俄罗斯第三届杜马选举结果透视

去年12月19日俄罗斯举行了第三届杜马选举,12月29日俄中央选举委员会公布了最终选举结果。按政党比例制进行的联邦选区总共选出225名代表。单席位选区选出216名代表。车臣选区因战争未举行选举,另有8个选区没有一位候选人达到法定选票而代表席位空缺。在政党比例制选举中,俄共得票24.29％,获67个席位,“团结”联盟得票23.32％,获64个席位,“祖国—全俄罗斯”得票13.33％,获37个席位,“右翼力量”联盟得票8.52％,获24个席位,日里诺夫斯基联盟得票5.98％,获17个席位,“亚博卢”得票5.93％,获得16个席位。其他党派和竞选联盟均未达到进入杜马的5％的门槛线。     

新加坡的集选区制度

一集选区制度是关于选区划分的一种制度，是新加坡现行选举制度的一个重要组成部分。它是由李光耀领导的新加坡人民行动党于１９８８年提出来的，为世界所首创。新加坡原来实行的是单一的选区制度，即根据国会议席，结合选民人数，把全国划分为与国会议席数目相等的选区，...     

日本通过众院选举制度改革

1994年11月21日,日本参议院全体会议以多数赞成通过众院选举改革法案,至此众议院改革法案成立。下次众议院大选(总选)将按新的选举制度进行。 这次选举改革,日本各大报纸均以大字标题刊登消息,称这是“众议院70年来的制度变更”。这就是说自大正14年(1925年)改小选区制为中选区制,废除城市独立选区制,改为郡与市平等选举出议员的众议院选举制度以来日本众议院选举制度又面临了一场重大的改革。中选举制战前持续了20年。二战后,又曾有过改革,昭和20年(1945年)日本修改选举法,规定原则上以都道府县多为1个选区,作为例外议员定额15人以上的,才分为两个选区,采取了大选区制,但不久,在日本国宪法下,昭和22年(1947年)又回到中选区制,以至今日。即自1925年以来,除战后不长时间外,一直采用中先区制(每一选区选出议员2～6人),它不同于小选区制(每个选区选1人),也不是大选区制(每个选区选出7人以上)。日本众议院议员现在定额为511人,是从全国529个选区中选举产生的。     

俄罗斯地区立法机关选举研究

2011年杜马选举后俄罗斯爆发了大规模的民众抗议。舞弊问题,特别是对于俄罗斯政治缺乏竞争的不满,是民众抗议的主要动因。对俄罗斯地区选举改革的分析,可以发现俄罗斯地区选举制度和政党制度,对于"政权党"存在一定的制度性扶持,这是政治竞争缺乏的重要原因之一。普京在第二任期开始了俄罗斯地区选举改革,目标是加强政党,尤其是联邦型政党在地区政治中的作用,降低地区政治精英的影响,维护联邦的统一和稳定。改革后,一方面政党作用得到大幅提升,国家稳定得到巩固;另一方面,地区选举制度从客观上对于"政权党"更为有利。比例代表制在地区选举中的广泛使用,以及其所涉及的选举名单形式、选举保证金、选举签名、门槛线和席位分配方法等各方面因素,在整个选举过程中为政权党提供了一定的制度性保障。     

2010年中期选举及其对美国内外政策的影响

在2010年中期选举中,共和党借助国内经济不景气的形势,夺取了众议院的控制权,大幅缩小了在参议院中与民主党席位的差距。共和党取胜的竞选方法包括:成功地将全国性议题与地方情况相结合,推出高素质的候选人,以及合理地使用竞选经费,集中力量制造角逐选区。此次中期选举的结果加剧了两党政治立场的极端化,增强了共和党的政治影响力,加大了奥巴马政府在制定和执行国内政策上的难度,并将由于选民态度的变化、国会及其委员会的构成和领导人的变动,而对美国外交政策和中美关系产生重要影响,也将对2012年的总统大选产生一定的影响。     

俄罗斯政局现状与前景展望

最近两年来俄罗斯经历了一系列令世人瞩目的政治变迁。1995年的国家杜马选举,俄共获三分之一的代表数,即157个席位,成为新议会四个党团中的最大的党团。1996年的总统选举经两轮较量,叶利钦以较大优势获得连任。随后俄总统义因严重的心脏病必须     

德国联邦议院选举审查制度考察——一项议会存续优先保障的制度设计

选举审查是指在选举的筹备,选举程序进行,结果的收集、统计与计算以及议席分配等过程中,对选举合法性与有效性予以审查的程序。在西方民主国家,选举审查一般是由议会中具有司法性质的委员会或法院进行。德国则采取先由联邦议院自行审查,联邦宪法法院享有终审权的混合审查模式。该模式运行的六十多年间,就联邦层面而言,数以千计的"选举异议"与二百多宗"选举审查诉愿",无一例成功挑战选举结果而导致问题选区重选。参选人口超过六千万人的联邦选举可以经受如此考验,与保守审慎、旨在对大选产生的代议制机关予以存续优先保障的路径选择息息相关。     

读家

环球热点A日本诸政党混战12月16日,日本将进行众议院大选。根据日本选举制度,众议院大选被称为是日本的总选举,获得超过半数席位的政党或执政联盟就可以组阁,党首自然就是首相。截至12月3日,已有12个政党角逐众议院席位,这是现行选举制度1996年实行以来,参选政党最多的众院选举。无论是否有能力向执政党地位发起冲击,各党...     

从2018年地方选举看俄罗斯左翼政党发展态势

俄罗斯地方选举的结果往往能够反映出俄罗斯的政治社会形势、中央地方关系的变化情况以及精英的流动和发展状况,对国家杜马选举甚至俄罗斯总统选举都有一定的影响。2018年俄地方选举呈现出不同以往的特点,普京支持的“统一俄罗斯”党不仅失去多个地区的领导权,在地区立法机构的席位也大幅缩水。相比之下,俄罗斯联邦共产党则取得了不错的竞选成绩,在所有参选地区的得票率都有所提升,大幅提高了在地区立法机构中的席位占比。但是由于政治当局的打压、左翼政党内部的分裂和俄罗斯联邦共产党自身的发展局限,俄罗斯左翼政党在短期内依然无法与强大的政权党抗衡。不断进行理论创新、加强党的自身建设、联合其他左翼政党和爱国力量,才是俄罗斯左翼政党复兴的长远之计。     

德国选举制度对政党政治的影响分析

本文在阐述选区代表制的一般含义和类型的基础上 ,分析了魏玛时期和战后德国不同的选举制度对其政党制度和议会政治所产生的不同影响。     

Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections

This article develops a forecasting model of seat shares in the House of Commons applied to general election outcomes. The model utilises past information about party seat shares, together with data from the polls gathered prior to the election, to forecast the number of seats won by the parties. Once it has been estimated the model will be used to make a forecast of the outcome of a possible general election in May 2005. The article starts by focusing on research into translating votes into seats, or the cube rule and its modifications. It then goes on to develop the forecasting model, which is based on electoral and poll data from 1945 to 2001.     

Forecasting the 2016 General Election in Jamaica

The objective of the article is to explain the methodologies and the findings of the 2016 Jamaican General Election forecasts. The Good Judgment Project’s CHAMPSKNOW system was applied using qualitative and quantitative methods. The research question was: what were the probabilities of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP) winning the 25 February 2016 General Election? The data were drawn from election results and macro-economic variables from 1962 to 2015; polls from 1976 to 2016; campaign ads; election newspaper stories; constituency fund disbursements and independent surveys in marginal seats. The results showed that the JLP had a greater number of ads with better and clearer policy contents than the PNP ads. The JLP also received more positive news coverage during the campaign. MPs who spent a large part of their constituency funds on welfare were more likely to win. The PNP had more garrison, traditional and marginal seats than the JLP so the PNP had the edge. Moreover, the data from the independent surveys and the macro-economic analyses indicated the likelihood of a PNP win. The national polls revealed a statistical dead heat but the forecasts started with the governing PNP having a slightly greater probability of winning because of its active political business cycle in which the PNP was rolling out programmes throughout the country in the election year. The forecasts were revised when the JLP narrowed the gap because the PNP refused to participate in the national debate, which generated negative news about the PNP. The final forecast said the election would be close with the PNP having the edge. However, the JLP’s tax plan was a wild card, which gave the party the edge with a one-seat victory.     

Constituency Delimitation and Electoral Authoritarianism in Malaysia

This article explains how the electoral one-party state of United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in Malaysia is maintained through constituency delimitation. It examines how the means of inter-state malapportionment, intra-state malapportionment, gerrymandering, pre-delimitation boundary changes and seat increase are used in the on-going delimitation exercises. Malapportionment and gerrymandering in the last cycle of delimitation exercises in 2003–5 had secured Prime Minister Najib Razak a comfortable 60% parliamentary majority in 2013 despite winning only 47% of popular votes. While Razak may suffer greater attrition of votes due to his global financial scandal involving Malaysia’s state sovereign fund, 1MDB, he may still win a bigger parliamentary majority in the upcoming election, which must be held latest by August 2018. The article questions if the First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) electoral system, which is not only susceptible to manipulations, but also very winner-takes-all in nature, suits Malaysia’s plural society.     

Electoral Cycles, Party Organization and Mobilization in Canada

Canadian political parties oscillate between periods of inter-election quiescence and electoral year mobilization. In this paper we measure, across a series of elections, organizational activity in inter-election periods as parties develop strategic positions and seek to reshape their bases, and then their subsequent mobilization strategies and successes. Our research strategy employs ecological models rooted in electoral district level data including party resources and activity (from annual financial accounts), census data describing the electoral districts, as well as conventional aggregate electoral data. Our initial models utilise evidence from Ontario, Canada's largest province, and cover several electoral cycles that witnessed a string of governmental turnovers. This analysis provides a more nuanced model of party systems than those based on simple election results. Even in a period of remarkable electoral flux, party activity and success appear to be deeply rooted in the diverse constituency social and political contexts of the system.     

论香港特別行政区立法会的功能和改革方向

在自由主义和民主主义结盟反对封建主义的历史进程中,形成了一套关于国家建构的系统学说。香港并非国家,但这套学说却在香港社会关于特别行政区立法会功能角色的讨论中拥有不小的影响力。片面强调"两制"差异,以自由主义代议制学说描摹一个地方行政单位的立法机构,终将沿着这套学说的国家建构逻辑挑战"一国"之本。本世纪初以来,香港特别行政区立法会出现内部对立、扩权,职能上轻立法、重监督的趋势和现象,与这种学说在香港社会的影响不无关系。就解决历史遗留的香港问题而言,"一国两制"是各方都能接受的"最大公约数",讲求平衡政府原则、混合政体设计的共和精神较契合香港特别行政区的这一政治现实,或可成为引导特别行政区立法会变革的方向之一。     

Double Punishment for Regional and National Incumbents: The March 2012 Regional Election in Andalusia

Confounding predictions, the 2012 Andalusian regional election resulted in a renewal of left-wing government as the conservative Popular Party failed to obtain an absolute majority of seats. The socialists, who had ruled the region for 30 years, came second but continued in power in coalition with the United Left, which increased its seat share. The article argues that the Andalusian election results should be understood in a multi-level governance perspective. For those who voted for the socialists, the hard austerity policies implemented by the Popular Party central government became more salient than the current performance of the regional government. The behaviour of unemployed voters is also key to understanding the election outcome.     

Taking Sides: Determinants of Support for a Presidential System in Turkey*

A key issue on the Turkish political agenda concerns a transition to presidentialism, with a constitutional amendment proposal submitted in December 2016. While the positions of political elites are well known, we lack a detailed analysis of the electorate’s views on such a transition. To fill this gap, we present cross-sectional and panel data collected over the period from spring 2015 to winter 2015–16. Partisanship emerges as the key factor shaping views on presidentialism, and reflections of the centre–periphery cleavage in Turkish politics are also visible. The shift of the Turkish nationalist constituency’s views in favour of presidentialism has been a significant trend in the aftermath of the June 2015 general election.     

Gorbachev's Social Contract

The Soviet economic slowdown is explained in the context of an eroding “social contract” between regime and society, established in the 1950s and defined as a set of norms, constituency benefits, and political-economic institutions which elite and public have regarded as legitimate means of regulating their mutual relations. Gorbachev must rebuild state legitimacy; the “objective,” mutually constraining relationship between economic system and state legitimation implies that a new social contract can serve as a “test” of Gorbachev's intent to pursue “radical” economic reform. Evidence suggests that prospects for radical reform have risen substantially since Gorbachev's election as General Secretary. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 830.     

A Transferable Incumbency Effect in Local Elections: Why it is Important for Parties to hold the Mayoralty

Does the outcome of the direct election of the head of the government influence the election of the legislative body? We test whether findings from research on divided government, contamination and incumbency effects observed at the national level can be transferred to the local level. In particular, we analyse quasi-presidential local government systems with a directly elected mayor. Our main hypothesis is that the party of the incumbent mayor systematically gains votes at the next council election. For our case of the German state Hesse we find a transferable incumbency effect after the introduction of the direct mayoral elections of about 3.7 percentage points. A more sophisticated model with several interaction effects specifies this incumbency effect.     

Support for Democracy and Political Opposition in Russia, 1993-1995

Ukraine's 2006 parliamentary election was deemed free and fair by outside observers, at least as compared to elections in other states of the former USSR and most notably as compared to the second (November) round of its 2004 presidential vote. In earlier research we applied several statistical forensic indicators to official election returns to assess the extent of fraud in that election and in Russia, and we used those indicators to confirm that Ukraine's December presidential runoff rerun was largely devoid of the fraud that undermined the November vote's legitimacy. Here we apply those same indicators to official returns from Ukraine's 2006 vote, not simply to confirm what observers conclude about that election but also to lend credence to the indicators themselves.