Political development and the intra‐regional balance of power

Planting and replanting of perennial crops confronts small farmers with a long‐term investment decision. In this study, we analyse the behaviour of rubber smallholders in Sri Lanka when faced with a replacement decision. An intertemporal profit maximizing model (maximizing discounted stream of expected future net revenues) predicts behaviour of larger, hired labour using farmers quite well. The model can also be extended successfully to smaller, family farms, when a lower than market wage rate is imputed to family labour to better reflect opportunity cost of labour, and risk considerations are incorporated in relatively simple fashion. The difference between a cash investment and a labour investment is crucial for the poorer family farmers and an appropriate cash subsidy can play a vital role in inducing them to undertake long term investments.     

Collapse at the WTO: a Cancun post‐mortem

This article offers an analysis of the collapse of the WTO talks in Cancun in September 2003. It argues that the collapse of the talks should not be regarded as a victory for the developing world, as many have suggested. Rather, the collapse should be seen as the inevitable result of deep‐seated tensions within the wto 's institutional framework, both in terms of the processes that underlie its working and the substance of its agreements. The article argues that these imbalances, if not corrected, will heighten the alienation of developing countries and work to the detriment of the legitimacy and survival of the wto.     

Conditions of non‐development: The case of Lesotho

A peculiar combination of social and economic factors entailed by the proximity of South Africa creates, for Lesotho, a syndrome of non‐development that may usefully be visualised as a vicious circle in three parts—Poverty, Migration, Ideology—and is so described here. It is the purpose of this paper to demonstrate that the economic facts of village life in Lesotho (and in countries with certain characteristics in common with Lesotho) are perpetuated by their effect on the individual villager. The analysis enters a caveat to the theory of ‘aspiration effect’ [Firth and Yamey, 1963], extends the concept of frustration gap’ [McLoughlin, 1970] and adds a dimension to the cognitive map of migrant ideology [Philpott 1968].     

Oil price shocks and policy responses in the post‐reform Chinese economy

This study analyses the impact of the 1986 oil price shock on China and the policy options for accommodating the shock. A computable general equilibrium model is used to capture the complex interactions in the Chinese economy in response to the shock. Interpreted in the theoretical framework of the ‘Booming Sector’ model, the results of the model provide insights on both the real and monetary effects of the shock, and suggest that a combination of policy instruments such as a cut in real absorption, depreciation of the official exchange rate and tight monetary control are required to facilitate adjustment.     

Capabilities,well‐being and human development: A survey

Economists have moved away from thinking of development in terms of growth of per capita GNP. The most influential alternative conception of development ‐ due to Amartya Sen ‐ involves judging the quality of life in terms of capabilities and viewing development as a ‘capability expansion’. This article argues that Sen's approach is an inadequate account of development. It is further argued that other versions of the approach ‐ involving the work of Nussbaum and Frankfurt ‐ also fail. The most promising foundation for an account of human development derives from James Griffin's recent writings on well‐being.     

Macro development planning in tropical Africa: Technocratic and non‐technocratic causes of failure

Based on the targets given in the development plans and the national income data of twenty‐two tropical Africa countries in the late 1960s, this paper finds a wide consensus among the planners on the structural determinants of the macro variables selected as plan targets, so that difference in targets can be explained largely by the different values assumed by these determinants in the sample countries. The implementation record was poor, and may be traced in part to a domino effect inherent in the recursive structure of target selection. The analysis of the causes of implementation failure shows that most of the causes lie outside of the competence of the planners. Alternative methods to calculate plan targets are not likely to meet with superior fulfilment results.     

Pardon,punishment, and amnesia: three African post‐conflict methods

This article examines the thesis that A´lvaro Uribe, the new president of Colombia (2002–06) is a neopopulist. Such a thesis holds that Uribe can be classified as a neopopulist given his election to the presidency after breaking ranks with the Liberal Party, his massive support from largely unorganised citizens, his government under a state-of-siege decree, his promotion of a national referendum, and his frequent public meetings with citizens throughout Colombia. I reject this thesis, arguing that Uribe's method of winning the presidency did not constitute a significant departure from previous practice in Colombia's system of fragmented political parties. His personality lacks a strong charismatic aura. More significantly, Uribe made no concerted effort to cultivate political support among the masses. In office Uribe's state-of-siege powers have been curtailed by decisions of the Constitutional Court, which he has, significantly, been careful to respect. His proposed referendum had to be negotiated with—and was significantly transformed by—the Colombian Congress. And Uribe's public meetings consist largely in his listening to citizen complaints, rather than giving electrifying public orations. A close examination of Uribe's history and governing style shows him to be a talented politician but not a populist.     

Exchange rate policy and price level changes: Casualty tests for Turkey in the post‐liberalisation period

The purpose of the present study is to examine the relationship between exchange rate changes and price level changes in Turkey during the 1980s using some modified Granger causality tests. During this period, Turkish exchange rate policy was characterised by considerable flexibility, in contrast to the long‐standing policy of fixing the exchange rate until a foreign exchange crisis necessitated devaluation. The weight of the evidence presented suggests that Granger causality runs from price level changes to exchange rate changes but that there is not feedback causality from exchange rate changes to price level changes. This conclusion is not altered by the inclusion of a money supply variable. Thus, for Turkey, exchange rate adjustment does not seem to have created a vicious cycle of currency depreciation leading to inflation as is often feared. Whether this result will hold for other developing countries which adopt flexible exchange rate regimes will require further testing.     

Modernization theory and the sociological study of development∗

The focus of this article is methodological and macro‐sociological. Its purpose is to disentangle some of the issues which arise in the sociology of development, and to question the assumptions and implications of a particular mode of conceptualization based on the notions of modernity and modernization which has provided the characteristic theoretical framework of the sociology of development. The principal assumptions of modernization theory as understood here—often enough made explicit by those who use this approach—are (1) that modernization is a total social process associated with (or subsuming) economic development in terms of the preconditions, concomitants, and consequences of the latter; (2) that this process constitutes a ‘universal pattern’. Obviously among various writers there are differences of emphasis with respect to the meaning of modernization, partly due to its relationship with—or derivation from—that most contentious concept ‘development’. For Lerner modernization is ‘the social process of which development is the economic component’ (Lerner, 1967, p. 21); while Apter sees development, modernization and industrialization as terms of decreasing conceptual generality (Apter, 1967, pp. 67–9). Some writers stress structural aspects while for others ‘the concept of modernization has to do with a transformation of culture and of personality in so far as it is influenced by culture, rather than of some aspect of social organization or of human ecology’ (Stephen‐son, 1968, p. 265). It is hoped that the following discussion is both specific enough to convey the essential aspects of the type of theory under review, and flexible enough to allow for some of the variants on the basic theme in what is a highly condensed survey of a substantial body of literature.1 The critical approach adopted reflects certain ideas about societies and hence the questions social scientists should ask; these preoccupations cannot be discussed fully within present limits but are indicated in the suggestions contained in the concluding section. The first section serves to outline the context in which the concept of development studies arose. This is followed by a schematic outline of the central concepts and conceptual procedures of the sociology of development, and more specifically of modernization theory, which are then criticized on a number of counts. These criticisms lead on to an argument for the use of a historical perspective—moreover, one which results in a re‐examination of the concept of underdevelopment, relating it to the expansion of Western capitalism and the effects of this process on the diverse indigenous societies of what is now called the Third World. The relationships of dependence and exploitation created by the process are exemplified in the colonial situation as narrowly defined though this is by no means the only situation characterized by such relationships. This perspective, developed in the work of certain political economists, can serve as the basis of a sociological approach which would prove more fruitful both in understanding the nature of underdevelopment itself, and in assessing the range of possibilities of development in the Third World, than that generally employed in the sociology of development at present.