POVERTY, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND COMMUNITY CRIME RATES

This paper examines the relationship between crime rates and aggregate economic conditions for 57 small social areas. The principal analyses address a continuing controversy—are community crime rates associated with absolute poverty, relative poverty (i.e., income inequality), or both. Using victimization data from 57 small residential neighborhoods, the analyses examine the association between absolute and relative poverty and rates of violent crime and burglary. The findings indicate that absolute poverty is more strongly associated with neighborhood crime rates, although the relationship is conditional on the type of crime considered. The implications of the findings are discussed within a perspective of community social control.     

Using data on offender mobility in ecological research

This article presents some findings on neighborhood structure, police recorded crime, and offender mobility for the city of Utrecht, the Netherlands. The highest crime rates were found in the inner-city neighborhoods. The findings further show that the occurrence of different types of petty crime in residential neighborhoods is associated with different neighborhood characteristics. It was found that offenders reside predominantly in lower-social status neighborhoods. Using data on offender mobility it is shown that violent crime and vandalism are the more locally committed crimes, as compared to residential burglary and other property crime. Finally, it is proposed that data on offender mobility can be used to gain more insight into the link between certain neighborhood characteristics and crime.     

Short-term trends in crime and delinquency: A comparison of UCR,NCS, and self-report data

This study examines short-term (five- to ten-year) trends in crime and juvenile delinquency using FBI Uniform Crime Reports data on arrests and offenses known to the police, National Crime Survey data on victimization, and National Youth Survey data on self-reported delinquency. The focus is on FBI Index offenses, but less serious offenses are also considered. FBI statistics indicate generally increasing rates of crime, while NCS and NYS data indicate stable and occasionally decreasing rates. Data on the self-reported incidence of delinquency are more compatible with arrest data than are data on the self-reported prevalence of delinquency, but the two self-report measures are more compatible with one another than with arrest data. Attempts to reconcile official statistics with victimization surveys and self-report studies seem unlikely to overcome the differences among the sources when trends in crime, rather than rates of crime at a single time, are considered.     

Police patrol and the deterrence of crime

A nonrecursive model of the deterrent effect of police presence was formulated and tested for 26 cities. Victimization data were employed as measures of crime, unpublished FBI data on the number of police patrol units as the measure of levels of police presence, and data for 11 exogenous variables were derived from FBI and census reports. It was found that per capita, police are a positive function of rates of violent crime and that clearance rates are a positive function of police presence. However, some offenses that have traditionally been thought to be deterrable are not inversely related to clearance rates. The equations were re-estimated using official measures of crime and found to be more consistent with the deterrent hypothesis. It is suggested that official data may generate a spurious correlation. Finally, caution is suggested in consideration of alternative forms of police presence.     

The effect of police on crime,disorder and victim precaution. Evidence from a Dutch victimization survey

Using individual data from a large-scale Dutch crime victimization survey, we are able to expand the analysis of the effect of police on crime to crimes types that do not easily find their way into police statistics, and to public disorder and victim precaution. To address heterogeneity and simultaneity in the relation between police and crime, we model the police funding formula – used to distribute police resources across municipalities – to identify the endogenous variation in police levels. We use the remaining variation in police levels to identify the effect of police. We find significantly negative effects of higher police levels on property and violent crime, public disorder, and victim precaution. The effect on victim precaution is a hitherto largely ignored benefit of higher police levels not reflected in lower rates of crime and public disorder.     

About the authors

In recent years, afterschool programs have received support for their potential to reduce juvenile delinquency and victimization. This support stems largely from reports based on police incident data indicating that juvenile crime and victimization peak during the afterschool hours. However, prior studies of victimization surveys and self‐reports of crime suggest that delinquency is more elevated during school hours. Utilizing self‐report data from a sample of juveniles participating in an evaluation of afterschool programs in Maryland, this study shows that juvenile victimization and delinquency peak during the school hours, while substance use peaks during the weekend. Disaggregating by offense reveals, however, that the more serious violent offenses are elevated during the afterschool hours, while simple assault offenses are most elevated during school hours. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

A longitudinal analysis of factors associated with reporting violent crimes to the police

The use of generalized estimating equations and time-series methods for fitting longitudinal models in the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is discussed, with reference to the relation between the reporting of a violent crime to the police and previous victimizations. Two longitudinal models are fit to NCVS data to predict the likelihood of reporting a violent crime to the police based on characteristics of the victim and the incident and based on previous victimization experiences. In both models, it is found that higher reporting rates are associated with positive results accruing from reporting previous victimization to the police.     

Criminal victimization in South Korea: A multilevel approach

A growing number of studies in criminal victimization had integrated the individual model and the context model to examine the dynamics of influences from the predictors at different levels. Only a few studies, however, had explored the impact of multilevel factors upon criminal victimization outside the U.S. context. Using the survey data gathered in Seoul, South Korea, the current study tested the applicability of the multilevel approach in criminal victimization to the Korean context. The results were mixed. At the macro level, poverty and community cohesion were positively associated with victimization by street crime and residential crime, respectively. Inconsistent with the findings in the U.S. studies, however, community cohesion increased the chance of residential crime victimization, and residential mobility was not significantly associated with criminal victimization. At the micro level, avoidance behaviors and target hardening efforts were associated with more criminal victimization, contrary to the proposition by opportunity theory. These unexpected findings could be explained by the unique social and cultural characteristics of Korean society. The unique contexts of modern Korean society as well as the limitation of the current study are discussed.     

Reporting to the police in western nations: A theoretical analysis of the effects of social context

One of the most consistent findings in empirical studies using victimization data is that the decision to report victimization to the police is determined in large part by the seriousness of the crime. The police will be notified more often of crimes that involve more serious injury or greater monetary loss. These findings, however, may be due to the fact that most studies on reporting have been conducted using victimization surveys that devote a great deal of attention to the crime event and victim characteristics and much less to the social context of that event. As a result, influences on reporting operating at the neighborhood, jurisdiction, or nation level have been neglected. The aim of this paper is to bring social context into the discourse on reporting to the police by presenting a much more inclusive model of crime reporting. In addition, the influence of four aspects of macro-level social context on reporting are tested—the perceived competence of the police, institutionalization of insurance business, norm of conformity, and level of individualism—by merging incident-level data from the International Crime Victims Survey (ICVS) for 16 Western industrialized countries with nation-level data from various sources. Hierarchical logistic modeling is used to analyze the nested data. The perceived competence of the police has a positive effect on whether property crimes are reported.     

Preventing repeat incidents of family violence: analysis of data from three field experiments

Preventing repeat victimization is an area of criminology that has shown particular promise in recent years. Based on the premise that persons once victimized are at higher risk than others for future victimization, British officials developed successful programs that focus crime prevention efforts on victims. Of all crimes, family violence may have the highest repeat rate, especially in the first weeks after an incident is reported to the police. Accordingly, New York City officials developed an intervention program to reduce repeat incidents of family abuse. Three field experiments conducted during the 1990s evaluated whether or not this program, targeted at public housing residents who reported family violence to the police, reduced the rate of subsequent victimization. The findings produced within each study were not consistent across the studies; rather, these three experiments, separately analyzed, produce varying results. Since the composition of the samples varied across studies, however, one possible explanation is that this program has different effects within different populations. This paper reports outcomes from a series of analyses of pooled data from these three studies to address the inconsistencies. The results indicate that the intervention brought about greater reporting of subsequent abuse both to authorities and to research interviewers. The results are invariant across the three studies, indicating that greater reporting of abuse is not idiosyncratic to one particular population, and are consistent across the nature and source of outcome measures. These findings suggest the need for careful monitoring by the advocates and agencies that operate these types of programs and among those designing and testing future programs.     

WE NEVER CALL THE COPS AND HERE IS WHY: A QUALITATIVE EXAMINATION OF LEGAL CYNICISM IN THREE PHILADELPHIA NEIGHBORHOODS*

This article presents data from the completed first wave of a multiwave comparative study of crime, danger, and informal social control that focuses on youth living in three high‐crime neighborhoods in Philadelphia, PA (N= 147). The study is a purposive sample of delinquent and nondelinquent young men and women in one predominantly African‐American, one predominantly Latino, and one predominantly white neighborhood, and researchers have completed in‐depth interviews and self‐reports with each subject. This article focuses on the narratives that youth living in high‐crime neighborhoods build around their contact with police and the strategies the young people propose for crime reduction in their communities. The data illustrate that most youth in each neighborhood are negatively disposed toward police and that this is grounded in the lived experience of negative encounters with law enforcement. However, when youth expounded on what they thought would reduce crime, they overwhelmingly chose increased and tougher law enforcement. We analyze these findings to determine whether support exists for a subcultural approach or a cultural attenuation/procedural justice argument, and we explore the implications of our findings for community‐based crime control.     

Victimization surveys and the accuracy and reliability of official crime data in developing countriesPublications received

The accuracy and reliability of official crime data are always suspect because knowledge of crime depends on the independent decision made by each victim of whether or not to report her/his experiences to the police. Victimization surveys allow estimates of degrees of inaccuracy, but such research is rarely done in developing countries. The little research done on victimization and the police in developing countries shows that levels of nonreporting, reasons for nonreporting, and relations between the public and the police to whom one would report are vastly different among developing countries and between developing and developed countries. One cannot assume, therefore, that the impact of victim behavior on the accuracy and reliability of official data will be similar across countries.     

The Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Changes in Neighborhood Crime Rates

Objectives

This study investigated the extent to which immigrant concentration is associated with reductions in neighborhood crime rates in the City of Los Angeles.

Methods

A potential outcomes model using two-stage least squares regression was estimated, where immigrant concentration levels in 1990 were used as an instrumental variable to predict immigrant concentration levels in 2000. The instrumental variables design was used to reduce selection bias in estimating the effect of immigrant concentration on changes in official crime rates between 2000 and 2005 for census tracts in the City of Los Angeles, holding constant other demographic variables and area-level fixed effects. Non-parametric smoothers were also employed in a two-stage least squares regression model to control for the potential influence of heterogeneity in immigrant concentration on changes in crime rates.

Results

The results indicate that greater predicted concentrations of immigrants in neighborhoods are linked to significant reductions in crime. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications.

Conclusions

The findings challenge traditional ecological perspectives that link immigrant settlement to higher rates of crime. Immigration settlement patterns appear to be associated with reducing the social burden of crime. Study conclusions are limited by the potential for omitted variables that may bias the observed relationship between immigrant concentration and neighborhood crime rates, and the use of only official crime data which may under report crimes committed against immigrants. Understanding whether immigrant concentration is an important dynamic of changing neighborhood patterns of crime outside Los Angeles will require replication with data from other U.S. cities.     

Risky Firearms Behavior in Low-Income Families of Elementary School Children: The Impact of Poverty, Fear of Crime, and Crime Victimization on Keeping and Storing Firearms

This report examines possession and storage of firearms in low-income urban families with at least one child between 8 and 12 years of age. The data primarily consisted of responses to a survey administered to parents, but these data were supplemented by records obtained from discussion groups composed of children between 8 and 12 years of age. The data were collected from five low-income neighborhoods in a medium sized city in the Pacific Northwest as part of a larger study focusing on the presence of risk factors for substance abuse, violence, and gang activity. All five neighborhoods are known to be plagued by poverty, violence, substance abuse, and gang activity. To make our findings more understandable, we compared our findings from these neighborhoods to similar data from a middle-class neighborhood. Middle-class parents were twice as likely to have firearms in their homes, but were much less likely to keep them loaded and/or unlocked. High rates of victimization, fear of crime, self-protective behavior, and exposure to threats or attacks were associated with keeping firearms for protection and engaging in risky gun behavior in the home.     

EXAMINING THE (IR)RELEVANCE OF AGGREGATION BIAS FOR MULTILEVEL STUDIES OF NEIGHBORHOODS AND CRIME WITH AN EXAMPLE COMPARING CENSUS TRACTS TO OFFICIAL NEIGHBORHOODS IN CINCINNATI*

Different operational definitions of neighborhood boundaries could generate differences in empirical relationships between ecological dynamics and crime. As a call for research on whether aggregation bias is an issue for related studies, this note compares bi‐level models predicting re‐arrest for domestic violence with census tracts versus officially defined city neighborhoods as macro units. Results indicate that both types of units generate the same substantive findings at the aggregate and individual levels of analysis. Similarities also exist between these results and those from previous multilevel studies of crime and victimization despite differences in the aggregate units across studies (including block groups).     

The impact of the wilson administration on economic crime rates

Previous research, based upon the interrupted time-series analysis of monthly data, has demonstrated that changes in the organizational structure of police departments produce short-term changes in the level of reported crime. The present study extends this literature by examining the independent effects of a change in hierarchical control (i.e., the appointment of O. W. Wilson as the new chief of the Chicago Police Department) and changes, over time, in the ecological structure of Chicago on reported rates of economic crime. The multivariate analyses indicate that the failure to take into account organizational change leads to model specification error. We conclude that longitudinal, within-jurisdictional research, based on the analysis of UCR data, must take into account changes in police bureaucracies that can affect the production of official counts of crime.     

Measurement problems in official and survey crime rates

This paper analyzes sources of error in the two major methods we use to measure crime in America—official police statistics and victimization surveys. The two produce quite different pictures of the volume and distribution of crime, but it is not clear that this is because victim-based statistics are “accurate.” Each measurement procedure has its characteristic errors, some of which it shares with the other. Comparisons of official and survey data on crime are helpful in revealing the dimensions of these error terms, and they point out the analyses which must be conducted if we are to specify their exact proportions.     

Discrepancies Between Crime Reports and Crime Surveys:

The absence of strong zero-order associations between victimization and official crime rates for cities has been a puzzle for social scientists since the data for making such comparisons became available. Using the 26 large central cities for which data on both types of rates are available, we analyze the extent to which discrepancies between the rates can be accounted for by aspects of urban social structure that differ from city to city. After introducing such structural controls, we find a much closer correspondence between the two types of rates for motor vehicle theft, robbery, burglary, and forcible rape, but not for aggravated assault and larceny-theft. These results are explained by citing evidence that we have identified some critical "suppressor" variables for the former crimes (i.e., variables that are positively associated with one type of rate and negatively associated with the other). By contrast, the heterogeneous nature of the phenomena subsumed by the latter two crime categories may preclude identification of a similarly parsimonious list of suppressors. One implication of these conclusions is that cross-sectional analyses of intercity variation in official rates may produce results that are in reasonably close correspondence with what would be obtained with victimization rates for certain index crimes, provided that sufficient structural control variables are utilized.     

INCOME INEQUALITY,RACE, AND PLACE: DOES THE DISTRIBUTION OF RACE AND CLASS WITHIN NEIGHBORHOODS AFFECT CRIME RATES?*

This study tests the effects of neighborhood inequality and heterogeneity on crime rates. The results of this study, which were obtained by using a large sample of census tracts in 19 cities in 2000, provide strong evidence of the importance of racial/ethnic heterogeneity for the amount of all types of crime generally committed by strangers, even controlling for the effects of income inequality. Consistent with predictions of several theories, greater overall inequality in the tract was associated with higher crime rates, particularly for violent types of crime. Strong evidence revealed that within racial/ethnic group inequality increases crime rates: Only the relative deprivation model predicted this association. An illuminating finding is that the effect of tract poverty on robbery and murder becomes nonsignificant when the level of income inequality is taken into account; this finding suggests that past studies that failed to take income inequality into account may have inappropriately attributed causal importance to poverty. This large sample also provides evidence that it is the presence of homeowners, rather than residential stability (as measured by the average length of residence), that significantly reduces the level of crime in neighborhoods.     

SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION OUTSIDE THE METROPOLIS: AN ANALYSIS OF RURAL YOUTH VIOLENCE*

In order to extend the study of community social disorganization and crime beyond its exclusive focus on large urban centers, we present an analysis of structural correlates of arrest rates for juvenile violence in 264 nonmetropolitan counties of four states. Findings support the generality of social disorganization theory: Juvenile violence was associated with rates of residential instability, family disruption, and ethnic heterogeneity. Though rates of poverty were not related to juvenile violence, this is also in accord with social disorganization theory because, unlike urban settings, poverty was negatively related to residential instability. Rates of juvenile violence varied markedly with population size through a curvilinear relationship in which counties with the smallest juvenile populations had exceptionally low arrest rates. Analyses used negative binomial regression (a variation of Poisson regression) because the small number of arrests in many counties meant that arrest rates would be ill suited to least‐squares regression.