先生商榷

《现代国际关系》2006年第1期发表了叶青先生《试析当代伊斯兰圣战观》。该文明确提出:伊斯兰教“并不存在”“统一的圣战观”。①本文则认为:伊斯兰教追求和平但不回避战争,不应否认“统一的”伊斯兰“圣战”观的存在。伊斯兰“圣战”观具有一般“圣战”观的根本特征:以“战”为实,以“圣”为名,强调战争的自卫性,在战争目的的神圣性下强调战争手段的道德性。伊斯兰教的“圣战”观可能被极端化,而且根源就在于伊斯兰教自身。但是,这种极端化的“圣战”观完全背离了伊斯兰教的本义。     

Confronting Islamist Insurgencies in Africa: The Case of the Islamic State in Mozambique

The proliferation of Salafi-jihadi insurgencies across Africa challenges the United States’ counterterrorism approach. From its inception, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique was driven by local and foreign dynamics, which have been complicated by additional external intervention in the conflict. Using the Cabo Delgado insurgency, we demonstrate how efforts to address its global dimensions, such as the group's affiliation with the Islamic State, can work against attempts to mitigate its local drivers. We conclude with recommendations for a more effective U.S. response that takes both the local and global dynamics into account. This article builds on our February 2021 report “Combating the Islamic State's Spread in Africa: Assessment and Recommendations for Mozambique,” published by the American Enterprise Institute.     

美国-伊斯兰世界关系与"文明的冲突"

美国与伊斯兰世界间互不信任、渐行渐远成为国际关系的重要特点。导致双方关系紧张的原因很多。“文明冲突”的因素的确存在 ,但主要应归因于美国的相关政策。冷战结束以来 ,意识形态斗争并未完全被“文明的冲突”所取代 ,价值观的对立与“碰撞”凸显。不同价值观并非水火不容 ,关键是避免将自己的价值观强加于人。现在还不能说不同文明之间已经全面发生冲突 ,但是迫切需要进行文明间的对话