PERCEPTUAL DETERRENCE AND DRINKING AND DRIVING AMONG COLLEGE STUDENTS*

This research examines the effect of perceived legal risks on drinking and driving. Data are from college students who were surveyed three times. Self-reports of recent drinking and driving at Time 3 are regressed on Time 1 and Time 2 measures of perceived risk of punishment. Prior moral evaluations, past drinking and driving, and previous legal intervention for drinking and driving are controlled. Perceptions of risk of arrest and severity of punishment are not related to subsequent drinking and driving, but moral tolerance, prior drinking and driving, and previous legal intervention all predict subsequent drinking and driving.     

A NOTE ON PERCEPTUAL DETERRENCE,RELIGIOUSLY BASED MORAL CONDEMNATION,AND SOCIAL CONTROL*

Empirical investigations of social control mechanisms are often limited to single sources of control, such as the efficacy of legal punishments. Because research has produced only moderate support for the hypothesis that perceived risk of legal punishments reduces the likelihood of nonconformity, some have searched sources of control that condition this relationship. such as the degree of moral condemnation individuals hold toward a criminal/delinquent act. However, relevant research has resulted in contradictory findings. Using cross-sectional and panel data, we obtained results that show that moral condemnation of an act conditions the deterrent relationship and that findings from previous studies may have underestimated the effect of legal deterrents given the presence of those in the population who refrain from marijuana use because it is believed to be sin fur. Implications of the findings for the relative deterrability of serious versus minor offenses and the relevance of this distinction for issues of social control are discussed.     

TESTING A BAYESIAN LEARNING THEORY OF DETERRENCE AMONG SERIOUS JUVENILE OFFENDERS*

The effect of criminal experience on risk perceptions is of central importance to deterrence theory but has been vastly understudied. This article develops a realistic Bayesian learning model of how individuals will update their risk perceptions over time in response to the signals they receive during their offending experiences. This model implies a simple function that we estimate to determine the deterrent effect of an arrest. We find that an individual who commits one crime and is arrested will increase his or her perceived probability of being caught by 6.3 percent compared with if he or she had not been arrested. We also find evidence that the more informative the signal received by an individual is, the more he or she will respond to it, which is consistent with more experienced offenders responding less to an arrest than less experienced offenders do. Parsing our results out by type of crime indicates that an individual who is arrested for an aggressive crime will increase both his or her aggressive crime risk perception as well as his or her income‐generating crime risk perception, although the magnitude of the former may be slightly larger. This implies that risk perception updating, and thus potentially deterrence, may be partially, although not completely, crime specific.     

THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro‐level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual‐level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self‐reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link—ignored in previous research—is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty‐four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence‐based rationales for more punitive crime control policies.     

HOMICIDE AGAINST THE ELDERLY: A RESEARCH NOTE*

By virtue of the type of data generally used (victim surveys), previous research on the victimization of the elderly is limited in two respects. Not only is the crime of homicide outside the domain of victimization data, but sample surveys uncover too few incidents of victimization of the elderly to permit in-depth analyses. Using the supplementary homicide reports from 1976–1985, we compared patterns and rates of homicide among the elderly and younger populations. Our results suggest that the elderly are in fact the least at risk for homicide generally, as has been reported for other crimes. When examining specific subtypes of homicide, however, the elderly are actually at greater risk than their younger counterparts for homicide committed during a robbery.     

TIME AGGREGATION AND TIME LAG IN MACRO-LEVEL DETERRENCE RESEARCH*

Recent arguments in research on individual-level deterrence suggest that the effect of perceived sanction risk on illegal behavior might occur over a shorter time period than the yearly lags typically incorporated in panel studies. This study raises the same issue for macro-level deterrence research by suggesting that panel studies using yearly data might have failed to capture the deterrent effect. The analysis uses ARIMA models with data aggregated monthly, quarterly, and semiannually to estimate the reciprocal effects between arrests and crimes for robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft in Oklahoma City from 1967 through 1989. No effect of crimes on arrests is found, but significant effects of arrests on crimes appear for three of the four offenses in the shorter temporal aggregations. The results suggest a need to reconsider conclusions based on panel studies that have used time aggregations and time lags that might be too long to uncover deterrent effects.     

CITIZEN GUN OWNERSHIP AND CRIMINAL DETERRENCE: THEORY,RESEARCH, AND POLICY*

Research on the general and specific deterrents emanating from citizenowned firearms is examined under assumptions about deterrence. Only slight and indirect empirical evidence for deterrence exists in the area of citizen gun ownership. The crime-reducing effects associated with public policies that support civilian gun ownership are balanced in light of other, negative public health factors associated with citizen-owned guns.     

A TEST OF THE BLACK SUBCULTURE OF VIOLENCE THESIS: A RESEARCH NOTE*

We use data from the General Social Survey (1983 to 1991) to test Wolfgang and Ferracuti's hypothesis that violent values are widespread among African-Americans. Contrary to the expectations of the black subculture of violence thesis, our analyses indicate that white males are significantly more likely than blacks to express violent tendencies in defensive situations and that there is no significant difference between white and black males in offensive situations, ceteris paribus. Thus, we have rejected, within the limitations of our data, the hypothesis that a unique subculture of violence exists among the general population of African-Americans in the United States.     

THE VIOLENT WEST REEXAMINED: A RESEARCH NOTE ON REGIONAL HOMICIDE RATES*

Studies by O'Carroll and Mercy and by Kowalski and Petee challenge the long-held view that the South leads the nation in homicide rates. Specifically, O'Carroll and Mercy find that when killings by state are disaggregated by race, the West has the highest levels of homicide for whites, blacks, and other races. Kowalski and Petee conclude that homicide rates in the South and the West have converged. We extend their research by examining the effect, on levels of killing, of metropolitan concentration of black and white populations within states and of the percentage of the white population of Hispanic origin within SMSAs. Results of these analyses show that the homicide rate for non-Hispanic whites remains highest in the South; no clear regional pattern exists for blacks.     

CONSERVATIVE PROTESTANTISM AND THE PERCEIVED WRONGFULNESS OF CRIMES: A RESEARCH NOTE*

This research addresses the relationship between conservative Protestantism and the perceived wrongfulness of crimes. In a recent study, Warr (1989) identified “nondiscriminators”—people who perceived a wide range of crimes to be equally morally wrong. Although lacking measures of religion, Warr hypothesized, based on their written comments, that the respondents used religious beliefs to assess wrongfulness. Since Protestant theology tends to view morality categorically, with no gradations between the extremes, those individuals who most strongly adhere to this doctrine may be the nondiscriminators. This study tests and finds strong support for this hypothesis, which has important implications for the recent shift toward increased punitiveness in sentencing, research concerning public perceptions of crime, and studies of religion.     

UNDERCOVER DECEPTION CLUES: A CASE OF RESTRICTIVE DETERRENCE*

Although studies on drug dealing have examined techniques sellers use to ensure against undercover infiltrations, none has explored the use of such techniques at the interactional level. The objective here is to address this void by exploring the perceptual shorthand dealers use to determine whether buyers in question are undercover. This perceptual shorthand processes one of two types of deception clues in making this judgment: trend discontinuity and interpersonal illegitimacy. Trend discontinuity is associated with police in formants and results from situations in which (I) familiar customers suddenly introduce unfamiliar others who wish to buy drugs and (2) familiar customers suddenly and signifcantly increase quantities they themselves desire to purchase. Interpersonal illegitimacy is associated with undercover agents and results from situations in which unfamiliar buyers emit certain physical and verbal “vibes” believed to be indicative of covert law en forcement personnel. Discussion focuses on the data's presuppositional and microstructural implications for restrictive deterrence (Gibbs, 1975). Data were drawn from semi-structured interviews with 32 semi-institutionalized heroin user-dealers located in a very large western US. city.     

RELIGION,DISCRIMINATORY ATTITUDES AND THE ORIENTATIONS OF JUVENILE JUSTICE PERSONNEL: A RESEARCH NOTE*

Advancements in the understanding of racial and gender disparity in case outcomes are evident in the theoretical and empirical refinements that emphasize the contingencies of decision making. In this article, we argue that a conservative world view reflects a patterning of attitudes that includes interrelationships among beliefs in a literal interpretation of the Bible and racial and gender stereotyping. Our hypothesis is that this conservative resonance will predict more punitive correctional orientations among a sample of juvenile justice personnel. The findings provide support for the existence of a conservative patterning of attitudes that predict punitive orientations. The resonance is less effective in explaining rehabilitative philosophies. The results have implications for assessing the issue of racial and gender bias in the juvenile justice system.     

CRACK DEALERS AND RESTRICTIVE DETERRENCE: IDENTIFYING NARCS*

Data drawn from semistructured interviews with 40 active street-level crack dealers are used to illustrate, apply, and expand the concept of restrictive deterrence. The article focuses on the perceptual shorthand dealers use to determine whether buyers in question are “narcs.” In presenting this shorthand, the article seeks to demonstrate how interactions among marketplace democratization (i.e., the idea of selling to as many different customers as possible to maximize profits), marketplace volatility, transactional brevity, and threats from law enforcement affect its complexity and refinement. Respondents operated out of a medium-sized, midwestern metropolitan area (population: 2.2 million) within a central city of 390,000.     

GENERAL DETERRENCE AND TELEVISION CABLE CRIME: A FIELD EXPERIMENT IN SOCIAL CONTROL*

This research examines the deterrent effect of a written legal threat on a group of persons who are known to be receiving an unauthorized premium cable television signal. The experiment attempts to determine (1) the overall violation rate: (2) the extent to which violators direr from a systematic random sample of cable signal customers (according to age, total household income, and gender); and (3) the deterrent effect of the threat of intervention. Additionally, a six-month follow-up was conducted to assess the duration of the threat's effect. Overall, two thirds of the subjects (n=67) reacted to the threat; the major reaction to the threat was an attempt to hide the violation. There were some differences found regarding participation in cable crime and deterrence, but none reached a reliable level of statistical significance. Regarding deterrence, the findings that males heeded the threat least and that the youngest and richest also showed low desistance rates after exposure to the threat are consistent with previous research. Regarding participation in cable crime, the youngest and richest seem to be involved more often in the pilfering of signals. The follow-up revealed that the deterrent effect of the intervention lasted at least six months. The benefits of using experimentation as a general deterrence research strategy are emphasized throughout.     

EXAMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY SERVICE AND CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR DURING THE VIETNAM ERA: A RESEARCH NOTE*

Throughout U.S. history, the military has played a role in the lives of a large proportion of the U.S. population. However, little research has focused on this topic, particularly in criminology. This study seeks to determine whether military service changes an individual's criminal behavior and/or whether the military provides another setting for the continuation of prior behavior. To address these questions, this study uses Wolfgang's 1945 Philadelphia birth cohort and Shannon's 1949 Racine, Wisconsin birth cohort data sets. Statistical methods were used to account for potential differences in selection and the presence of unobserved heterogeneity. Results suggest that military service reduces later offending in general. However, there is no significant effect of service on later violent behavior.     

SPECIFIC DETERRENCE IN A SAMPLE OF OFFENDERS CONVICTED OF WHITE COLLAR CRIMES*

It is generally argued that white-collar criminals will be particularly influenced by punishment policies. White-collar crime is seen as a highly rational form of criminality, in which the risks and rewards are carefully evaluated by potential offenders, and white-collar criminals are assumed to have much more to lose through sanctions than more common law violators. In this article we examine the impact of sanctions on the criminal careers of 742 offenders convicted of white-collar crimes in seven US. district courts between fiscal years 1976 and 1978. Utilizing data on court-imposed sanctions originally compiled by Wheeler et al. (1988b), as well as information on subsequent criminal behavior provided by the Identification Bureau of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, we assess the effect of imprisonment upon the oficial criminal records of people convicted of white-collar crimes. Comparing prison and no-prison groups that were matched in terms of factors that led to their receipt of a prison sanction, we find that prison does not have a specific deterrent impact upon the likelihood of rearrest over a 126-month follow-up period.     

DETERRENCE AND MORAL PERSUASION EFFECTS ON CORPORATE TAX COMPLIANCE: FINDINGS FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL*

Previous studies on tax compliance have focused primarily on the tax‐reporting behavior of individuals. This study reports results from a randomized field test of the effects of deterrence and moral persuasion on the tax‐reporting behavior of 4,395 corporations in Israel. Two experimental groups received tax letters, one conveying a deterrent message and the other a moral persuasion message. Three types of measures are used to evaluate compliance based on the magnitude of the difference‐in‐differences of means in 1) gross sales values reported to the authority, 2) tax dollars paid to the authority, and 3) tax deductions. Overall, both deterrence and moral persuasion approaches do not produce statistically significant greater compliance compared with control conditions. These results do not support the ability of a policy of sending tax letters to increase substantively the reporting of true tax liability or tax payments by corporations. However, these results also show that moral persuasion can be counterproductive: Corporations in this experimental group show an increase rather than a decrease in tax deductions, which translates into loss of state revenues. The implications for theory, research, and tax policy are discussed.     

A THEORY OF HOMICIDAL BEHAVIOR AMONG WOMEN*

This theory explains the homicidal behavior of women in a variety of settings. Structural, social, and cultural conditions of modern societies generate strain for all women, which produces negative affect. Women tend to internalize negative affect as guilt and hurt rather than externalize it as anger directed at a target. This results in a situation analogous to overcontrolled personality, and results in low overall rates of deviance punctuated by occasional instances of extreme violence. The conditions found in long-term abusive relationships and pre- or post-partum environments are more likely to produce this result, but the theory is not limited to explaining female homicide in these settings.     

GENERAL DETERRENCE THROUGH CIVILIAN GUN OWNERSHIP: AN EVALUATION OF THE QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE*

It has often been argued that civilian firearm ownership acts as a deterrent to crime. Much of the support for this claim is based on incidents that have called attention to the prevalence of privately owned guns. We examined several such incidents and failed to and persuasive evidence of a deterrent effect.     

SURVIVAL ANALYSIS AND SPECIFIC DETERRENCE: INTEGRATING THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL MODELS OF RECIDIVISM*

This study uses survival analysis to test propositions from specific deterrence theory. It examines the effect of a custodial sentence on time until rearrest, generally and under various conditions. Results suggest that for those with few ties to conventional society and for first-time arrestees, a sentence of incarceration increases the probability of rearrest. However, for arrestees with few ties and for experienced offenders, longer incarceration predicts longer time until rearrest.