A Hybrid Peace through Locally Owned and Externally Financed ssr–ddr in Rwanda?

This article aims to critically examine Rwanda's security sector reform and disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (ssr–ddr) process through a theoretical framework outlining four different models of peace processes in order to identify the sort of peace that can emerge from Rwanda's ssr–ddr approach. The author analyses how the Rwandan government has managed to keep the process ‘locally’ owned, while largely financed by external actors, despite strong criticism of its apparent lack of democratisation. The ‘genocide credit’, the Rwandan government's preference for national, rather than international solutions and its recent troop contribution to peacebuilding operations in the region are identified as the main reasons for this development. The paper argues that the peace emanating from the ssr–ddr process may be considered a hybrid form of state formation and state building, because of the local agency's preference for security and stability while simultaneously enjoying financial and technocratic support for its ‘liberal’ peacebuilding actions in the region.     

The elephant in the room: offshore companies,liberalisation and extension of presidential power in DR Congo

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, donors promoted rapid liberalisation and presidential elections in the aftermath of the war, and after two terms, President Kabila has not left office. This article engages with the question of how liberalisation and elections are connected, and how they are related to the extension of presidential power. It finds that the international market for minerals has shaped the domestic political economy but its nature has effectively been ignored in the formulation of donor policy; efforts at regulating trade have been concentrated on due diligence of origin in Congo but have not addressed the secrecy of international trade. Liberalisation has removed control of economic resources from Congo, provided returns for elite politicians and funded violence to control the disenfranchised population. The offshore companies are the elephant in the room; without acknowledging them, analysis of the liberalisation and its interaction with presidential tenure lacks assessment of the opportunities, interests and power that shaped the processes.     

The dark(er) side of ‘state failure’: state formation and socio-political variation

Scholars concerned with the formation of states, specifically the relationship between state formation and war, hold one of two positions. Some agree with Charles Tilly’s historiological conclusion that war is decisive for the establishment of stateness and specify key concepts, in order to explain presumed discrepancies between past and present. Others point towards the international sphere in its current form and advocate a ‘war breaks states’ perspective. This paper argues that both standpoints neglect the ‘sub-national’ level. While proponents of the ‘war breaks states’ thesis are missing para-sovereign zones of rule, supporters of the ‘war makes states’ approach take a juridical view of statehood and focus on ‘state strength’. The failed states paradigm guiding contemporary security and development policy hinders an adequate analysis of the actual situation on the ground. Discussing the shortcomings of failed states approaches and state formation theorising, the paper proposes a conceptualisation in terms of socio-political variation instead of a mere dichotomisation of order. Some conclusive questions are raised, indicating future research directions linked to the historical sociology of state formation.     

The Tanzanian Villagisation Programme: Its Impract on Household Production in Dodoma

The survival of authoritarian regimes has for a long time been associated with the availability of rents derived from oil and gas. In particular, military oil regimes have been able to withstand the challenge of domestic opposition even at difficult times because these regimes could ultimately count on oil and gas revenues. As this article demonstrates, the Qadhafi regime had been particularly adept at surviving by using oil and gas rents. But there is a limit to what these rents can explain: in 2011 however the regime fell after a brief civil war, in which external forces played a central role. The role played by the European and NATO interventions points to the limits of the oil and gas rents. The changed distribution of international resources amongst domestic Libyan actors contributed to the rebels' victory, indicating that international factors should be better incorporated into studies of both authoritarian survival and democratisation.     

Instrumentalizing Counterterrorism for Regime Consolidation in Putin's Russia

Since the late 1990s, Russia has been among the countries most painfully affected by terrorism and President Putin has shown little doubt and even much enthusiasm in joining the U.S.-led "war" against terrorism. Intertwined as they are, counterterrorism and Chechnya are still significantly different matters in Russian security policy, and this article aims at examining how the struggle against terrorism shapes essential features of Russia's foreign and domestic policies during Putin's first presidency. Internally, the struggle against terrorism provides for a sufficient mobilization of the dysfunctional society around the "mutant" regime that has consolidated its control over mid-term political agenda. Internationally, high-profile counterterrorism strategy has helped Russia to secure for itself a more prominent role than the sheer size of its "assets" would justify. This war is fundamentally not about victory; it is about many "collateral" benefits for the regime that Putin is presiding over.‐     

A capability analysis of Rwandan development policy: calling into question human development indicators

This article provides a capability analysis of Rwandan development policy. It is motivated by impressive progress on human development indicators in combination with highly centralised policymaking, giving ambiguous signs regarding a capability approach. It is based on extensive original empirical material, along with large numbers of official documents and academic sources. The analysis is structured around three issues that concern the relation between individual agency and government policy, and that are debated among capability scholars as well as in relation to Rwandan development policy: participation, transformation and paternalism. The finding that Rwandan development policy reflects an approach very different from a capability approach is not surprising, but establishes that the assumed link between human development indicators and the capability approach needs to be questioned. This brings our attention to shortcomings in any quantitative measurements of development, or in the use of and importance attached to them, as well as to the problem of assuming that certain outputs go hand in hand with certain processes. While this is valid for contexts far beyond Rwanda, it also sheds light specifically on the polarisation that exists in the scholarly debate on Rwanda.     

When it pays to be a ‘fragile state’: Uganda’s use and abuse of a dubious concept

The labelling of certain states as ‘fragile states’ has often been portrayed as an act of domination by Western donors over the developing world. Nonetheless, this type of categorisation also presents opportunities to non-Western governments. This article suggests that the aid-dependent government of Uganda has increased its room for manoeuvre with donors by emphasising the degree of instability in the north of the country. By using this notion of state fragility, the Ugandan regime has successfully persuaded donors to continue their support, despite its domestic transgressions. The article will also attempt to explain the regime’s use of a contradictory, but equally persuasive, international discourse that presents Uganda as stable, strong and secure. In exploring how Kampala has successfully employed both narratives to carve out greater agency with donors, the article will emphasise the significance of donors’ physical detachment from the Ugandan ‘periphery’ in this dynamic.     

Building the Tamil Eelam State: emerging state institutions and forms of governance in LTTE-controlled areas in Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka's civil war has created a political – territorial division between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (ltte), where ltte is engaged in a process of state building within the areas they control. The article examines this state formation with an emphasis on the functions and forms of governance that are embedded in the new state institutions. It is observed that the emerging state formation has a strong focus on external and internal security, with an additional emphasis on social welfare and economic development. In terms of governance, the ltte state apparatus is marked by authoritarian centralisation with few formal mechanisms for democratic representation, but there are also partnership arrangements and institutional experiments that may foster more democratic forms of representation and governance. Hence, resolving the security problem in tandem with political transformations towards democratic governance remain prime challenges for peace building in northeast Sri Lanka.     

Autobiographical representations of the Rwanda genocide and black diasporic identities in Africa

Abstract

This article uses the example of the Rwandan genocide to deconstruct notions of African diaspora based on margin to centre and pull and push factors. Representing patterns of African migrations and diasporas through the autobiographical mode reveals multiple genocides that took place not only in Rwanda but in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Umutesi's novel, Surviving the Slaughter: The Ordeal of a Rwandan Refugee in Zaire (2004) complicates our standard understanding of what is known of genocide in Africa, forcing us to revise our notions of diaspora because the autobiographical narrative highlights differences within a single refugee diaspora. Umutesi's personal account of the links between genocide and diaspora in the Great Lakes Region interrogates the very authority that is accorded individual subjectivities in autobiographical works of Africa. The contingent nature of African politics, particularly, within the unnatural context of genocide renders African identities transient and perpetually diasporic.     

Going to the Source: Why Al Qaeda's Financial Network Is Likely to Withstand the Current War on Terrorist Financing

On 24 September 2001, President Bush announced the first stage of the War on Terrorism with an attack against the terrorist financial infrastructure. Since then, the impact of this attack on Al Qaeda's ability to operate has been minimal, for three reasons. First, Al Qaeda has built a strong network of financiers and operatives who are both frugally minded and business savvy. As a result, terrorist finances are often hidden in legitimate and illegitimate businesses and disguised as commodities and cash. Second, Al Qaeda has learned to effectively leverage the global financial system of capital markets. Small financial transfers, underregulated Islamic banking networks and informal transfer systems throughout the world make it almost impossible to stop Al Qaeda from moving money. Third, Al Qaeda has built a significant base of Islamic charities in Saudi Arabia with international divisions that have not been scrutinized or controlled by the regime. As a result, Al Qaeda's sophisticated financial network may be able to sustain international efforts to disrupt it. Financial regulations imposed to reduce terrorist financing must be applied more broadly and be supported by significant resources. An improvement in the war on terrorist financing requires better international coordination, more effective use of financial regulations, and regulating the Saudi Arabian charity structure.‐     

军事对抗与两岸军事安全互信机制未来前景

本文在阐述军事对抗与军事安全互信机制辩证关系的基础上,提出一种有益于建立军事安全互信机制、创造台海永久和平的新型军事安全战略。这种新型军事安全战略的基本特征是：把维护两岸关系和平发展作为根本目标,既关注如何赢得战争,也关注如何通过战争赢得和平,还关注如何防止已经建立起来的和平转化为新的战争。以此为标准检视台海各方军事安全战略可以看到：中国大陆军事安全战略实现了战略与政略的高度结合,为军事服从政治、服务两岸关系和平发展提供了无限可能;台湾、美国坚持“只经不政”、“和而不解”,使其“和平愿望”难以贯彻到军事安全战略层面,是阻碍两岸军事安全互信机制建立的根本原因。     

Kim Jong-il's military-first politics and beyond: Military control mechanisms and the problem of power succession

Military-first politics has been at the heart of the unexpected regime stability in North Korea under Kim Jong-il and his son Jong-un. This article analyzes Kim Jong-il’s military-first politics as a strategic choice for regime survival, in which the locus of political power switched from the party to the military. At the same time, Kim Jong-il formulated a complex system of circumventing the possibility of the armed forces' political domination, including personalistic control using sticks and carrots, fortifying security and surveillance institutions, and compartmentalizing the security institutions for intra- and inter-organizational checks and balances to prevent the emergence of organized opposition to the regime. Although an effective short-term solution, military-first politics could never be a long-term strategy for building gangseongdaeguk (a powerful and prosperous nation). The current Kim Jong-un regime needs to conduct sweeping reforms to address dire economic difficulties, which might result in a departure from his father's legacy and downgrade the military's power. In this process, the current regime's (in)stability will depend on how it maintains a balance between revoking military-first politics and preserving the armed forces' allegiance.     

State Power and the Economic Origins of Democracy

Recent comparative politics scholarship on regime change has not taken state capacity seriously. Prominent works on the relationship between democracy and economic inequality center on the expectation by economic elites that democratization will lead to economic redistribution. But state capacity is necessary for redistribution, and where extractive capacity is lacking, rational economic elites should not fear that suffrage expansion would lead to effective redistribution, nor should the masses expect to gain economically from democratization. State capacity thus acts as a scope condition for the effect of inequality on regime outcomes. This prediction is confirmed through replication and extension of the analysis in Boix (2003), with the addition of the presence of a regularly implemented national census as a proxy for state capacity. In strong states, the effect of inequality on regime change is confirmed. But where the state is weak, inequality is shown to have no effect on regime outcomes. Thus, including state capacity in theories of regime change calls into question general claims about the “economic origins” of dictatorship and democracy.     

Is Democracy a Cure for Terrorism? A Review of Natan Sharansky's The Case for Democracy: The Power of Freedom to Overcome Tyranny and Terror 1

This article examines the claim by Natan Sharansky that the establishment of democracy in countries that are currently under an autocratic or tyrannical regime will result in an end terror. Sharansky sees a direct link between the promotion of human rights and democracy on the one hand and peace and security on the other. The review article argues that the establishment of democracy alone will not be sufficient to end terror. The pursuit of justice, including tackling poverty and solving the Israel–Palestine problem, and the promotion of religious tolerance are necessary additional components.     

冷战与美国的大战略、国家安全理念和国家构建

作为政策思想和行为的"大战略"或者"国家战略"反映现代世界的总体战和"总体冷战"的特性和要求,具有内在的扩张性、综合性和政治性。大战略的关键意义既在于协调和统御军事和非军事因素,也在于平衡和整合政策和制度的对内和对外的方面。在冷战时期的美国,"国家安全"理念不仅是对外政策和战略的统御性理念,也连带着国内政府组织改造、国家扩张以及国家和社会的关系重建的重要内容。本文试图突显以往受到忽略的美国冷战大战略与国家建构的历史进程之间的关系,也提示美国冷战战略和政策的历史根源、国家风格和复杂多面的特征。     

Semi-Proxy Wars and U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy

On 4 February 2014, Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan (aka Al Qaeda Central) repudiated Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Ayman al-Zawahiri declared that al-Baghdadi and his newly formed Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) were no longer part of Al Qaeda's organization and Al Qaeda Central could not be held responsible for ISIL's behavior. It represents the first time that Al Qaeda Central has renounced an affiliate publicly. The announcement was driven by months of fighting between ISIL and Jabhat al-Nusra, another Al Qaeda affiliate in Syria. In fact, in Syria, Al Qaeda fighters are competing against each other for influence, as well as against other opposition groups, the Syrian regime, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iraqi militiamen, and Lebanese Hezbollah. This chaotic, semi-proxy war is unlike any previous problem encountered, made even more challenging by the limited U.S. presence on-the-ground. More worrisome, this semi-proxy war also has spread beyond Syria. Similar dynamics have emerged in Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon to a certain extent. This article argues that these dynamics necessitate a twist in U.S. counterterrorism strategy.     

Can constituent states influence foreign and security policy? Coalitional dynamics in India

Abstract

The Indian state has undergone significant transformation since the late 1980s, most notably the extensive decentralisation of power, with consequences for the formation and implementation of Indian foreign policy. This article explores the role of India’s constituent states explaining the extent and limitations of their autonomy and influence. It deploys and extends the state transformation approach to incorporate considerations of issue area and coalition type. Under coalitions led by typical national parties, subnational governments are less likely to influence foreign and security policy. Under the same coalition type, they are more likely to behave autonomously on non-traditional security issues such as sharing of water resources with neighbouring countries. They are less likely to behave autonomously on security issues such as the transnational expression of ethnic solidarity. Under coalitions led by atypical national parties or regional parties, subnational governments are likely to exercise a moderate level of autonomy and influence on issue areas such as transnational expression of ethnic solidarity. They are likely to exercise a high level of autonomy and influence on non-traditional security issues such as sharing of water resources. The framework is illustrated through Tamil Nadu’s activism on Sri Lanka, and West Bengal’s position on water-sharing with Bangladesh.     

Mobilization of Artists and Understanding of the Political Field: Struggles Around the Contract Work System

For the last 20 years, many mobilizations related to the contract work system that is subsidized by the general unemployment insurance system have occurred in various French artistic fields, mainly in the performing arts. They are characterized by an intense politicization which can be explained by the role of the state in these fields. On the one hand, state intervention suspends the rules of the market economy. On the other hand, the state is one of the main users of the unemployment insurance system which externalizes labor costs. Politicization is also based on the limited resources of the mobilized groups. Thus, these groups promote permanent media coverage of their fights in order to force the political leaders to speak out in their support. Politicization has also led these groups to try to destroy the political capital of some Ministers of Culture. In conclusion, the present work emphasizes that the artists’ demand for the state, which relies on the will to increase aesthetic autonomy, may eventually lead to the opposite situation, the artists becoming dependent on political constraints they do not master.     

Arbiters with guns: the ambiguity of military involvement in civilian disputes in the DR Congo

Based on extensive field research in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo), this article elucidates the logics, processes and readings surrounding certain ‘extra-military’ practices enacted by the Congolese army, namely the processing of various types of disputes between civilians. Exceeding the boundaries of the domain of ‘public security’, such activities are commonly categorised as ‘corruption’. Yet such labelling, founded on a supposed clear-cut public–private divide, obscures the underlying processes and logics, in particular the fact that these practices are located on a blurred public–private spectrum and result from both civilian demand and military imposition. Furthermore, popular readings of military involvement in civilian disputes are highly ambiguous, simultaneously representing it as ‘abnormal’ and ‘harmful’, and normalising it as ‘making sense’ – reflecting the militarised institutional environment and the weakness of civilian authorities in the eastern DR Congo. Strengthening these authorities will be vital for reducing this practice, which has an enkindling effect on the dynamics of conflict and violence.     

Modes of transition and the timing of separatist war onset: a comparative analysis of South Ossetia and Kosovo

This paper compares the escalation of civil war in South Ossetia and Kosovo and shows how different modes of transition deeply influenced the timing and type of conflict in these two cases. It argues that regimes resulting from a transition from above – when the elite in power leads the process of regime change and imposes its political agenda on other social actors – are more likely to ensure political stability in the short term, since governments are more cohesive internally, enjoy the support of the military, and can rely on a loyal bureaucracy. In contrast, regimes that emerge from transitions from below are more likely to experience civil war with an ethnic minority in the short term because of an intrinsic weakness of the elite in power. Under these circumstances, the newcomers need to win the loyalty of the military and of the bureaucracy, and separatist groups can take advantage of the incumbents’ weaknesses and try to build resources to militarily challenge the state.