Crises,What Crises? New Evidence on the Relative Roles of Political and Economic Crises in Begetting Reforms

Crises beget reforms is a powerful hypothesis. But which type of crises – economic or political – are the main drivers of structural reforms? To answer this question, we construct measures of labour market and trade liberalisation and the two types of crises for a panel of about 100 developed and developing countries between 1960 and 2000. We find that political crises are more important determinants of structural reforms than economic crises. This finding is robust to the inclusion of interdependencies between crises, feedbacks between reforms, different estimators and various alternative measures of crises.     

Miracle to meltdown: A pathology of the East Asian financial crisis

The financial crisis in East Asia was made more dramatic by the fact that the region's performance in terms of economic growth over the preceding decade had been widely perceived as a 'miracle'. What was it that transformed the region's fortunes, and what are the chances for a speedy economic recovery? Systematic analysis reveals that, while there is no unicausal explanation, and while few if any commentators anticipated the crisis before the event, the fundamental difference from previous international financial crises is the extreme indebtedness of the corporate sector of the crisis countries. Private sector repayment difficulties and the associated banking crises triggered the sudden withdrawal of capital and the collapse of exchange rates. Failure to address the underlying private sector debt overhang, and reliance instead on conventional macroeconomic policy solutions, have led to a decline in output and a depreciation in exchange rates which have been far greater than need have been the case.     

The Politics of Economic Crisis in Latin America

Researchers widely recognize that economic crises have important political consequences, yet there is little systematic research on the political factors that make nations more or less susceptible to economic crisis. Scholars have long debated the economic consequences of party systems, executive powers, and societal interest groups, but their relationships to crisis proclivity are poorly understood. We assess the political correlates of economic crisis using a cross-sectional time-series analysis of 17 Latin American countries over nearly three decades. Crises are measured along two dimensions—depth and duration—and disaggregated into three types: inflationary, GDP, and fiscal crises. Statistical results suggest that political institutions have a modest, and often unexpected, correlation with crises. More important than institutional attributes are social organization and the nature of party-society linkages, particularly the existence of a densely-organized trade union movement and/or a powerful leftist party. Strong unions and powerful parties of the left are associated with more severe economic crises, though there is some evidence that the combination of left-labor strength can alleviate inflationary crises. The results demonstrate the need to disaggregate the concept of economic crisis and incorporate the societal dimension when studying the political economy of crisis and reform.     

Neoliberal globalisation,the nation-state and financial crises in the semi-periphery: A comparative analysis

The process of neoliberal globalisation has been associated with successive financial crises in the context of the 1990s, raising serious doubts concerning the sustainability of rapid growth in an environment of uncontrolled movements of short-term capital. The article probes into the origins of the financial crises in the semi-periphery through a structured comparison of three key recent crises in the world economy, namely the Mexican and Turkish crises of 1994 and the Asian crises of 1997. Whilst the magnitude of the capital flows and the dimensions of the subsequent crises are strikingly different, there are nonetheless important elements common to all three cases studied. One such common element involves the overdependence of the countries concerned on the short-term financial flows, in a setting characterised by premature capital account liberalisation in the absence of adequate regulation. It is striking that, contrary to the conventional IMF wisdom, financial crises have occurred in spite of 'sound fundamental', namely fiscal equilibrium and low inflation. The recent financial crises highlights a paradoxical situation: the need for effective regulation at a time when the capacity of the nation state to undertake the type of regulation needed severely circumscribed. Hence, the establishment of an effective regulatory framework at the global level emerges as a major requirement if successive financial crises, with significant economic and social cost, are to be avoided in the future.     

EU agencies' involvement in transboundary crisis response: Supporting efforts or leading coordination?

EU agencies have emerged as entities offering technical coordination to member states and support to the European Commission in different policy areas. Their expertise may play a role in responding to unexpected crises. Against this backdrop, we examine under which circumstances EU agencies, through their specialized expertise, are involved in transboundary crisis responses, and when they acquire a leading position in coordinating those responses. To do so, we study four agencies which faced crises: the EBA and the 2012 banking crisis; the ECDC and the 2014 Ebola outbreak; EFSA and the 2011 E. coli outbreak; and Frontex and the 2015 refugee crisis. Our findings discuss to what extent agencies' involvement in transboundary crises is related to functional (sector characteristics) and institutional (delegation of authority) variables. We also identify that under certain political conditions EU agencies' coordination capacity is activated, allowing them to emerge as leading institutions in transboundary crisis resolution.     

Peacekeepers Fighting a Counterinsurgency Campaign: A Net Assessment of the African Union Mission in Somalia

In response to Somalia's decades-long political and humanitarian crises, the African Union has deployed a peace support operation known as the African Union Mission in Somalia. Tasked to help eliminate an ongoing insurgency, the mission has seen heavy combat as it fights to reclaim territory held by the al-Shabaab militant organization. This article applies the techniques of open source campaign analysis to assess the mission's prospects for long-term success. The prognosis is not good. Analysis reveals a range of vulnerabilities that threaten the deployment's core security objectives, suggesting that the optimism many have expressed for the mission is misplaced.     

Rangeland Degradation in North China Revisited? A Preliminary Statistical Analysis to Validate Non-Equilibrium Range Ecology

Over the past decades, the concepts of carrying capacity and Clementsian vegetation succession have come under attack from the theory of Non-Equilibrium Range Ecology. The new theory hypothesises that in arid regions with high rainfall variability the ecology is mainly determined by climatic and not biotic factors, such as animal grazing. The argument carried further implies that 'rangeland degradation' or 'desertification' are not caused by overgrazing but are part of a natural process of vegetation decline and growth in response to rainfall, which ruminant numbers merely follow. Few empirical studies involving time-series data have been executed to substantiate Non-Equilibrium Range Ecology. This article, hopes to make a contribution to the current debate with a statistical validation of one of its main postulates: the correlation between ruminant numbers and rainfall. The analysis is conducted with figures from the People's Republic of China: a state in which rangeland policy is an outstanding example of management on the basis of carrying capacities and Clementsian succession theory.     

Crises and unpredictability in developing countries

Developing countries have suffered most of the financial crises in the context of the process of economic and financial globalisation. Both current and previous crises have revealed that unpredictability is a feature common to all the episodes which occurred during the process of globalisation. Although certain alarms went off, any of those external financial crises were actually predicted by the advanced methods in use for prediction and country risk analysis. Taking into consideration the information above, the aim of this paper is to check the ability to foresee external financial crises in developing countries of both the country risk index published by Euromoney and the Credit Ratings variable included therein. We have focused on the external financial crises that took place between 1992 and 2011, that is, in a full globalisation era. The results are negative. It appears that neither the index nor the sovereign ratings are able to reflect early enough the vulnerabilities that arise previously to the setting off the crisis episodes. This leads us to conclude that the existing models of country risk have limits. Thus, it would necessary to develop new instruments to measure this risk, considering uncertainty as an essential feature of the current economic and financial environment.     

The state of politics in Africa: The corporatist factor

In the past decade, studies of thestate in Africa have either suggested its pervasiveness in both political and economic life or have concentrated on its nonrepresentative (i.e., undemocratic) nature and its dependence on foreign capital for its survival. This study adopts a different reasoning. It suggests that thestate in African countries should be viewed as grappling with problems of managing society within the context of underdevelopment, a task that is increasingly becoming more difficult given the recurring economic crises on the continent. Politics ofcorporatist organization thus become an attractive option for the state to express its authority and attempt to legitimize its existence.     

Higher education and economic growth in Africa

This paper uses panel data over the 1960–2000 period, a modified neoclassical growth equation, and a dynamic panel estimator to investigate the effect of higher education human capital on economic growth in African countries. We find that all levels of education human capital, including higher education human capital, have positive and statistically significant effect on the growth rate of per capita income in African counties. Our result differs from those of earlier research that find no significant relationship between higher education human capital and income growth. We estimate the growth elasticity of higher education human capital to be about 0.09, an estimate that is twice as large as the growth impact of physical capital investment. While this is likely to be an overestimate of the growth impact of higher education, it is robust to different specifications and points to the need for African countries to effectively use higher education human capital in growth policies.     

Economic Fluctuations and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Importance of Import Instability

The traditional thesis that export instability (XI) is deleterious to economic growth in developing economies has received mixed empirical results. For African countries, recent research suggests that the effect of XI is weak, but that capital (investment) instability (KI) adversely influences economic growth. The current study argues that in many of these nations, imports are likely to be critical to the growth process, while exports represent only one of the various sources of investment resources. Hence, import instability (MI) may pose a more serious problem than XI in hindering economic growth. Employing 1968-1986 World Bank data for 33 sub-Saharan African countries, XI, KI and MI variables are calculated for each country as the standard errors around the respective 'best-fitted' trends over the sample period. These instability measures and additional World Bank data are then used to estimate an augmented production function that controls for the effects of labour, capital, and exports. The study finds that although KI is still a relevant argument of the production function, MI appears to be even more important, while XI is extraneous.     

Outward Orientation,Investment and Finance Constraints: A Study of Indian Firms

We investigate the presence of finance constraints on firms' investment behaviour using Indian manufacturing as a case study. This question becomes particularly interesting in the post-1991 period when substantial market oriented reforms were undertaken. We argue that in the Indian institutional context (especially, the underdeveloped state of bankruptcy laws and restrictive exit procedures) outward orientation rather than size is the relevant criteria for distinguishing firms that may be 'finance-constrained' from those that are not. Using panel data for 718 Indian manufacturing firms for the period 1993-98, we find that exporting firms are less constrained in financial markets than firms which sell primarily to domestic markets.     

State Decay: A Conceptual Frame of Failing and Failed States in West Africa

Civil wars in Africa have brought many states to near collapse while many others have been plagued by political and economic failures. Studies of Africa have frequently noted the prevalence of weak and failed states. However, the notion of state failure rests more on the outcome of the political, economic, and social crises that have undermined African states, rather than the process of state failure. While the notion of state failure is a useful concept for studying the realities of war-torn African states, it is an inadequate concept to explain the conditions that lead African states into civil war. This study develops the notion of state decay and contends that it is a much more useful concept for examining the conditions that lead to civil wars and state failure in Africa.     

Varieties and crises of neoliberal globalisation: Argentina,Turkey and the imf

Argentina and Turkey are two important ‘emerging market countries’ that experienced a major economic crisis during the same year. Focusing on the period leading up to the respective 2001 crises in the two countries, this article attempts to place the two experiments in historical perspective and provide an understanding of the common elements as well as the diversity of the neoliberal restructuring process in semi-peripheral settings. The article also attempts to identify some of the key mistakes made by the imf, which was, in part, responsible for the crises experienced. A central conclusion is that ‘new’ or unconsolidated democracies find themselves particularly vulnerable when they are suddenly and prematurely exposed to financial and capital account liberalisation. The outcome is a highly fragile, debt-led growth path with costly consequences. Indeed, although both countries have managed to accomplish impressive recoveries in the post-crisis period, given their past trajectories and the heavy debt burden that they face, it is too early to say that the recovery process will be translated into sustained and crisis-free growth. The regional environment in which the two countries find themselves might be particularly important in this context, with the powerful EU anchor a possible important advantage in the Turkish context.     

Going South: capitalist crisis,systemic crisis,civilisational crisis

This article argues that the current protracted and severe financial and economic crisis is only one aspect of a larger multidimensional set of simultaneous and interacting crises on a global scale. The article constructs an overarching framework of analysis of this unique conjecture of global crises. The three principal crisis aspects are: an economic crisis of (over) accumulation of capital; a world systemic crisis (which includes a global centre-shift in the locus of production, growth and capital accumulation), and a hegemonic transition (which implies long term changes in global governance structures and institutions); and a worldwide civilisational crisis, situated in the sociohistorical structure itself, encompassing a comprehensive environmental crisis and the consequences of a lack of correspondence and coherence in the material and ideational structures of world order. In these ways, the global system is now `going south'. All three main aspects of the global crisis provoke and require commensurate radical social and political responses and self-protective measures, not only to restore systemic stability but to transform the world system.     

Reframing Development in the Age of Vulnerability: from case studies of the Philippines and Trinidad to new measures of rootedness

This article argues that the contemporary triple crises of finance, food and environment, which have shaken the global economy since 2008, have exposed what should be seen as the Achilles heel of the dominant development theory and practice of the past 30 years: vulnerability. We argue that the crises not only add momentum to the delegitimisation of the old model, but also offer legitimacy for paths that lessen vulnerability and increase what we call ‘rootedness’ (a term we prefer to ‘resilience’ or ‘sustainability’). After offering a brief history of ‘vulnerable’ development and reviewing the literature on vulnerability from the development, economic and environmental fields, we use this vulnerability versus rootedness frame to present analysis from our field work in two ‘vulnerable’ countries: the Philippines and Trinidad and Tobago. Integrating the article's sections, we then propose a new interdisciplinary framework for development that builds on and supplements the human rights, ecological, equity and democracy frames: the notion of ‘rootedness’ at the household, local and country levels.     

Africa's prospects and South Africa's leadership potential in the emerging markets century

This article examines Africa's role in an evolving international system where powerful emerging markets, such as bric, together with established powers are shaping economic trajectories. The specific focus is on South Africa as an aspiring leader on the African continent, and on its potential for becoming an emerging market shaping the global order together with bric and the West. It is unclear whether a changing global economy in which the postcolonial world plays a greater role will result in improved developmental prospects for Africans as African countries gradually reorient themselves from the West to the South, or whether relations with emerging markets will resemble neo-colonial ties with the West. South Africa's structural weakness, stemming from serious domestic problems of a social, political and economic nature, threatens to undermine its standing in Africa and its emerging market status.     

Is There a Culture or Religion of Torture? International Support for Brutal Treatment of Suspected Terrorists

Do certain cultures or religions predispose citizens to support the deployment of torture against suspected terrorists? Based on an international survey of 31 different countries, we examine how religion and culture affect respondents' position on torture. We find that at the individual level, the nonreligious are resolutely opposed to torture, and that Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Jews, and other faiths are more supportive. Among world cultures, Muslim/African cultures are most opposed to the torture of terrorists, while Confucian, English-speaking, and South Asian cultures are the most supportive of it. We also find that the use of torture has less support in countries that are suffering from terrorism, once religion and culture are considered.     

Washington's Growth and Opportunity Act or Beijing's ‘Overarching Brilliance’: will African governments choose neither?

Growing criticism of Chinese engagement in Africa centres on the risk to African development posed by China's aggressive export policies and the threat to the Washington Consensus and African governance posed by China's ‘non-interference’ approach to engagement. This article challenges both these assumptions. The growth of Chinese trade has a wide range of impacts, depending on the sector in question, and the current terms of trade Washington extends to Africa under the auspices of the agoa do not result in uniformly beneficial effects. With regard to African governance, it is argued that the ‘Washington Consensus’ has been based on competing and often muddled perceptions of US national interest. This fact tempers the regret felt at Washington's loss of influence over the good governance agenda. Evidence is provided to show that China can work within properly regulated countries and industries, if the African governments in question can provide fair, efficient and transparent environments in which to operate.     

Microfinance and Poverty in Bolivia

Both in its institutional range and in its penetration of financial markets, the microfinance sector in Bolivia rivals any in the world, and has played a major part in extracting the macro-economy from meltdown since the mid-1980s. We seek specifically to assess its impact on poverty, and do this through small-sample surveys on four microfinance institutions, two urban and two rural, using a range of poverty concepts: income (generated both through the borrower's enterprise and through the labour market), asset holdings and diversity, and various measures of vulnerability. All the institutions studied had, on balance, positive impacts on income and asset levels, with income impacts correlating negatively with income on account of poor households choosing to invest in low-risk, low-return assets. Microfinance may, however, augment vulnerability: average debt-service ratios of microfinance clients are disturbingly high, and if the coping mechanisms used by borrowers fail, borrowers may be forced out of the microfinance system, possibly resulting in decapitalisation and impoverishment. Poorer households are more restricted in their choice of coping strategy, and many as a consequence 'choose' coping strategies more likely to jeopardise their long-term income prospects, in particular asset sales and cuts in children's schooling. The more successful low-income borrowers are those who have voluntary savings deposits and do not rush into fixed capital purchases too early: collapse back into poverty is associated with multiple crises and the failure of one or more 'safety nets', in particular of one or more 'safety nets', in particular support from a member's solidarity group. The following actions appear to be promising for the further reduction of poverty in Bolivia: stronger efforts to mobilise rural savings, removal of lower limits on loan size, and the introduction of appropriate insurance mechanisms. In comparison with other anti-poverty measures, microfinance appears to be successful and relative cheap at reducing the poverty of those close to the poverty line, but ineffective, by comparison with labour-market and infrastructural measures, in reducing extreme poverty.