Post-Arab Spring: changes and challenges

This paper advances the proposition that post-Arab Spring politics are a product of globalisation’s economic and social liberalisation. The global market and privatisation have fundamentally deconstructed centralised autocratic rule over state and society, while facilitating corruption and selective development, culminating in public outrage. The political order of the Middle East and North Africa since the Arab Spring synthesises globalisation’s dialectic duality, in which economic integration has contributed to the demise of national authoritarianism, inciting communalism and political fragmentation. This paper analyses emerging political trends and challenges based on a comparative analysis of Egypt and Tunisia.     

Trade liberalisation in Brazil: Creating or exporting jobs?

Using the growth accounting and factor content approaches, this article looks at the impact of trade liberalisation on the structure and level of employment in Brazil over the 1990–97 period. The results support the argument that trade liberalisation in developing countries have a negative short‐term impact on employment — relatively small in Brazil's case ‐ which tends to be outweighed, in the long run, by a more labour‐intensive output mix.     

Democracy’s effect on economic growth: A pooled time-series analysis, 1951–1980

The relationship between democracy and economic growth has concerned social scientists since the 17th century, but recent democracy movements make this question especially important today. Do poor countries face a cruel trade-off between democracy and growth? Do democracy and growth go together as a “win-win” proposition? Or is democracy irrelevant to growth? Using pooled annual time-series data from 1951–1980 for 106 countries, including 88 non-core countries, we explore long-term and short-term direct and indirect effects of democracy on growth. Little or no direct effect emerges, but positive indirect effects appear via two mechanisms: a marginally significant effect via investment and a robust effect via government expenditure. Democracy also has a robust non-linear effect on economic growth via social unrest, inhibiting growth under non-democratic regimes and furthering it in highly democratic ones. Combining these findings, we conclude that democracy does not significantly hamper economic growth, and under many circumstances slightly boosts it.     

Neoliberal globalisation,the nation-state and financial crises in the semi-periphery: A comparative analysis

The process of neoliberal globalisation has been associated with successive financial crises in the context of the 1990s, raising serious doubts concerning the sustainability of rapid growth in an environment of uncontrolled movements of short-term capital. The article probes into the origins of the financial crises in the semi-periphery through a structured comparison of three key recent crises in the world economy, namely the Mexican and Turkish crises of 1994 and the Asian crises of 1997. Whilst the magnitude of the capital flows and the dimensions of the subsequent crises are strikingly different, there are nonetheless important elements common to all three cases studied. One such common element involves the overdependence of the countries concerned on the short-term financial flows, in a setting characterised by premature capital account liberalisation in the absence of adequate regulation. It is striking that, contrary to the conventional IMF wisdom, financial crises have occurred in spite of 'sound fundamental', namely fiscal equilibrium and low inflation. The recent financial crises highlights a paradoxical situation: the need for effective regulation at a time when the capacity of the nation state to undertake the type of regulation needed severely circumscribed. Hence, the establishment of an effective regulatory framework at the global level emerges as a major requirement if successive financial crises, with significant economic and social cost, are to be avoided in the future.     

Divergent politico-legal responses to past presidential corruption in Zambia and Kenya: catching the ‘big fish’, or letting him off the hook?

The criticisms of globalisation and international institutions often confuse the current state of multilateralism and its asymmetrical organisation; the economic theories it uses (the ‘Washington consensus’); and the reforms it promotes, such as liberalisation. Economic stagnation, however, has many causes other than the multilateral organisations’ reforms, which may have little impact on growth. These reforms may be efficient, irrelevant or powerless vis-à-vis the other determinants of growth. The paper discusses the several determinants of growth other than policy reforms, such as countries' structural and institutional characteristics, and analyses the consequences of reforms, in particular trade liberalisation. These consequences constitute a challenge to the credibility of reforms, but may also lead to deeper thinking about the determinants of economic growth and further developmental reforms.     

Tracing connections between comparative politics and globalisation

This article focuses on connections between globalisation and comparative political analysis. Traditionally the latter is concerned with domestic political actors, especially states. Globalisation, on the other hand, emphasises the variable significance of a variety of border-crossing, including transnational, actors. I argue that since the end of the Cold War five key developments—a large number of new countries; widespread political changes, especially in the Third World; global entrenchment of capitalism; increasing regional economic integration; and the growth of transnational civil society—collectively underline the importance of globalisation for comparative political analysis. It is now difficult plausibly to argue that what goes on politically within countries is unaffected by globalisation. The article is structured as follows. First, I trace the traditional (domestic) concerns of comparative political analysis and argue that, because it neglects the impact of globalisation, it is analytically inadequate. Second, I examine four key aspects of globalisation: technological, political, economic and cultural globalisation, and suggest how they influence comparative political analysis. Third, to assess differing views of how globalisation affects domestic politicalÐeconomic terrains, I examine competing arguments of the hyper-globalisationist, globalisation sceptic and structural dependency approaches.     

If democracy,then human rights?

At the beginning of the twenty-first century, democracy and human rights are usually thought of as symbiotic. It follows from this that the promotion of democracy as the only legitimate form of government inevitably supports claims for universal human rights. This article discusses this claim, with particular reference to efforts to promote democracy in less developed states. It begins by identifying the central features of democracy and placing them within the critical context of globalisation. It then moves to question the symbiotic assumption, first, through a discussion on democracy and global order and, second, through a discussion of development and human rights. The conclusion to be drawn from these discussions suggests that democracy promotion has more to do with global economic interests than with delivering human rights to the poor and excluded in less developed countries.     

No miracles here: Trade policy,fiscal policy and economic growth

In this paper we consider whether the rate of growth following trade liberalisation differs significantly from growth in other developing countries. We find that it does not. Given this result we explore whether these growth effects are offset by changes in other policy variables, namely changes in fiscal policy. Governments increase welfare spending as a response to greater exposure to international trade. We find evidence that countries that liberalise their trade regimes increase their spending on welfare but not other forms of expenditure. However, once we control for the effects of fiscal policy, trade liberalisation still has no growth effects.     

Crossing the Ideological Divide? Egypt's Salafists and the Muslim Brotherhood after the Arab Spring

An important strand in the literature has stressed the analytical distinction between the Muslim Brotherhood's brand of Islamism and the Salafist movement. This article examines the shifts that have occurred within these two movements in Egypt since the Arab Spring. It specifically asks whether approximations between them in terms of strategies of actions have been paralleled by ideological approximations. The article argues that both movements have seen increased diversification which has—especially at the fringes—involved a reshaping of identities and ideological approximations that may facilitate cooperation between segments of these movements in the future.     

Openness and Growth: Re-Examining Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Output Linkages in Latin America

The openness–growth connection is still an open question in the empirical literature. Although some studies have found that openness has a positive impact on economic performance, others have seriously questioned the significance of this result. The main point that we try to emphasise in this paper is that openness involves more than just trade liberalisation. The increasing importance of international capital flows and especially foreign direct investment (FDI) seems to be another relevant component of outward oriented policies. Therefore, by using quarterly data from the late seventies to 2000, we investigate the effects of liberalisation in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina by taking into account trade and FDI growth links. The results suggest that it is important to consider both exports and FDI to ascertain the benefits associated to the outward oriented strategies followed by these countries.     

Interest Rates and Investment in East Asia: An Empirical Evaluation of Various Financial Liberalisation Hypotheses

The article attempts to shed light on the appropriate interest rate policy in the process of economic development. To this end, we examine whether higher interest rates lead to higher investment (and growth) in four East Asian countries. We find that the investment rate went up with real interest rates up to 9 per cent in all four countries but started declining at still higher interest rates in two of the countries. Further, a banking crisis occurred in each of the three countries for which the real interest rates exceeded 9 per cent. This evidence rejects the ‘neo-structuralist’ argument. Nor does it support unbridled financial liberalisation. Yet, it provides only limited support to Stiglitz's case for ‘mild financial repression (real interest rates near zero)’ since reducing real interest rates from say, 6 to 3 or 0 per cent would have reduced investment. The optimum policy seems to be closest to McKinnon's ‘restrained financial liberalisation’ policy, that is, liberalisation with a moderate upper limit (about 6 or 7 per cent) on the real interest rates.     

Globalisation and environmental resistance politics

Abstract

Based on extensive fieldwork in Eastern Asia, an epicentre of globalisation, and Southern Africa, a key node in the most marginalised continent, this cross-regional study asks: what constitutes resistance to neoliberal globalisation? An ecological reading of master theorists of resistance, especially Polanyi, focuses attention on protectionist movements as a response to the spread and deepening of the market—solid patterns and cumulative action—and to a lesser degree, on the soft, or latent, forms of protest that may or may not sufficiently harden so as eventually to challenge globalising structures. Attention is given to submerged forms of resistance within civil society insofar as they are emerging into networks. The empirical evidence includes interviews designed to elicit the voices of the subjects of globalisation engaged in environmental resistance politics. Counter-globalisation strategies are identified, and the impact of countervailing forces is assessed.     

Successful and failed democratic transitions from military rule in majority Muslim societies: the cases of Indonesia and Egypt

As majority Muslim societies with significant minorities and dominant militaries, Indonesia and Egypt experienced strikingly similar political trajectories between the early 1950s and the late 1990s. Yet, their respective democratic transitions have seen vastly different outcomes: while Indonesia solidified its democracy by extracting the military from politics, Egypt's democratic experiment ended after only two years with the return of the armed forces to the apex of government. This article highlights the reasons for this divergence. Contrary to existing scholarship that exclusively focuses on different geographical or economic circumstances, this contribution emphasises dissimilarities in the patterns of authoritarian rule, military organisation, intra-civilian conflict and international support. Conceptually, the discussion locates the Indonesian and Egyptian cases within the broader debate on civilian control in post-authoritarian states, arguing that this discourse needs to pay more attention to the creation of intra-civilian agreements on fundamental issues of governance as the best strategy to establish strong democratic oversight over the armed forces.     

Growth and Distress in a South Indian Peasant Economy During the Era of Economic Liberalisation

This article analyses the impact of agricultural liberalisation on different farming classes in the region of Telangana in South India. The region has been witnessing significant growth in real agricultural output over the last 15 years. At the same time, as NSS (National Sample Survey) household survey data indicate, there have been significant welfare declines not only for marginal farmers and landless labour, but for other groups as well. There have also been more than a thousand farmer suicides between 1998 and 2002. I argue in this article that during the liberalisation period, that is, post 1990, agricultural growth and increased distress have become mutually intertwined. I use the terms, growth-inducing distress and distress-inducing growth to explain this apparent paradox.     

Neoliberal globalisation and the triple crisis of 'modernisation' in Africa: Zimbabwe,the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Africa

Neoliberal globalisation has renewed and accelerated the triple crisis of capitalist modernisation in Africa. Primitive accumulation, nation-state formation and democratisation remain uncompleted tasks. Neoliberal globalisation simultaneously encourages these trends yet makes them difficult to resolve, given its anti-statism, its exclusionary version of democracy, and the violence inherent in the emergence of private property rights out of pre-capitalist modes of production that have been mediated by colonial and postcolonial institutions and the dynamics of the Cold War. The elements of the modernisation triad are inextricably intertwined, yet in varying social contexts take on unique patterns. To highlight each element in the triple crisis of 'modernisation', this article separates and 'applies' them to three 'southern' African countries. The notion of primitive accumulation is the theoretical lens through which the Zimbabwean crisis is viewed. The war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is analysed through the prism of nation-state construction. South Africa, the most 'developed' (albeit particularly unevenly 'developed') society under study here will be examined through the framework of 'democratisation'.     

Beyond the nation: global democratisation in Uganda and the politics of dispensation

Global frameworks for democratic development today tend to remain within a comparative lens where each country is treated as a sovereign capsule. This portrait eludes the political structures that accompany contemporary globalisation and set the conditions for domestic development. Notably, the comparative perspective eschews the hierarchical nature of states and influential non-state actors that impact democracy movements. Merging international relations theory and comparative politics and using the example of Uganda to illustrate, I create ‘the politics of dispensation.’ Like a doctor dispensing a pill to a patient, Uganda shows how susceptible a country can be to forces beyond democratic control.     

In the Shadow of the Ombudsman: Civil Society and the Struggle for an Independent Human Rights Institution in St Petersburg,Russia

Abstract

National Human Rights Institutions (NHRIs) have become hallmarks of good governance and democracy. Although many countries have an NHRI, it remains unclear how they operate on the regional level in political systems where democracy malfunctions and human rights are under pressure. Drawing on interviews, this essay examines how Russian nongovernmental organisations (NGOs) established a shadow Ombudsman—the Human Rights Council (HRC)—to protest against the appointment of an Ombudsman in St Petersburg and put pressure on authorities to inaugurate a new and independent Ombudsman. Although we would expect relations between the Ombudsman and NGOs to deteriorate when civil society is under pressure, this essay finds that political repression and the persona of the current Ombudsman, Alexander Shishlov, have brought civil society and the Ombudsman closer together.     

Debt,adjustment and the politics of effective response to HIV/AIDS in Africa

Today in much of Africa economic growth has slowed and living standards for the majority have suffered in the face of rising unemployment and mass poverty, resulting in incomes that are presently below the 1970 level. One problem that has been the focus of much attention and contention over the past 20 years is the huge foreign debt owed by African countries to bilateral donors and multilateral institutions. Debt servicing is consuming a disproportionate amount of scarce resources at the expense of the provision of basic services to the poor. In order to receive help in servicing their debts, countries must agree to implement structural economic reforms. This often entails drastic cuts in social expenditures, the privatisation of basic services, and the liberalisation of domestic trade consistent with WTO rules. These policy decisions have had a direct impact on the capacity of African countries to promote, fulfill and protect the right to health of their citizens. This is further compounded by ill-conceived privatisation of basic services such as water and health services, without any regard for the ability of the poor to access these essential services at a cost they can afford. Finally, adherence to WTO trade rules, which often comes as an extension of liberalisation policy, hampers the capacity of African governments to produce or purchase less expensive generic drugs for their citizen without fear of retaliation from the developed countries.     

wto Agriculture negotiations: implications for the Global South

The Doha ‘Development’ Round of trade negotiations at the wto has featured agricultural trade liberalisation as one of its key aims. But developing countries were frustrated with both the process and the content of the agricultural agreement negotiations early on in the round. This prompted these countries, through a number of developing country groupings such as the G-20 and others, to call for changes in the talks to ensure that developing country voices and concerns were heard. Although developing countries were in many ways successful in registering their concerns in the latter half of the negotiations, and have maintained a fairly high degree of cohesion across the Global South, it remains unclear whether this cohesion will last as the uneven impacts of agricultural trade liberalisation become apparent.     

The globaliser dragon: how is China changing economic globalisation?

There are many studies on the effects of both economic globalisation and the rise of China. These core issues of the contemporary international agenda entail major economic, military, environmental, social and cultural transformations in most nations. While there is also an abundant literature on how globalisation supported the rise of China, there are scarce publications on how China became one of the primary drivers of globalisation. This article assumes that understanding the power of globalisation over countries is as crucial as assessing the power of certain countries over the process. In this sense, it uses the recently created ‘theory of globalisers’ to analyse how is China transforming contemporary economic globalisation. The conclusion is that China became an ‘economic globaliser’ in the twenty-first century. As the largest exporter, the second largest importer, the third largest provider of foreign direct investments, and a major supplier of high-tech goods, the Asian giant is a vital partner for several economies in different continents. In this context, Beijing’s globalisation strategy aims at both securing the benefits of globalisation and reforming the international economic order, but without a revolutionary stance.